Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2025
| 20 Feb 2025
Green water availability and water-limited crop yields under a changing climate in Ethiopia
Mosisa Tujuba Wakjira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Laura-Hezner-Weg 7, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Nadav Peleg
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Johan Six
Institute of Agricultural Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 2, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Peter Molnar
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Laura-Hezner-Weg 7, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Amber van Hamel, Peter Molnar, Joren Janzing, and Manuela Irene Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2975–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Suspended sediment is a natural component of rivers, but extreme suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) can have negative impacts on water use and aquatic ecosystems. We identify the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal variability of annual SSC regimes and extreme SSC events. Our analysis shows that different processes are more important for annual SSC regimes than for extreme events and that compound events driven by glacial melt and high-intensity rainfall led to the highest SSCs.
Antoine de Clippele, Astrid C. H. Jaeger, Simon Baumgartner, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Clement Botefa, Glenn Bush, Jessica Carilli, Travis W. Drake, Christian Ekamba, Gode Lompoko, Nivens Bey Mukwiele, Kristof Van Oost, Roland A. Werner, Joseph Zambo, Johan Six, and Matti Barthel
Biogeosciences, 22, 3011–3027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3011-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3011-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forest soils as a large terrestrial source of carbon dioxide (CO2) contribute to the global greenhouse gas budget. Despite this, carbon flux data from forested wetlands are scarce in tropical Africa. The study presents 3 years of semi-continuous measurements of surface CO2 fluxes within the Congo Basin. Although no seasonal patterns were evident, our results show a positive effect of soil temperature and moisture, while a quadratic relationship was observed with the water table.
Claude Raoul Müller, Johan Six, Daniel Mugendi Njiru, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Marijn Van de Broek
Biogeosciences, 22, 2733–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2733-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2733-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how different organic and inorganic nutrient inputs affect soil organic carbon (SOC) down to 70 cm in Kenya. After 19 years, all organic treatments increased SOC stocks compared with the control, but mineral nitrogen had no significant effect. Manure was the organic treatment that significantly increased SOC at the deepest soil depths, as its effect could be observed down to 60 cm. Manure was the best strategy to limit SOC loss in croplands and maintain soil quality after deforestation.
Marijn Van de Broek, Fiona Stewart-Smith, Moritz Laub, Marc Corbeels, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2287, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for SOIL (SOIL).
Short summary
Short summary
To improve soil health and increase crop yields, organic matter is commenly added to arable soils. Studying the effect of different organic amenmends on soil organic carbon sequestration in four long-term field trials in Kenya, we found that only a small portion (< 7 %) of added carbon was stabilised. Moreover, this was only observed in the top 15 cm of the soil. These results underline the challenges associated with increasing the organic carbon content of tropical arable soils.
Qi Zhuang, Marika Koukoula, Shuguang Liu, Zhengzheng Zhou, and Nadav Peleg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1002, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how projected urbanization and climate change affect typhoons, which may cause the most destructive natural catastrophes, is crucial. Based on numerical simulations of five landfalling typhoons in Shanghai, China, our results highlight that warming sea surface temperatures significantly shift typhoon tracks with intensified structures (increased size, intensity, and affected time) on the big scale. At the meantime, urbanization further enhances local rainfall intensity.
Roxanne Daelman, Marijn Bauters, Matti Barthel, Emmanuel Bulonza, Lodewijk Lefevre, José Mbifo, Johan Six, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Benjamin Wolf, Ralf Kiese, and Pascal Boeckx
Biogeosciences, 22, 1529–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in atmospheric concentrations of several greenhouse gases (GHGs) since 1750 is attributed to human activity. However, natural ecosystems, such as tropical forests, also contribute to GHG budgets. The Congo Basin hosts the second largest tropical forest and is understudied. In this study, measurements of soil GHG exchange were carried out during 16 months in a tropical forest in the Congo Basin. Overall, the soil acted as a major source of CO2 and N2O and a minor sink of CH4.
Marijn Van de Broek, Gerard Govers, Marion Schrumpf, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 22, 1427–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon models are used to predict how soils affect the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. We show that equifinality – the phenomenon that different parameter values lead to correct overall model outputs, albeit with a different model behaviour – is an important source of model uncertainty. Our results imply that adding more complexity to soil organic carbon models is unlikely to lead to better predictions as long as more data to constrain model parameters are not available.
Tabea Cache, Milton Salvador Gomez, Tom Beucler, Jovan Blagojevic, João Paulo Leitao, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5443–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new deep-learning model that addresses the limitations of existing urban flood models in handling varied terrains and rainfall events. Our model subdivides a city into small patches and presents a novel approach to incorporate broader terrain information. It accurately predicts high-resolution flood maps across diverse rainfall events and cities (on minute and meter scales) that haven’t been seen by the model, which offers valuable insights for urban flood mitigation strategies.
Vira Leng, Rémi Cardinael, Florent Tivet, Vang Seng, Phearum Mark, Pascal Lienhard, Titouan Filloux, Johan Six, Lyda Hok, Stéphane Boulakia, Clever Briedis, João Carlos de Moraes Sá, and Laurent Thuriès
SOIL, 10, 699–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the long-term impacts of no-till cropping systems on soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics down to 1 m depth under the annual upland crop productions (cassava, maize, and soybean) in the tropical climate of Cambodia. We showed that no-till systems combined with rotations and cover crops could store large amounts of carbon in the top and subsoil in both the mineral organic matter and particulate organic matter fractions. We also question nitrogen management in these systems.
Moritz Laub, Magdalena Necpalova, Marijn Van de Broek, Marc Corbeels, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Rebecca Yegon, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 21, 3691–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used the DayCent model to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on maize production, soil fertility, and greenhouse gas emission in Kenya. After adjustments, DayCent represented measured mean yields and soil carbon stock changes well and N2O emissions acceptably. Our results showed that soil fertility losses could be reduced but not completely eliminated with ISFM and that, while N2O emissions increased with ISFM, emissions per kilogram yield decreased.
Judith Eeckman, Brian De Grenus, Floreana Miesen, James Thornton, Philip Brunner, and Nadav Peleg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1832, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fate of liquid water from melting snow in winter and spring is difficult to understand in the mountains. This work uses uncommon methods to accurately track the dynamics of snowmelt and infiltration at different depths in the ground and at different altitudes. The results show that melting snow quickly infiltrates into the upper layers of the soil but is also quickly transferred into the surface layer of the soil along the slopes towards the river.
Claude Raoul Müller, Johan Six, Liesa Brosens, Philipp Baumann, Jean Paolo Gomes Minella, Gerard Govers, and Marijn Van de Broek
SOIL, 10, 349–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Subsoils in the tropics are not as extensively studied as those in temperate regions. In this study, the conversion of forest to agriculture in a subtropical region affected the concentration of stabilized organic carbon (OC) down to 90 cm depth, while no significant differences between 90 cm and 300 cm were detected. Our results suggest that subsoils below 90 cm are unlikely to accumulate additional stabilized OC through reforestation over decadal periods due to declining OC input with depth.
Johan Six, Sebastian Doetterl, Moritz Laub, Claude R. Müller, and Marijn Van de Broek
SOIL, 10, 275–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil C saturation has been tested in several recent studies and led to a debate about its existence. We argue that, to test C saturation, one should pay attention to six fundamental principles: the right measures, the right units, the right dispersive energy and application, the right soil type, the right clay type, and the right saturation level. Once we take care of those six rights across studies, we find support for a maximum of C stabilized by minerals and thus soil C saturation.
Armwell Shumba, Regis Chikowo, Christian Thierfelder, Marc Corbeels, Johan Six, and Rémi Cardinael
SOIL, 10, 151–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-151-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-151-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Conservation agriculture (CA), combining reduced or no tillage, permanent soil cover, and improved rotations, is often promoted as a climate-smart practice. However, our knowledge of the impact of CA on top- and subsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the low-input cropping systems of sub-Saharan Africa is rather limited. Using two long-term experimental sites with different soil types, we found that mulch could increase top SOC stocks, but no tillage alone had a slightly negative impact.
Moritz Laub, Sergey Blagodatsky, Marijn Van de Broek, Samuel Schlichenmaier, Benjapon Kunlanit, Johan Six, Patma Vityakon, and Georg Cadisch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 931–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage soil organic matter (SOM) sustainably, we need a better understanding of the role that soil microbes play in aggregate protection. Here, we propose the SAMM model, which connects soil aggregate formation to microbial growth. We tested it against data from a tropical long-term experiment and show that SAMM effectively represents the microbial growth, SOM, and aggregate dynamics and that it can be used to explore the importance of aggregate formation in SOM stabilization.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Jessica Droujko, Srividya Hariharan Sudha, Gabriel Singer, and Peter Molnar
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 881–897, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-881-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-881-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We combined data from satellite images with data measured from a kayak in order to understand the propagation of fine sediment in the Vjosa River. We were able to find some storm-activated and some permanent sources of sediment. We also estimated how much fine sediment is carried into the Adriatic Sea by the Vjosa River: approximately 2.5 Mt per year, which matches previous findings. With our work, we hope to show the potential of open-access satellite images.
Moritz Laub, Marc Corbeels, Antoine Couëdel, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Magdalena Necpalova, Wycliffe Waswa, Marijn Van de Broek, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
SOIL, 9, 301–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, long-term low-input maize cropping threatens soil fertility. We studied how different quality organic inputs combined with mineral N fertilizer could counteract this. Farmyard manure was the best input to counteract soil carbon loss; mineral N fertilizer had no effect on carbon. Yet, the rates needed to offset soil carbon losses are unrealistic for farmers (>10 t of dry matter per hectare and year). Additional agronomic measures may be needed.
Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Sabine Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Andrey Yakovlev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia's high-mountain regions. Using new data and a stochastic soil moisture model, we found increased precipitation and higher temperatures in the future, leading to higher water discharge despite decreasing glacier melt contributions. These findings are crucial for understanding and preparing for climate change effects on Central Asia's water resources, with further research needed on extreme weather event impacts.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Kristof Van Oost and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 20, 635–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The direction and magnitude of the net erosion-induced land–atmosphere C exchange have been the topic of a big scientific debate for more than a decade now. Many have assumed that erosion leads to a loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, whereas others have shown that erosion ultimately leads to a carbon sink. Here, we show that the soil carbon erosion source–sink paradox is reconciled when the broad range of temporal and spatial scales at which the underlying processes operate are considered.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Charlotte Decock, Juhwan Lee, Matti Barthel, Elizabeth Verhoeven, Franz Conen, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-221, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
One of the least well understood processes in the nitrogen (N) cycle is the loss of nitrogen gas (N2), referred to as total denitrification. This is mainly due to the difficulty of quantifying total denitrification in situ. In this study, we developed and tested a novel modeling approach to estimate total denitrification over the depth profile, based on concentrations and isotope values of N2O. Our method will help close N budgets and identify management strategies that reduce N pollution.
