Articles | Volume 26, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 17 Aug 2022
| 17 Aug 2022
Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Tongtiegang Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) and Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) and Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
Yu Tian
Department of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research of China, Beijing, China
Denghua Yan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research of China, Beijing, China
Weixin Xu
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China
Huayang Cai
School of Marine Engineering and Technology, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China
Jiabiao Wang
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) and Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
Xiaohong Chen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) and Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
Related authors
Tongtiegang Zhao, Zexin Chen, Yu Tian, Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3597–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The local performance plays a critical part in practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. This paper develops a decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow analysis at different timescales. The reanalysis is observed to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. Also, the local performance is shown to be primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality, longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope.
Qiang Li and Tongtiegang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1449, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the effect of the water balance constraint on the robustness of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network in learning rainfall-runoff relationships. Through large-sample tests, it is found that incorporating this constraint into the LSTM improves the robustness, while the improvement tends to decrease as the amount of training data increases. The results point to the compensation effects between training data and process knowledge on the LSTM’s performance.
Qiang Li and Tongtiegang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2841, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The lack of physical mechanism is a critical issue for the use of popular deep learning models. This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the fundamental mass balance constraint for deep learning-based rainfall-runoff prediction. The robustness against data sparsity, random parameters initialization and contrasting climate conditions are detailed. The results highlight that the water balance constraint evidently improves the robustness in particular when there is limited training data.
Huayang Cai, Bo Li, Junhao Gu, Tongtiegang Zhao, and Erwan Garel
Ocean Sci., 19, 603–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For many problems concerning water resource utilization in estuaries, it is essential to be able to express observed salinity distributions based on simple theoretical models. In this study, we propose an analytical salt intrusion model inspired from a theory for predictions of flood hydrographs in watersheds. The newly developed model can be well calibrated using a minimum of three salinity measurements along the estuary and has been successfully applied in 21 estuaries worldwide.
Huayang Cai, Hao Yang, Pascal Matte, Haidong Pan, Zhan Hu, Tongtiegang Zhao, and Guangliang Liu
Ocean Sci., 18, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying spatial–temporal water level dynamics is essential for water resources management in estuaries. In this study, we propose a simple yet powerful regression model to examine the influence of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on the spatial–temporal water level dynamics within the Yangtze River estuary. The presented method is particularly useful for determining scientific strategies for sustainable water resources management in dam-controlled estuaries worldwide.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Quanxi Shao, Tongbi Tu, Yu Tian, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection using the coefficient of determination. Three cases of attribution are effectively facilitated, which are significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Wei Zhang, Yongyong Zhang, Zhiyong Liu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, 2020
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Q. J. Wang, Senlin Zhou, and Paul Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two weeks' delay. Timelier forecast release will enhance forecast value and enable sub-seasonal forecasting. The bureau's forecasting approach is modified to allow timelier forecast release, and changes in reliability and skill are quantified. The results are combined with insights into the forecast production process to recommend a more flexible forecasting system to better meet the needs of users.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Zexin Chen, Yu Tian, Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3597–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The local performance plays a critical part in practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. This paper develops a decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow analysis at different timescales. The reanalysis is observed to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. Also, the local performance is shown to be primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality, longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope.
Qiang Li and Tongtiegang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1449, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the effect of the water balance constraint on the robustness of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network in learning rainfall-runoff relationships. Through large-sample tests, it is found that incorporating this constraint into the LSTM improves the robustness, while the improvement tends to decrease as the amount of training data increases. The results point to the compensation effects between training data and process knowledge on the LSTM’s performance.
Qiang Li and Tongtiegang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2841, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The lack of physical mechanism is a critical issue for the use of popular deep learning models. This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the fundamental mass balance constraint for deep learning-based rainfall-runoff prediction. The robustness against data sparsity, random parameters initialization and contrasting climate conditions are detailed. The results highlight that the water balance constraint evidently improves the robustness in particular when there is limited training data.
