Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 May 2016
Research article |
| 26 May 2016
Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria
Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering,
TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Alfred Paul Blaschke
Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering,
TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Günter Blöschl
Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering,
TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Klaus Haslinger
Climate Research Department, Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria
Gerold Hepp
Institute for Water Quality, Resource and Waste
Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Gregor Laaha
Institute of Applied Statistics and Computing, University
of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna,
Austria
Wolfgang Schöner
Department of Geography and Regional Science, University
of Graz, Graz, Austria
Helene Trautvetter
Institute for Water Quality, Resource and Waste
Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Alberto Viglione
Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering,
TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Matthias Zessner
Institute for Water Quality, Resource and Waste
Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
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Our study investigates how snow melting affects droughts in Iran's Urmia Lake Basin, revealing that future droughts will likely become more severe due to reduced snowmelt and increased evaporation. This is crucial for understanding water availability in the region, affecting millions. We used advanced climate models and drought indices to predict changes, aiming to inform water management strategies.
Giulia Blandini, Francesco Avanzi, Simone Gabellani, Denise Ponziani, Hervé Stevenin, Sara Ratto, Luca Ferraris, and Alberto Viglione
The Cryosphere, 17, 5317–5333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5317-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5317-2023, 2023
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Automatic snow depth data are a valuable source of information for hydrologists, but they also tend to be noisy. To maximize the value of these measurements for real-world applications, we developed an automatic procedure to differentiate snow cover from grass or bare ground data, as well as to detect random errors. This procedure can enhance snow data quality, thus providing more reliable data for snow models.
Emanuele Mombrini, Stefania Tamea, Alberto Viglione, and Roberto Revelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-218, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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In north-western Italy overall drought conditions appear to have worsened over the last 60 years, due to both precipitation deficits and increased evapotranspiration caused by temperature increase. In addition to changes in drought conditions, changes in the characteristics of drought periods, both at a local and at a region-wide level, are found. Links between all the aforementioned changes and the terrain topography are highlited, finding generally worse conditions in lower lying areas.
Sonika Shahi, Jakob Abermann, Tiago Silva, Kirsty Langley, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Mikhail Mastepanov, and Wolfgang Schöner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 747–771, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, 2023
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This study highlights how the sea ice variability in the Greenland Sea affects the terrestrial climate and the surface mass changes of peripheral glaciers of the Zackenberg region (ZR), Northeast Greenland, combining model output and observations. Our results show that the temporal evolution of sea ice influences the climate anomaly magnitude in the ZR. We also found that the changing temperature and precipitation patterns due to sea ice variability can affect the surface mass of the ice cap.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
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Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
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A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2019–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, 2023
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In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes so that return periods used as a measure of event severity will be inaccurate. We propose a novel mixed copula estimator that is shown to outperform previous calculation methods. The new method is highly relevant for a wide range of European river flow regimes and should be used by default.
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
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The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 689–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, 2023
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Knowing the severity of an extreme event is of particular importance to hydrology and water policies. In this paper we propose a mixed distribution approach for low flows. It provides one consistent approach to quantify the severity of summer, winter, and annual low flows based on their respective annualities (or return periods). We show that the new method is much more accurate than existing methods and should therefore be used by engineers and water agencies.
Moritz Buchmann, Gernot Resch, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 17, 653–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, 2023
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Our current knowledge of spatial and temporal snow depth trends is based almost exclusively on time series of non-homogenised observational data. However, like other long-term series from observations, they are susceptible to inhomogeneities that can affect the trends and even change the sign. To assess the relevance of homogenisation for daily snow depths, we investigated its impact on trends and changes in extreme values of snow indices between 1961 and 2021 in the Swiss observation network.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
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There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5015–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022, 2022
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There is serious concern that river floods are increasing. Starting from explanations discussed in public, the article addresses three hypotheses: land-use change, hydraulic structures, and climate change increase floods. This review finds that all three changes have the potential to not only increase floods, but also to reduce them. It is crucial to consider all three factors of change in flood risk management and communicate them to the general public in a nuanced way.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4553–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, 2022
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Our study uses a statistical boosting model for estimating low flows on a monthly basis, which can be applied to estimate low flows at sites without measurements. We use an extensive dataset of 260 stream gauges in Austria for model development. As we are specifically interested in low-flow events, our method gives specific weight to such events. We found that our method can considerably improve the predictions of low-flow events and yields accurate estimates of the seasonal low-flow variation.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Thomas Goelles, Tobias Hammer, Stefan Muckenhuber, Birgit Schlager, Jakob Abermann, Christian Bauer, Víctor J. Expósito Jiménez, Wolfgang Schöner, Markus Schratter, Benjamin Schrei, and Kim Senger
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 247–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-247-2022, 2022
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We propose a newly developed modular MObile LIdar SENsor System (MOLISENS) to enable new applications for small industrial light detection and ranging (lidar) sensors. MOLISENS supports both monitoring of dynamic processes and mobile mapping applications. The mobile mapping application of MOLISENS has been tested under various conditions, and results are shown from two surveys in the Lurgrotte cave system in Austria and a glacier cave in Longyearbreen on Svalbard.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Shengping Wang, Borbala Szeles, Carmen Krammer, Elmar Schmaltz, Kepeng Song, Yifan Li, Zhiqiang Zhang, Günter Blöschl, and Peter Strauss
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3021–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3021-2022, 2022
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This study explored the quantitative contribution of agricultural intensification and climate change to the sediment load of a small agricultural watershed. Rather than a change in climatic conditions, changes in the land structure notably altered sediment concentrations under high-flow conditions, thereby contributing most to the increase in annual sediment loads. More consideration of land structure improvement is required when combating the transfer of soil from land to water.
