Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 May 2015
Research article |
| 08 May 2015
Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin
Hydraulics Laboratory, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Faculty of Technoscience, Muni University, P.O. Box 725, Arua, Uganda
P. Willems
Hydraulics Laboratory, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Brussel, Belgium
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R2 despite its wide use in assessing model performance has several drawbacks. While taking into account the drawbacks, this paper introduces another metric (coefficient of model accuracy MCA) which is capable of assessing "goodness-of-fits". Stepwise derivation of CMA comprises an analogy to the R2. Suitability of CMA for assessing model performance was demonstrated through comparison of simulations by hydrological models calibrated using CMA and other existing objective functions.
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To investigate the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, three rainfall-runoff models were applied to the main catchments of the Nile Basin in Africa based on inputs covering the period from 1940 to 2003. There was close agreement between the changes in the observed and simulated overland flow from all the models. Thus, change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal.
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Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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A storm-centered multivariate modeling of extreme precipitation frequency based on atmospheric water balance
Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective
Stochastic daily rainfall generation on tropical islands with complex topography
A gridded multi-site precipitation generator for complex terrain: An evaluation in the Austrian Alps
Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
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Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin
Conditional simulation of spatial rainfall fields using random mixing: a study that implements full control over the stochastic process
Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change impact analysis on precipitation-driven drought
Technical Note: Temporal disaggregation of spatial rainfall fields with generative adversarial networks
A standardized index for assessing sub-monthly compound dry and hot conditions with application in China
Assessment of meteorological extremes using a synoptic weather generator and a downscaling model based on analogues
A new discrete multiplicative random cascade model for downscaling intermittent rainfall fields
Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: new developments
Nonstationary stochastic rain type generation: accounting for climate drivers
Conditional simulation of surface rainfall fields using modified phase annealing
Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model
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Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: an objective cross-validation framework for model selection
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Estimating radar precipitation in cold climates: the role of air temperature within a non-parametric framework
Dealing with non-stationarity in sub-daily stochastic rainfall models
Rainfall disaggregation for hydrological modeling: is there a need for spatial consistence?
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A classification algorithm for selective dynamical downscaling of precipitation extremes
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Yuxin Li, Sisi Chen, Jun Yin, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1077–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1077-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1077-2023, 2023
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Arun Ramanathan, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Daniel Schertzer, Remi Perrin, Lionel Sindt, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia
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Judith Meyer, Malte Neuper, Luca Mathias, Erwin Zehe, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6163–6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022, 2022
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Yuan Liu and Daniel B. Wright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5241–5267, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5241-2022, 2022
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Yuan Li, Zhiyong Wu, Hai He, and Hao Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4975–4994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022, 2022
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The relationship between atmospheric intraseasonal signals and precipitation is highly uncertain and depends on the region and lead time. In this study, we develop a spatiotemporal projection, based on a Bayesian hierarchical model (STP-BHM), to address the above challenge. The results suggest that the STP-BHM model is skillful and reliable for probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts over China during the boreal summer monsoon season.
Lionel Benoit, Lydie Sichoix, Alison D. Nugent, Matthew P. Lucas, and Thomas W. Giambelluca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2113–2129, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2113-2022, 2022
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This study presents a probabilistic model able to reproduce the spatial patterns of rainfall on tropical islands with complex topography. It sheds new light on rainfall variability at the island scale, and explores the links between rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation. The proposed model has been tested on two islands of the tropical Pacific, and demonstrates good skills in simulating both site-specific and island-scale rain behavior.
Hetal Dabhi, Mathias Rotach, and Michael Oberguggenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-21, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Jana Ulrich, Felix S. Fauer, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021
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The characteristics of extreme precipitation on different timescales as well as in different seasons are relevant information, e.g., for designing hydrological structures or managing water supplies. Therefore, our aim is to describe these characteristics simultaneously within one model. We find similar characteristics for short extreme precipitation at all considered stations in Germany but pronounced regional differences with respect to the seasonality of long-lasting extreme events.
Jiayi Fang, Thomas Wahl, Jian Fang, Xun Sun, Feng Kong, and Min Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021
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A comprehensive assessment of compound flooding potential is missing for China. We investigate dependence, drivers, and impacts of storm surge and precipitation for coastal China. Strong dependence exists between driver combinations, with variations of seasons and thresholds. Sea level rise escalates compound flood potential. Meteorology patterns are pronounced for low and high compound flood potential. Joint impacts from surge and precipitation were much higher than from each individually.