Huayang Cai, Bo Li, Junhao Gu, Tongtiegang Zhao, and Erwan Garel
Ocean Sci., 19, 603–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For many problems concerning water resource utilization in estuaries, it is essential to be able to express observed salinity distributions based on simple theoretical models. In this study, we propose an analytical salt intrusion model inspired from a theory for predictions of flood hydrographs in watersheds. The newly developed model can be well calibrated using a minimum of three salinity measurements along the estuary and has been successfully applied in 21 estuaries worldwide.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Baisha Weng, Zhaoyu Dong, Yuheng Yang, Denghua Yan, Mengyu Li, and Yuhang Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1290, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The study selected a structural equation model to construct the turnover rate of amino sugars with soil physicochemical properties and extracellular enzymes under the warming and increased precipitation scenarios. The results of this study answer the mechanism of action of warming and precipitation on the effect of soil amino sugars which will play an important scientific and technical support role in the development of plateau agriculture and carbon and nitrogen cycles.
Huayang Cai, Hao Yang, Pascal Matte, Haidong Pan, Zhan Hu, Tongtiegang Zhao, and Guangliang Liu
Ocean Sci., 18, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying spatial–temporal water level dynamics is essential for water resources management in estuaries. In this study, we propose a simple yet powerful regression model to examine the influence of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on the spatial–temporal water level dynamics within the Yangtze River estuary. The presented method is particularly useful for determining scientific strategies for sustainable water resources management in dam-controlled estuaries worldwide.
Erwan Garel, Ping Zhang, and Huayang Cai
Ocean Sci., 17, 1605–1621, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding tidal hydrodynamics is essential for water resources management in estuarine environments. In this study, we propose an analytical model to examine the fortnightly water level variations due to tidal motions alone in tide-dominated estuaries. Details of the analytical model show that changes in the mean depth or length of semi-arid estuaries affect the fortnightly tide amplitude, which has significant potential impacts on the estuarine ecosystem management.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Quanxi Shao, Tongbi Tu, Yu Tian, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection using the coefficient of determination. Three cases of attribution are effectively facilitated, which are significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Hailong Wang, Kai Duan, Bingjun Liu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4741–4758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4741-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using remote sensing and reanalysis data, we examined the relationships between vegetation development and water resource availability in a humid subtropical basin. We found overall increases in total water storage and surface greenness and vegetation production, and the changes were particularly profound in cropland-dominated regions. Correlation analysis implies water availability leads the variations in greenness and production, and irrigation may improve production during dry periods.
Jun Li, Zhaoli Wang, Xushu Wu, Jakob Zscheischler, Shenglian Guo, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1587–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a daily-scale index, termed the standardized compound drought and heat index (SCDHI), to measure the key features of compound dry-hot conditions. SCDHI can not only monitor the long-term compound dry-hot events, but can also capture such events at sub-monthly scale and reflect the related vegetation activity impacts. The index can provide a new tool to quantify sub-monthly characteristics of compound dry-hot events, which are vital for releasing early and timely warning.
Leicheng Guo, Chunyan Zhu, Huayang Cai, Zheng Bing Wang, Ian Townend, and Qing He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-75, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Overtide is a shallow water tidal component and its interaction with astronomical tides induces tidal wave deformation, which is an important process that controls sediment transport. We use a numerical tidal model to examine overtide changes in estuaries under varying river discharges and find spatially nonlinear changes and the threshold of an intermediate river that benefits maximal overtide generation. The findings inform management of sediment transport and flooding risk in estuaries.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Zhiyong Liu, and Huayang Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5859–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, 2020
Huayang Cai, Ping Zhang, Erwan Garel, Pascal Matte, Shuai Hu, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the morphological changes in estuaries due to natural processes and human interventions is especially important with regard to sustainable water management and ecological impacts on the estuarine environment. In this contribution, we explore the morphological evolution in tide-dominated estuaries by means of a novel analytical approach using the observed water levels along the channel. The method could serve as a useful tool to understand the evolution of estuarine morphology.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Xuezhi Tan, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1347–1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, 2020
Tongtiegang Zhao, Wei Zhang, Yongyong Zhang, Zhiyong Liu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, 2020
Denghua Yan, Baisha Weng, Tianling Qin, Hao Wang, Xiangnan Li, Yuheng Yang, Kun Wang, Zhenyu Lv, Jianwei Wang, Meng Li, Shan He, Fang Liu, Shanshan Liu, Wuxia Bi, Ting Xu, Xiaoqing Shi, Zihao Man, Congwu Sun, Meiyu Liu, Mengke Wang, Yinghou Huang, Haoyu Long, Yongzhen Niu, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Mohammed Gedefaw, Abel Girma, and Asaminew Abiyu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-224, 2020
Publication in ESSD not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a complete data set of global water withdrawal. There is almost no continuous long series of water withdrawal data globally. Moreover, most of the data released by international organizations is based on national scale and lacks finer regional data. Therefore, appropriate methods are needed to modify the data. This dataset has important practical significance in promoting the harmonious and sustainable development of economy and resources of the world.