Michael Schirmer, Adam Winstral, Tobias Jonas, Paolo Burlando, and Nadav Peleg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rain is highly variable in time at a given location so that there can be both wet and dry climate periods. In this study, we quantify the effects of this natural climate variability and other sources of uncertainty on changes in flooding events due to rain on snow (ROS) caused by climate change. For ROS events with a significant contribution of snowmelt to runoff, the change due to climate was too small to draw firm conclusions about whether there are more ROS events of this important type.
Silvan Ragettli, Tabea Donauer, Peter Molnar, Ron Delnoije, and Tobias Siegfried
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 797–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a novel methodology to identify and quantitatively analyze deposition and erosion patterns in ephemeral ponds or in perennial lakes with strong water level fluctuations. We apply this method to unravel the water and sediment balance of Lac Wégnia, a designated Ramsar site in Mali. The study can be a showcase for monitoring Sahelian lakes using remote sensing data, as it sheds light on the actual drivers of change in Sahelian lakes.
Tegawende Léa Jeanne Ilboudo, Lucien NGuessan Diby, Delwendé Innocent Kiba, Tor Gunnar Vågen, Leigh Ann Winowiecki, Hassan Bismarck Nacro, Johan Six, and Emmanuel Frossard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-209, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Our results showed that at landscape level SOC stock variability was mainly explained by clay content. We found significant linear positive relationships between VC and SOC stocks for the land uses annual croplands, perennial croplands, grasslands and bushlands without soil depth restrictions until 110 cm. We concluded that in the forest-savanna transition zone, soil properties and topography determine land use, which in turn affects the stocks of SOC and TN and to some extent the VC stocks.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Philipp Baumann, Juhwan Lee, Emmanuel Frossard, Laurie Paule Schönholzer, Lucien Diby, Valérie Kouamé Hgaza, Delwende Innocent Kiba, Andrew Sila, Keith Sheperd, and Johan Six
SOIL, 7, 717–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work delivers openly accessible and validated calibrations for diagnosing 26 soil properties based on mid-infrared spectroscopy. These were developed for four regions in Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire, including 80 fields of smallholder farmers. The models can help to site-specifically and cost-efficiently monitor soil quality and fertility constraints to ameliorate soils and yields of yam or other staple crops in the four regions between the humid forest and the northern Guinean savanna.
Laura Summerauer, Philipp Baumann, Leonardo Ramirez-Lopez, Matti Barthel, Marijn Bauters, Benjamin Bukombe, Mario Reichenbach, Pascal Boeckx, Elizabeth Kearsley, Kristof Van Oost, Bernard Vanlauwe, Dieudonné Chiragaga, Aimé Bisimwa Heri-Kazi, Pieter Moonen, Andrew Sila, Keith Shepherd, Basile Bazirake Mujinya, Eric Van Ranst, Geert Baert, Sebastian Doetterl, and Johan Six
SOIL, 7, 693–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-693-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a soil mid-infrared library with over 1800 samples from central Africa in order to facilitate soil analyses of this highly understudied yet critical area. Together with an existing continental library, we demonstrate a regional analysis and geographical extrapolation to predict total carbon and nitrogen. Our results show accurate predictions and highlight the value that the data contribute to existing libraries. Our library is openly available for public use and for expansion.
Jacob Hirschberg, Alexandre Badoux, Brian W. McArdell, Elena Leonarduzzi, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Sebastian Doetterl, Rodrigue K. Asifiwe, Geert Baert, Fernando Bamba, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Benjamin Bukombe, Georg Cadisch, Matthew Cooper, Landry N. Cizungu, Alison Hoyt, Clovis Kabaseke, Karsten Kalbitz, Laurent Kidinda, Annina Maier, Moritz Mainka, Julia Mayrock, Daniel Muhindo, Basile B. Mujinya, Serge M. Mukotanyi, Leon Nabahungu, Mario Reichenbach, Boris Rewald, Johan Six, Anna Stegmann, Laura Summerauer, Robin Unseld, Bernard Vanlauwe, Kristof Van Oost, Kris Verheyen, Cordula Vogel, Florian Wilken, and Peter Fiener
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The African Tropics are hotspots of modern-day land use change and are of great relevance for the global carbon cycle. Here, we present data collected as part of the DFG-funded project TropSOC along topographic, land use, and geochemical gradients in the eastern Congo Basin and the Albertine Rift. Our database contains spatial and temporal data on soil, vegetation, environmental properties, and land management collected from 136 pristine tropical forest and cropland plots between 2017 and 2020.
Philipp Baumann, Anatol Helfenstein, Andreas Gubler, Armin Keller, Reto Giulio Meuli, Daniel Wächter, Juhwan Lee, Raphael Viscarra Rossel, and Johan Six
SOIL, 7, 525–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-525-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the Swiss mid-infrared spectral library and a statistical model collection across 4374 soil samples with reference measurements of 16 properties. Our library incorporates soil from 1094 grid locations and 71 long-term monitoring sites. This work confirms once again that nationwide spectral libraries with diverse soils can reliably feed information to a fast chemical diagnosis. Our data-driven reduction of the library has the potential to accurately monitor carbon at the plot scale.
Mario Reichenbach, Peter Fiener, Gina Garland, Marco Griepentrog, Johan Six, and Sebastian Doetterl
SOIL, 7, 453–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In deeply weathered tropical rainforest soils of Africa, we found that patterns of soil organic carbon stocks differ between soils developed from geochemically contrasting parent material due to differences in the abundance of organo-mineral complexes, the presence/absence of chemical stabilization mechanisms of carbon with minerals and the presence of fossil organic carbon from sedimentary rocks. Physical stabilization mechanisms by aggregation provide additional protection of soil carbon.
Sophie F. von Fromm, Alison M. Hoyt, Markus Lange, Gifty E. Acquah, Ermias Aynekulu, Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Stephan M. Haefele, Steve P. McGrath, Keith D. Shepherd, Andrew M. Sila, Johan Six, Erick K. Towett, Susan E. Trumbore, Tor-G. Vågen, Elvis Weullow, Leigh A. Winowiecki, and Sebastian Doetterl
SOIL, 7, 305–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated various soil and climate properties that influence soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings indicate that climate and geochemistry are equally important for explaining SOC variations. The key SOC-controlling factors are broadly similar to those for temperate regions, despite differences in soil development history between the two regions.
Anatol Helfenstein, Philipp Baumann, Raphael Viscarra Rossel, Andreas Gubler, Stefan Oechslin, and Johan Six
SOIL, 7, 193–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show that a soil spectral library (SSL) can be used to predict soil carbon at new and very different locations. The importance of this finding is that it requires less time-consuming lab work than calibrating a new model for every local application, while still remaining similar to or more accurate than local models. Furthermore, we show that this method even works for predicting (drained) peat soils, using a SSL with mostly mineral soils containing much less soil carbon.
Simon Baumgartner, Marijn Bauters, Matti Barthel, Travis W. Drake, Landry C. Ntaboba, Basile M. Bazirake, Johan Six, Pascal Boeckx, and Kristof Van Oost
SOIL, 7, 83–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-83-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-83-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compared stable isotope signatures of soil profiles in different forest ecosystems within the Congo Basin to assess ecosystem-level differences in N cycling, and we examined the local effect of topography on the isotopic signature of soil N. Soil δ15N profiles indicated that the N cycling in in the montane forest is more closed, whereas the lowland forest and Miombo woodland experienced a more open N cycle. Topography only alters soil δ15N values in forests with high erosional forces.
Simon Baumgartner, Matti Barthel, Travis William Drake, Marijn Bauters, Isaac Ahanamungu Makelele, John Kalume Mugula, Laura Summerauer, Nora Gallarotti, Landry Cizungu Ntaboba, Kristof Van Oost, Pascal Boeckx, Sebastian Doetterl, Roland Anton Werner, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 17, 6207–6218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6207-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Soil respiration is an important carbon flux and key process determining the net ecosystem production of terrestrial ecosystems. The Congo Basin lacks studies quantifying carbon fluxes. We measured soil CO2 fluxes from different forest types in the Congo Basin and were able to show that, even though soil CO2 fluxes are similarly high in lowland and montane forests, the drivers were different: soil moisture in montane forests and C availability in the lowland forests.
Marius G. Floriancic, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Tobias Jonas, James W. Kirchner, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Low river flows affect societies and ecosystems. Here we study how precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shape low flows across a network of 380 Swiss catchments. Low flows in these rivers typically result from below-average precipitation and above-average potential evapotranspiration. Extreme low flows result from long periods of the combined effects of both drivers.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Long Ho, Ruben Jerves-Cobo, Matti Barthel, Johan Six, Samuel Bode, Pascal Boeckx, and Peter Goethals
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-311, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers are being polluted by human activities, especially in urban areas. We studied the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an urban river system. The results showed a clear trend between water quality and GHG emissions in which the more polluted the sites were, the higher were their emissions. When river water quality worsened, its contribution to global warming can go up by 10 times. Urban rivers emitted 4-times more than of the amount of GHGs compared to rivers in natural sites.
Giulia Battista, Peter Molnar, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Suspended sediment load in rivers is highly uncertain because of spatial and temporal variability. By means of a hydrology and suspended sediment transport model, we investigated the effect of spatial variability in precipitation and surface erodibility on catchment sediment fluxes in a mesoscale river basin.
We found that sediment load depends on the spatial variability in erosion drivers, as this affects erosion rates and the location and connectivity to the channel of the erosion areas.
Marijn Van de Broek, Shiva Ghiasi, Charlotte Decock, Andreas Hund, Samuel Abiven, Cordula Friedli, Roland A. Werner, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 17, 2971–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2971-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Four wheat cultivars were labeled with 13CO2 to quantify the effect of rooting depth and root biomass on the belowground transfer of organic carbon. We found no clear relation between the time since cultivar development and the amount of carbon inputs to the soil. Therefore, the hypothesis that wheat cultivars with a larger root biomass and deeper roots promote carbon stabilization was rejected. The amount of root biomass that will be stabilized in the soil on the long term is, however, unknown.
Stephen J. Harris, Jesper Liisberg, Longlong Xia, Jing Wei, Kerstin Zeyer, Longfei Yu, Matti Barthel, Benjamin Wolf, Bryce F. J. Kelly, Dioni I. Cendón, Thomas Blunier, Johan Six, and Joachim Mohn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2797–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2797-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The latest commercial laser spectrometers have the potential to revolutionize N2O isotope analysis. However, to do so, they must be able to produce trustworthy data. Here, we test the performance of widely used laser spectrometers for ambient air applications and identify instrument-specific dependencies on gas matrix and trace gas concentrations. We then provide a calibration workflow to facilitate the operation of these instruments in order to generate reproducible and accurate data.