Moritz Buchmann, John Coll, Johannes Aschauer, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Gernot Resch, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 16, 2147–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, 2022
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Knowledge about inhomogeneities in a data set is important for any subsequent climatological analysis. We ran three well-established homogenization methods and compared the identified break points. By only treating breaks as valid when detected by at least two out of three methods, we enhanced the robustness of our results. We found 45 breaks within 42 of 184 investigated series; of these 70 % could be explained by events recorded in the station history.
Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2469–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2469-2022, 2022
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Sound understanding of how floods come about allows for the development of more reliable flood management tools that assist in mitigating their negative impacts. This article reviews river flood generation processes and flow paths across space scales, starting from water movement in the soil pores and moving up to hillslopes, catchments, regions and entire continents. To assist model development, there is a need to learn from observed patterns of flood generation processes at all spatial scales.
Rui Tong, Juraj Parajka, Borbála Széles, Isabella Greimeister-Pfeil, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jürgen Komma, Peter Valent, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1779–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1779-2022, 2022
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The role and impact of using additional data (other than runoff) for the prediction of daily hydrographs in ungauged basins are not well understood. In this study, we assessed the model performance in terms of runoff, soil moisture, and snow cover predictions with the existing regionalization approaches. Results show that the best transfer methods are the similarity and the kriging approaches. The performance of the transfer methods differs between lowland and alpine catchments.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, 2022
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This study aims to predict long-term averages of low flow on a hydrologically diverse dataset in Austria. We compared seven statistical learning methods and included a backward variable selection approach. We found that separating the low-flow processes into winter and summer low flows leads to good performance for all the models. Variable selection results in more parsimonious and more interpretable models. Linear approaches for prediction and variable selection are sufficient for our dataset.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
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The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
David Lun, Alberto Viglione, Miriam Bertola, Jürgen Komma, Juraj Parajka, Peter Valent, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5535–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5535-2021, 2021
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We investigate statistical properties of observed flood series on a European scale. There are pronounced regional patterns, for instance: regions with strong Atlantic influence show less year-to-year variability in the magnitude of observed floods when compared with more arid regions of Europe. The hydrological controls on the patterns are quantified and discussed. On the European scale, climate seems to be the dominant driver for the observed patterns.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, 2021
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The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Concetta Di Mauro, Renaud Hostache, Patrick Matgen, Ramona Pelich, Marco Chini, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Nancy K. Nichols, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4081–4097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4081-2021, 2021
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This study evaluates how the sequential assimilation of flood extent derived from synthetic aperture radar data can help improve flood forecasting. In particular, we carried out twin experiments based on a synthetically generated dataset with controlled uncertainty. Our empirical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed data assimilation framework, as forecasting errors are substantially reduced as a result of the assimilation.
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
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The R programming language has become an important tool for many applications in hydrology. In this study, we provide an analysis of some of the R tools providing hydrological models. In total, two aspects are uniformly investigated, namely the conceptualisation of the models and the practicality of their implementation for end-users. These comparisons aim at easing the choice of R tools for users and at improving their usability for hydrology modelling to support more transferable research.
Lovrenc Pavlin, Borbála Széles, Peter Strauss, Alfred Paul Blaschke, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2327–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2327-2021, 2021
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We compared the dynamics of streamflow, groundwater and soil moisture to investigate how different parts of an agricultural catchment in Lower Austria are connected. Groundwater is best connected around the stream and worse uphill, where groundwater is deeper. Soil moisture connectivity increases with increasing catchment wetness but is not influenced by spatial position in the catchment. Groundwater is more connected to the stream on the seasonal scale compared to the event scale.
Rui Tong, Juraj Parajka, Andreas Salentinig, Isabella Pfeil, Jürgen Komma, Borbála Széles, Martin Kubáň, Peter Valent, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Wolfgang Wagner, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1389–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1389-2021, 2021
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We used a new and experimental version of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil water index data set and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) C6 snow cover products for multiple objective calibrations of the TUWmodel in 213 catchments of Austria. Combined calibration to runoff, satellite soil moisture, and snow cover improves runoff (40 % catchments), soil moisture (80 % catchments), and snow (~ 100 % catchments) simulation compared to traditional calibration to runoff only.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021
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We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
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The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
Mattia Neri, Juraj Parajka, and Elena Toth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5149–5171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, 2020
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One of the most informative ways to gain information on ungauged river sections is through the implementation of a rainfall-runoff model, exploiting the information collected in gauged catchments in the study area. This study analyses how the performances of different model regionalisation approaches are influenced by the informative content of the available regional data set, in order to identify the methods that are more suitable for the data availability in the region.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, 2020
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Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Doris Duethmann, Günter Blöschl, and Juraj Parajka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3493–3511, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020, 2020
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We investigate why a conceptual hydrological model failed to correctly predict observed discharge changes in response to increasing precipitation and air temperature in 156 Austrian catchments. Simulations indicate that poor model performance is related to two problems, namely a model structure that neglects changes in vegetation dynamics and inhomogeneities in precipitation data caused by changes in stations density with time. Other hypotheses did not improve simulated discharge changes.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, David Lun, Julia Hall, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020