Huayang Cai, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Erwan Garel, Xianyi Zhang, Leicheng Guo, Min Zhang, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2779–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tide–river dynamics play an essential role in large-scale river deltas as they exert a tremendous impact on delta morphodynamics, salt intrusion and deltaic ecosystems. For the first time, we illustrate that there is a critical river discharge, beyond which tidal damping is reduced with increasing river discharge, and we explore the underlying mechanism using an analytical model. The results are useful for guiding sustainable water management and sediment transport in tidal rivers.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Xuezhi Tan, Chong-Yu Xu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A calibration scheme was developed for the dynamics of hydrological model parameters. Furthermore, a novel tool was designed to assess the reliability of the dynamized parameter set. The tool evaluates the convergence processes for global optimization algorithms using violin plots (ECP-VP). The results showed that the developed calibration scheme overcame the salient issues for poor model performance. Besides, the ECP-VP tool effectively assessed the reliability of the dynamic parameter set.
Wuxia Bi, Baisha Weng, Denghua Yan, Meng Li, Zhilei Yu, Lin Wang, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-185, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on solving the
land useand
water usecompetitions between lake-marsh wetland system and its surrounding socio-economic system, also inside the system. An optimal lake-marsh pattern determination method was proposed on considering the ecological services values and water shortage amount. We explored the optimal lake-marsh pattern in both annual and monthly scales. This study could provide references for the ecological spatial management and ecological water control.
Huayang Cai, Xianyi Zhang, Min Zhang, Leicheng Guo, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Ocean Sci., 15, 583–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the impacts of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on tide–river dynamics and concluded that the strongest impacts occurred during autumn and winter due to the TGD's operation. The results obtained will hopefully enhance our understanding of the impacts of large-scale human interventions on estuarine hydrodynamics and guide effective and sustainable water management in the Yangtze River estuary and other estuaries with substantial freshwater discharge.
Xinjun Tu, Yiliang Du, Vijay P. Singh, Xiaohong Chen, Kairong Lin, and Haiou Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5175–5189, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
For given frequencies of precipitation of a large region, design water demands of irrigation of the entire region among three methods, i.e., equalized frequency, typical year and most-likely weight function, slightly differed, but their alterations in sub-regions were complicated. A design procedure using the most-likely weight function in association with a high-dimensional copula, which built a linkage between regional frequency and sub-regional frequency of precipitation, is recommended.
Jia Liu, Jiyang Tian, Denghua Yan, Chuanzhe Li, Fuliang Yu, and Feifei Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4329–4348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4329-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4329-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Both radar reflectivity and GTS data are good choices for assimilation in improving high-resolution rainfall of the NWP systems, which always fails in providing satisfactory rainfall products for hydrological use. Simultaneously assimilating GTS and radar data always performs better than assimilating radar data alone. The assimilation efficiency of the GTS data is higher than both radar reflectivity and radial velocity considering the number of data assimilated and its effect.
