Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding
- 1Department of Earth Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, 13244, USA
- 2Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27706, USA
- 3Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
- 4Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Abstract. Distributed catchment models are widely used tools for predicting hydrologic behavior. While distributed models require many parameters to describe a system, they are expected to simulate behavior that is more consistent with observed processes. However, obtaining a single set of acceptable parameters can be problematic, as parameter equifinality often results in several
behavioral sets that fit observations (typically streamflow). In this study, we investigate the extent to which equifinality impacts a typical distributed modeling application. We outline a hierarchical approach to reduce the number of behavioral sets based on regional, observation-driven, and expert-knowledge-based constraints. For our application, we explore how each of these constraint classes reduced the number of
behavioral parameter sets and altered distributions of spatiotemporal simulations, simulating a well-studied headwater catchment, Stringer Creek, Montana, using the distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM). As a demonstrative exercise, we investigated model performance across 10 000 parameter sets. Constraints on regional signatures, the hydrograph, and two internal measurements of snow water equivalent time series reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets but still left a small number with similar goodness of fit. This subset was ultimately further reduced by incorporating pattern expectations of groundwater table depth across the catchment. Our results suggest that utilizing a hierarchical approach based on regional datasets, observations, and expert knowledge to identify behavioral parameter sets can reduce equifinality and bolster more careful application and simulation of spatiotemporal processes via distributed modeling at the catchment scale.