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We investigate changes that occurred in small vs. big flood events and in small vs. large catchments across Europe over 5 decades. Annual maximum discharge series between 1960 and 2010 from 2370 gauges in Europe are analysed. Distinctive patterns of flood regime change are identified for large regions across Europe, which depend on flood magnitude and catchment size.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
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Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Kristyna Falatkova, Miroslav Šobr, Anton Neureiter, Wolfgang Schöner, Bohumír Janský, Hermann Häusler, Zbyněk Engel, and Vojtěch Beneš
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 301–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-301-2019, 2019
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In the last 50 years the Adygine glacier has been subject to relatively fast recession comparable to other glaciers in Tien Shan. As a consequence, a three-level cascade of glacial lakes formed, two of which were categorised as having medium outburst susceptibility. By 2050, the glacier is expected to have shrunk to 56–73 % of its 2012 extent. Further development of the site will result in formation of new lakes and probably also increase of outburst susceptibility due to permafrost degradation.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
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We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Christian Reszler, Jürgen Komma, Hermann Stadler, Elmar Strobl, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6147–6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, 2018
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Karst aquifers are vulnerable to pollution due to the typically short particle travel times. As the rainwater runs off on the surface it may collect contamination before infiltrating. This paper proposes a new field-mapping method for the ability of the landscape to produce and convey surface runoff. The method is based on local data collection in the field, and a visual assessment of surface runoff traces from a distance, which makes it suitable for larger areas than traditional field mapping.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Doris Duethmann and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5143–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5143-2018, 2018
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We analyze changes in catchment evaporation estimated from the water balances of 156 catchments in Austria over 1977–2014, as well as the possible causes of these changes. Our results show that catchment evaporation increased on average by 29 ± 14 mm yr−1 decade−1. We attribute this increase to changes in atmospheric demand (based on reference and pan evaporation), changes in vegetation (quantified by a satellite-based vegetation index), and changes in precipitation.
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
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This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
Julia Hall and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3883–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, 2018
Mehdi Rahmati, Lutz Weihermüller, Jan Vanderborght, Yakov A. Pachepsky, Lili Mao, Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, Niloofar Moosavi, Hossein Kheirfam, Carsten Montzka, Kris Van Looy, Brigitta Toth, Zeinab Hazbavi, Wafa Al Yamani, Ammar A. Albalasmeh, Ma'in Z. Alghzawi, Rafael Angulo-Jaramillo, Antônio Celso Dantas Antonino, George Arampatzis, Robson André Armindo, Hossein Asadi, Yazidhi Bamutaze, Jordi Batlle-Aguilar, Béatrice Béchet, Fabian Becker, Günter Blöschl, Klaus Bohne, Isabelle Braud, Clara Castellano, Artemi Cerdà, Maha Chalhoub, Rogerio Cichota, Milena Císlerová, Brent Clothier, Yves Coquet, Wim Cornelis, Corrado Corradini, Artur Paiva Coutinho, Muriel Bastista de Oliveira, José Ronaldo de Macedo, Matheus Fonseca Durães, Hojat Emami, Iraj Eskandari, Asghar Farajnia, Alessia Flammini, Nándor Fodor, Mamoun Gharaibeh, Mohamad Hossein Ghavimipanah, Teamrat A. Ghezzehei, Simone Giertz, Evangelos G. Hatzigiannakis, Rainer Horn, Juan José Jiménez, Diederik Jacques, Saskia Deborah Keesstra, Hamid Kelishadi, Mahboobeh Kiani-Harchegani, Mehdi Kouselou, Madan Kumar Jha, Laurent Lassabatere, Xiaoyan Li, Mark A. Liebig, Lubomír Lichner, María Victoria López, Deepesh Machiwal, Dirk Mallants, Micael Stolben Mallmann, Jean Dalmo de Oliveira Marques, Miles R. Marshall, Jan Mertens, Félicien Meunier, Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi, Binayak P. Mohanty, Mansonia Pulido-Moncada, Suzana Montenegro, Renato Morbidelli, David Moret-Fernández, Ali Akbar Moosavi, Mohammad Reza Mosaddeghi, Seyed Bahman Mousavi, Hasan Mozaffari, Kamal Nabiollahi, Mohammad Reza Neyshabouri, Marta Vasconcelos Ottoni, Theophilo Benedicto Ottoni Filho, Mohammad Reza Pahlavan-Rad, Andreas Panagopoulos, Stephan Peth, Pierre-Emmanuel Peyneau, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Jean Poesen, Manuel Pulido, Dalvan José Reinert, Sabine Reinsch, Meisam Rezaei, Francis Parry Roberts, David Robinson, Jesús Rodrigo-Comino, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Tadaomi Saito, Hideki Suganuma, Carla Saltalippi, Renáta Sándor, Brigitta Schütt, Manuel Seeger, Nasrollah Sepehrnia, Ehsan Sharifi Moghaddam, Manoj Shukla, Shiraki Shutaro, Ricardo Sorando, Ajayi Asishana Stanley, Peter Strauss, Zhongbo Su, Ruhollah Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, Encarnación Taguas, Wenceslau Geraldes Teixeira, Ali Reza Vaezi, Mehdi Vafakhah, Tomas Vogel, Iris Vogeler, Jana Votrubova, Steffen Werner, Thierry Winarski, Deniz Yilmaz, Michael H. Young, Steffen Zacharias, Yijian Zeng, Ying Zhao, Hong Zhao, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1237–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1237-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1237-2018, 2018
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This paper presents and analyzes a global database of soil infiltration data, the SWIG database, for the first time. In total, 5023 infiltration curves were collected across all continents in the SWIG database. These data were either provided and quality checked by the scientists or they were digitized from published articles. We are convinced that the SWIG database will allow for a better parameterization of the infiltration process in land surface models and for testing infiltration models.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
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The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, Juraj Parajka, and Alberto Viglione
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-356, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The main triggering mechanisms of flood events in different regions of Europe in the recent past have been identified and changes in their frequency in time have been investigated. Although the frequency of occurence of flooding hasn't changed continentally over a 50 years period, the frequency of heavy rain induced floods has been on the rise in Western Europe and the Alps while the frequency of floods caused by rain falling on snow covers has been declining in Norhern and Eastern Europe.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
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In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Matthias Schlögl and Gregor Laaha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-515-2017, 2017
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Different extreme value analysis approaches and fitting methods are compared with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. The merits of simultaneous analysis and combined plotting of various approaches are shown. The use of conditional performance metrics is proposed as an additional measure for assessing model goodness of fit. Findings of the study can be transferred to a range of environmental variables.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Fabian Martinez, Zahra Kalantari, and Alberto Viglione
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 225–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017, 2017
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There is still little understanding about the dynamics emerging from human–water interactions. As a result, policies and measures to reduce the impacts of floods and droughts often lead to unintended consequences. This paper proposes a research agenda to improve our understanding of human–water interactions, and presents an initial attempt to model the reciprocal effects between water management, droughts, and floods.
