Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
25 Feb 2021
Research article | 25 Feb 2021
Groundwater and baseflow drought responses to synthetic recharge stress tests
Jost Hellwig et al.
Jost Hellwig and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6209–6224,Short summary
Due to the lack of long-term observations, insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured. In this paper we assess past and potential future changes in groundwater drought in headwater catchments using a baseflow approach. There are a few past trends which are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Catchments with short response times are found to have a higher sensitivity to projected seasonal precipitation shifts, urging for a local management based on response times.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
This study maps agriculture’s vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowlegde supported with quantitative data: experts of the study regions, far apart, identified few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability 'scenarios'. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practictioners.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217,Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116,Short summary
We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Stoelzle and Lina Stein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4549–4565,Short summary
We found with a scientific paper survey (~ 1000 papers) that 45 % of the papers used rainbow color maps or red–green visualizations. Those rainbow visualizations, although attracting the media's attention, will not be accessible for up to 10 % of people due to color vision deficiency. The rainbow color map distorts and misleads scientific communication. The study gives guidance on how to avoid, improve and trust color and how the flaws of the rainbow color map should be communicated in science.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501,Short summary
The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Marit Van Tiel, Anne F. Van Loon, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3245–3265,Short summary
Glaciers can buffer streamflow during dry and warm periods, but under which circumstances can melt compensate precipitation deficits? Streamflow responses to warm and dry events were analyzed using long-term observations of 50 glacierized catchments in Norway, Canada, and the European Alps. Region, timing of the event, relative glacier cover, and antecedent event conditions all affect the level of compensation during these events. This implies that glaciers do not compensate straightforwardly.
Maria Staudinger, Stefan Seeger, Barbara Herbstritt, Michael Stoelzle, Jan Seibert, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3057–3066,Short summary
The data set CH-IRP provides isotope composition in precipitation and streamflow from 23 Swiss catchments, being unique regarding its long-term multi-catchment coverage along an alpine–pre-alpine gradient. CH-IRP contains fortnightly time series of stable water isotopes from streamflow grab samples complemented by time series in precipitation. Sampling conditions, catchment and climate information, lab standards and errors are provided together with areal precipitation and catchment boundaries.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Mathilde Erfurt, Georgios Skiadaresis, Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Jürgen Bauhus, Rüdiger Glaser, Julia Schwarz, Willy Tegel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2979–2995,Short summary
Droughts are multifaceted hazards with widespread negative consequences for the environment and society. This study explores different perspectives on drought and determines the added value of multidisciplinary datasets for a comprehensive understanding of past drought events in southwestern Germany. A long-term evaluation of drought frequency since 1801 revealed that events occurred in all decades, but a particular clustering was found in the mid-19th century and the most recent decade.
Michael Stoelzle, Maria Staudinger, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
Proc. IAHS, 383, 43–50,Short summary
The role of recharge and catchment storage is crucial to understand streamflow drought sensitivity. Here we introduce a model experiment with recharge stress tests as complement to climate scenarios to quantify the streamflow drought sensitivities of catchments in Switzerland. We identified a pre-drought period of 12 months as maximum storage-memory for the study catchments. From stress testing, we found up to 200 days longer summer streamflow droughts and minimum flow reductions of 50 %–80 %.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295,Short summary
Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Michael Stoelzle, Tobias Schuetz, Markus Weiler, Kerstin Stahl, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 849–867,Short summary
During dry weather, different delayed sources of runoff (e.g. from groundwater, wetlands or snowmelt) modulate the magnitude and variability of streamflow. Hydrograph separation methods often do not distinguish these delayed contributions and mostly pool them into only two components (i.e. quickflow and baseflow). We propose a method that uncovers multiple components and demonstrates how they better reflect streamflow generation processes of different flow regimes.
Judith Meyer, Irene Kohn, Kerstin Stahl, Kirsti Hakala, Jan Seibert, and Alex J. Cannon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1339–1354,Short summary
Several multivariate bias correction methods have been developed recently, but only a few studies have tested the effect of multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections. This study shows that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relations between air temperature and precipitation can have a notable effect on the projected snowfall fraction. The effect translated to considerable consequences for the glacio-hydrological responses and streamflow components of the catchments.
Jost Hellwig and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6209–6224,Short summary
Due to the lack of long-term observations, insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured. In this paper we assess past and potential future changes in groundwater drought in headwater catchments using a baseflow approach. There are a few past trends which are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Catchments with short response times are found to have a higher sensitivity to projected seasonal precipitation shifts, urging for a local management based on response times.
Jan Seibert, Marc J. P. Vis, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224,Short summary
In many glacio-hydrological models glacier areas are assumed to be constant over time, which is a crucial limitation. Here we describe a novel approach to translate mass balances as simulated by the (glacio)hydrological model into glacier area changes. We combined the Δh approach of Huss et al. (2010) with the bucket-type model HBV and introduced a lookup table approach, which also allows periods with advancing glaciers to be represented, which is not possible with the original Huss method.
Erik Tijdeman, Jamie Hannaford, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1051–1064,Short summary
In this study, a screening approach was applied on a set of streamflow records for which various human influences are indicated to identify streamflow records that have drought characteristics that deviate from those expected under pristine conditions. Prolonged streamflow drought duration, a weaker correlation between streamflow and precipitation, and changes in streamflow drought occurrence over time were related to human influences such as groundwater abstractions or reservoir operations.
Marit Van Tiel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Niko Wanders, Marc J. P. Vis, Kerstin Stahl, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 463–485,Short summary
Glaciers are important hydrological reservoirs. Short-term variability in glacier melt and also glacier retreat can cause droughts in streamflow. In this study, we analyse the effect of glacier changes and different drought threshold approaches on future projections of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. We show that these different methodological options result in different drought projections and that these options can be used to study different aspects of streamflow droughts.