Huayang Cai, Marco Toffolon, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Qingshu Yang, and Erwan Garel
Ocean Sci., 14, 769–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-769-2018, 2018
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
Jiyang Tian, Jia Liu, Denghua Yan, Chuanzhe Li, and Fuliang Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-563-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-563-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately simulating and predicting the precipitation by numerical weather prediction is a difficult task for medium-sized catchments in semi-humid regions. This study shows that using multiphysics ensembles is a good method to reduce the uncertainties of rainfall simulation. This paper provides more guidance for choosing the physical parameterizations for accurate rainfall simulations of different storm types in semi-humid regions.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Q. J. Wang, Senlin Zhou, and Paul Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two weeks' delay. Timelier forecast release will enhance forecast value and enable sub-seasonal forecasting. The bureau's forecasting approach is modified to allow timelier forecast release, and changes in reliability and skill are quantified. The results are combined with insights into the forecast production process to recommend a more flexible forecasting system to better meet the needs of users.
B. S. Weng, D. H. Yan, H. Wang, J. H. Liu, Z. Y. Yang, T. L. Qin, and J. Yin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1889–1906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1889-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1889-2015, 2015
H. Cai, H. H. G. Savenije, and C. Jiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4153–4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4153-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4153-2014, 2014
H. Cai, H. H. G. Savenije, and M. Toffolon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-287-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-287-2014, 2014
B. B. Huang, D. H. Yan, H. Wang, B. F. Cheng, and X. H. Cui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-14463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-14463-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
D. H. Yan, D. Wu, R. Huang, L. N. Wang, and G. Y. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2859–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions
Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020
Global-scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling
Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Unveiling hydrological dynamics in data-scarce regions: experiences from the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin
Technical note: Comparing three different methods for allocating river points to coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid cells
Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate
Diagnosing modeling errors in global terrestrial water storage interannual variability
Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent
Poor correlation between large-scale environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity: implications for water resource management and the freshwater planetary boundary
Accuracy of five ground heat flux empirical simulation methods in the surface-energy-balance-based remote-sensing evapotranspiration models
Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff
Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data
Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh
Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States
Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes
Inundation prediction in tropical wetlands from JULES-CaMa-Flood global land surface simulations
Soil moisture estimation in South Asia via assimilation of SMAP retrievals
Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle
The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations
Large-scale sensitivities of groundwater and surface water to groundwater withdrawal
A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models
A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods
Bright and blind spots of water research in Latin America and the Caribbean
Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters
Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management
Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling
Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review
Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River basin under climate change
Evaluation of 18 satellite- and model-based soil moisture products using in situ measurements from 826 sensors
The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach
Assessing global water mass transfers from continents to oceans over the period 1948–2016
Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model
The influence of assimilating leaf area index in a land surface model on global water fluxes and storages
Comparison of generalized non-data-driven lake and reservoir routing models for global-scale hydrologic forecasting of reservoir outflow at diurnal time steps
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future climate projections suggest that climate change will impact groundwater recharge, with its exact effects being uncertain due to incomplete understanding of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and recharge relations. We studied the effects of changes in the average, spread, and frequency of extreme events of rainfall and evapotranspiration on groundwater recharge. We found that increasing or decreasing the potential evaporation has the most dominant effect on groundwater recharge.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Omar V. Müller, Patrick C. McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2179–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a pioneering comprehensive integrated approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, we offer a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work was performed in order to precisely address a point that is often neglected by hydrologists: the allocation of points located on a river network to grid cells, which is often a mandatory step for hydrological modelling.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work, we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affects weather prediction.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Xiufeng He, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4551–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using evidence from meteorological stations, this study assessed the climatic, hydrological, and ecological aridity changes in global drylands and their associated mechanisms. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. This highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission enabled the quantification of water mass redistributions from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of GRACE satellite data shows here that slow changes in terrestrial water storage occurring over a few years to a decade are severely underestimated by global hydrological models. Several sources of errors may explain such biases, likely including the inaccurate representation of groundwater storage changes.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to improvements in the model characterization of water and energy fluxes. The results show that multi-objective autocalibration in combination with mathematical regularization is a powerful tool to improve land surface models. Using the direct measurement of turbulent fluxes as the target variable, parameter optimization matches simulations and observations of latent heat, whereas sensible heat is clearly biased.