Jamie Towner, Andrea Ficchí, Hannah L. Cloke, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M. Stephens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021, 2021
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Jieru Yan, Fei Li, András Bárdossy, and Tao Tao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3819–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3819-2021, 2021
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Hossein Tabari, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Daan Buekenhout, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3493–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, 2021
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3207–3225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3207-2021, 2021
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Jun Li, Zhaoli Wang, Xushu Wu, Jakob Zscheischler, Shenglian Guo, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1587–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, 2021
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We introduce a daily-scale index, termed the standardized compound drought and heat index (SCDHI), to measure the key features of compound dry-hot conditions. SCDHI can not only monitor the long-term compound dry-hot events, but can also capture such events at sub-monthly scale and reflect the related vegetation activity impacts. The index can provide a new tool to quantify sub-monthly characteristics of compound dry-hot events, which are vital for releasing early and timely warning.
Damien Raynaud, Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Jérémy Chardon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4339–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, 2020
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This research paper proposes a weather generator combining two sampling approaches. A first generator recombines large-scale atmospheric situations. A second generator is applied to these atmospheric trajectories in order to simulate long time series of daily regional precipitation and temperature. The method is applied to daily time series in Switzerland. It reproduces adequately the observed climatology and improves the reproduction of extreme precipitation values.
Marc Schleiss
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3699–3723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3699-2020, 2020
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A new way to downscale rainfall fields based on the notion of equal-volume areas (EVAs) is proposed. Experiments conducted on 100 rainfall events in the Netherlands show that the EVA method outperforms classical methods based on fixed grid cell sizes, producing fields with more realistic spatial structures. The main novelty of the method lies in its adaptive sampling strategy, which avoids many of the mathematical challenges associated with the presence of zero rainfall values.
Christian Onof and Li-Pen Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2791–2815, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2791-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2791-2020, 2020
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The randomised Bartlett–Lewis (RBL) model is widely used to synthesise rainfall time series with realistic statistical features. However, it tended to underestimate rainfall extremes at sub-hourly and hourly timescales. In this paper, we revisit the derivation of equations that represent rainfall properties and compare statistical estimation methods that impact model calibration. These changes effectively improved the RBL model's capacity to reproduce sub-hourly and hourly rainfall extremes.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, 2020
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At subdaily resolution, rain intensity exhibits a strong variability in space and time due to the diversity of processes that produce rain (e.g., frontal storms, mesoscale convective systems and local convection). In this paper we explore a new method to simulate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates. Afterwards, we apply stochastic rain type simulation to the downscaling of precipitation of a regional climate model.
Jieru Yan, András Bárdossy, Sebastian Hörning, and Tao Tao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2287–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2287-2020, 2020
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For applications such as flood forecasting of urban- or town-scale distributed hydrological modeling, high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) with enough accuracy is the most important driving factor and thus the focus of this paper. Considering the fact that rain gauges are sparse but accurate and radar-based precipitation estimates are inaccurate but densely distributed, we are merging the two types of data intellectually to obtain accurate QPEs with high resolution.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
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We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
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The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Jeongha Park, Christian Onof, and Dongkyun Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 989–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019
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Rainfall data are often unavailable for the analysis of water-related problems such as floods and droughts. In such cases, researchers use rainfall generators to produce synthetic rainfall data. However, data from most rainfall generators can serve only one specific purpose; i.e. one rainfall generator cannot be applied to analyse both floods and droughts. To overcome this issue, we invented a multipurpose rainfall generator that can be applied to analyse most water-related problems.
Juliette Blanchet, Emmanuel Paquet, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 829–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-829-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-829-2019, 2019
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We propose an objective framework for estimating rainfall cumulative distribution functions in a region when data are only available at rain gauges. Our methodology allows us to assess goodness-of-fit of the full distribution, but with a particular focus on its tail. It is applied to daily rainfall in the Ardèche catchment in the south of France. Results show a preference for a mixture of Gamma distribution over seasons and weather patterns, with parameters interpolated with a thin plate spline.
Diana Lucatero, Henrik Madsen, Jens C. Refsgaard, Jacob Kidmose, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6591–6609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6591-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6591-2018, 2018
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The present study evaluates the skill of a seasonal forecasting system for hydrological relevant variables in Denmark. Linear scaling and quantile mapping were used to correct the forecasts. Uncorrected forecasts tend to be more skillful than climatology, in general, for the first month lead time only. Corrected forecasts show a reduced bias in the mean; are more consistent; and show a level of accuracy that is closer to, although no higher than, that of ensemble climatology, in general.