Sophie Bachmair, Cecilia Svensson, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Jamie Hannaford, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1947–1960,Short summary
This study tests the potential for developing empirical
drought impact functionsbased on hydro-meteorological drought indicators as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. We showcase three data-driven modeling approaches and assess the effect of impact report quantification method.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024,Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Erik Tijdeman, Sophie Bachmair, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4043–4059,
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650,Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800,
S. Bachmair, C. Svensson, J. Hannaford, L. J. Barker, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609,Short summary
To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given region and/or sector. We therefore exploited text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to evaluate drought indicators, empirically determine indicator thresholds, and model drought impacts. A quantitative analysis using Germany and the UK as a testbed proved to be a useful tool for objectively appraising drought indicators.
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819,Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
A. K. Fleig, L. M. Tallaksen, P. James, H. Hisdal, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107,
S. Bachmair, I. Kohn, and K. Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397,Short summary
There is little knowledge on the meaning of different hydro-meteorologic drought indicators for drought impact occurrence on the ground. This study investigates the link between commonly used drought indicators and text-based information on drought impacts through data visualization, extraction of indicator values concurrent with impact onset, and correlation analysis for the case study area Germany. The results demonstrate the feasibility of evaluating drought indicators with impacts.
D. Freudiger, I. Kohn, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709,
J. Hannaford, G. Buys, K. Stahl, and L. M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733,
M. Stoelzle, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 817–828,
Related subject area
Subject: Groundwater hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approachesExploring river–aquifer interactions and hydrological system response using baseflow separation, impulse response modeling, and time series analysis in three temperate lowland catchmentsExperimental study of non-Darcy flow characteristics in permeable stonesKarst spring discharge modeling based on deep learning using spatially distributed input dataHESS Opinions: Chemical transport modeling in subsurface hydrological systems – space, time, and the “holy grail” of “upscaling”Spatiotemporal variations in water sources and mixing spots in a riparian zoneDelineation of discrete conduit networks in karst aquifers via combined analysis of tracer tests and geophysical dataReactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sitesImproved understanding of regional groundwater drought development through time series modelling: the 2018–2019 drought in the NetherlandsSimulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: contributions of a water budget approach in cold and humid climatesFeedback mechanisms between precipitation and dissolution reactions across randomly heterogeneous conductivity fieldsTaking theory to the field: streamflow generation mechanisms in an intermittent Mediterranean catchmentCoupling saturated and unsaturated flow: comparing the iterative and the non-iterative approachTime lags of nitrate, chloride, and tritium in streams assessed by dynamic groundwater flow tracking in a lowland landscapeUsing Long Short-Term Memory networks to connect water table depth anomalies to precipitation anomalies over EuropeEstimation of groundwater recharge from groundwater levels using nonlinear transfer function noise models and comparison to lysimeter dataEarly hypogenic carbonic acid speleogenesis in unconfined limestone aquifers by upwelling deep-seated waters with high CO2 concentration: a modelling approachKarst spring recession curve analysis: efficient, accurate methods for both fast and slow flow componentsImpacts of climate change on groundwater flooding and ecohydrology in lowland karstHow daily groundwater table drawdown affects the diel rhythm of hyporheic exchangeGroundwater level forecasting with artificial neural networks: a comparison of long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and non-linear autoregressive networks with exogenous input (NARX)Determination of vadose zone and saturated zone nitrate lag times using long-term groundwater monitoring data and statistical machine learningModelling the hydrological interactions between a fissured granite aquifer and a valley mire in the Massif Central, FranceA new criterion for determining the representative elementary volume of translucent porous media and inner contaminantPhysics-inspired integrated space–time artificial neural networks for regional groundwater flow modelingHydraulic and geochemical impact of occasional saltwater intrusions through a submarine spring in a karst and thermal aquifer (Balaruc peninsula near Montpellier, France)Calibration of a lumped karst system model and application to the Qachqouch karst spring (Lebanon) under climate change conditionsSensitivity of hydrologic and geologic parameters on recharge processes in a highly heterogeneous, semi-confined aquifer systemBasin-scale multi-objective simulation-optimization modeling for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in northwest ChinaAssessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basinGroundwater mean residence times of a subtropical barrier sand islandOn the conceptual complexity of non-point source management: impact of spatial variabilityThe millennium-old hydrogeology textbook The Extraction of Hidden Waters by the Persian mathematician and engineer Abubakr Mohammad Karaji (953 CE–1029 CE)Modeling groundwater responses to climate change in the Prairie Pothole RegionA multi-environmental tracer study to determine groundwater residence times and recharge in a structurally complex multi-aquifer systemA three-dimensional palaeohydrogeological reconstruction of the groundwater salinity distribution in the Nile Delta AquiferModelling of the shallow water table at high spatial resolution using random forestsAn extended trajectory-mechanics approach for calculating the path of a pressure transient: travel-time tomographyGlobal sensitivity analysis and adaptive stochastic sampling of a subsurface-flow model using active subspacesA comprehensive quasi-3-D model for regional-scale unsaturated–saturated water flowDecomposition technique for contributions to groundwater heads from inside and outside of an arbitrary boundary: application to Guantao County, North China PlainHigh-resolution paleovalley classification from airborne electromagnetic imaging and deep neural network training using digital elevation model dataA partially coupled hydro-mechanical analysis of the Bengal Aquifer System under hydrological loadingReactive transport with wellbore storages in a single-well push–pull testDynamics of wormhole formation in fractured limestonesA general analytical model for head response to oscillatory pumping in unconfined aquifers: effects of delayed gravity drainage and initial conditionFaulting patterns in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge potentially influence groundwater flow pathsStochastic modeling of flow and conservative transport in three-dimensional discrete fracture networksLocality-based 3-D multiple-point statistics reconstruction using 2-D geological cross sectionsApplication of an improved global-scale groundwater model for water table estimation across New ZealandManaged aquifer recharge with reverse-osmosis desalinated seawater: modeling the spreading in groundwater using stable water isotopes
Min Lu, Bart Rogiers, Koen Beerten, Matej Gedeon, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3629–3649,Short summary
Lowland rivers and shallow aquifers are closely coupled. We study their interactions here using a combination of impulse response modeling and hydrological data analysis. The results show that the lowland catchments are groundwater dominated and that the hydrological system from precipitation impulse to groundwater inflow response is a very fast response regime. This study also provides an alternative method to estimate groundwater inflow to rivers from the perspective of groundwater level.