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Zhaofei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground heat flux (G) accounts for a significant fraction of the surface energy balance (SEB), but there is insufficient research on these models compared with other flux. The accuracy of G simulation methods in the SEB-based remote sensing evapotranspiration models is evaluated. Results show that the accuracy of each method varied significantly at different sites and at half-hour intervals. Further improvement of G simulations is recommended for the remote sensing evapotranspiration modelers.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use three models to forecast river streamflow operationally for 13 months (September 2020 to October 2021) at 10 gauges in the western US. The first model is a state-of-the-art physics-based streamflow model (GloFAS). The second applies a bias-correction technique to GloFAS. The third is a type of neural network (an LSTM). We find that all three are capable of producing skilful forecasts but that the LSTM performs the best, with skilful 5 d forecasts at nine stations.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Jawairia A. Ahmad, Barton A. Forman, and Sujay V. Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2221–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data-scarce regions.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Andreas Güntner, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1089–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the effect of how vegetation is defined in a global hydrological model on the composition of total water storage (TWS). We compare two experiments, one with globally uniform and one with vegetation parameters that vary in space and time. While both experiments are constrained against observational data, we found a drastic change in the partitioning of TWS, highlighting the important role of the interaction between groundwater–soil moisture–vegetation in understanding TWS variations.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Alyssa J. DeVincentis, Hervé Guillon, Romina Díaz Gómez, Noelle K. Patterson, Francine van den Brandeler, Arthur Koehl, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Laura E. Garza-Díaz, Jennifer Gamez-Rodríguez, Erfan Goharian, and Samuel Sandoval Solis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4631–4650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Latin America and the Caribbean face many water-related stresses which are expected to worsen with climate change. To assess the vulnerability, we reviewed over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the regional landscape. Results reveal that the region’s inherent vulnerability is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on one country (Brazil).
Michiel Maertens, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sebastian Apers, Sujay V. Kumar, and Sarith P. P. Mahanama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4099–4125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we simulated the water balance over the South American Dry Chaco and assessed the impact of land cover changes thereon using three different land surface models. Our simulations indicated that different models result in a different partitioning of the total water budget, but all showed an increase in soil moisture and percolation over the deforested areas. We also found that, relative to independent data, no specific land surface model is significantly better than another.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water, energy and carbon cycle on land. Reliable ET estimates are key to understand droughts and flooding. We develop a new ET dataset, DOLCE V3, by merging multiple global ET datasets, and we show that it matches ET observations better and hence is more reliable than its parent datasets. Next, we use DOLCE V3 to examine recent changes in ET and find that ET has increased over most of the land, decreased in some regions, and has not changed in some other regions
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how deep learning models use different meteorological data sets in the task of (regional) rainfall–runoff modeling. We show that performance can be significantly improved when using different data products as input and further show how the model learns to combine those meteorological input differently across time and space. The results are carefully benchmarked against classical approaches, showing the supremacy of the presented approach.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, and Richard B. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1365–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Amid growing interest in using large-scale hydrological models for flood and drought monitoring and forecasting, it is important to evaluate common assumptions these models make. We investigated the representation of reservoirs as separate (non-coordinated) infrastructure. We found that not appropriately representing coordination and control processes can lead a hydrological model to simulate flood and drought events that would not occur given the coordinated emergency response in the basin.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Laura E. Queen, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a large ensemble of simulated flows throughout the northwestern USA, we compare daily flood statistics in the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–1999) periods and find that nearly all locations will experience an increase in flood magnitudes. The flood season expands significantly in many currently snow-dominant rivers, moving from only spring to both winter and spring. These results, properly extended, may help inform flood risk management and negotiations of the Columbia River Treaty.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Yared Abayneh Abebe, Amineh Ghorbani, Igor Nikolic, Natasa Manojlovic, Angelika Gruhn, and Zoran Vojinovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for Hamburg, Germany. It explores residents’ adaptation behaviour in relation to flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. We found that unique trajectories of adaptation behaviour emerge from different flood event series. Providing subsidies improves adaptation behaviour in the long run. The coupled modelling technique allows the role of individual measures in flood risk management to be examined.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Salma Tafasca, Agnès Ducharne, and Christian Valentin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3753–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In land surface models (LSMs), soil properties are inferred from soil texture. In this study, we use different input global soil texture maps from the literature to investigate the impact of soil texture on the simulated water budget in an LSM. The medium loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. However, the different soil texture maps result in similar water budgets because of their inherent similarities, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution.