Kuganesan Sivasubramaniam, Ashish Sharma, and Knut Alfredsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6533–6546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6533-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6533-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the use of gauge precipitation and air temperature observations to ascertain radar precipitation in cold climates. The use of air temperature as an additional variable in a non-parametric model improved the estimation of radar precipitation significantly. Further, it was found that the temperature effects became insignificant when air temperature was above 10 °C. The findings from this study could be important for using radar precipitation for hydrological applications.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, 2018
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We propose a method for unsupervised classification of the space–time–intensity structure of weather radar images. The resulting classes are interpreted as rain types, i.e. pools of rain fields with homogeneous statistical properties. Rain types can in turn be used to define stationary periods for further stochastic rainfall modelling. The application of rain typing to real data indicates that non-stationarity can be significant within meteorological seasons, and even within a single storm.
Hannes Müller-Thomy, Markus Wallner, and Kristian Förster
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5259–5280, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5259-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5259-2018, 2018
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Rainfall time series are disaggregated from daily to hourly values to be used for rainfall–runoff modeling of mesoscale catchments. Spatial rainfall consistency is implemented afterwards using simulated annealing. With the calibration process applied, observed runoff statistics (e.g., summer and winter peak flows) are represented well. However, rainfall datasets with under- or over-estimation of spatial consistency lead to similar results, so the need for a good representation can be questioned.
Xinjun Tu, Yiliang Du, Vijay P. Singh, Xiaohong Chen, Kairong Lin, and Haiou Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5175–5189, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5175-2018, 2018
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For given frequencies of precipitation of a large region, design water demands of irrigation of the entire region among three methods, i.e., equalized frequency, typical year and most-likely weight function, slightly differed, but their alterations in sub-regions were complicated. A design procedure using the most-likely weight function in association with a high-dimensional copula, which built a linkage between regional frequency and sub-regional frequency of precipitation, is recommended.
A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman, M. Shakil Ahmed, Hasnat Mohammad Adnan, Mohammad Kamruzzaman, M. Abdul Khalek, Quamrul Hasan Mazumder, and Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4213-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4213-2018, 2018
Edmund P. Meredith, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4183–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, 2018
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Kilometre-scale climate-model data are of great benefit to both hydrologists and end users studying extreme precipitation, though often unavailable due to the computational expense associated with such high-resolution simulations. We develop a method which identifies days with enhanced risk of extreme rainfall over a catchment, so that high-resolution simulations can be performed only when such a risk exists, reducing computational expense by over 90 % while still well capturing the extremes.
Diana Lucatero, Henrik Madsen, Jens C. Refsgaard, Jacob Kidmose, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3601–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018, 2018
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The skill of an experimental streamflow forecast system in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark, is analyzed. Inputs to generate the forecasts are taken from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecasting system and an ensemble of observations (ESP). Reduction of biases is achieved by processing the meteorological and/or streamflow forecasts. In general, this is not sufficient to ensure a higher level of accuracy than the ESP, indicating a modest added value of a seasonal meteorological system.
Sanjeev K. Jha, Durga L. Shrestha, Tricia A. Stadnyk, and Paulin Coulibaly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1957–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1957-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1957-2018, 2018
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The output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is known to have errors. River forecast centers in Canada mostly use precipitation forecasts directly obtained from American and Canadian NWP models. In this study, we evaluate the forecast performance of ensembles generated by a Bayesian post-processing approach in cold climates. We demonstrate that the post-processing approach generates bias-free forecasts and provides a better picture of uncertainty in the case of an extreme event.
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Pere Quintana-Seguí, and Anaïs Barella-Ortiz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1371-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1371-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the use of a nonparametric model for combining multiple global precipitation datasets and characterizing estimation uncertainty. Inputs to the model included three satellite precipitation products, an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation dataset, satellite-derived near-surface daily soil moisture data, and terrain elevation. We evaluated the technique based on high-resolution reference precipitation data and further used generated ensembles to force a hydrological model.
David Cross, Christian Onof, Hugo Winter, and Pietro Bernardara
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 727–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-727-2018, 2018
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Extreme rainfall is one of the most significant natural hazards. However, estimating very large events is highly uncertain. We present a new approach to construct intense rainfall using the structure of rainfall generation in clouds. The method is particularly effective at estimating short-duration extremes, which can be the most damaging. This is expected to have immediate impact for the estimation of very rare downpours, with the potential to improve climate resilience and hazard preparedness.
Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, 2018
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We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day.
