Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018
Research article
 | 
04 Jul 2018
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2018

Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency

Diana Lucatero, Henrik Madsen, Jens C. Refsgaard, Jacob Kidmose, and Karsten H. Jensen

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Cited articles

Bogner, K., Liechti, K., and Zappa, M.: Post-processing of stream flows in Switzerland with an emphasis on low flows and floods, Water (Switzerland), 8, 115, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040115, 2016. 
Bruno Soares, M. and Dessai, S.: Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe, Clim. Change, 137, 89–103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8, 2016. 
Córdoba-Machado, S., Palomino-Lemus, R., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R., Castro-Díez, Y., and Esteban-Parra, M. J.: Seasonal streamflow prediction in Colombia using atmospheric and oceanic patterns, J. Hydrol., 538, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.003, 2016. 
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger, F.: Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016. 
D'Agostino, R. B. and Stephens, A. M.: Goodness-of-fit techniques, Dekker, New York, 1986. 
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Short summary
The skill of an experimental streamflow forecast system in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark, is analyzed. Inputs to generate the forecasts are taken from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecasting system and an ensemble of observations (ESP). Reduction of biases is achieved by processing the meteorological and/or streamflow forecasts. In general, this is not sufficient to ensure a higher level of accuracy than the ESP, indicating a modest added value of a seasonal meteorological system.