Zhongxia Li, Junwei Wan, Tao Xiong, Hongbin Zhan, Linqing He, and Kun Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3359–3375,Short summary
Four permeable rocks with different pore sizes were considered to provide experimental evidence of Forchheimer flow and the transition between different flow regimes. The mercury injection technique was used to measure the pore size distribution, which is an essential factor for determining the flow regime, for four permeable stones. Finally, the influences of porosity and particle size on the Forchheimer coefficients were discussed.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Guillaume Cinkus, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2405–2430,Short summary
Modeling complex karst water resources is difficult enough, but often there are no or too few climate stations available within or close to the catchment to deliver input data for modeling purposes. We apply image recognition algorithms to time-distributed, spatially gridded meteorological data to simulate karst spring discharge. Our models can also learn the approximate catchment location of a spring independently.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2161–2180,Short summary
Extensive efforts have focused on quantifying conservative chemical transport in geological formations. We assert that an explicit accounting of temporal information, under uncertainty, in addition to spatial information, is fundamental to an effective modeling formulation. We further assert that efforts to apply chemical transport equations at large length scales, based on measurements and model parameter values relevant to significantly smaller length scales, are an unattainable
Guilherme E. H. Nogueira, Christian Schmidt, Daniel Partington, Philip Brunner, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1883–1905,Short summary
In near-stream aquifers, mixing between stream water and ambient groundwater can lead to dilution and the removal of substances that can be harmful to the water ecosystem at high concentrations. We used a numerical model to track the spatiotemporal evolution of different water sources and their mixing around a stream, which are rather difficult in the field. Results show that mixing mainly develops as narrow spots, varying In time and space, and is affected by magnitudes of discharge events.
Jacques Bodin, Gilles Porel, Benoît Nauleau, and Denis Paquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1713–1726,Short summary
Assessment of the karst network geometry is an important challenge in the accurate modeling of karst aquifers. In this study, we propose an approach for the identification of effective three-dimensional discrete karst conduit networks conditioned on tracer tests and geophysical data. The applicability of the proposed approach is illustrated through a case study at the Hydrogeological Experimental Site in Poitiers, France.
Zexuan Xu, Rebecca Serata, Haruko Wainwright, Miles Denham, Sergi Molins, Hansell Gonzalez-Raymat, Konstantin Lipnikov, J. David Moulton, and Carol Eddy-Dilek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 755–773,Short summary
Climate change could change the groundwater system and threaten water supply. To quantitatively evaluate its impact on water quality, numerical simulations with chemical and reaction processes are required. With the climate projection dataset, we used the newly developed hydrological and chemical model to investigate the movement of contaminants and assist the management of contamination sites.
Esther Brakkee, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, and Ruud P. Bartholomeus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 551–569,Short summary
Periods of drought often lead to groundwater shortages in large regions, which cause damage to nature and the economy. To take measures, we need a good understanding of where and when groundwater shortage occurs. In this study, we have tested a method that can combine large amounts of groundwater measurements in an automated way and provide detailed maps of how groundwater shortages develop during a drought period. This information can help water managers to limit future groundwater shortages.
Emmanuel Dubois, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagné, and Guillaume Meyzonnat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6567–6589,Short summary
This work demonstrates the relevance of using a water budget model to understand long-term transient and regional-scale groundwater recharge (GWR) in cold and humid climates where groundwater observations are scarce. Monthly GWR is simulated for 57 years on 500 m x 500 m cells in Canada (36 000 km2 area) with limited uncertainty due to a robust automatic calibration method. The increases in precipitation and temperature since the 1960s have not yet produced significant changes in annual GWR.
Yaniv Edery, Martin Stolar, Giovanni Porta, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5905–5915,Short summary
The interplay between dissolution, precipitation and transport is widely encountered in porous media, from CO2 storage to cave formation in carbonate rocks. We show that dissolution occurs along preferential flow paths with high hydraulic conductivity, while precipitation occurs at locations close to yet separated from these flow paths, thus further funneling the flow and changing the probability density function of the transport, as measured on the altered conductivity field at various times.
Karina Y. Gutierrez-Jurado, Daniel Partington, and Margaret Shanafield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4299–4317,Short summary
Understanding the hydrologic cycle in semi-arid landscapes includes knowing the physical processes that govern where and why rivers flow and dry within a given catchment. To gain this understanding, we put together a conceptual model of what processes we think are important and then tested that model with numerical analysis. The results broadly confirmed our hypothesis that there are three distinct regions in our study catchment that contribute to streamflow generation in quite different ways.
Natascha Brandhorst, Daniel Erdal, and Insa Neuweiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4041–4059,Short summary
We compare two approaches for coupling a 2D groundwater model with multiple 1D models for the unsaturated zone. One is non-iterative and very fast. The other one is iterative and involves a new way of treating the specific yield, which is crucial for obtaining a consistent solution in both model compartments. Tested on different scenarios, this new method turns out to be slower than the non-iterative approach but more accurate and still very efficient compared to fully integrated 3D model runs.