Monica Ionita, Lena M. Tallaksen, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge, Gregor Laaha, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Patrick Scholz, Silvia M. Chelcea, and Klaus Haslinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017
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This paper analyses the European summer drought of 2015 from a climatological perspective, including its origin and spatial and temporal development, and how it compares with the 2003 event. It discusses the main contributing factors controlling the occurrence and persistence of the event: temperature and precipitation anomalies, blocking episodes and sea surface temperatures. The results represent the outcome of a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO’s FRIEND-Water program.
Gregor Laaha, Juraj Parajka, Alberto Viglione, Daniel Koffler, Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Judith Zehetgruber, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3967–3985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3967-2016, 2016
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We present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information termed pillars. To illustrate the framework, three pillars are chosen: low-flow observation, climate observations and climate projections. By combining different sources of information we aim at more robust projections than obtained from each pillar alone. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria.
Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 373, 57–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-57-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-57-2016, 2016
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The spatial dimensions of water management heavily rely on accurate hydrological estimates in the landscape. This has been the focus of the Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the IAHS. The initiative has significantly advanced the science by furthering process understanding and estimation methods, and by synthesising the knowledge across processes, places and scales. Ongoing research on PUB is increasingly accounts for the feedbacks between humans and water in the landscape.
Ján Szolgay, Ladislav Gaál, Tomáš Bacigál, Silvia Kohnová, Kamila Hlavčová, Roman Výleta, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 373, 61–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-61-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-61-2016, 2016
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The design of hydraulic structures where storage is involved, requires estimates of joint probability distribution of flood volumes and flood peaks. The problem of choosing a joint distribution was so far approached more from a statistical point of view. In the paper the suitability of various copula models of this relationships was analysed with a particular focus on the type and seasonality of flood generation processes in a regional context.
Serena Ceola, Alberto Montanari, Juraj Parajka, Alberto Viglione, Günter Blöschl, and Francesco Laio
Proc. IAHS, 373, 131–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-131-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-131-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses the evolution in space and time of human presence in terms of settlements and associated economic activities along the Eastern Alpine river network in Austria and Italy by using high-resolution satellite images. To this aim, nocturnal artificial luminosity images and the geographical location of streams and rivers are employed. Our results reveal a significant increase of nighttime lights, and thus of human presence.
Ursula Weiser, Marc Olefs, Wolfgang Schöner, Gernot Weyss, and Bernhard Hynek
The Cryosphere, 10, 775–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-775-2016, 2016
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Geometric effects induced by tilt errors lead to erroneous measurement of snow albedo. These errors are corrected where tilts of sensors and slopes are unknown. Atmospheric parameters are taken from a nearby reference measurement or a radiation model. The developed model is fitted to the measured data to determine tilts and directions which vary daily due to changing atmospheric conditions and snow cover. The results show an obvious under- or overestimation of albedo depending on the slope direction.
Marc Olefs, Dietmar J. Baumgartner, Friedrich Obleitner, Christoph Bichler, Ulrich Foelsche, Helga Pietsch, Harald E. Rieder, Philipp Weihs, Florian Geyer, Thomas Haiden, and Wolfgang Schöner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, 2016
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We present the Austrian RADiation monitoring network (ARAD) that has been established to advance national climate monitoring and to support satellite retrieval, atmospheric modeling and solar energy techniques' development. Measurements cover the downwelling solar and thermal infrared radiation using instruments according to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards. The paper outlines the aims and scopes of ARAD, its measurement and calibration standards, methods and strategies.
