Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
 | 
12 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 12 Jan 2018

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre

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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
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Short summary
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day. The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
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