Vince P. Kaandorp, Hans Peter Broers, Ype van der Velde, Joachim Rozemeijer, and Perry G. B. de Louw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3691–3711,Short summary
We reconstructed historical and present-day tritium, chloride, and nitrate concentrations in stream water of a catchment using land-use-based input curves and calculated travel times of groundwater. Parameters such as the unsaturated zone thickness, mean travel time, and input patterns determine time lags between inputs and in-stream concentrations. The timescale of the breakthrough of pollutants in streams is dependent on the location of pollution in a catchment.
Yueling Ma, Carsten Montzka, Bagher Bayat, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3555–3575,Short summary
This study utilized spatiotemporally continuous precipitation anomaly (pra) and water table depth anomaly (wtda) data from integrated hydrologic simulation results over Europe in combination with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the time-varying and time-lagged relationship between pra and wtda in order to obtain reliable models to estimate wtda at the individual pixel level.
Raoul A. Collenteur, Mark Bakker, Gernot Klammler, and Steffen Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2931–2949,Short summary
This study explores the use of nonlinear transfer function noise (TFN) models to simulate groundwater levels and estimate groundwater recharge from observed groundwater levels. A nonlinear recharge model is implemented in a TFN model to compute the recharge. The estimated recharge rates are shown to be in good agreement with the recharge observed with a lysimeter present at the case study site in Austria. The method can be used to obtain groundwater recharge rates at sub-yearly timescales.
Franci Gabrovšek and Wolfgang Dreybrodt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2895–2913,Short summary
The evolution of karst aquifers is often governed by solutions gaining their aggressiveness in depth. Although the principles of
hypogene speleogenesisare known, modelling studies based on reactive flow in fracture networks are missing. We present a model where dissolution at depth is triggered by the mixing of waters of different origin and chemistry. We show how the initial position of the mixing zone and flow instabilities therein determine the position and shape of the final conduits.
Tunde Olarinoye, Tom Gleeson, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for HESSShort summary
Analysis of karst spring recession is essential for management of groundwater. In karst, recession is dominated by slow and fast components; separating these components is by manual and subjective approaches. In our study, we tested the applicability of automated streamflow recession extraction procedures for karst spring. Results showed that by simple modification, streamflow extraction methods can identify slow and fast components and derived recession parameters are within reasonable ranges.
Patrick Morrissey, Paul Nolan, Ted McCormack, Paul Johnston, Owen Naughton, Saheba Bhatnagar, and Laurence Gill
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1923–1941,Short summary
Lowland karst aquifers provide important wetland habitat resulting from seasonal flooding on the land surface. This flooding is controlled by surcharging of the karst system, which is very sensitive to changes in rainfall. This study investigates the predicted impacts of climate change on a lowland karst catchment in Ireland and highlights the relative vulnerability to future changing climate conditions of karst systems and any associated wetland habitats.
Liwen Wu, Jesus D. Gomez-Velez, Stefan Krause, Anders Wörman, Tanu Singh, Gunnar Nützmann, and Jörg Lewandowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1905–1921,Short summary
With a physically based model that couples flow and heat transport in hyporheic zones, the present study provides the first insights into the dynamics of hyporheic responses to the impacts of daily groundwater withdrawal and river temperature fluctuations, allowing for a better understanding of transient hyporheic exchange processes and hence an improved pumping operational scheme.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, and Stefan Broda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1671–1687,
Martin J. Wells, Troy E. Gilmore, Natalie Nelson, Aaron Mittelstet, and John K. Böhlke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 811–829,Short summary
Groundwater in many agricultural areas contains high levels of nitrate, which is a concern for drinking water supplies. The rate at which nitrate moves through the subsurface is a critical piece of information for predicting how quickly groundwater nitrate levels may improve after agricultural producers change their approach to managing crop water and fertilizers. In this study, we explored a new statistical modeling approach to determine rates at which nitrate moves into and through an aquifer.
Arnaud Duranel, Julian R. Thompson, Helene Burningham, Philippe Durepaire, Stéphane Garambois, Robert Wyns, and Hervé Cubizolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 291–319,Short summary
Peat-forming wetlands (mires) provide multiple ecosystem services, which depend on peat remaining waterlogged. Using hydrological modelling, we show that, contrary to a common assumption, groundwater inflow can be a quantitatively important and functionally critical element of the water balance of mires in hard-rock upland and mountain areas. This influence is such that patterns of groundwater upwelling and seepage explain the spatial distribution of mires in the landscape.
Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, Jichun Wu, and Bill X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5903–5917,Short summary
A new criterion (χi) is proposed to estimate representative elementary volume (REV) of a translucent material based on light transmission techniques. This study is essential for quantitative investigation of the scale effect of porous media and contaminant transformation. The fluid and contaminant migration and transform in porous media can be simulated accurately according to the REV estimation results using the light transmission technique and the appropriate criterion χi.
Ali Ghaseminejad and Venkatesh Uddameri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5759–5779,Short summary
While artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used to forecast groundwater levels at single wells, they have not been constructed to forecast hydraulic heads in both space and time. This seminal study presents a modeling framework, guided by the governing physical laws, for building an integrated space–time ANN (IST–ANN) model for regional groundwater level predictions. IST–ANN shows promise for parsimoniously modeling regional-scale groundwater levels using available surrogate information.
Marie-Amélie Pétré, Bernard Ladouche, Jean-Luc Seidel, Romain Hemelsdaël, Véronique de Montety, Christelle Batiot-Guilhe, and Claudine Lamotte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5655–5672,Short summary
We studied the impact of occasional saltwater intrusions into the karst aquifer of the Balaruc peninsula (France). Using hydrogeological and geochemical data, this study shows that the hydraulic impact on the aquifer is rapid and of regional extent, whereas the geochemical impact is observed at the local scale and is temporally persistent. This research supports groundwater management by providing a better understanding of the hydrodynamics and recovery of the aquifer after saltwater intrusions.
