Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
Review article
11 Oct 2022
Review article |  | 11 Oct 2022

Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards

Günter Blöschl

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Cited articles

Alaoui, A., Rogger, M., Peth, S., and Blöschl, G.: Does soil compaction increase floods?, A review, J. Hydrol., 557, 631–642,, 2018. 
Archer, C. L. and Caldeira, K.: Historical trends in the jet streams, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08803,, 2008. 
Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: A dynamic framework for flood risk, Water Secur., 1, 3–11,, 2017. 
Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., and Blöschl, G.: The value of empirical data for estimating the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model, Water Resour. Res., 55, 1312–1336,, 2019. 
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822,, 2020. 
Short summary
There is serious concern that river floods are increasing. Starting from explanations discussed in public, the article addresses three hypotheses: land-use change, hydraulic structures, and climate change increase floods. This review finds that all three changes have the potential to not only increase floods, but also to reduce them. It is crucial to consider all three factors of change in flood risk management and communicate them to the general public in a nuanced way.