Nadav Peleg, Chris Skinner, Simone Fatichi, and Peter Molnar
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 17–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is expected to intensify with increasing temperatures, which will likely affect rainfall spatial structure. The spatial variability of rainfall can affect streamflow and sediment transport volumes and peaks. The sensitivity of the hydro-morphological response to changes in the structure of heavy rainfall was investigated. It was found that the morphological components are more sensitive to changes in rainfall spatial structure in comparison to the hydrological components.
Karl Voglmeier, Johan Six, Markus Jocher, and Christof Ammann
Biogeosciences, 16, 1685–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1685-2019, 2019
Tino Colombi, Florian Walder, Lucie Büchi, Marlies Sommer, Kexing Liu, Johan Six, Marcel G. A. van der Heijden, Raphaël Charles, and Thomas Keller
SOIL, 5, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-5-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-5-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The role of soil aeration in carbon sequestration in arable soils has only been explored little, especially at the farm level. The current study, which was conducted on 30 fields that belong to individual farms, reveals a positive relationship between soil gas transport capability and soil organic carbon content. We therefore conclude that soil aeration needs to be accounted for when developing strategies for carbon sequestration in arable soil.
Elizabeth Verhoeven, Matti Barthel, Longfei Yu, Luisella Celi, Daniel Said-Pullicino, Steven Sleutel, Dominika Lewicka-Szczebak, Johan Six, and Charlotte Decock
Biogeosciences, 16, 383–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-383-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-383-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilized state-of-the-art measurements of nitrogen isotopes to evaluate nitrogen cycling and to assess the biological sources of the potent greenhouse gas, N2O, in response to water-saving practices in rice systems. Water-saving practices did emit more N2O, and high N2O production had a lower 15N isotope signature. Modeling and visual interpretation indicate that these emissions mostly came from denitrification or nitrifier denitrification, controlled upstream by nitrification rates.
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3421–3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the control of hydroclimatic factors – erosive rainfall, ice melt, and snowmelt – on suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of Alpine catchments regulated by hydropower, and we develop a multivariate hydroclimatic–informed rating curve. We show that while erosive rainfall determines the variability of SSC, ice melt generates the highest contribution to SSC per unit of runoff. This approach allows the exploration of climate–driven changes in fine sediment dynamics in Alpine catchments.
Anna Costa, Peter Molnar, Laura Stutenbecker, Maarten Bakker, Tiago A. Silva, Fritz Schlunegger, Stuart N. Lane, Jean-Luc Loizeau, and Stéphanie Girardclos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the signal of a warmer climate in the suspended-sediment dynamics of a regulated and human-impacted Alpine catchment. We demonstrate that temperature-driven enhanced melting of glaciers, which occurred in the mid-1980s, played a dominant role in suspended sediment concentration rise, through increased runoff from sediment-rich proglacial areas, increased contribution of sediment-rich meltwater, and increased sediment supply in proglacial areas due to glacier recession.
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a novel rating curve to simulate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in Alpine catchments (Process-Based Rating Curve, PBRC). Instead of relating SSC to discharge, as in traditional approaches, we model SSC by differentiating the potential contributions of the main erosional and transport processes of Alpine environments: erosive rainfall, snowmelt, and icemelt. We show that PBRC significantly improves predictions of SSC, especially when analysing climate-induced changes.
Francesco Marra, Efrat Morin, Nadav Peleg, Yiwen Mei, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2389–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall frequency analyses from radar and satellite estimates over the eastern Mediterranean are compared examining different climatic conditions. Correlation between radar and satellite results is high for frequent events and decreases with return period. The uncertainty related to record length is larger for drier climates. The agreement between different sensors instills confidence on their use for rainfall frequency analysis in ungauged areas of the Earth.
Nadav Peleg, Frank Blumensaat, Peter Molnar, Simone Fatichi, and Paolo Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1559–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the relative contribution of the spatial versus climatic rainfall variability for flow peaks by applying an advanced stochastic rainfall generator to simulate rainfall for a small urban catchment and simulate flow dynamics in the sewer system. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. The contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with return periods.
Søren Thorndahl, Thomas Einfalt, Patrick Willems, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews how weather radar data can be used in urban hydrological applications. It focuses on three areas of research: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Moreover, the paper provides examples of urban hydrological applications which can benefit from radar rainfall data in comparison to tradition rain gauge measurements of rainfall.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Bahareh Kianfar, Simone Fatichi, Athansios Paschalis, Max Maurer, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Raingauge observations show a large variability in extreme rainfall depths in the current climate. Climate model predictions of extreme rainfall in the future have to be compared with this natural variability. Our work shows that predictions of future extreme rainfall often lie within the range of natural variability of present-day climate, and therefore predictions of change are highly uncertain. We demonstrate this by using stochastic rainfall models and 10-min rainfall data in Switzerland.
Matteo Saletti, Peter Molnar, Marwan A. Hassan, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 549–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new reduced-complexity model with few parameters linked to basic physical processes, which aims to reproduce the transport of sediment as bed load and the formation and stability of channel morphology in steep mountain streams. The model is able to simulate the formation and stability of steps, bed structures commonly encountered in steep channels, by assuming that their formation is due to intense sediment transport during high flows causing jamming of particles.
R. Hüppi, R. Felber, A. Neftel, J. Six, and J. Leifeld
SOIL, 1, 707–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-707-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Biochar is considered an opportunity to tackle major environmental issues in agriculture. Adding pyrolised organic residues to soil may sequester carbon, increase yields and reduce nitrous oxide emissions from soil. It is unknown, whether the latter is induced by changes in soil pH. We show that biochar application substantially reduces nitrous oxide emissions from a temperate maize cropping system. However, the reduction was only achieved with biochar but not with liming.
C. Decock, J. Lee, M. Necpalova, E. I. P. Pereira, D. M. Tendall, and J. Six
SOIL, 1, 687–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-687-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-687-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Further progress in understanding and mitigating N2O emissions from soil lies within transdisciplinary research that reaches across spatial scales and takes an ambitious look into the future.
M. S. Torn, A. Chabbi, P. Crill, P. J. Hanson, I. A. Janssens, Y. Luo, C. H. Pries, C. Rumpel, M. W. I. Schmidt, J. Six, M. Schrumpf, and B. Zhu
SOIL, 1, 575–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-575-2015, 2015
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
B. Wolf, L. Merbold, C. Decock, B. Tuzson, E. Harris, J. Six, L. Emmenegger, and J. Mohn
Biogeosciences, 12, 2517–2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2517-2015, 2015
P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, L. Gaál, J. Szolgay, and P. Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1753–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present an empirical study of the rates of increase in precipitation intensity with air temperature using high-resolution 10 min precipitation records in Switzerland. We estimated the scaling rates for lightning (convective) and non-lightning event subsets and show that scaling rates are between 7 and 14%/C for convective rain and that mixing of storm types exaggerates the relations to air temperature. Doubled CC rates reported by other studies are an exception in our data set.
S. Doetterl, J.-T. Cornelis, J. Six, S. Bodé, S. Opfergelt, P. Boeckx, and K. Van Oost
Biogeosciences, 12, 1357–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1357-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We link the mineralogy of soils affected by erosion and deposition to the distribution of soil carbon fractions, their turnover and microbial activity. We show that the weathering status of soils and their history are controlling the stabilization of carbon with minerals. After burial, aggregated C is preserved more efficiently while non-aggregated C can be released and younger C re-sequestered more easily. Weathering changes the effectiveness of stabilization mechanism limiting this C sink.
N. Peleg, E. Shamir, K. P. Georgakakos, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 567–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-567-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-567-2015, 2015
E. C. Brevik, A. Cerdà, J. Mataix-Solera, L. Pereg, J. N. Quinton, J. Six, and K. Van Oost
SOIL, 1, 117–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-117-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-117-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a brief accounting of some of the many ways that the study of soils can be interdisciplinary, therefore giving examples of the types of papers we hope to see submitted to SOIL.
K. Džubáková, P. Molnar, K. Schindler, and M. Trizna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We use a high-resolution ground-based camera system with near-infrared sensitivity to quantify the response of riparian vegetation in an Alpine river to floods with the use of vegetation indices. The vegetation showed both damage and enhancement within 1 week following floods, with a selective impact determined by pre-flood vegetation vigour, morphological setting and intensity of flood forcing. The tested vegetation indices differed in the direction of predicted change in the range 0.7-35.8%.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
N. Peleg, M. Ben-Asher, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2195–2208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Ecohydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections
Integration of the vegetation phenology module improves ecohydrological simulation by the SWAT-Carbon model
Calibrating a large-domain land/hydrology process model in the age of AI: the SUMMA CAMELS experiments
Revealing Seasonal Plasticity of Whole-Plant Hydraulic Properties Using Sap-Flow and Stem Water-Potential Monitoring
Ecohydrological responses to solar radiation changes
Technical assessment combined with an extended cost–benefit analysis for the restoration of groundwater and forest ecosystem services – an application for Grand Bahama
Regional patterns and drivers of modelled water flows along environmental, functional, and stand structure gradients in Spanish forests
Machine learning and global vegetation: random forests for downscaling and gap filling
Unraveling phenological and stomatal responses to flash drought and implications for water and carbon budgets
Bias-blind and bias-aware assimilation of leaf area index into the Noah-MP land surface model over Europe
Technical note: Seamless extraction and analysis of river networks in R
Advancing stream classification and hydrologic modeling of ungaged basins for environmental flow management in coastal southern California
Improving regional climate simulations based on a hybrid data assimilation and machine learning method
A comprehensive assessment of in situ and remote sensing soil moisture data assimilation in the APSIM model for improving agricultural forecasting across the US Midwest
Does non-stationarity induced by multiyear drought invalidate the paired-catchment method?
Is the reputation of Eucalyptus plantations for using more water than Pinus plantations justified?
Attributing trend in naturalized streamflow to temporally explicit vegetation change and climate variation in the Yellow River basin of China
Impacts of different types of El Niño events on water quality over the Corn Belt, United States
Leveraging sap flow data in a catchment-scale hybrid model to improve soil moisture and transpiration estimates
Coupled modelling of hydrological processes and grassland production in two contrasting climates
Does maximization of net carbon profit enable the prediction of vegetation behaviour in savanna sites along a precipitation gradient?