Emmanuel Dubois, Joanna Doummar, Séverin Pistre, and Marie Larocque
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4275–4290,Short summary
The simulation of flow in a karst aquifer in a Mediterranean region using a semi-distributed linear reservoir model (geometry and parameterization) is calibrated and validated based on the analysis of high-resolution time series. The model is used to predict the effect of climatic variation. Although the spring is highly sensitive to rainfall variations, it is also resilient to warming temperature. Finally, this integrated conceptual method is reproducible for karst in semiarid regions.
Stephen R. Maples, Laura Foglia, Graham E. Fogg, and Reed M. Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2437–2456,Short summary
In this study, we use a combination of local- and global-sensitivity analyses to evaluate the relative importance of (1) the configuration of subsurface alluvial geology and (2) the hydraulic properties of geologic facies on recharge processes. Results show that there is a large variation of recharge rates possible in a typical alluvial aquifer system and that the configuration proportion of sand and gravel deposits in the subsurface have a large impact on recharge rates.
Jian Song, Yun Yang, Xiaomin Sun, Jin Lin, Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, and Jichun Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2323–2341,Short summary
We proposed a novel many-objective simulation-optimization framework for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in Yanqi Basin, northwest China. The management model involving socioeconomic and environmental objectives was constructed to explore optimal water-use schemes. Three runoff scenarios were then specified to quantify the effect of runoff reduction related to climate change on water management. Results provide Pareto-optimal solutions for basin-scale water management.
Miao Jing, Rohini Kumar, Falk Heße, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1511–1526,Short summary
This study investigates the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in a central German basin. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is also presented. This study indicates that the variability of responses increases with the amount of global warming, which might affect the cost of managing the groundwater system.
Harald Hofmann, Dean Newborn, Ian Cartwright, Dioni I. Cendón, and Matthias Raiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1293–1318,Short summary
Fresh groundwater (GW) on barrier islands is affected by GW use and precipitation variability. Mean residence times (MRTs) of GW on a sand barrier island were determined. They ranged from 37 years to more than 150 years for tritium and had a much larger range (modern to 5000 years) for carbon-14. Perched aquifer systems in the unsaturated zone and peat formations around wetlands are the most likely cause of longer MRTs, as they have a significant impact on regional recharge and flow diversion.
Christopher Vincent Henri, Thomas Harter, and Efstathios Diamantopoulos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1189–1209,Short summary
Non-point source contaminations of aquifers are complex to model, predict and manage. This study uses numerical and stochastic methods to address the importance of key sources of spatial variability. We show that heterogeneity in recharge and contaminant loading does not significantly impact management metrics and could be simplified. Also, homogenizing physical properties has more impact on predictions, but can provide useful information on concentration statistics in a regional analysis.
Behzad Ataie-Ashtiani and Craig T. Simmons
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 761–769,Short summary
We revisit and shed light on the textbook The Extraction of Hidden Waters by the Persian mathematician and engineer Abubakr Mohammad Karaji. Ground-breaking ideas and descriptions of hydrological and hydrogeological perceptions such as components of the hydrological cycle, groundwater quality and driving factors for groundwater flow were presented in the book. We speculate that Karaji's book is the first of its kind to provide a construction and maintenance manual for an engineering project.
Zhe Zhang, Yanping Li, Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Andrew Ireson, and Zhenhua Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 655–672,Short summary
The groundwater regime in cold regions is strongly impacted by the soil freeze–thaw processes and semiarid climatic conditions. In this paper, we incorporate groundwater dynamics in the Noah-MP land surface model to simulate the water exchange between the unsaturated soil zone and an unconfined aquifer in the Prairie Pothole Region. The water table dynamics are reasonably simulated. The water budget of groundwater aquifer under current and future climate are also investigated.
Cornelia Wilske, Axel Suckow, Ulf Mallast, Christiane Meier, Silke Merchel, Broder Merkel, Stefan Pavetich, Tino Rödiger, Georg Rugel, Agnes Sachse, Stephan M. Weise, and Christian Siebert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 249–267,Short summary
Despite feeding several million people, the flow system and inter-aquifer communication within one of the major aquifer systems in Israel and the West Bank is still poorly understood. Applying a combination of inorganic elements, anthropogenic organic trace substances and classical environmental age-dating tracers like 3H, CFCs, SF6 and 36Cl / Cl, groundwater flow patterns, mixing end-members, transport times and recharge estimates have been obtained despite very limited data.
Joeri van Engelen, Jarno Verkaik, Jude King, Eman R. Nofal, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5175–5198,Short summary
The Nile Delta is an important agricultural area with a fast-growing population, relying increasingly on groundwater. However, saline groundwater extends far land-inward, rendering groundwater close to the coastal zone useless for consumption or agriculture. It normally is assumed that this is caused by mixing due to velocity differences, but here we show that it might also be caused by the coastline being located more land-inward 8000 years ago.
Julian Koch, Helen Berger, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, and Torben Obel Sonnenborg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4603–4619,Short summary
This study explores novel modelling avenues using machine learning in combination with process-based models to predict the shallow water table at high spatial resolution. Due to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, the shallow groundwater is rising in many parts of the world. In order to adapt to risks induced by groundwater flooding, new modelling tools need to emerge. In this study, we found that machine learning is capable of reaching the required accuracy and resolution.
Donald W. Vasco, Joseph Doetsch, and Ralf Brauchler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4541–4560,Short summary
This paper presents the application of a new approach for calculating the path of a pressure transient in a heterogeneous porous medium containing a slightly compressible fluid. Unlike previous asymptotic approaches, the expressions for the path and travel time are valid in the presence of rapid variations in material properties. The technique is applied to both synthetic transient pressure variations from a test example and actual field data from a field experiment in Widen, Switzerland.
