Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
12 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 12 Jan 2018

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre

Related authors

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920,,, 2022
Short summary
Assessment of meteorological extremes using a synoptic weather generator and a downscaling model based on analogues
Damien Raynaud, Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Jérémy Chardon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4339–4352,,, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
A gridded multi-site precipitation generator for complex terrain: an evaluation in the Austrian Alps
Hetal P. Dabhi, Mathias W. Rotach, and Michael Oberguggenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2123–2147,,, 2023
Short summary
Technical note: A stochastic framework for identification and evaluation of flash drought
Yuxin Li, Sisi Chen, Jun Yin, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1077–1087,,, 2023
Short summary
Stochastic simulation of reference rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications using a universal multi-fractal approach
Arun Ramanathan, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Daniel Schertzer, Remi Perrin, Lionel Sindt, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6477–6491,,, 2022
Short summary
Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe
Judith Meyer, Malte Neuper, Luca Mathias, Erwin Zehe, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6163–6183,,, 2022
Short summary
A storm-centered multivariate modeling of extreme precipitation frequency based on atmospheric water balance
Yuan Liu and Daniel B. Wright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5241–5267,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723,, 1974.
Asong, Z. E., Khaliq, M. N., and Wheater, H. S.: Projected changes in precipitation and temperature over the Canadian Prairie Provinces using the Generalized Linear Model statistical downscaling approach, J. Hydrol., 539, 429–446,, 2016.
Ben Daoud, A., Sauquet, E., Bontron, G., Obled, C., and Lang, M.: Daily quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the analogue method: improvements and application to a French large river basin, Atmos. Res., 169, Part A, 147–159,, 2016.
Boé, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643–1655,, 2007.
Bontron, G. and Obled, C.: A probabilistic adaptation of meteorological model outputs to hydrological forecasting, Houille Blanche, 23–28, 2005.
Short summary
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day. The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.