Xinxuan Zhang, Viviana Maggioni, Azbina Rahman, Paul Houser, Yuan Xue, Timothy Sauer, Sujay Kumar, and David Mocko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3775–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the extent to which a land surface model can be optimized via the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) observations at the global scale. The model performance is evaluated by the model-estimated LAI and five water flux/storage variables. Results show the LAI assimilation reduces errors in the model-estimated LAI. The LAI assimilation also improves the five water variables under wet conditions, but some of the model-estimated variables tend to be worse under dry conditions.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mark D. Wahl, and Michael L. Follum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2711–2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global-scale hydrologic forecasts should account for attenuation through lakes and reservoirs. There is no consensus on the best approach to estimating this attenuation in large-spatial-scale hydrologic forecasts. This article investigates two existing parsimonious approaches to estimating reservoir outflows. We test each method at 60 reservoirs in the United States. We find that a method first developed in 2003 can provide a reasonable approximation of diurnal reservoir outflows.
Cited articles
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments: Value of Long-Term Forecasts to Reservoir Operations, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016.
Barnston, A. G., Tippett, M. K., L'Heureux, M. L., Li, S., and DeWitt, D. G.: Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 631–651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1, 2012.
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015.
Becker, E. J., Kirtman, B. P., L'Heureux, M., Muñoz, Á. G., and Pegion, K.: A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E973–E995, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0327.1, 2022.
Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model: Long-Range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019193, 2016.
Cai, W., Yang, K., Wu, L., Huang, G., Santoso, A., Ng, B., Wang, G., and Yamagata, T.: Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 27–32, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1, 2021.
Cash, B. A., Manganello, J. V., and Kinter, J. L.: Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia, Clim. Dynam., 53, 7363–7380, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3841-4, 2019.
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V. B. S., Kousky, V. E., Wayne Higgins, R., and Janowiak, J. E.: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132, 2008.
Corti, S., Palmer, T., Balmaseda, M., Weisheimer, A., Drijfhout, S., Dunstone, N., Hazeleger, W., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., von Storch, J.-S., and Wouters, B.: Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment*, J. Climate, 28, 4454–4470, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1, 2015.
Climate Prediction Center: Niño3.4
index, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/, last access: 6 August 2022.
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J., Dunne, K. A., Ginoux, P., Gudgel, R., Hallberg, R. W., Harris, L., Harrison, M. J., Johnson, N., Kapnick, S. B., Lin, S., Lu, F., Malyshev, S., Milly, P. C., Murakami, H., Naik, V., Pascale, S., Paynter, D., Rosati, A., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Underwood, S., Wittenberg, A. T., Xiang, B., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Zhang, H., Zhang, L., and Zhao, M.: SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001895, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001895, 2020.
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R.: Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical Accuracy, Stat. Sci., 1, 54–75, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013815, 1986.
Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E. M., Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 8, 14796, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796, 2017.
Hamlet, A. F. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, J. Water Res. Plan. Man., 125, 333–341, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), 1999.
Hamouda, M. E., Pasquero, C., and Tziperman, E.: Decoupling of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in a warmer climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 137–142, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00966-8, 2021.
He, X., Estes, L., Konar, M., Tian, D., Anghileri, D., Baylis, K., Evans, T. P., and Sheffield, J.: Integrated approaches to understanding and reducing drought impact on food security across scales, Curr. Opin. Env. Sust., 40, 43–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.09.006, 2019.
He, X., Bryant, B. P., Moran, T., Mach, K. J., Wei, Z., and Freyberg, D. L.: Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge, Sci. Adv., 7, eabe6025, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe6025, 2021.
Hidalgo, H. G. and Dracup, J. A.: ENSO and PDO Effects on Hydroclimatic Variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 5–23, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0005:EAPEOH>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Huang, Z. and Zhao, T.: Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes, WIREs Water, 9, e1580, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1580, 2022.
Huang, Z., Zhao, T., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Jiang, T., Lin, K., and Chen, X.: Differing roles of base and fast flow in ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting: An experimental investigation, J. Hydrol., 591, 125272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125272, 2020.
