Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards
Günter Blöschl
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management,
Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/223, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Invited contribution by Günter Blöschl, recipient of the EGU Alfred Wegener Medal 2022.
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Cited
74 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Identifying changes in flood characteristics and their causes from an event-based perspective in the Central Taihu Basin S. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167131
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- Transboundary deforestation and flood risk: Assessing the need for collaborative policy between India and Nepal’s Siwalik regions I. Gujree et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2026.101162
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- Using artificial neural networks for predicting flood events in Artvin, Türkiye O. Aydın & N. Raja https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1530593
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74 citations as recorded by crossref.
- 420 ans d’inondations en milieu montagnard : l’exemple de la commune de Vallouise-Pelvoux (Écrins, France) L. Thanneur et al. https://doi.org/10.4000/15f3f
- Potenzial von Teichen als Retentionsflächen im Hochwassermanagement E. Peham et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-026-01231-6
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- Design and Performance Verification of Deep Learning-Based River Flood Prediction System Design and Digital Twin-Based Its Application H. Eom et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111696
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- Bedrock geology controls on new water fractions and catchment functioning in contrasted nested catchments G. Türk et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-343-2026
- A tracer‐aided 2D numerical framework to define fluvial and pluvial hazard mapping P. Perrini et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13039
- Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA) L. Terlinden-Ruhl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025
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- Deadlier natural disasters—a warning from Brazil’s 2024 floods R. Trancoso et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb7f1
- Assessing farmers’ vulnerability to floods and landslides in Kerala using a multidimensional Societal Vulnerability Index (SVIFL) D. Balakrishnan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-025-00444-y
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- High and dry: A ∼300-year record of hydrologic extremes from the French Broad River in the southeastern U.S. M. Davis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102673
- Land cover change and its effects on catchment hydrology: A quantitative analysis using SWAT in Horní Úpa N. Zelíková et al. https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2025.18
- Toward Brague river flood modelling 1: validity of a simplified 1D-2D hydraulic model to flash flood understanding E. Ah-Woane et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/28375807.2025.2508436
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- Evolution of flood generating processes under climate change in France Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025
- Quantifying representative runoff coefficients for small basins: a practical recipe for data-limited conditions G. Evangelista et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2665734
- A hydrologic similarity-based parameters dynamic matching framework: Application to enhance the real-time flood forecasting H. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167767
- Advancing real-time error correction of flood forecasting based on the hydrologic similarity theory and machine learning techniques P. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.118533
- Flood vulnerability in township informal settlements S. Gcabashe & S. Pillay https://doi.org/10.4102/JAMBA.v18i1.1833
- Integrating Earth Observations and Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Flood Risk Assessment K. Jodhani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-025-00378-9
- Artificial neural networks for flood susceptibility analysis in Gangarampur sub-division of Dakshin Dinajpur, West Bengal, India A. Paul https://doi.org/10.1108/FEBE-09-2024-0061
- Projected increase in widespread riverine floods in India under a warming climate J. Nanditha & V. Mishra https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130734
- How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons D. Sheil https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359
- The impacts of rainfall and soil moisture to flood hazards in a humid mountainous catchment: a modeling investigation T. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1285766
- Age-Based Community Resilience Assessment Using Flood Resilience Index Approach: Inference from the Gyor City, Hungary I. Ullah et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies5020016
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- Rain-on-wet-soil compound floods in lowlands: the combined effect of large rain events and shallow groundwater on discharge peaks in a changing climate C. Brauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-249-2026
- Mechanisms and scenarios of the unprecedent flooding event in South Brazil 2024 L. Laipelt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-573-2026
- Integrated hydro-morphological assessment of the flood events and in-channel vegetation impacts on river channel morphology (Polish Western Carpathians) A. Bucała-Hrabia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133847
- Global river water quality under climate change and hydroclimatic extremes M. van Vliet et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00472-3
- Probability Characteristics of High and Low Flows in Slovakia: A Comprehensive Hydrological Assessment P. Pekárová et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080199
- Palynological approaches to forest restoration in Southeast Asia: Challenges and opportunities for Thailand—A systematic review T. Sattraburut et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100714
- From a Topographic Gradient Perspective: Ecosystem Service Effects of Agricultural Land Transformation in Karst Mountainous Areas—A Case Study of Puding County, Guizhou Province X. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040582
- Mega Forest Fires Intensify Flood Magnitudes in Southeast Australia Z. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103812
- Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale G. Blöschl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024
- Using artificial neural networks for predicting flood events in Artvin, Türkiye O. Aydın & N. Raja https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1530593
- A Simple Model of Flood Peak Attenuation R. Paiva & S. Lima https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034692
- On the Performance of Sentinel-3 Altimetry over High Mountain and Cascade Reservoirs Basins: Case of the Lancang and Nu River Basins Y. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15071769
- Drivers, changes, and impacts of hydrological extremes in India: A review V. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1742
- Hydrological analysis of the Oder droughts for the period 1950‒2022 in the context of the 2022 river disaster M. Ali & M. Grygoruk https://doi.org/10.22630/srees.10421
- Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model D. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025
- The influence of topography on floods in southern Brazil V. Kuchinski & R. Paiva https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.302520250009
- Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data H. Do et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16050674
- Quantifying the relative contributions of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture to flood generation: Analysis of 963 Iranian catchments A. Jahanshahi & M. Booij https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105328
- Global acceleration of compound flood risks through fluvial-tidal interactions in a warming climate W. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00179-7
- Causes, seasonality and climate variability of floods in southern Brazil V. Kuchinski & R. Cauduro Dias de Paiva https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2651371
- Assessing multi-source random forest classification and robustness of predictor variables in flooded areas mapping C. Albertini et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2024.101239
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Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Jun 2026
Short summary
There is serious concern that river floods are increasing. Starting from explanations discussed in public, the article addresses three hypotheses: land-use change, hydraulic structures, and climate change increase floods. This review finds that all three changes have the potential to not only increase floods, but also to reduce them. It is crucial to consider all three factors of change in flood risk management and communicate them to the general public in a nuanced way.
There is serious concern that river floods are increasing. Starting from explanations discussed...