Daniel Erdal and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3787–3805,Short summary
Assessing how sensitive uncertain model parameters are to observed data can be done by analyzing an ensemble of model simulations in which the parameters are varied. In subsurface modeling, this involves running heavy models. To reduce time wasted simulating models which show poor behavior, we use a fast polynomial model based on a simple parameter decomposition to approximate the behavior prior to full-model simulation. This largely reduces the cost for the global sensitivity analysis.
Wei Mao, Yan Zhu, Heng Dai, Ming Ye, Jinzhong Yang, and Jingwei Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3481–3502,Short summary
A new quasi-3-D model was developed by coupling a soil water balance model with MODFLOW iteratively for regional-scale water flow modeling. The model was tested to be effective and efficient with well-maintained mass balance. A modeling framework was developed to organize the coupling scheme and to handle the pre- and post-processing information. The model is then used to evaluate groundwater recharge in a real-world application, which shows the model practicability in regional-scale problems.
Ning Li, Wolfgang Kinzelbach, Haitao Li, Wenpeng Li, and Fei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2823–2840,Short summary
Groundwater heads within an administrative unit are influenced not only by inside drivers, but also by outside drivers. To assess the efficiency of groundwater management of the administrative unit, we propose the decomposition of groundwater heads within the unit into inside and outside contributions by using three numerical groundwater models. The method is successfully demonstrated using Guantao County, China.
Zhenjiao Jiang, Dirk Mallants, Luk Peeters, Lei Gao, Camilla Soerensen, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2561–2580,Short summary
Paleovalleys often form productive aquifers in the semiarid and arid areas. A methodology based on deep learning is introduced to automatically generate high-resolution 3-D paleovalley maps from low-resolution electrical conductivity data derived from airborne geophysical surveys. It is validated by borehole logs and the surface valley indices that the proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for regional-scale paleovalley mapping and groundwater exploration.
Nicholas D. Woodman, William G. Burgess, Kazi Matin Ahmed, and Anwar Zahid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2461–2479,Short summary
We show that a conventional hydraulic understanding of groundwater level fluctuation is too simplistic for the extensive floodplains of Bangladesh and West Bengal. This is crucial because 150 million people of the region rely on groundwater for drinking and irrigation. We describe a more complex situation: the coupled hydro-mechanical action of surface water coming and going as the seasons change. Our model results will assist sustainable management of groundwater resources across the region.
Quanrong Wang and Hongbin Zhan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2207–2223,Short summary
New multi-species reactive models of the four-phase SWPP test were presented considering the wellbore storages for both groundwater flow and solute transport and a finite-aquifer hydraulic diffusivity, which were ignored in previous studies. The models of the wellbore storage for solute transport were proposed based on the mass balance, and the sensitivity analysis and uniqueness analysis were employed to investigate the assumptions used in previous studies on the parameter estimation.
Wolfgang Dreybrodt and Franci Gabrovšek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1995–2014,Short summary
Numerical models of wormhole formation in fractured porous media provide basic insights on the evolution of complex conduit systems in karst aquifers. In this work we use a time-propagating reactive flow model to explore the evolution of wormholes in a 2-D grid of fractures. We demonstrate physically meaningful mechanisms leading to the formation of individual wormholes and the competition between a set of evolving wormholes.
Ching-Sheng Huang, Ya-Hsin Tsai, Hund-Der Yeh, and Tao Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1323–1337,Short summary
The study develops a new model describing head fluctuation induced by oscillatory pumping test (OPT) in an unconfined aquifer with effects of delayed gravity drainage (DGD) and initial condition regarding the hydraulic head prior to OPT. The DGD reduces to instantaneous gravity drainage when a dimensionless parameter exceeds 500. A pseudo-steady-state model excluding initial condition causes a time-shift from the actual transient model in predicting simple harmonic motion of head fluctuation.
Nimrod Inbar, Eliahu Rosenthal, Fabien Magri, Marwan Alraggad, Peter Möller, Akiva Flexer, Joseph Guttman, and Christian Siebert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 763–771,Short summary
In areas of enigmatic hydrology, water scarcity, and transboundary water resources, management strategies should rely on comprehensive modeling which must be based on realistic geometry, including all relevant structural features. Based on available geophysical and geological data, a new faulting pattern in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge is suggested as a basis for hydrogeological modeling. Furthermore, unexpected pull-apart basin rim fault evolution is discussed in the context of tectonic collision.
I-Hsien Lee, Chuen-Fa Ni, Fang-Pang Lin, Chi-Ping Lin, and Chien-Chung Ke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 19–34,Short summary
Few studies focused on the direct solution of the ADE for 3-D DFNs. The study is the first to solve the ADE and focus on assessing the velocity uncertainty in 3-D DFNs. The velocity uncertainty shows a limited range of influence close to the mean diameter of a fracture. The information is useful for engineering designs at sites with fractured rocks. We quantified that the tracer test in wells might lead to the overestimation of mean concentration and induce high uncertainty in fractured media.
Qiyu Chen, Gregoire Mariethoz, Gang Liu, Alessandro Comunian, and Xiaogang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6547–6566,Short summary
One of the critical issues in MPS simulation is the difficulty in obtaining a credible 3-D training image. We propose an MPS-based 3-D reconstruction method on the basis of 2-D cross sections, making 3-D training images unnecessary. The main advantages of this approach are the high computational efficiency and a relaxation of the stationarity assumption. The results, in comparison with previous MPS methods, show better performance in portraying anisotropy characteristics and in CPU cost.
Rogier Westerhoff, Paul White, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6449–6472,Short summary
Our study improved a global-scale groundwater model to build the first nationwide estimate of the water table surface in New Zealand. By identifying the main alluvial aquifers with high spatial detail, we showed that this model can help better delineate aquifer boundaries. In catchment studies we demonstrated excellent correlation with ground observations and provided water table estimates where data were sparse and across regions, which could help solve trans-boundary issues between catchments.