IRI Data Library: forecast and observation datasets, https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/, last access: 6 August 2022.
Johnson, S. J., Stockdale, T. N., Ferranti, L., Balmaseda, M. A., Molteni, F., Magnusson, L., Tietsche, S., Decremer, D., Weisheimer, A., Balsamo, G., Keeley, S. P. E., Mogensen, K., Zuo, H., and Monge-Sanz, B. M.: SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, 2019.
Khan, M. Z. K., Sharma, A., and Mehrotra, R.: Global seasonal precipitation forecasts using improved sea surface temperature predictions: Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 4773–4785, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025953, 2017.
Kirtman, B. P., Min, D., Infanti, J. M., Kinter, J. L., Paolino, D. A., Zhang, Q., van den Dool, H., Saha, S., Mendez, M. P., Becker, E., Peng, P., Tripp, P., Huang, J., DeWitt, D. G., Tippett, M. K., Barnston, A. G., Li, S., Rosati, A., Schubert, S. D., Rienecker, M., Suarez, M., Li, Z. E., Marshak, J., Lim, Y.-K., Tribbia, J., Pegion, K., Merryfield, W. J., Denis, B., and Wood, E. F.: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 585–601, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1, 2014.
Li, H., Luo, L., Wood, E. F., and Schaake, J.: The role of initial conditions and forcing uncertainties in seasonal hydrologic forecasting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010969, 2009.
Li, J., Wang, Z., Wu, X., Xu, C., Guo, S., Chen, X., and Zhang, Z.: Robust Meteorological Drought Prediction Using Antecedent SST Fluctuations and Machine Learning, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029413, 2021.
Li, W., Duan, Q., Miao, C., Ye, A., Gong, W., and Di, Z.: A review on statistical postprocessing methods for hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting, WIREs Water, 4, e1246, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1246, 2017.
Lim, E.-P., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M. C., Marshall, A. G., King, A., Zhu, H., Hendon, H. H., de Burgh-Day, C., Trewin, B., Griffiths, M., Ramchurn, A., and Young, G.: Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña, Sci. Rep.-UK, 11, 18423, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97690-w, 2021.
Lin, H., Merryfield, W. J., Muncaster, R., Smith, G. C., Markovic, M., Dupont, F., Roy, F., Lemieux, J.-F., Dirkson, A., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W.-S., Charron, M., and Erfani, A.: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2), Weather Forecast., 35, 1317–1343, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0259.1, 2020.
Liu, X., Zhang, L., She, D., Chen, J., Xia, J., Chen, X., and Zhao, T.: Postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on multisource precipitation in Ganjiang River basin, China, J. Hydrol., 605, 127323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127323, 2022.
Ma, F., Ye, A., Deng, X., Zhou, Z., Liu, X., Duan, Q., Xu, J., Miao, C., Di, Z., and Gong, W.: Evaluating the skill of NMME seasonal precipitation ensemble predictions for 17 hydroclimatic regions in continental China: Evaluating the Skill of NMME Seasonal Precipitation Predictions, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 132–144, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4333, 2016.
Madadgar, S., AghaKouchak, A., Shukla, S., Wood, A. W., Cheng, L., Hsu, K.-L., and Svoboda, M.: A hybrid statistical-dynamical framework for meteorological drought prediction: Application to the southwestern United States: A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Drought Prediction Framework, Water Resour. Res., 52, 5095–5110, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018547, 2016.
Mason, S. J. and Goddard, L.: Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 619–638, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0619:PPAAWE>2.3.CO;2, 2001.
Mei, L., Rozanov, V., Ritter, C., Heinold, B., Jiao, Z., Vountas, M., and Burrows, J. P.: Retrieval of Aerosol Optical Thickness in the Arctic Snow-Covered Regions Using Passive Remote Sensing: Impact of Aerosol Typing and Surface Reflection Model, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 58, 5117–5131, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.2972339, 2020.
Merryfield, W. J., Lee, W.-S., Boer, G. J., Kharin, V. V., Scinocca, J. F., Flato, G. M., Ajayamohan, R. S., Fyfe, J. C., Tang, Y., and Polavarapu, S.: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2910–2945, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1, 2013.