Modelling the artificial forest (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) root–soil water interactions in the Loess Plateau, China
A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration
Vegetation greening weakened the capacity of water supply to China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project
Structural changes to forests during regeneration affect water flux partitioning, water ages and hydrological connectivity: Insights from tracer-aided ecohydrological modelling
How does water yield respond to mountain pine beetle infestation in a semiarid forest?
Daily soil temperature modeling improved by integrating observed snow cover and estimated soil moisture in the USA Great Plains
Plant hydraulic transport controls transpiration sensitivity to soil water stress
Drought onset and propagation into soil moisture and grassland vegetation responses during the 2012–2019 major drought in Southern California
Quantifying the effects of urban green space on water partitioning and ages using an isotope-based ecohydrological model
Low and contrasting impacts of vegetation CO2 fertilization on global terrestrial runoff over 1982–2010: accounting for aboveground and belowground vegetation–CO2 effects
Global ecosystem-scale plant hydraulic traits retrieved using model–data fusion
Quantifying the effects of land use and model scale on water partitioning and water ages using tracer-aided ecohydrological models
Quantification of ecohydrological sensitivities and their influencing factors at the seasonal scale
Canopy temperature and heat stress are increased by compound high air temperature and water stress and reduced by irrigation – a modeling analysis
Evaluating a landscape-scale daily water balance model to support spatially continuous representation of flow intermittency throughout stream networks
Testing water fluxes and storage from two hydrology configurations within the ORCHIDEE land surface model across US semi-arid sites
Novel Keeling-plot-based methods to estimate the isotopic composition of ambient water vapor
Disentangling temporal and population variability in plant root water uptake from stable isotopic analysis: when rooting depth matters in labeling studies
Calibration of hydrological models for ecologically relevant streamflow predictions: a trade-off between fitting well to data and estimating consistent parameter sets?
Spatial variability of mean daily estimates of actual evaporation from remotely sensed imagery and surface reference data
Quantification of soil water balance components based on continuous soil moisture measurement and the Richards equation in an irrigated agricultural field of a desert oasis
Mapping the suitability of groundwater-dependent vegetation in a semi-arid Mediterranean area
Modeling boreal forest evapotranspiration and water balance at stand and catchment scales: a spatial approach
The 18O ecohydrology of a grassland ecosystem – predictions and observations
A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions
Dynamic responses of DOC and DIC transport to different flow regimes in a subtropical small mountainous river
Evaluation of ORCHIDEE-MICT-simulated soil moisture over China and impacts of different atmospheric forcing data
Testing an optimality-based model of rooting zone water storage capacity in temperate forests
A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations
Tristan Jaouen, Lionel Benoit, Louis Héraut, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3629–3671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a multi-model approach to assess future changes in river flow intermittency across France under climate change. Combining projections from the Explore2 project with historical flow observations, logistic regressions estimate the daily probability of flow intermittency (PFI) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results suggest intensifying and prolonged dry spells throughout the 21st century, with southern France more affected, while uncertainty remains higher in northern regions.
Mingwei Li, Shouzhi Chen, Fanghua Hao, Nan Wang, Zhaofei Wu, Yue Xu, Jing Zhang, Yongqiang Zhang, and Yongshuo H. Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2081–2095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-driven shifts in vegetation phenology have a significant impact on hydrological processes. In this study, we integrated a process-based phenology module into the SWAT-Carbon model, which led to a substantial improvement in the simulation of vegetation dynamics and hydrological processes in the Jinsha River watershed. Our findings highlight the critical need to incorporate vegetation phenology into hydrological models to achieve a more accurate representation of ecohydrological processes.
Mozhgan A. Farahani, Andrew W. Wood, Guoqiang Tang, and Naoki Mizukami
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-38, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new strategy to calibrate large-domain land/hydrology models over diverse and extensive regions. Using SUMMA and mizuRoute models, our approach integrates catchment attributes, model parameters, and performance metrics to optimize streamflow simulations. By leveraging recent innovations in machine learning methods and concepts for hydrology, we improve calibration outcomes and enable regionalization to ungauged basins, which is valuable for national-scale water security studies.
Zhechen Zhang, Huade Guan, Erik Veneklaas, Kamini Singha, and Okke Batelaan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-749, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new method using sap flow and water potential data to estimate key plant water-use properties without destructive sampling. Testing on drooping sheoak showed that our approach captures seasonal changes in plant water transport and showed these hydraulic properties have seasonal variation. This method could improve models predicting how vegetation responds to drought and climate change.
Yiran Wang, Naika Meili, and Simone Fatichi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 381–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-381-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-381-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use climate model simulations and process-based ecohydrological modeling to assess the effects of solar radiation changes on hydrological variables. Results show that direct changes in solar radiation without the land–atmosphere feedback primarily affects sensible heat with limited effects on hydrology and vegetation. However, including land–atmosphere feedbacks exacerbates the effects of radiation changes on evapotranspiration and modifies vegetation productivity.
Anne Imig, Francesca Perosa, Carolina Iwane Hotta, Sophia Klausner, Kristen Welsh, Yan Zheng, and Arno Rein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5459–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Hurricane Dorian led to salinization of groundwater resources on the island of Grand Bahama. We assessed the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) for restoring fresh groundwater. Furthermore, we applied a financial and an extended cost–benefit analysis for assessing ecosystem services supported by MAR and reforestation. As a first estimate, MAR could only provide a small contribution to the water demand. Reforestation measures were assessed to be financially profitable.
Jesús Sánchez-Dávila, Miquel De Cáceres, Jordi Vayreda, and Javier Retana
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3037–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3037-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3037-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forest blue water is determined by the climate, functional traits, and stand structure variables. The leaf area index (LAI) is the main driver of the trade-off between the blue and green water. Blue water is concentrated in the autumn–winter season, and deciduous trees can increase the relative blue water. The leaf phenology and seasonal distribution are determinants for the relative blue water.
Barry van Jaarsveld, Sandra M. Hauswirth, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2357–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought often manifests itself in vegetation; however, obtaining high-resolution remote-sensing products that are spatially and temporally consistent is difficult. In this study, we show that machine learning (ML) can fill data gaps in existing products. We also demonstrate that ML can be used as a downscaling tool. By relying on ML for gap filling and downscaling, we can obtain a more holistic view of the impacts of drought on vegetation.
Nicholas K. Corak, Jason A. Otkin, Trent W. Ford, and Lauren E. L. Lowman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1827-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate how dynamic vegetation interacts with the atmosphere during extreme drought events known as flash droughts. We find that plants nearly halt water and carbon exchanges and limit their growth during flash drought. This work has implications for how to account for changes in vegetation state during extreme drought events when making predictions under future climate scenarios.
Samuel Scherrer, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Zdenko Heyvaert, Michel Bechtold, Clement Albergel, Tarek S. El-Madany, and Wouter Dorigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4087–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explored different options for data assimilation (DA) of the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI). We found strong biases between LAI predicted by Noah-MP and observations. LAI DA that does not take these biases into account can induce unphysical patterns in the resulting LAI and flux estimates and leads to large changes in the climatology of root zone soil moisture. We tested two bias-correction approaches and explored alternative solutions to treating bias in LAI DA.
Luca Carraro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3733–3742, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3733-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mathematical models are key to the study of environmental processes in rivers. Such models often require information on river morphology from geographic information system (GIS) software, which hinders the use of replicable workflows. Here I present rivnet, an R package for simple, robust, GIS-free extraction and analysis of river networks. The package is designed so as to require minimal user input and is oriented towards ecohydrological, ecological and biogeochemical modeling.
Stephen K. Adams, Brian P. Bledsoe, and Eric D. Stein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3021–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Managing streams for environmental flows involves prioritizing healthy stream ecosystems while distributing water resources. Classifying streams of similar types is a useful step in developing environmental flows. Environmental flows are often developed on data-poor streams that must be modeled. This paper has developed a new method of classification that prioritizes model accuracy. The new method advances environmental streamflow management and modeling of data-poor watersheds.
Xinlei He, Yanping Li, Shaomin Liu, Tongren Xu, Fei Chen, Zhenhua Li, Zhe Zhang, Rui Liu, Lisheng Song, Ziwei Xu, Zhixing Peng, and Chen Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1583–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1583-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the role of integrating vegetation and multi-source soil moisture observations in regional climate models via a hybrid data assimilation and machine learning method. In particular, we show that this approach can improve land surface fluxes, near-surface atmospheric conditions, and land–atmosphere interactions by implementing detailed land characterization information in basins with complex underlying surfaces.
Marissa Kivi, Noemi Vergopolan, and Hamze Dokoohaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1173–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study attempts to provide a framework for direct integration of soil moisture observations collected from soil sensors and satellite imagery into process-based crop models for improving the representation of agricultural systems. The performance of this framework was evaluated across 19 sites times years for crop yield, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, tile flow drainage, and nitrate leaching.
Yunfan Zhang, Lei Cheng, Lu Zhang, Shujing Qin, Liu Liu, Pan Liu, and Yanghe Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6379–6397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear drought has been demonstrated to cause non-stationary rainfall–runoff relationship. But whether changes can invalidate the most fundamental method (i.e., paired-catchment method (PCM)) for separating vegetation change impacts is still unknown. Using paired-catchment data with 10-year drought, PCM is shown to still be reliable even in catchments with non-stationarity. A new framework is further proposed to separate impacts of two non-stationary drivers, using paired-catchment data.
Don A. White, Shiqi Ren, Daniel S. Mendham, Francisco Balocchi-Contreras, Richard P. Silberstein, Dean Meason, Andrés Iroumé, and Pablo Ramirez de Arellano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5357–5371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5357-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Of all the planting options for wood production and carbon storage, Eucalyptus species provoke the greatest concern about their effect on water resources. We compared Eucalyptus and Pinus species (the two most widely planted genera) by fitting a simple model to the published estimates of their annual water use. There was no significant difference between the two genera. This has important implications for the global debate around Eucalyptus and is an option for carbon forests.
Zhihui Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Daoxi Wang, Peiqing Xiao, Runliang Xia, Pengcheng Sun, and Feng Feng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5291–5314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Variable infiltration capacity simulation considering dynamic vegetation types and structural parameters is able to better capture the effect of temporally explicit vegetation change and climate variation in hydrological regimes. Vegetation greening including interannual LAI and intra-annual LAI temporal pattern change induced by large-scale ecological restoration and non-vegetation underlying surface change played dominant roles in the natural streamflow reduction of the Yellow River basin.
Pan Chen, Wenhong Li, and Keqi He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4875–4892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study assessed changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads in response to eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events over the Corn Belt, USA, using the SWAT model. Results showed that EP (CP) El Niño events improved (exacerbated) water quality in the region. Furthermore, EP El Niño had a much broader and longer impact on water quality at the outlets, but CP El Niño could lead to similar increases in TN/TP loads as EP El Niño at the specific watersheds.