Yonatan Ganot, Ran Holtzman, Noam Weisbrod, Anat Bernstein, Hagar Siebner, Yoram Katz, and Daniel Kurtzman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6323–6333,Short summary
In recent years, surpluses of desalinated seawater (DSW) are stored in the Israeli coastal aquifer. We monitor DSW spread in the aquifer using the difference between isotope composition of reverse-osmosis DSW and natural fresh water, which simplifies the system to two distinct end-members. A hydrogeological flow and transport model is used to demonstrate the robustness of this simplification, predict the future spread of DSW in the aquifer and mixing in wells, and estimate DSW recovery efficacy.
BGR and SGD: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe and Staatliche Geologische Dienste: Hydrogeologische Übersichtskarte von Deutschland, 1:200.000, Oberer Grundwasserleiter (HÜK200 OGWL), Version 3.0., Hannover, Germany, 2016.
Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., Bricker, S. H., and Morgan, R. B.: Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015.
Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., and McKenzie, A. A.: Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1393–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019, 2019.
BMU: Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Hydrologischer Atlas von Deutschland, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Bonn and Berlin, Germany, 2003.
Chen, Z., Hartmann, A., Wagener, T., and Goldscheider, N.: Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3807–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018, 2018.
Dams, J., Salvadore, E., Van Daele, T., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., and Batelaan, O.: Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1517–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1517-2012, 2012.
de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 823–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015, 2015.
EC: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, Belgium, 2007.
Eckhardt, K. and Ulbrich, U.: Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range, J. Hydrol., 284, 244–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.08.005, 2003.
Eltahir, E. A. B. and Yeh, P.: On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois, Water Resour. Res., 35, 1199–1217, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998wr900071, 1999.
Famiglietti, J. S.: The global groundwater crisis, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 945, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2425, 2014.
Fan, Y., Miguez-Macho, G., Weaver, C. P., Walko, R., and Robock, A.: Incorporating water table dynamics in climate odelling: 1. Water table observations and equilibrium water table simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D10125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd008111, 2007.
Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., and Beek, L. P. H.: A glimpse beneath earth's surface: Global Hydrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3891–3898, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856, 2014.
Gleeson, T., Befus, K. M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., and Cardenas, M. B.: The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater, Nat. Geosci., 9, 161, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2590, 2016.
Gleeson, T., Wagener, T., Döll, P., Zipper, S. C., West, C., Wada, Y., Taylor, R., Scanlon, B., Rosolem, R., Rahman, S., Oshinlaja, N., Maxwell, R., Lo, M.-H., Kim, H., Hill, M., Hartmann, A., Fogg, G., Famiglietti, J. S., Ducharne, A., de Graaf, I., Cuthbert, M., Condon, L., Bresciani, E., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: HESS Opinions: Improving the evaluation of groundwater representation in continental to global scale models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, in review, 2020.
Godsey, S. E. and Kirchner, J. W.: Dynamic, discontinuous stream networks: hydrologically driven variations in active drainage density, flowing channels and stream order, Hydrol. Process., 28, 5791–5803, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10310, 2014.
Haas, J. C. and Birk, S.: Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers in different settings using drought indices, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2421–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2421-2017, 2017.
Hall, J. W. and Leng, G.: Can we calculate drought risk and do we need to?, WIREs Water, 6, e1349, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1349, 2019.
Harbaugh, A. W., Banta, E. R., Hill, M. C., and McDonald, M. G.: MODFLOW-2000, The US Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model-User Guide to Modularization Concepts and the Ground-Water Flow Process, Open-file Report, US Geological Survey, Reston, Virgina, 121 pp., 2000.
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Rng. Agric., 1, 96–99, 1985.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Tank, A., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010201, 2008.
Hellwig, J.: Grundwasserdürren in Deutschland von 1970 bis 2018, Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft, 12, 567–572, https://doi.org/10.3243/kwe2019.10.001, 2019.
Hellwig, J. and Stahl, K.: An assessment of trends and potential future changes in groundwater-baseflow drought based on catchment response times, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6209–6224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018, 2018.
Hellwig, J., de Graaf, I. E. M., Weiler, M., and Stahl, K.: Large scale assessment of delayed groundwater responses to drought, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR025441, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025441, 2020.
Hellwig, J., Stoelzle, M., and Stahl, K.: Model outputs: Groundwater and baseflow stress tests in Germany, FreiDok, https://doi.org/10.6094/UNIFR/167379, 2021.
Herrmann, F., Kunkel, R., Ostermann, U. Vereecken, H., and Wendland, F.: Projected impact of climate change on irrigation needs and groundwater resources in the metropolitan area of Hamburg (Germany), Environ. Earth Sci., 75, 1104, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5904-y, 2016.
Heudorfer, B. and Stahl, K.: Comparison of different threshold level methods for drought propagation analysis in Germany, Hydrol. Res., 48, 1311–1326, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.258, 2017.
Hunkeler, D., Möck, C., Käser, D., and Brunner, P.: Klimaeinflüsse auf Grundwassermengen, Aqua Gas, 11, 43–49, 2014.
Jacob, D., Bülow, K., Kotova, L., Moseley, C., Petersen, J., and Rechid, D.: Regionale Klimaprojektionen für Europa und Deutschland: Ensemble Simulationen für die Klimafolgenforschung, MPI für Meteorologie, Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany, 48 pp., 2012.
Jing, M., Kumar, R., Heße, F., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1511–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, 2020.
Kløve, B., Ala-Aho, P., Bertrand, G., Gurdak, J. J., Kupfersberger, H., Kværner, J., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, J. Hydrol., 518, 250–266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.037, 2014.