Peel, M. C., McMahon, T. A., and Finlayson, B. L.: Continental differences in the variability of annual runoff-update and reassessment, J. Hydrol., 295, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.004, 2004.
Peng, B., Guan, K., Pan, M., and Li, Y.: Benefits of Seasonal Climate Prediction and Satellite Data for Forecasting U. S. Maize Yield, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 9662–9671, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079291, 2018.
Pham, H. (Ed.): Springer Handbook of Engineering Statistics, Springer, London, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84628-288-1, 2006.
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H., Iredell, M., Ek, M., Meng, J., Yang, R., Mendez, M. P., van den Dool, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, W., Chen, M., and Becker, E.: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1, 2014.
Schepen, A., Everingham, Y., and Wang, Q. J.: On the Joint Calibration of Multivariate Seasonal Climate Forecasts from GCMs, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 437–456, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0046.1, 2020.
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., Chaney, N., Guan, K., Sadri, S., Yuan, X., Olang, L., Amani, A., Ali, A., Demuth, S., and Ogallo, L.: A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 861–882, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00124.1, 2014.
Slater, L. J., Villarini, G., and Bradley, A. A.: Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA, Clim. Dynam., 53, 7381–7396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3286-1, 2019.
Strazzo, S., Collins, D. C., Schepen, A., Wang, Q. J., Becker, E., and Jia, L.: Application of a Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System to Seasonal Prediction of North American Temperature and Precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 607–625, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0156.1, 2019.
Wanders, N., Bachas, A., He, X. G., Huang, H., Koppa, A., Mekonnen, Z. T., Pagán, B. R., Peng, L. Q., Vergopolan, N., Wang, K. J., Xiao, M., Zhan, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Wood, E. F.: Forecasting the Hydroclimatic Signature of the 2015/16 El Niño Event on the Western United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 177–186, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0230.1, 2017.
Webster, P. J. and Yang, S.: Monsoon and Enso:
Selectively Interactive Systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877–926, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711850705, 1992.
Wood, A. W. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1699–1712, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699, 2006.
Xu, L., Chen, N., Zhang, X., and Chen, Z.: A data-driven multi-model ensemble for deterministic and probabilistic precipitation forecasting at seasonal scale, Clim. Dynam., 54, 3355–3374, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05173-x, 2020.
Xu, W., Fletcher, T. D., Burns, M. J., and Cherqui, F.: Real Time Control of Rainwater Harvesting Systems: The Benefits of Increasing Rainfall Forecast Window, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2020WR027856, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027856, 2020.
Yang, S., Li, Z., Yu, J.-Y., Hu, X., Dong, W., and He, S.: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its impact in the changing climate, Natl. Sci. Rev., 5, 840–857, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwy046, 2018.
Yossef, N. C., Winsemius, H., Weerts, A., van Beek, R., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing: Skill of a Global Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting System, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4687–4699, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20350, 2013.
Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., and Liang, M.: Integrating weather and climate prediction: Toward seamless hydrologic forecasting: Seamless hydrologic forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5891–5896, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061076, 2014.
Yuan, X., Ma, F., Wang, L., Zheng, Z., Ma, Z., Ye, A., and Peng, S.: An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2437–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016, 2016.
Zhao, T., Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Schepen, A., Wood, A. W., Robertson, D. E., and Ramos, M.-H.: How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?, J. Climate, 30, 3185–3196, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0652.1, 2017.
Zhao, T., Wang, Q. J., and Schepen, A.: A Bayesian modelling approach to forecasting short-term reference crop evapotranspiration from GCM outputs, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 269–270, 88–101, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.003, 2019.
Zhao, T., Chen, H., Shao, Q., Tu, T., Tian, Y., and Chen, X.: Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, 2021.
Short summary
This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection. Specifically, the intersection operation of the coefficient of determination derives the overlapping information for GCM forecasts and the Niño3.4 index, and then the difference operation determines the differing information in GCM forecasts (Niño3.4 index) from the Niño3.4 index (GCM forecasts).
This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to...