Klaus Haslinger and Annett Bartsch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1211–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1211-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1211-2016, 2016
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Gridded fields of daily max. and min. temperatures for the Austrian domain are used to calculate ET0 based on a re-calibrated Hargreaves method. Newly derived, station-based calibration parameters, with Penman–Monteith ET0 as a reference, show a distinct altitude and seasonal dependence. Theses features are used to interpolate the new calibration values in space and time onto the temperature grids. The ET0 is then calculated based on the entire gridded temperature data starting back in 1961.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Christophe Cudennec, Denis Hughes, Alberto Montanari, Insa Neuweiler, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1081–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1081-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1081-2016, 2016
G. Blöschl, A. P. Blaschke, M. Broer, C. Bucher, G. Carr, X. Chen, A. Eder, M. Exner-Kittridge, A. Farnleitner, A. Flores-Orozco, P. Haas, P. Hogan, A. Kazemi Amiri, M. Oismüller, J. Parajka, R. Silasari, P. Stadler, P. Strauss, M. Vreugdenhil, W. Wagner, and M. Zessner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 227–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-227-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-227-2016, 2016
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This paper illustrates the experimental and monitoring set-up of the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen, Lower Austria, which allows meaningful hypothesis testing. The HOAL catchment features a range of different runoff generation processes (surface runoff, springs, tile drains, wetlands), and is convenient from a logistic point of view as all instruments can be connected to the power grid and a high-speed glassfibre local area network.
R. A. P. Perdigão and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 125–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-125-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-125-2015, 2015
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Flood regimes are behavioural patterns in floods across a wide variety of events under diverse circumstances. Our goal is to provide a unifying framework to address those regimes, how and why they change in space and time. For that purpose, we introduce a general model of flood regime dynamics under interacting natural factors and validate it with observations spanning a great diversity of hydrological settings. The model ultimately brings better flood understanding and forecasting abilities.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
J. Szolgay, L. Gaál, S. Kohnová, K. Hlavčová, R. Výleta, T. Bacigál, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 183–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-183-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-183-2015, 2015
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The design of hydraulic structures where storage is involved, requires estimates of flood volumes related to flood peaks. The problem was so far approached more from a statistical point of view. In the paper it was attempted to better understand the hydrological factors controlling this relationship. The suitability of various copula models of the relationships between flood peaks and flood volumes was analysed with a particular focus on the type and seasonality of flood generation processes.
J. Grames, A. Prskawetz, D. Grass, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 369, 3–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-3-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-3-2015, 2015
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Communities live close to rivers and therefore are confronted with the risk of flooding. It is important to understand the drivers and mechanisms of the consumption and investment behavior of these societies in order to identify an optimal investment strategy into flood defense capital. To solve such an economic optimization model we develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events and apply it to an existing socio-hydrology model.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
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We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1993–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, 2015
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Hydrological drought types in cold climates have complex causing factors and impacts. In Austria and Norway, a lack of snowmelt is mainly related to below-normal winter precipitation, and a lack of glaciermelt is mainly related to below-normal summer temperature. These and other hydrological drought types impacted hydropower production, water supply, and agriculture in Europe and the US in the recent and far past. For selected drought events in Norway impacts could be coupled to causing factors.
Z. H. He, J. Parajka, F. Q. Tian, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, 2014
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In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the snowmelt degree-day factor (DDFS) directly from MODIS snow covered area (SCA) and ground-based snow depth data without calibration. Snow density is estimated as the ratio between observed precipitation and changes in the snow volume for days with snow accumulation. DDFS values are estimated as the ratio between changes in the snow water equivalent and difference between the daily temperature and a threshold value for days with snowmelt.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
M. Exner-Kittridge, J. L. Salinas, and M. Zessner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2715–2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2715-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2715-2014, 2014
G. Blöschl, A. Bárdossy, D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. Littlewood, A. Montanari, and H. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2433–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, 2014
H. M. Holländer, H. Bormann, T. Blume, W. Buytaert, G. B. Chirico, J.-F. Exbrayat, D. Gustafsson, H. Hölzel, T. Krauße, P. Kraft, S. Stoll, G. Blöschl, and H. Flühler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2065–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2065-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2065-2014, 2014
A. Eder, M. Exner-Kittridge, P. Strauss, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1043–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1043-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1043-2014, 2014
S. Surer, J. Parajka, and Z. Akyurek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 763–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-763-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014
G. Blöschl, T. Nester, J. Komma, J. Parajka, and R. A. P. Perdigão
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5197–5212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5197-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5197-2013, 2013
S. E. Thompson, M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, 2013
G. Di Baldassarre, A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J. L. Salinas, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3295–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, 2013
J. L. Salinas, G. Laaha, M. Rogger, J. Parajka, A. Viglione, M. Sivapalan, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2637-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2637-2013, 2013
A. Viglione, J. Parajka, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, G. Laaha, M. Sivapalan, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2263–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2263-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2263-2013, 2013
J. Parajka, A. Viglione, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, M. Sivapalan, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1783–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1783-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
On the importance of discharge observation uncertainty when interpreting hydrological model performance
A data-centric perspective on the information needed for hydrological uncertainty predictions
A decomposition approach to evaluating the local performance of global streamflow reanalysis
How much water vapour does the Tibetan Plateau release into the atmosphere?
Technical note: Complexity–uncertainty curve (c-u-curve) – a method to analyse, classify and compare dynamical systems
Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Why do our rainfall–runoff models keep underestimating the peak flows?