Ralf Loritz, Maoya Bassiouni, Anke Hildebrandt, Sibylle K. Hassler, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4757–4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine a deep-learning approach that predicts sap flow with a hydrological model to improve soil moisture and transpiration estimates at the catchment scale. Our results highlight that hybrid-model approaches, combining machine learning with physically based models, are a promising way to improve our ability to make hydrological predictions.
Nicholas Jarvis, Jannis Groh, Elisabet Lewan, Katharina H. E. Meurer, Walter Durka, Cornelia Baessler, Thomas Pütz, Elvin Rufullayev, and Harry Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2277–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2277-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We apply an eco-hydrological model to data on soil water balance and grassland growth obtained at two sites with contrasting climates. Our results show that the grassland in the drier climate had adapted by developing deeper roots, which maintained water supply to the plants in the face of severe drought. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering such plastic responses of plant traits to environmental stress in the modelling of soil water balance and plant growth under climate change.
Remko C. Nijzink, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, and Stanislaus J. Schymanski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 525–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-525-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-525-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most models that simulate water and carbon exchanges with the atmosphere rely on information about vegetation, but optimality models predict vegetation properties based on general principles. Here, we use the Vegetation Optimality Model (VOM) to predict vegetation behaviour at five savanna sites. The VOM overpredicted vegetation cover and carbon uptake during the wet seasons but also performed similarly to conventional models, showing that vegetation optimality is a promising approach.
Hongyu Li, Yi Luo, Lin Sun, Xiangdong Li, Changkun Ma, Xiaolei Wang, Ting Jiang, and Haoyang Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-17-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drying soil layers (DSLs) have been extensively reported in artificial forestland in the Loess Plateau, China, which has limited water resources and deep loess. To address this issue relating to plant root–soil water interactions, this study developed a root growth model that simulates both the dynamic rooting depth and fine-root distribution. Evaluation vs. field data proved a positive performance. Long-term simulation reproduced the evolution process of the DSLs and revealed their mechanisms.
Jiancong Chen, Baptiste Dafflon, Anh Phuong Tran, Nicola Falco, and Susan S. Hubbard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6041–6066, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The novel hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach uses a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) with only meteorological and remote-sensing inputs. We developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability of HPM. The results indicate HPM is capable of providing ET and Reco estimations in challenging mountainous systems and enhances our understanding of watershed dynamics at sparsely monitored watersheds.
Jiehao Zhang, Yulong Zhang, Ge Sun, Conghe Song, Matthew P. Dannenberg, Jiangfeng Li, Ning Liu, Kerong Zhang, Quanfa Zhang, and Lu Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5623–5640, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify how vegetation greening impacts the capacity of water supply, we built a hybrid model and conducted a case study using the upper Han River basin (UHRB) that serves as the water source area to the world’s largest water diversion project. Vegetation greening in the UHRB during 2001–2018 induced annual water yield (WY) greatly decreased. Vegetation greening also increased the possibility of drought and reduced a quarter of WY on average during drought periods.
Aaron J. Neill, Christian Birkel, Marco P. Maneta, Doerthe Tetzlaff, and Chris Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4861–4886, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Structural changes (cover and height of vegetation plus tree canopy characteristics) to forests during regeneration on degraded land affect how water is partitioned between streamflow, groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. Partitioning most strongly deviates from baseline conditions during earlier stages of regeneration with dense forest, while recovery may be possible as the forest matures and opens out. This has consequences for informing sustainable landscape restoration strategies.
Jianning Ren, Jennifer C. Adam, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Erin J. Hanan, Christina L. Tague, Mingliang Liu, Crystal A. Kolden, and John T. Abatzoglou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4681–4699, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4681-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain pine beetle outbreaks have caused widespread tree mortality. While some research shows that water yield increases after trees are killed, many others document no change or a decrease. The climatic and environmental mechanisms driving hydrologic response to tree mortality are not well understood. We demonstrated that the direction of hydrologic response is a function of multiple factors, so previous studies do not necessarily conflict with each other; they represent different conditions.
Haidong Zhao, Gretchen F. Sassenrath, Mary Beth Kirkham, Nenghan Wan, and Xiaomao Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4357–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study was done to develop an improved soil temperature model for the USA Great Plains by using common weather station variables as inputs. After incorporating knowledge of estimated soil moisture and observed daily snow depth, the improved model showed a near 50 % gain in performance compared to the original model. We conclude that our improved model can better estimate soil temperature at the surface soil layer where most hydrological and biological processes occur.
Brandon P. Sloan, Sally E. Thompson, and Xue Feng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4259–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4259-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Plants affect the global water and carbon cycles by modifying their water use and carbon intake in response to soil moisture. Global climate models represent this response with either simple empirical models or complex physical models. We reveal that the latter improves predictions in plants with large flow resistance; however, adding dependence on atmospheric moisture demand to the former matches performance of the latter, leading to a new tool for improving carbon and water cycle predictions.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Michael Bliss Singer, Mark O. Cuthbert, Dar Roberts, Kelly K. Caylor, Romy Sabathier, and John Stella
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3713–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Intensified drying of soil and grassland vegetation is raising the impact of fire severity and extent in Southern California. While browned grassland is a common sight during the dry season, this study has shown that there is a pronounced shift in the timing of senescence, due to changing climate conditions favoring milder winter temperatures and increased precipitation variability. Vegetation may be limited in its ability to adapt to these shifts, as drought periods become more frequent.
Mikael Gillefalk, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Reinhard Hinkelmann, Lena-Marie Kuhlemann, Aaron Smith, Fred Meier, Marco P. Maneta, and Chris Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3635–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a tracer-aided ecohydrological model to quantify water flux–storage–age interactions for three urban vegetation types: trees, shrub and grass. The model results showed that evapotranspiration increased in the order shrub < grass < trees during one growing season. Additionally, we could show how
infiltration hotspotscreated by runoff from sealed onto vegetated surfaces can enhance both evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge.
Yuting Yang, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Yongqiang Zhang, Shilong Piao, Shushi Peng, and Hylke E. Beck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3411–3427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3411-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3411-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed an analytical ecohydrological model that considers three aspects of vegetation response to eCO2 (i.e., stomatal response, LAI response, and rooting depth response) to detect the impact of eCO2 on continental runoff over the past 3 decades globally. Our findings suggest a minor role of eCO2 on the global runoff changes, yet highlight the negative runoff–eCO2 response in semiarid and arid regions which may further threaten the limited water resource there.
Yanlan Liu, Nataniel M. Holtzman, and Alexandra G. Konings
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2399-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The flow of water through plants varies with species-specific traits. To determine how they vary across the world, we mapped the traits that best allowed a model to match microwave satellite data. We also defined average values across a few clusters of trait behavior. These form a tractable solution for use in large-scale models. Transpiration estimates using these clusters were more accurate than if using plant functional types. We expect our maps to improve transpiration forecasts.
Aaron Smith, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Lukas Kleine, Marco Maneta, and Chris Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2239–2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a tracer-aided ecohydrological model on a mixed land use catchment in northeastern Germany to quantify water flux–storage–age interactions at four model grid resolutions. The model's ability to reproduce spatio-temporal flux–storage–age interactions decreases with increasing model grid sizes. Similarly, larger model grids showed vegetation-influenced changes in blue and green water partitioning. Simulations reveal the value of measured soil and stream isotopes for model calibration.
Yiping Hou, Mingfang Zhang, Xiaohua Wei, Shirong Liu, Qiang Li, Tijiu Cai, Wenfei Liu, Runqi Zhao, and Xiangzhuo Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1447–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ecohydrological sensitivity, defined as the response intensity of streamflow to vegetation change, indicates the hydrological sensitivity to vegetation change. The study revealed seasonal ecohydrological sensitivities were highly variable, depending on climate condition and watershed attributes. Dry season ecohydrological sensitivity was mostly determined by topography, soil and vegetation, while wet season ecohydrological sensitivity was mainly controlled by soil, landscape and vegetation.
Xiangyu Luan and Giulia Vico
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1411–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1411-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1411-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Crop yield is reduced by heat and water stress, particularly when they co-occur. We quantify the joint effects of (unpredictable) air temperature and soil water availability on crop heat stress via a mechanistic model. Larger but more infrequent precipitation increased crop canopy temperatures. Keeping crops well watered via irrigation could reduce canopy temperature but not enough to always exclude heat damage. Thus, irrigation is only a partial solution to adapt to warmer and drier climates.
Songyan Yu, Hong Xuan Do, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Nick R. Bond, Peirong Lin, and Mark J. Kennard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5279–5295, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5279-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is a growing interest globally in the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of intermittently flowing streams and rivers. We developed an approach to quantify catchment-wide flow intermittency over long time frames. Modelled patterns of flow intermittency in eastern Australia revealed highly dynamic behaviour in space and time. The developed approach is transferable to other parts of the world and can inform hydro-ecological understanding and management of intermittent streams.
Natasha MacBean, Russell L. Scott, Joel A. Biederman, Catherine Ottlé, Nicolas Vuichard, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Kolb, Sabina Dore, Marcy Litvak, and David J. P. Moore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5203–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, 2020
Yusen Yuan, Taisheng Du, Honglang Wang, and Lixin Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4491–4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The isotopic composition of ambient water vapor is an important source of atmospheric water vapor and has not been able to be estimated to date using the Keeling plot approach. Here we proposed two new methods to estimate the isotopic composition of ambient water vapor: one using the intersection point method and another relying on the intermediate value theorem.
Valentin Couvreur, Youri Rothfuss, Félicien Meunier, Thierry Bariac, Philippe Biron, Jean-Louis Durand, Patricia Richard, and Mathieu Javaux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3057–3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Isotopic labeling of soil water is a broadly used tool for tracing the origin of water extracted by plants and computing root water uptake (RWU) profiles with multisource mixing models. In this study, we show how a method such as this may misconstrue time series of xylem water isotopic composition as the temporal dynamics of RWU by simulating data collected during a tall fescue rhizotron experiment with an isotope-enabled physical soil–root model accounting for variability in root traits.
Thibault Hallouin, Michael Bruen, and Fiachra E. O'Loughlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1031–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1031-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1031-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrological model was used to compare different parameterisation strategies in view of predicting ecologically relevant streamflow indices in 33 Irish catchments. Compared for 14 different periods, a strategy fitting simulated and observed streamflow indices yielded better performance than fitting simulated and observed streamflow, but it also yielded a less consistent ensemble of parameter sets, suggesting that these indices may not be hydrologically relevant for model parameterisation.