Kopp, B., Baumeister, C., Gudera, T., Hergesell, M., Kampf, J., Morhard, A., and Neumann, J.: Entwicklung von Bodenwasserhaushalt und Grundwasserneubildung in Baden-Württemberg, Bayern, Rheinland-Pfalz und Hessen von 1951 bis 2015, Hydrol. Wasserbewirts., 62, 62–76, https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2018,2_1, 2018.
Kumar, R., Musuuza, J. L., Van Loon, A. F., Teuling, A. J., Barthel, R., Ten Broek, J., Mai, J., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Multiscale evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index as a groundwater drought indicator, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Döll, P.: Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change?, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 665–675, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.4.665, 2009.
Laaha, G., Gauster, T., Tallaksen, L. M., Vidal, J.-P., Stahl, K., Prudhomme, C., Heudorfer, B., Vlnas, R., Ionita, M., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Adler, M.-J., Caillouet, L., Delus, C., Fendekova, M., Gailliez, S., Hannaford, J., Kingston, D., Van Loon, A. F., Mediero, L., Osuch, M., Romanowicz, R., Sauquet, E., Stagge, J. H., and Wong, W. K.: The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017.
Longobardi, A. and Van Loon, A. F.: Assessing baseflow index vulnerability to variation in dry spell length for a range of catchment and climate properties, Hydrol. Process., 32, 2496–2509, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13147, 2018.
Maxwell, R. M., Condon, L. E., and Kollet, S. J.: A high-resolution simulation of groundwater and surface water over most of the continental US with the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow v3, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 923–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015, 2015.
Miguez-Macho, G., Li, H., and Fan, Y.: Simulated water table and soil moisture climatology over North America, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 663–672, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-5-663, 2008.
Moeck, C., Brunner, P., and Hunkeler, D.: The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies, Hydrogeol. J., 24, 1171–1184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1367-1, 2016.
Ng, G.-H. C., McLaughlin, D., Entekhabi, D., and Scanlon, B. R.: Probabilistic analysis of the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge, Water Resour. Res., 46, W07502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007904, 2010.
Paparrizos, S., Schindler, D., Potouridis, S., and Matzarakis, A.: Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany, J. Water Clim. Change, 9, 490–499, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.009, 2018.
Parry, S., Wilby, R., Prudhomme, C., Wood, P., and McKenzie, A.: Demonstrating the utility of a drought termination framework: prospects for groundwater level recovery in England and Wales in 2018 or beyond, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 064040, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac78c, 2018.
Peters, E., Torfs, P., van Lanen, H. A. J., and Bier, G.: Propagation of drought through groundwater – a new approach using linear reservoir theory, Hydrol. Process., 17, 3023–3040, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1274, 2003.
Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R. L., Crooks, S., Kay, A. L., and Reynard, N. S.: Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk, J. Hydrol., 390, 198–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.043, 2010.
Prudhomme, C., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Boorman, D., Knight, J., Bell, V., and Jenkins, A.: Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 62, 2753–2768, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1395032, 2017.
Reinecke, R., Foglia, L., Mehl, S., Trautmann, T., Cáceres, D., and Döll, P.: Challenges in developing a global gradient-based groundwater model (G3M v1.0) for the integration into a global hydrological model, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, 2019.
Staudinger, M., Weiler, M., and Seibert, J.: Quantifying sensitivity to droughts – an experimental modeling approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1371–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1371-2015, 2015.
Stoelzle, M., Stahl, K., Morhard, A., and Weiler, M.: Streamflow sensitivity to drought scenarios in catchments with different geology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6174–6183, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061344, 2014.
Stoelzle, M., Blauhut, V., Kohn, I., Krumm, J., Weiler, M., and Stahl, K.: Niedrigwasser in Süddeutschland. Analysen, Szenarien und Handlungsempfehlungen, KLIWA Heft 23, Arbeitskreis KLIWA, availabe at: https://www.kliwa.de/_download/KLIWAHeft23.pdf (last access: 24 February 2021), 2018 (in German).
Stoelzle, M., Schuetz, T., Weiler, M., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Beyond binary baseflow separation: a delayed-flow index for multiple streamflow contributions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 849–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-849-2020, 2020a.
Stoelzle, M., Staudinger, M., Stahl, K., and Weiler, M.: Stress testing as complement to climate scenarios: recharge scenarios to quantify streamflow drought sensitivity, P. IAHS, 383, 43–50, 2020b.
Stoll, S., Hendricks Franssen, H. J., Butts, M., and Kinzelbach, W.: Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 21–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-21-2011, 2011.
Tallaksen, L. M. and Stahl, K.: Spatial and temporal patterns of large‐scale droughts in Europe: Model dispersion and performance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 429–434, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058573, 2014.
Taylor, R. G., Scanlon, B., Döll, P., Rodell, M., van Beek, R., Wada, Y., Longuevergne, L., Leblanc, M., Famiglietti, J. S., Edmunds, M., Konikow, L., Green, T. R., Chen, J., Taniguchi, M., Bierkens, M. F. P., MacDonald, A., Fan, Y., Maxwell, R. M., Yechieli, Y., Gurdak, J. J., Allen, D. M., Shamsudduha, M., Hiscock, K., Yeh, P. J.-F., Holman, I., and Treidel, H.: Ground water and climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 322, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1744, 2013.
Van Loon, A. F.: Hydrological drought explained, WIRES Water, 2, 359–392, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085, 2015.
Van Loon, A. F. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: A process-based typology of hydrological drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1915–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012, 2012.
Wada, Y., Wisser, D., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, 2014.
Weider, K. and Boutt, D. F.: Heterogeneous water table response to climate revealed by 60 years of ground water data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045561, 2010.
Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. With three generic scenarios, we found different sensitivities across Germany driven by hydrogeology. While changes in drought hazard due to seasonal recharge shifts will be rather low, a lengthening of dry spells could cause stronger responses in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation, urging local water management to prepare for more severe droughts.
Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on systems' sensitivity to...