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Pitfalls and a feasible solution for using KGE as an informal likelihood function in MCMC methods: DREAM(ZS) as an example
Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin
Guidance on evaluating parametric model uncertainty at decision-relevant scales
Quantifying input uncertainty in the calibration of water quality models: reordering errors via the secant method
Sequential data assimilation for real-time probabilistic flood inundation mapping
Key challenges facing the application of the conductivity mass balance method: a case study of the Mississippi River basin
Coupled machine learning and the limits of acceptability approach applied in parameter identification for a distributed hydrological model
A systematic assessment of uncertainties in large-scale soil loss estimation from different representations of USLE input factors – a case study for Kenya and Uganda
Technical note: Uncertainty in multi-source partitioning using large tracer data sets
Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming
A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation
Technical note: Analytical sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation of baseflow index calculated by a two-component hydrograph separation method with conductivity as a tracer
Understanding the water cycle over the upper Tarim Basin: retrospecting the estimated discharge bias to atmospheric variables and model structure
The effect of input data resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in a humid vegetated watershed
Parameter uncertainty analysis for an operational hydrological model using residual-based and limits of acceptability approaches
Technical note: Pitfalls in using log-transformed flows within the KGE criterion
Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty
Transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts
Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)
Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Consistency assessment of rating curve data in various locations using Bidirectional Reach (BReach)
The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes
Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting
Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding
Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales
Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model
Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals
Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty
Disentangling timing and amplitude errors in streamflow simulations
Reliability of lumped hydrological modeling in a semi-arid mountainous catchment facing water-use changes
Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
Accounting for dependencies in regionalized signatures for predictions in ungauged catchments
Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments
Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments
Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model
Uncertainty reduction and parameter estimation of a distributed hydrological model with ground and remote-sensing data
The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models
Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography
The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Jannis M. Hoch, Gemma Coxon, Nick C. van de Giesen, and Rolf W. Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5011–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, 2024
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For users of hydrological models, model suitability often hinges on how well simulated outputs match observed discharge. This study highlights the importance of including discharge observation uncertainty in hydrological model performance assessment. We highlight the need to account for this uncertainty in model comparisons and introduce a practical method suitable for any observational time series with available uncertainty estimates.
Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Sepp Hochreiter, and Daniel Klotz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4099–4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, 2024
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This work examines the impact of temporal and spatial information on the uncertainty estimation of streamflow forecasts. The study emphasizes the importance of data updates and global information for precise uncertainty estimates. We use conformal prediction to show that recent data enhance the estimates, even if only available infrequently. Local data yield reasonable average estimations but fall short for peak-flow events. The use of global data significantly improves these predictions.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Zexin Chen, Yu Tian, Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3597–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, 2024
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The local performance plays a critical part in practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. This paper develops a decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow analysis at different timescales. The reanalysis is observed to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. Also, the local performance is shown to be primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality, longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope.
Chaolei Zheng, Li Jia, Guangcheng Hu, Massimo Menenti, and Joris Timmermans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Significant changes are occurring in the Tibetan Plateau, but the amount and variations of evapotranspiration (ET) are with large uncertainty. This study compares 22 ET products and finds that the mean annual ET is 350.34 mm/yr over the Tibetan Plateau, with soil water contribute most to total ET. It also find most products showing an increasing trend. It provides a comprehensive study that supports further ET estimation and potential use of ET data for relevant water and climate studies.
Uwe Ehret and Pankaj Dey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2591–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, 2023
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We propose the
c-u-curvemethod to characterize dynamical (time-variable) systems of all kinds.
Uis for uncertainty and expresses how well a system can be predicted in a given period of time.
Cis for complexity and expresses how predictability differs between different periods, i.e. how well predictability itself can be predicted. The method helps to better classify and compare dynamical systems across a wide range of disciplines, thus facilitating scientific collaboration.
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
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This publication provides an introduction to the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox. CURE offers workflows for a variety of uncertainty estimation methods. One of its most important features is the requirement that all of the assumptions on which a workflow analysis depends be defined. This facilitates communication with potential users of an analysis. An audit trail log is produced automatically from a workflow for future reference.
András Bárdossy and Faizan Anwar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1987–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, 2023
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This study demonstrates the fact that the large river flows forecasted by the models show an underestimation that is inversely related to the number of locations where precipitation is recorded, which is independent of the model. The higher the number of points where the amount of precipitation is recorded, the better the estimate of the river flows.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
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Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Yan Liu, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Matías Mudarra, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5341–5355, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, 2022
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We adapt the informal Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) with a gamma distribution to apply it as an informal likelihood function in the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis DREAM(ZS) method. Our adapted approach performs as well as the formal likelihood function for exploring posterior distributions of model parameters. The adapted KGE is superior to the formal likelihood function for calibrations combining multiple observations with different lengths, frequencies and units.
Silvana Bolaños Chavarría, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, and Teresita Betancur Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4323–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, 2022
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Using total water storage (TWS) from GRACE satellites, we assess the reliability of global hydrological and land surface models over a medium-sized tropical basin with a well-developed gauging network. We find the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term trends. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, offering a useful tool to improve global models in tropical basins.
Jared D. Smith, Laurence Lin, Julianne D. Quinn, and Lawrence E. Band
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2519–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, 2022
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Watershed models are used to simulate streamflow and water quality, and to inform siting and sizing decisions for runoff and nutrient control projects. Data are limited for many watershed processes that are represented in such models, which requires selecting the most important processes to be calibrated. We show that this selection should be based on decision-relevant metrics at the spatial scales of interest for the control projects. This should enable more robust project designs.
Xia Wu, Lucy Marshall, and Ashish Sharma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1203–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, 2022
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Decomposing parameter and input errors in model calibration is a considerable challenge. This study transfers the direct estimation of an input error series to their rank estimation and develops a new algorithm, i.e., Bayesian error analysis with reordering (BEAR). In the context of a total suspended solids simulation, two synthetic studies and a real study demonstrate that the BEAR method is effective for improving the input error estimation and water quality model calibration.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Peyman Abbaszadeh, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4995–5011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, 2021
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In this study, daily observations are assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to update the performance of modeling and improve the flood inundation mapping skill. Results demonstrate that integrating data assimilation with a hydrodynamic model improves the performance of flood simulation and provides more reliable inundation maps. A flowchart provides the overall steps for applying this framework in practice and forecasting probabilistic flood maps before the onset of upcoming floods.