Robert N. Armstrong, John W. Pomeroy, and Lawrence W. Martz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4891–4907, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4891-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4891-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Digital and thermal images taken near midday were used to scale daily point observations of key factors driving actual-evaporation estimates across a complex Canadian Prairie landscape. Point estimates of actual evaporation agreed well with observed values via eddy covariance. Impacts of spatial variations on areal estimates were minor, and no covariance was found between model parameters driving the energy term. The methods can be applied further to improve land surface parameterisations.
Zhongkai Li, Hu Liu, Wenzhi Zhao, Qiyue Yang, Rong Yang, and Jintao Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of soil moisture measurements from the middle Heihe River basin of China was used to test the potential of a soil moisture database in estimating the soil water balance components (SWBCs). We determined SWBCs using a method that combined the soil water balance method and the inverse Richards equation. This work confirmed that relatively reasonable estimations of the SWBCs in coarse-textured sandy soils can be derived using soil moisture measurements.
Inês Gomes Marques, João Nascimento, Rita M. Cardoso, Filipe Miguéns, Maria Teresa Condesso de Melo, Pedro M. M. Soares, Célia M. Gouveia, and Cathy Kurz Besson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3525-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3525-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cork woodlands are very particular agroforestry systems present in a confined area of the Mediterranean Basin. They are of great importance due to their high socioeconomic value; however, a decrease in water availability has put this system in danger. In this paper we build a model that explains this system's tree-species distribution in southern Portugal from environmental variables. This could help predict their future distribution under changing climatic conditions.
Samuli Launiainen, Mingfu Guan, Aura Salmivaara, and Antti-Jussi Kieloaho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3457–3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3457-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal forest evapotranspiration and water cycle is modeled at stand and catchment scale using physiological and physical principles, open GIS data and daily weather data. The approach can predict daily evapotranspiration well across Nordic coniferous-dominated stands and successfully reproduces daily streamflow and annual evapotranspiration across boreal headwater catchments in Finland. The model is modular and simple and designed for practical applications over large areas using open data.
Regina T. Hirl, Hans Schnyder, Ulrike Ostler, Rudi Schäufele, Inga Schleip, Sylvia H. Vetter, Karl Auerswald, Juan C. Baca Cabrera, Lisa Wingate, Margaret M. Barbour, and Jérôme Ogée
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2581–2600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2581-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2581-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the system-scale understanding of the propagation of the oxygen isotope signal (δ18O) of rain through soil and xylem to leaf water in a temperate drought-prone grassland. Biweekly δ18O observations of the water pools made during seven growing seasons were accurately reproduced by the 18O-enabled process-based model MuSICA. While water uptake occurred from shallow soil depths throughout dry and wet periods, leaf water 18O enrichment responded to both soil and atmospheric moisture.
Christoph Schürz, Brigitta Hollosi, Christoph Matulla, Alexander Pressl, Thomas Ertl, Karsten Schulz, and Bano Mehdi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1211–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1211-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
For two Austrian catchments we simulated discharge and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) considering future changes of climate, land use, and point source emissions together with the impact of different setups and parametrizations of the implemented eco-hydrological model. In a comprehensive analysis we identified the dominant sources of uncertainty for the simulation of discharge and NO3-N and further examined how specific properties of the model inputs control the future simulation results.
Yu-Ting Shih, Pei-Hao Chen, Li-Chin Lee, Chien-Sen Liao, Shih-Hao Jien, Fuh-Kwo Shiah, Tsung-Yu Lee, Thomas Hein, Franz Zehetner, Chung-Te Chang, and Jr-Chuan Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6579–6590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6579-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6579-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
DOC and DIC export in Taiwan shows that the annual DOC and DIC fluxes were 2.7–4.8 and 48.4–54.3 ton C km2 yr1, respectively, which were approximately 2 and 20 times higher than the global means of 1.4 and 2.6 ton C km2 yr1, respectively.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Heike Lischke, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To simulate the water balance of, e.g., a forest plot, it is important to estimate the maximum volume of water available to plants. This depends on soil properties and the average depth of roots. Rooting depth has proven challenging to estimate. Here, we applied a model assuming that plants dimension their roots to optimize their carbon budget. We compared its results with values obtained by calibrating a dynamic water balance model. In most cases, there is good agreement between both methods.
Gordon C. O'Brien, Chris Dickens, Eleanor Hines, Victor Wepener, Retha Stassen, Leo Quayle, Kelly Fouchy, James MacKenzie, P. Mark Graham, and Wayne G. Landis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 957–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-957-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-957-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In global water resource allocation, robust tools are required to establish environmental flows. In addition, tools should characterize past, present and future consequences of altered flows and non-flow variables to social and ecological management objectives. PROBFLO is a risk assessment method designed to meet best practice principles for regional-scale holistic E-flow assessments. The approach has been developed in Africa and applied across the continent.
Cited articles
Abate, B. Z., Alaminie, A. A., Assefa, T. T., Tigabu, T. B., and He, L.: Modeling climate change impacts on blue and green water of the Kobo-Golina River in data-scarce upper Danakil basin, Ethiopia, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 53, 101756, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101756, 2024.
Abatzoglou, J. T., Dobrowski, S. Z., Parks, S. A., and Hegewisch, K. C.: Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015, Scientific Data, 5, 170191, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.191, 2017.
Abera, K., Crespo, O., Seid, J., and Mequanent, F.: Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa, Environ. Syst. Res., 7, 4, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-018-0107-z, 2018.
Adam, M., Van Bussel, L. G. J., Leffelaar, P. A., Van Keulen, H., and Ewert, F.: Effects of modelling detail on simulated potential crop yields under a wide range of climatic conditions, Ecol. Model., 222, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.001, 2011.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop Evapotranspiration, Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, 326 pp., ISBN 92-5-104219-5, https://www.fao.org/4/x0490e/x0490e00.htm (last access: 8 November 2023), 1998.
Anandhi, A., Frei, A., Pierson, D. C., Schneiderman, E. M., Zion, M. S., Lounsbury, D., and Matonse, A. H.: Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009104, 2011.
Araya, A., Stroosnijder, L., Girmay, G., and Keesstra, S. D.: Crop coefficient, yield response to water stress and water productivity of teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.)), Agr. Water Manage., 98, 775–783, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.001, 2011.
Araya, A., Girma, A., and Getachew, F.: Exploring Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Two Contrasting Agro-Ecologies of Ethiopia, Asian J. Appl. Sci. Eng., 4, 27–37, 2015.
Assaye, H., Nyssen, J., Poesen, J., Lemma, H., Meshesha, D. T., Wassie, A., Adgo, E., and Frankl, A.: Curve number calibration for measuring impacts of land management in sub-humid Ethiopia, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 35, 100819, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100819, 2021.
Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A. K., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., and Zhu, Y.: Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 143–147, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470, 2015.
Becker, R., Schüth, C., Merz, R., Khaliq, T., Usman, M., aus der Beek, T., Kumar, R., and Schulz, S.: Increased heat stress reduces future yields of three major crops in Pakistan's Punjab region despite intensification of irrigation, Agr. Water Manage., 281, 108243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108243, 2023.
Bieger, K., Arnold, J. G., Rathjens, H., White, M. J., Bosch, D. D., Allen, P. M., Volk, M., and Srinivasan, R.: Introduction to SWAT+, A Completely Restructured Version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 53, 115–130, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12482, 2017.
Borgomeo, E., Khan, H. F., Heino, M., Zaveri, E., Kummu, M., Brown, C., and Jägerskog, A.: Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 124030, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc587, 2020.
Buchhorn, M., Smets, B., Bertels, L., De Roo, B., Lesiv, M., Tsendbazar, N.-E., Li, L., and Tarko, A.: Copernicus Global Land Operations ”Vegetation and Energy” “CGLOPS-1,” Copernicus Glob. L. Oper., 1–93, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3938963, 2020.
Budyko, M. I.: Climate and life, Academic Press, New York, 508 pp., ISBN 0121394506, 1974.
Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., and Guarino, L.: Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation, Global Environ. Chang., 19, 317–325, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003, 2009.
Čerkasova, N., White, M., Arnold, J., Bieger, K., Allen, P., Gao, J., Gambone, M., Meki, M., Kiniry, J., and Gassman, P. W.: Field scale SWAT+ modeling of corn and soybean yields for the contiguous United States: National Agroecosystem Model Development, Agr. Syst., 210, 103695, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103695, 2023.
Chiarelli, D. D., Passera, C., Rosa, L., Davis, K. F., D'Odorico, P., and Rulli, M. C.: The green and blue crop water requirement WATNEEDS model and its global gridded outputs, Sci. Data, 7, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00612-0, 2020.
Conway, D. and Vincent, K.: Conversations About Climate Risk, Adaptation and Resilience in Africa, Springer Nature, 147–162, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6_9, 2021.
CSA: Summary and statistical report of the 2007 population and housing census, Addis Ababa, Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia, 113 pp., https://www.ethiopianreview.com/pdf/001/Cen2007_firstdraft(1).pdf (last access: 21 November 2023), 2007.
CSA: Agricultural Sample Survey 2010–2011 (2003 E.C), (last access: 10 October 2023), 2010.
Degife, A. W., Zabel, F., and Mauser, W.: Climate change impacts on potential maize yields in Gambella Region, Ethiopia, Reg. Environ. Change, 21, 60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01773-3, 2021.
Doorenbos, J. and Kassam, A. H.: Paper 33. Yield Response to water, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, 203 pp., ISBN: 92-5-100744-6, 1979.
Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, E., Hamer, P. D., Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., de Jeu, R., Kidd, R., Lahoz, W., Liu, Y. Y., Miralles, D., Mistelbauer, T., Nicolai-Shaw, N., Parinussa, R., Pratola, C., Reimer, C., van der Schalie, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Smolander, T., and Lecomte, P.: ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 185–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001, 2017.
Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J.: The New Blue and Green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resources Planning and Management, J. Water Res. Pl., 132, 129–132, 2006.
Fan, J., McConkey, B., Wang, H., and Janzen, H.: Root distribution by depth for temperate agricultural crops, Field Crop. Res., 189, 68–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.02.013, 2016.
FAO: Crops and climate change impact briefs. Climate-smart agriculture for more sustainable, resilient, and equitable food systems, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, 202 pp., https://doi.org/10.4060/cb8030en, 2022.
FDRE: Ethiopia's Climate Resilient Green Economy: National Adaptation Plan, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 86 pp., https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/NAP_Ethiopia_2019.pdf (last access: 21 November 2023), 2019.
Fischer, G., Nachtergaele, F., van Velthuizen, H., Chiozza, F., Franceschini, G., Hnery, M., Muchoney, D., and Tramberend, S.: Global agro-ecological zone V4 – Model documentation, https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4744en, 2021.
