Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 04 Jul 2018
| 04 Jul 2018
Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency
Diana Lucatero
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University
of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Henrik Madsen
DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark
Jens C. Refsgaard
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Copenhagen, Denmark
Jacob Kidmose
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Copenhagen, Denmark
Karsten H. Jensen
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University
of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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- Performance Evaluation of a National Seven-Day Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Service for Australia M. Bari et al. 10.3390/w16101438
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- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126893
- Seasonal hydroclimatic ensemble forecasts anticipate nutrient and suspended sediment loads using a dynamical-statistical approach S. Sharma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c26
- Temporally varied error modelling for improving simulations and quantifying uncertainty L. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124914
- Use of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for Flood Mitigation with Adaptive Reservoir Operation: A Case Study of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011 W. Kompor et al. 10.3390/w12113210
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- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. 10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Climate change impacts and uncertainty on spatiotemporal variations of drought indices for an irrigated catchment S. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126814
- A Bayesian Hierarchical Framework for Postprocessing Daily Streamflow Simulations across a River Network Á. Ossandón et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0167.1
- Post-processing of hydrological model simulations using the convolutional neural network and support vector regression S. Liu et al. 10.2166/nh.2022.004
- Estimating the added value of GRACE total water storage and uncertainty quantification in seasonal streamflow forecasting L. Liu et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1998510
- Hydropower System Operation and the Quality of Short-Term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts M. Osina Torres et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5608
- Sub‐Seasonal Prediction of Drought and Streamflow Anomalies for Water Management in India A. Tiwari & V. Mishra 10.1029/2021JD035737
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Ensemble forecasting system for the management of the Senegal River discharge: application upstream the Manantali dam D. Ndione et al. 10.1007/s13201-020-01199-y
- The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers K. Foster et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
- Modeling ensemble streamflow: Application to the Senegal River upper the Manantali Dam D. Ndione et al. 10.5897/AJEST2018.2567
- Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region A. Muhammad et al. 10.3390/w10111604
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Application of weather post-processing methods for operational ensemble hydrological forecasting on multiple catchments in Canada F. Aguilar Andrade et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131861
- A seven-parameter Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate subseasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127896
- Seasonal Flow Forecasting Using Satellite-Driven Precipitation Data for Awash and Omo-Gibe Basins, Ethiopia S. Woldegebrael et al. 10.3390/rs14184518
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting by surrogate modeling in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China H. Gu et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101835
- Performance Evaluation of a National Seven-Day Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Service for Australia M. Bari et al. 10.3390/w16101438
- Varying-parameter modeling within ensemble architecture: Application to extended streamflow forecasting M. Alobaidi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124511
- Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments D. Foran Quinn et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1874612
- Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach S. Monhart et al. 10.5194/hess-23-493-2019
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126893
- Seasonal hydroclimatic ensemble forecasts anticipate nutrient and suspended sediment loads using a dynamical-statistical approach S. Sharma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c26
- Temporally varied error modelling for improving simulations and quantifying uncertainty L. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124914
- Use of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for Flood Mitigation with Adaptive Reservoir Operation: A Case Study of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011 W. Kompor et al. 10.3390/w12113210
- The Value of Subseasonal Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Hydropower Operations: How Much Does Preprocessing Matter? D. Anghileri et al. 10.1029/2019WR025280
- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. 10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Climate change impacts and uncertainty on spatiotemporal variations of drought indices for an irrigated catchment S. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126814
- A Bayesian Hierarchical Framework for Postprocessing Daily Streamflow Simulations across a River Network Á. Ossandón et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0167.1
- Post-processing of hydrological model simulations using the convolutional neural network and support vector regression S. Liu et al. 10.2166/nh.2022.004
- Estimating the added value of GRACE total water storage and uncertainty quantification in seasonal streamflow forecasting L. Liu et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1998510
- Hydropower System Operation and the Quality of Short-Term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts M. Osina Torres et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5608
- Sub‐Seasonal Prediction of Drought and Streamflow Anomalies for Water Management in India A. Tiwari & V. Mishra 10.1029/2021JD035737
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ensemble forecasting system for the management of the Senegal River discharge: application upstream the Manantali dam D. Ndione et al. 10.1007/s13201-020-01199-y
- The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers K. Foster et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
- Modeling ensemble streamflow: Application to the Senegal River upper the Manantali Dam D. Ndione et al. 10.5897/AJEST2018.2567
- Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region A. Muhammad et al. 10.3390/w10111604
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The skill of an experimental streamflow forecast system in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark, is analyzed. Inputs to generate the forecasts are taken from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecasting system and an ensemble of observations (ESP). Reduction of biases is achieved by processing the meteorological and/or streamflow forecasts. In general, this is not sufficient to ensure a higher level of accuracy than the ESP, indicating a modest added value of a seasonal meteorological system.
The skill of an experimental streamflow forecast system in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark,...
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