Hang Lyu, Chenxi Xia, Jinghan Zhang, and Bo Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6075–6090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, 2020
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Baseflow separation plays a critical role in science-based management of water resources. This study addressed key challenges hindering the application of the generally accepted conductivity mass balance (CMB). Monitoring data for over 200 stream sites of the Mississippi River basin were collected to answer the following questions. What are the characteristics of a watershed that determine the method suitability? What length of monitoring data is needed? How can the parameters be more accurate?
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, Thomas V. Schuler, John F. Burkhart, and Morten Hjorth-Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4641–4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, 2020
Christoph Schürz, Bano Mehdi, Jens Kiesel, Karsten Schulz, and Mathew Herrnegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4463–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, 2020
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The USLE is a commonly used model to estimate soil erosion by water. It quantifies soil loss as a product of six inputs representing rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, plant cover, and support practices. Many methods exist to derive these inputs, which can, however, lead to substantial differences in the estimated soil loss. Here, we analyze the effect of different input representations on the estimated soil loss in a large-scale study in Kenya and Uganda.
Alicia Correa, Diego Ochoa-Tocachi, and Christian Birkel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5059–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, 2019
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The applications and availability of large tracer data sets have vastly increased in recent years leading to research into the contributions of multiple sources to a mixture. We introduce a method based on Taylor series approximation to estimate the uncertainties of such sources' contributions. The method is illustrated with examples of hydrology (14 tracers) and a MATLAB code is provided for reproducibility. This method can be generalized to any number of tracers across a range of disciplines.
Hongmei Xu, Lüliu Liu, Yong Wang, Sheng Wang, Ying Hao, Jingjin Ma, and Tong Jiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4219–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, 2019
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1.5 and 2 °C have become targets in the discussion of climate change impacts. However, climate research is also challenged to provide more robust information on the impact of climate change at local and regional scales to assist the development of sound scientific adaptation and mitigation measures. This study assessed the impacts and differences of 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming on basin-scale river runoff by examining four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting in China.
Lorenz Ammann, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Peter Reichert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2147–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, 2019
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The uncertainty of hydrological models can be substantial, and its quantification and realistic description are often difficult. We propose a new flexible probabilistic framework to describe and quantify this uncertainty. It is show that the correlation of the errors can be non-stationary, and that accounting for temporal changes in correlation can lead to strongly improved probabilistic predictions. This is a promising avenue for improving uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling.
Weifei Yang, Changlai Xiao, and Xiujuan Liang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1103–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, 2019
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This paper analyzed the sensitivity of the baseflow index to the parameters of the conductivity two-component hydrograph separation method. The results indicated that the baseflow index is more sensitive to the conductivity of baseflow and the separation method may be more suitable for the long time series in a small watershed. After considering the mutual offset of the measurement errors of conductivity and streamflow, the uncertainty in baseflow index was reduced by half.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, Yukiko Hirabayashi, and Trung Nguyen-Quang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6087–6108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, 2018
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Model bias is commonly seen in discharge simulation by hydrological or land surface models. This study tested an approach with the Budyko hypothesis to retrospect the estimated discharge bias to different bias sources including the atmospheric variables and model structure. Results indicate that the bias is most likely caused by the forcing variables, and the forcing bias should firstly be assessed and reduced in order to perform pertinent analysis of the regional water cycle.
Linh Hoang, Rajith Mukundan, Karen E. B. Moore, Emmet M. Owens, and Tammo S. Steenhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5947–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, 2018
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The paper analyzes the effect of two input data (DEMs and the combination of soil and land use data) with different resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of model outputs (the predictions of streamflow and saturated areas) and parameter uncertainty using SWAT-HS. Results showed that DEM resolution has significant effect on the spatial pattern of saturated areas and using complex soil and land use data may not necessarily improve model performance or reduce model uncertainty.
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, John F. Burkhart, and Thomas V. Schuler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5021–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, 2018
Léonard Santos, Guillaume Thirel, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4583–4591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, 2018
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The Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) is a score used in hydrology to evaluate flow simulation compared to observations. In order to force the evaluation on the low flows, some authors used the log-transformed flow to calculate the KGE. In this technical note, we show that this transformation should be avoided because it produced numerical flaws that lead to difficulties in the score value interpretation.
Lei Chen, Shuang Li, Yucen Zhong, and Zhenyao Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4145–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, 2018
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In this study, the cumulative distribution function approach (CDFA) and the Monte Carlo approach (MCA) were used to develop two new approaches for model evaluation within an uncertainty framework. These proposed methods could be extended to watershed models to provide a substitution for traditional model evaluations within an uncertainty framework.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Alex J. Cannon, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, 2018
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Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Andreas M. Jobst, Daniel G. Kingston, Nicolas J. Cullen, and Josef Schmid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3125–3142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018, 2018
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
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Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
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Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
Hadush K. Meresa and Renata J. Romanowicz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, 2017
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Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.
Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4021–4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, 2017
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We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
Christa Kelleher, Brian McGlynn, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3325–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, 2017
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Models are tools for understanding how watersheds function and may respond to land cover and climate change. Before we can use models towards these purposes, we need to ensure that a model adequately represents watershed-wide observations. In this paper, we propose a new way to evaluate whether model simulations match observations, using a variety of information sources. We show how this information can reduce uncertainty in inputs to models, reducing uncertainty in hydrologic predictions.