Foster, T. and Brozović, N.: Simulating Crop-Water Production Functions Using Crop Growth Models to Support Water Policy Assessments, Ecol. Econ., 152, 9–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.019, 2018.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – A new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Nat. Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Geerts, S. and Raes, D.: Deficit irrigation as an on-farm strategy to maximize crop water productivity in dry areas, Agr. Water Manage., 96, 1275–1284, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2009.04.009, 2009.
Grossi, A. and Dinku, T.: From research to practice: Adapting agriculture to climate today for tomorrow in Ethiopia, Front. Clim., 4, 931514, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.931514, 2022.
GYGA: Global Yield Gap and Water Productivity Atlas, https://www.yieldgap.org, last access: 13 August 2024.
Hadgu, G., Tesfaye, K., and Mamo, G.: Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 121, 733–747, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1261-5, 2015.
Hamby, D.: A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models, Environ. Monit. Assess., 32, 135–154, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00547132, 1994.
Hartmann, M. and Six, J.: Soil structure and microbiome functions in agroecosystems, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 4–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00366-w, 2023.
Hatfield, J. L. and Dold, C.: Water-use efficiency: Advances and challenges in a changing climate, Front. Plant Sci., 10, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00103, 2019.
Hawkins, R. H., Moglen, G. E., Ward, T. J., and Woodward, D. E.: Updating the Curve Number: Task Group Report, in: Watershed Management 2020, ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers), https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/9780784483060.012 (last access: 14 October 2023), 2020.
He, J., Ma, B., and Tian, J.: Water production function and optimal irrigation schedule for rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation with drip irrigation under plastic film-mulched, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20652-3, 2022.
Holzworth, D. P., Huth, N. I., deVoil, P. G., Zurcher, E. J., Herrmann, N. I., McLean, G., Chenu, K., van Oosterom, E. J., Snow, V., Murphy, C., Moore, A. D., Brown, H., Whish, J. P. M., Verrall, S., Fainges, J., Bell, L. W., Peake, A. S., Poulton, P. L., Hochman, Z., Thorburn, P. J., Gaydon, D. S., Dalgliesh, N. P., Rodriguez, D., Cox, H., Chapman, S., Doherty, A., Teixeira, E., Sharp, J., Cichota, R., Vogeler, I., Li, F. Y., Wang, E., Hammer, G. L., Robertson, M. J., Dimes, J. P., Whitbread, A. M., Hunt, J., van Rees, H., McClelland, T., Carberry, P. S., Hargreaves, J. N. G., MacLeod, N., McDonald, C., Harsdorf, J., Wedgwood, S., and Keating, B. A.: APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation, Environ. Modell. Softw., 62, 327–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.009, 2014.
Hoogeveen, J., Faurès, J.-M., Peiser, L., Burke, J., and van de Giesen, N.: GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3829–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3829-2015, 2015.
Hsiao, T. C., Heng, L., Steduto, P., Rojas-Lara, B., Raes, D., and Fereres, E.: Aquacrop-The FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: III. Parameterization and testing for maize, Agron. J., 101, 448–459, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0218s, 2009.
Hurni, H.: Soil and Water Conservation in Ethiopia: Guidlines for Development Agents, Bern Open Publishing (BOP), 117–123, https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.80013, 2016.
IFPRI and CSA: Atlas of the Ethiopian Rural Economy, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washinton DC, https://doi.org/10.2499/0896291545, 2006.
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T. S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S., Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T., Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., and Rosenzweig, C.: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models, Nat. Food, 2, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y, 2021.
Jimma, T. B., Demissie, T., Diro, G. T., Ture, K., Terefe, T., and Solomon, D.: Spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture over Ethiopia and its teleconnections with remote and local drivers, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 151, 1911–1929, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04335-7, 2023.
Jones, J. W., Hoogenboom, G., Porter, C. H., Boote, K. J., Batchelor, W. D., Hunt, L. A., Wilkens, P. W., Singh, U., Gijsman, A. J., and Ritchie, J. T.: The DSSAT cropping system model, Eur. J. Agron., 235–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7, 2003.
Kang, Y., Khan, S., and Ma, X.: Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – A review, Prog. Nat. Sci., 19, 1665–1674, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnsc.2009.08.001, 2009.
Kassawmar, T., Zeleke, G., Bantider, A., Gessesse, G. D., and Abraha, L.: A synoptic land change assessment of Ethiopia's Rainfed Agricultural Area for evidence-based agricultural ecosystem management, Heliyon, 4, e00914, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00914, 2018.
Kassaye, A. Y., Shao, G., Wang, X., Shifaw, E., and Wu, S.: Impact of climate change on the staple food crops yield in Ethiopia: implications for food security, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 145, 327–343, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03635-8, 2021.
Kassie, B. T., Rötter, R. P., Hengsdijk, H., Asseng, S., Van Ittersum, M. K., Kahiluoto, H., and Van Keulen, H.: Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: Challenges for rainfed crop production, J. Agr. Sci., 152, 58–74, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859612000986, 2014.
Kukal, M. S. and Irmak, S.: Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U. S. Great Plains Agricultural Production, Nat. Sci. Rep., 8, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21848-2, 2018.
Kummu, M., Heino, M., Taka, M., Varis, O., and Viviroli, D.: Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space, One Earth, 4, 720–729, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017, 2021.
Laderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Prager, S. D., Osorio, D., Krendelsberger, A., Zougmore, R. B., Charbonneau, B., van Dijk, H., Madurga-Lopez, I., and Pacillo, G.: The importance of food systems in a climate crisis for peace and security in the Sahel, Int. Rev. Red Cross, 103, 995–1028, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383122000170, 2021.
Lala, J., Yang, M., Wang, G., and Block, P.: Utilizing rainy season onset predictions to enhance maize yields in Ethiopia, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054035, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf9c9, 2021.
Li, K., Pan, J., Xiong, W., Xie, W., and Ali, T.: The impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on global maize production and trade, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 17268, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22228-7, 2022.
Liu, X., Liu, W., Tang, Q., Liu, B., Wada, Y., and Yang, H.: Global Agricultural Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating Blue and Green Water Availability Under Future Climate Change, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002567, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002567, 2022.
Lobell, D. B., Cassman, K. G., and Field, C. B.: Crop yield gaps: Their importance, magnitudes, and causes, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 34, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740, 2009.
Lobell, D. B., Bänziger, M., Magorokosho, C., and Vivek, B.: Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 42–45, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1043, 2011a.
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., and Costa-Roberts, J.: Climate Trends and Global crop production since 1980, Science, 333, 1186–1189, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206376, 2011b.
Makurira, H., Savenije, H. H. G., Uhlenbrook, S., Rockström, J., and Senzanje, A.: Investigating the water balance of on-farm techniques for improved crop productivity in rainfed systems: A case study of Makanya catchment, Tanzania, Phys. Chem. Earth, 34, 93–98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2008.04.003, 2009.
Manik, S. M. N., Pengilley, G., Dean, G., Field, B., Shabala, S., and Zhou, M.: Soil and crop management practices to minimize the impact of waterlogging on crop productivity, Front. Plant Sci., 10, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00140, 2019.
Markos, D., Worku, W., and Mamo, G.: Exploring adaptation responses of maize to climate change scenarios in southern central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, Sci. Rep.-UK, 13, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39795-y, 2023.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1577–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1577-2011, 2011.
Meng, M., Pu, X., Li, S., Zhang, Y., Wang, J., Xu, H., Hu, Y., Wang, J., and Wang, Y.: Sensitivities of rainfed maize production to root zone soil water, air temperature and shortwave radiation in the Sanjiang Plain under sub- humid cool-temperate climates, Water-Energy Nexus, 6, 131–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2023.09.003, 2023.
Moges, D. M. and Gangadhara, B. H.: Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia, J. Water Clim. Change, 12, 1229–1244, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.058, 2021.
Mohammadi, S., Rydgren, K., Bakkestuen, V., and Gillespie, M. A. K.: Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway, Sci. Rep.-UK, 13, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30813-7, 2023.
Molden, D., Vithanage, M., de Fraiture, C., Faures, J. M., Gordon, L., Molle, F., and Peden, D.: Water Availability and Its Use in Agriculture, Treatise Water Sci., 4, 707–732, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00108-1, 2011.
Mthandi, J., Kahimba, F. C., Tarimo, A. K. P. R., Salim, B. A., and Lowole, M. W.: Root zone soil moisture redistribution in maize (Zea mays L.) under different water application regimes, Agric. Sci., 4, 521–528, https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2013.410070, 2013.
Mu, Q., Zhao, M., and Running, S. W.: MODIS Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration (ET) Product (NASA MOD16A2/A3) Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document Collection 5, NASA, https://modis-land.gsfc.nasa.gov/pdf/MOD16ATBD.pdf (last access: 22 August 2024), 2019.
Müller, C., Cramer, W., Hare, W. L., and Lotze-Campen, H.: Climate change risks for African agriculture, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 4313–4315, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1015078108, 2011.
Muluneh, A.: Impact of climate change on soil water balance, maize production, and potential adaptation measures in the Rift Valley drylands of Ethiopia, J. Arid Environ., 179, 104195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104195, 2020.
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Agustí-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Choulga, M., Harrigan, S., Hersbach, H., Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Piles, M., Rodríguez-Fernández, N. J., Zsoter, E., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021.
Nyakudya, I. W., Stroosnijder, L., and Nyagumbo, I.: Infiltration and planting pits for improved water management and maize yield in semi-arid Zimbabwe, Agr. Water Manage., 141, 30–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.04.010, 2014.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Park, S., Chun, J. A., Kim, D., and Sitthikone, M.: Climate risk management for the rainfed rice yield in Lao PDR using APCC MME seasonal forecasts, Agr. Water Manage., 274, 107976, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107976, 2022.
Peleg, N., Molnar, P., Burlando, P., and Fatichi, S.: Exploring stochastic climate uncertainty in space and time using a gridded hourly weather generator, J. Hydrol., 571, 627–641, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.010, 2019.
Pittelkow, C. M., Linquist, B. A., Lundy, M. E., Liang, X., van Groenigen, K. J., Lee, J., van Gestel, N., Six, J., Venterea, R. T., and van Kessel, C.: When does no-till yield more? A global meta-analysis, Field Crop. Res., 183, 156–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.07.020, 2015.
Poggio, L., de Sousa, L. M., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Kempen, B., Ribeiro, E., and Rossiter, D.: SoilGrids 2.0: producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty, SOIL, 7, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-217-2021, 2021.
