Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 12 Jan 2018
An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France
Jérémy Chardon
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Benoit Hingray
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Anne-Catherine Favre
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate projections of meteotsunami hazards C. Denamiel et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1167863
- A Recursive Approach to Long-Term Prediction of Monthly Precipitation Using Genetic Programming S. Liu & H. Shi 10.1007/s11269-018-2169-0
- Explaining Rainfall Accumulations over Several Days in the French Alps Using Low-Dimensional Atmospheric Predictors Based on Analogy J. Blanchet & J. Creutin 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0112.1
- A Bayesian modelling approach to forecasting short-term reference crop evapotranspiration from GCM outputs T. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.003
- Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany V. Nguyen et al. 10.1002/joc.7107
- Artificial intelligence models for prediction of monthly rainfall without climatic data for meteorological stations in Ethiopia W. Abebe & D. Endalie 10.1186/s40537-022-00683-3
- Optimizing Parameters for the Downscaling of Daily Precipitation in Normal and Drought Periods in South Korea S. Kim et al. 10.3390/w14071108
- Triple coupling random forest approach for bias correction of ensemble precipitation data derived from Earth system models for Divandareh‐Bijar Basin (Western Iran) F. Zebarjadian et al. 10.1002/joc.8458
- Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin D. Viviroli et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022
- A Combination Forecasting Strategy for Precipitation, Temperature and Wind Speed in the Southeastern Margin of the Tengger Desert T. Fu & X. Li 10.3390/su12041489
- Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009) C. Legrand et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024
- Assessment of meteorological extremes using a synoptic weather generator and a downscaling model based on analogues D. Raynaud et al. 10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020
- Characterizing large‐scale circulations driving extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps A. Blanc et al. 10.1002/joc.7254
- Statistical-dynamical analog ensemble system for real time quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) at local scale in the north-west Himalaya (NWH), India D. Singh et al. 10.1007/s00703-024-01048-6
- The analogue method for precipitation prediction: finding better analogue situations at a sub-daily time step P. Horton et al. 10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate projections of meteotsunami hazards C. Denamiel et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1167863
- A Recursive Approach to Long-Term Prediction of Monthly Precipitation Using Genetic Programming S. Liu & H. Shi 10.1007/s11269-018-2169-0
- Explaining Rainfall Accumulations over Several Days in the French Alps Using Low-Dimensional Atmospheric Predictors Based on Analogy J. Blanchet & J. Creutin 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0112.1
- A Bayesian modelling approach to forecasting short-term reference crop evapotranspiration from GCM outputs T. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.003
- Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany V. Nguyen et al. 10.1002/joc.7107
- Artificial intelligence models for prediction of monthly rainfall without climatic data for meteorological stations in Ethiopia W. Abebe & D. Endalie 10.1186/s40537-022-00683-3
- Optimizing Parameters for the Downscaling of Daily Precipitation in Normal and Drought Periods in South Korea S. Kim et al. 10.3390/w14071108
- Triple coupling random forest approach for bias correction of ensemble precipitation data derived from Earth system models for Divandareh‐Bijar Basin (Western Iran) F. Zebarjadian et al. 10.1002/joc.8458
- Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin D. Viviroli et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022
- A Combination Forecasting Strategy for Precipitation, Temperature and Wind Speed in the Southeastern Margin of the Tengger Desert T. Fu & X. Li 10.3390/su12041489
- Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009) C. Legrand et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024
- Assessment of meteorological extremes using a synoptic weather generator and a downscaling model based on analogues D. Raynaud et al. 10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020
- Characterizing large‐scale circulations driving extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps A. Blanc et al. 10.1002/joc.7254
- Statistical-dynamical analog ensemble system for real time quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) at local scale in the north-west Himalaya (NWH), India D. Singh et al. 10.1007/s00703-024-01048-6
Latest update: 31 May 2025
Short summary
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day.
The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local...