Gabriele Baroni, Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2301–2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, 2017
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Three methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in soil properties. The effect on simulated states and fluxes is quantified using a distributed hydrological model. Different impacts are identified as function of the perturbation method, of the model outputs and of the spatio-temporal resolution. The study underlines the importance of a proper characterization of the uncertainty in soil properties for a correct assessment of their role and further improvements in the model application.
Ji Li, Yangbo Chen, Huanyu Wang, Jianming Qin, Jie Li, and Sen Chiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, 2017
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Quantitative precipitation forecast produced by the WRF model has a similar pattern to that estimated by rain gauges in a southern China large watershed, hydrological model parameters should be optimized with QPF produced by WRF, and simulating floods by coupling the WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model provides a good reference for large watershed flood warning and could benefit the flood management communities due to its longer lead time.
Johanna I. F. Slaets, Hans-Peter Piepho, Petra Schmitter, Thomas Hilger, and Georg Cadisch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 571–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, 2017
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Determining measures of uncertainty on loads is not trivial, as a load is a product of concentration and discharge per time point, summed up over time. A bootstrap approach enables the calculation of confidence intervals on constituent loads. Ignoring the uncertainty on the discharge will typically underestimate the width of 95 % confidence intervals by around 10 %. Furthermore, confidence intervals are asymmetric, with the largest uncertainty on the upper limit.
David N. Dralle, Nathaniel J. Karst, Kyriakos Charalampous, Andrew Veenstra, and Sally E. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 65–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, 2017
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The streamflow recession is the period following rainfall during which flow declines. This paper examines a common method of recession analysis and identifies sensitivity of the technique's results to necessary, yet subjective, methodological choices. The results have implications for hydrology, sediment and solute transport, and geomorphology, as well as for testing numerous hydrologic theories which predict the mathematical form of the recession.
Simon Paul Seibert, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3745–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, 2016
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While the assessment of "vertical" (magnitude) errors of streamflow simulations is standard practice, "horizontal" (timing) errors are rarely considered. To assess their role, we propose a method to quantify both errors simultaneously which closely resembles visual hydrograph comparison. Our results reveal differences in time–magnitude error statistics for different flow conditions. The proposed method thus offers novel perspectives for model diagnostics and evaluation.
Paul Hublart, Denis Ruelland, Inaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Simon Gascoin, Stef Lhermitte, and Antonio Ibacache
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3691–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, 2016
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Our paper explores the reliability of conceptual catchment models in the dry Andes. First, we show that explicitly accounting for irrigation water use improves streamflow predictions during dry years. Second, we show that sublimation losses can be easily incorporated into temperature-based melt models without increasing model complexity too much. Our work also highlights areas requiring additional research, including the need for a better conceptualization of runoff generation processes.
Stephen Oni, Martyn Futter, Jose Ledesma, Claudia Teutschbein, Jim Buttle, and Hjalmar Laudon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, 2016
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This paper presents an important framework to improve hydrologic projections in cold regions. Hydrologic modelling/projections are often based on model calibration to long-term data. Here we used dry and wet years as a proxy to quantify uncertainty in projecting hydrologic extremes. We showed that projections based on long-term data could underestimate runoff by up to 35% in boreal regions. We believe the hydrologic modelling community will benefit from new insights derived from this study.
Susana Almeida, Nataliya Le Vine, Neil McIntyre, Thorsten Wagener, and Wouter Buytaert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, 2016
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The absence of flow data to calibrate hydrologic models may reduce the ability of such models to reliably inform water resources management. To address this limitation, it is common to condition hydrological model parameters on regionalized signatures. In this study, we justify the inclusion of larger sets of signatures in the regionalization procedure if their error correlations are formally accounted for and thus enable a more complete use of all available information.
H. Xu and Y. Luo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4609–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, 2015
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This study quantified the climate impact on river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. Climate projections showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in both catchments. Peak flows are projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in River Xiangxi.
I. K. Westerberg and H. K. McMillan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3951–3968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, 2015
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This study investigated the effect of uncertainties in data and calculation methods on hydrological signatures. We present a widely applicable method to evaluate signature uncertainty and show results for two example catchments. The uncertainties were often large (i.e. typical intervals of ±10–40% relative uncertainty) and highly variable between signatures. It is therefore important to consider uncertainty when signatures are used for hydrological and ecohydrological analyses and modelling.
T. O. Sonnenborg, D. Seifert, and J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3891–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, 2015
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The impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Geology is the dominating uncertainty source for travel time and capture zones, while climate dominates for hydraulic heads and steam flow.
N. Dogulu, P. López López, D. P. Solomatine, A. H. Weerts, and D. L. Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3181–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, 2015
F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, 2015
T. Berezowski, J. Nossent, J. Chormański, and O. Batelaan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1887–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, 2015
F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Delogu, P. Laiolo, and G. Boni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1727–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, 2015
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, 2015
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This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
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We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
M. Honti, A. Scheidegger, and C. Stamm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3301–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Streamflow estimation during low-flow conditions is important for estimation of environmental flows, effluent water quality, hydropower operations, etc. However, it is not clear how the uncertainties in assumptions used in the projections translate into uncertainty of estimated future low flows. The objective of the study is to explore the relative role of hydrologic model calibration and climate scenarios in the uncertainty of low-flow projections in Austria.
Streamflow estimation during low-flow conditions is important for estimation of environmental...