Qi, J., Lee, S., Zhang, X., Yang, Q., McCarty, G. W., and Moglen, G. E.: Effects of surface runoff and infiltration partition methods on hydrological modeling: A comparison of four schemes in two watersheds in the Northeastern US, J. Hydrol., 581, 124415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124415, 2020.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., and Fereres, E.: Aquacrop-The FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: II. main algorithms and software description, Agron. J., 101, 438–447, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0140s, 2009.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., and Fereres, E.: AquaCrop Version 7.1 Reference manual, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, 178 pp., https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/3c388b6e-5e99-4da3-b457-8becb9b926d7/content (last access: 13 October 2023), 2022.
Ramirez-Villegas, J., Koehler, A. K., and Challinor, A. J.: Assessing uncertainty and complexity in regional-scale crop model simulations, Eur. J. Agron., 88, 84–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2015.11.021, 2017.
Rettie, F. M., Gayler, S., Weber, T. K. D., Tesfaye, K., and Streck, T.: Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis, PLoS One, 17, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262951, 2022.
Rezaei, E. E., Webber, H., Asseng, S., Boote, K., Durand, J. L., Ewert, F., Martre, P., and MacCarthy, D. S.: Climate change impacts on crop yields, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 16, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0, 2023.
Richards, L. A.: Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums, J. Appl. Phys., 1, 318–333, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1745010, 1931.
Ringersma, J., Batjes, N., and Dent, D.: Green Water: definitions and data for assessment, ISRIC – World Soil Information, ISRIC – World Soil Information, Report number: 2003/2, 83 pp., 2003.
Rockström, J.: On-farm green water estimates as a tool for increased food production in water scarce regions, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 24, 375–383, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(99)00016-7, 1999.
Rockström, J.: Water for food and nature in drought-prone tropics: Vapour shift in rain-fed agriculture, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 358, 1997–2009, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1400, 2003.
Rockström, J. and Gordon, L.: Assessment of Green Water Flows to Sustain Major Biomes of the World: Implications for Future Ecohydrological Landscape Management, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 26, 843–851, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00096-X, 2001.
Rockström, J., Karlberg, L., Wani, S. P., Barron, J., Hatibu, N., Oweis, T., Bruggeman, A., Farahani, J., and Qiang, Z.: Managing water in rainfed agriculture-The need for a paradigm shift, Agr. Water Manage., 97, 543–550, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2009.09.009, 2010.
Rodell, M., Houser, P. R., Jambor, U., Gottschalck, J., Mitchell, K., Meng, C.-J., Arsenault, K., Cosgrove, B., Radakovich, J., Bosilovich, M., Entin, J. K., Walker, J. P., Lohmann, D., and Toll, D.: The Global Land Data Assimilation System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 381–394, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-381, 2004.
Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H., and Jones, J. W.: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3268–3273, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110, 2014.
Ross, C. W., Prihodko, L., Anchang, J., Kumar, S., Ji, W., and Hanan, N. P.: HYSOGs250m, global gridded hydrologic soil groups for curve-number-based runoff modeling, Sci. Data, 5, 180091, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.91, 2018.
Rui, H. L. and Beaudoing, H.: README Document for NASA GLDAS Version 2 Data Products, https://hydro1.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/GLDAS/README_GLDAS2.pdf (last access: 22 August 2024), 2020.
Sapino, F., Pérez-Blanco, C. D., Gutiérrez-Martín, C., García-Prats, A., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Influence of crop-water production functions on the expected performance of water pricing policies in irrigated agriculture, Agr. Water Manage., 259, 107248, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107248, 2022.
Saxton, K. E. and Rawls, W. J.: Soil Water Characteristic Estimates by Texture and Organic Matter for Hydrologic Solutions, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 70, 1569–1578, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2005.0117, 2006.
Schlenker, W. and Lobell, D. B.: Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 014010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010, 2010.
Schuol, J., Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, H., Srinivasan, R., and Zehnder, A. J. B.: Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa, Water Resour. Res., 44, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006609, 2008.
Schwartz, R. C., Domínguez, A., Pardo, J. J., Colaizzi, P. D., Baumhardt, R. L., and Bell, J. M.: A crop coefficient–based water use model with non-uniform root distribution, Agr. Water Manage., 228, 105892, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105892, 2020.
Segele, Z. T. and Lamb, P. J.: Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 153–180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, 2005.
Senay, G. B., Kagone, S., and Velpuri, N. M.: Operational Global Actual Evapotranspiration, Sensors, 20, 1915, https://doi.org/10.3390/s20071915, 2020.
Serur, A. B.: Modeling blue and green water resources availability at the basin and sub-basin level under changing climate in the Weyb River basin in Ethiopia, Sci. African, 7, e00299, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00299, 2020.
Setegn, S. G., Rayner, D., Melesse, A. M., Dargahi, B., Srinivasan, R., and Wörman, A.: Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Water Resources Variability in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia, in: Nile River basin climate, hydrology and water use, edited by: Melesse, A. M., Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_12, 2011.
Siad, S. M., Iacobellis, V., Zdruli, P., Gioia, A., Stavi, I., and Hoogenboom, G.: A review of coupled hydrologic and crop growth models, Agr. Water Manage., 224, 105746, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105746, 2019.
Sishu, F. K., Tilahun, S. A., Schmitter, P., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Revisiting the Thornthwaite Mather procedure for baseflow and groundwater storage predictions in sloping and mountainous regions, J. Hydrol. X, 24, 100179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100179, 2024.
Smedema, L. K. and Rycroft, D. W.: Land drainage: planning and design of agricultural drainage systems, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, New York, 379 pp., ISBN 0801416299, 1983.
Smilovic, M., Gleeson, T., and Adamowski, J.: Crop kites: Determining crop-water production functions using crop coefficients and sensitivity indices, Adv. Water Resour., 97, 193–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.09.010, 2016.
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., Naumann, G., Carrao, H., and Barbosa, P.: Towards identifying areas at climatological risk of desertification using the Köppen-Geiger classification and FAO aridity index, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 2210–2222, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4124, 2015.
Sposito, G.: Green Water and Global Food Security, Vadose Zone J., 12, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2013.02.0041, 2013.
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Raes, D., and Fereres, E.: Aquacrop-the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: I. concepts and underlying principles, Agron. J., 101, 426–437, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0139s, 2009.
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E., and Raes, D.: Crop yield response to water, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, 505 pp., ISBN 978-92-5-107274-5, 2012.
Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI): Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture, Stockholm, ISBN 978-91-88495-14-3, https://siwi.org/publications/unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2/ (last access: 17 November 2023), 2018.
Stöckle, C. O., Donatelli, M., and Nelson, R.: CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Eur. J. Agron., 18, 289–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00109-0, 2003.
Teferi, E., O'Donnell, G., Kassawmar, T., Mersha, B. D., and Ayele, G. T.: Enhanced Soil Moisture Retrieval through Integrating Satellite Data with Pedotransfer Functions in a Complex Landscape of Ethiopia, Water-Sui, 15, 3396, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15193396, 2023.
Teng, B. and Parinussa, R.: README Document for NASA GLDAS Version 2 Data Products, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), NASA, 32, https://hydro1.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/WAOB/LPRM_AMSRE_D_SOILM3.002/doc/README_LPRM.pdf (last access: 22 August 2024), 2021.
Tenreiro, T. R., García-Vila, M., Gómez, J. A., Jimenez-Berni, J. A., and Fereres, E.: Water modelling approaches and opportunities to simulate spatial water variations at crop field level, Agr. Water Manage., 240, 106254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106254, 2020.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012.
Tittonell, P. and Giller, K. E.: When yield gaps are poverty traps: The paradigm of ecological intensification in African smallholder agriculture, Field Crop. Res., 143, 76–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.10.007, 2013.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): National Adaptation Plans 2021. Progress in the formulation and implementation of NAPs, https://unfccc.int/documents/548662 (last access: 14 December 2023), 2021.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA): Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds, 164 pp., https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1421/ML14219A437.pdf (last access: 16 September 2023), 1986.
van Diepen, C. A., Wolf, J., van Keulen, H., and Rappoldt, C.: WOFOST: a simulation model of crop production, Soil Use Manage., 5, 16–24, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.1989.tb00755.x, 1989.
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Jongeneel, R., van Ittersum, M., Reidsma, P., and Ruben, R.: Disentangling agronomic and economic yield gaps: An integrated framework and application, Agr. Syst., 154, 90–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.004, 2017.
van Ittersum, M. K., Cassman, K. G., Grassini, P., Wolf, J., Tittonell, P., and Hochman, Z.: Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance-A review, Field Crop. Res., 143, 4–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.09.009, 2013.
Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Anghileri, D., Molnar, D., Alamirew, T., Six, J., and Molnar, P.: Rainfall seasonality and timing: implications for cereal crop production in Ethiopia, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 310, 108633, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2021.108633, 2021.
Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Molnar, P., and Burlando, P.: Bias-corrected and downscaled ERA5-Land 2 m air temperature dataset for Ethiopia for the period 1981–2010, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000546574, 2022.
Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Burlando, P., and Molnar, P.: Gridded daily 2 m air temperature dataset for Ethiopia derived by debiasing and downscaling ERA5-Land for the period 1981–2010, Data Br., 46, 108844, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2022.108844, 2023.
Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Six, J., and Molnar, P.: Current and future cropland suitability for cereal production across the rainfed agricultural landscapes of Ethiopia, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 358, 110262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110262, 2024.
Warren, R. F., Wilby, R. L., Brown, K., Watkiss, P., Betts, R. A., Murphy, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 376, 20170295, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0295, 2018.
Williams, J.: The erosion-productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model: a case history, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 329, 421–428, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1990.0184, 1990.
Yang, M., Wang, G., Sun, Y., You, L., and Anyah, R.: Water stress dominates the projected maize yield changes in Ethiopia, Global Planet. Change, 228, 104216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104216, 2023.
Zhang, Q., Yuan, Q., Jin, T., Song, M., and Sun, F.: SGD-SM 2.0: an improved seamless global daily soil moisture long-term dataset from 2002 to 2022, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4473–4488, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4473-2022, 2022.
Zhang, Y., Kong, D., Gan, R., Chiew, F. H. S., McVicar, T. R., Zhang, Q., and Yang, Y.: Coupled estimation of 500 m and 8 d resolution global evapotranspiration and gross primary production in 2002–2017, Remote Sens. Environ., 222, 165–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.031, 2019.
Short summary
In this study, we implement a climate, water, and crop interaction model to evaluate current conditions and project future changes in rainwater availability and its yield potential, with the goal of informing adaptation policies and strategies in Ethiopia. Although climate change is likely to increase rainfall in Ethiopia, our findings suggest that water-scarce croplands in Ethiopia are expected to face reduced crop yields during the main growing season due to increases in temperature.
In this study, we implement a climate, water, and crop interaction model to evaluate current...