The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
Christoph Ritschel, Uwe Ulbrich, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6501–6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, 2017
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A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is compared to the original series in terms of intensity–duration frequency curves. Basis for the latter curves is a parametric model for the duration dependence of the underlying extreme value model allowing a consistent estimation of one single duration-dependent distribution using all duration series simultaneously. The stochastic model reproduces the curves except for very rare extreme events.
Poulomi Ganguli and Paulin Coulibaly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6461–6483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6461-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6461-2017, 2017
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Using statistical models, we test whether nonstationary versus stationary models show any significant differences in terms of design storm intensity at different durations across Southern Ontario. We find that detectable nonstationarity in rainfall extremes does not necessarily lead to significant differences in design storm intensity, especially for shorter return periods. An update of 2–44 % is required in current design standards to mitigate the risk of storm-induced urban flooding.
Daniele Nerini, Nikola Besic, Ioannis Sideris, Urs Germann, and Loris Foresti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2777–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2777-2017, 2017
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Stochastic generators are effective tools for the quantification of uncertainty in a number of applications with weather radar data, including quantitative precipitation estimation and very short-term forecasting. However, most of the current stochastic rainfall field generators cannot handle spatial non-stationarity. We propose an approach based on the short-space Fourier transform, which aims to reproduce the local spatial structure of the observed rainfall fields.
Tobias Mosthaf and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2463–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2463-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2463-2017, 2017
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Parametric distribution functions are commonly used to model precipitation amounts at gauged and ungauged locations. Nonparametric distributions offer a more flexible way to model precipitation amounts. However, the nonparametric models do not exhibit parameters that can be easily regionalized for application at ungauged locations. To overcome this deficiency, we present a new interpolation scheme for nonparametric models and evaluate the usage of daily gauges for sub-daily resolutions.
Claudia Volosciuk, Douglas Maraun, Mathieu Vrac, and Martin Widmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, 2017
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For impact modeling, infrastructure design, or adaptation strategy planning, high-quality climate data on the point scale are often demanded. Due to the scale gap between gridbox and point scale and biases in climate models, we combine a statistical bias correction and a stochastic downscaling model and apply it to climate model-simulated precipitation. The method performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best for mild winter climate (Mediterranean) and worst for continental winter.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
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To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Kue Bum Kim, Hyun-Han Kwon, and Dawei Han
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2019–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2019-2016, 2016
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A primary advantage of using model ensembles for climate change impact studies is to represent the uncertainties associated with models through the ensemble spread. Currently, most of the conventional bias correction methods adjust all the ensemble members to one reference observation. As a result, the ensemble spread is degraded during bias correction. However the proposed method is able to correct the bias and conform to the ensemble spread so that the ensemble information can be better used.
E. P. Maurer, D. L. Ficklin, and W. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 685–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-685-2016, 2016
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To translate climate model output from its native coarse scale to a finer scale more representative of that at which societal impacts are experienced, a common method applied is statistical downscaling. A component of many statistical downscaling techniques is quantile mapping (QM). QM can be applied at different spatial scales, and here we study how skill varies with spatial scale. We find the highest skill is generally obtained when applying QM at approximately a 50 km spatial scale.
S. Sadri, J. Kam, and J. Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-633-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-633-2016, 2016
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Low flows are a critical part of the river flow regime but little is known about how they are changing in response to human influences and climate. We analyzed low flow records across the eastern US and identified sites that were minimally influenced by human activities. We found a general increasing trend in low flows across the northeast and decreasing trend across the southeast that are likely driven by changes in climate. The results have implications for how we manage our water resources.
S.-H. Suh, C.-H. You, and D.-I. Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 193–207, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-193-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-193-2016, 2016
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This paper was written to find the climatological characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) with respect to the wind direction in Busan, Korea. The data were collected by POSS disdrometer during 4 years (2001–2004).
Busan shows the tendency of land-sea breeze. When sea wind blows during rainfall period, mean size and number concentration of raindrop are smaller and larger than that of land wind blows, respectively. It means that the features of DSD depend on the wind direction.
W. Zhan, M. Pan, N. Wanders, and E. F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4275–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4275-2015, 2015
G. G. Oliveira, O. C. Pedrollo, and N. M. R. Castro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3585–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3585-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3585-2015, 2015
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The objective of this study was to analyze the changes and uncertainties related to water availability in the future, in the Ijuí River basin (south of Brazil), using a stochastic approach. In general the results showed a trend to increased flows. It can be concluded that there is a tendency to increase the hydrological variability during the period between 2011 and 2040, which indicates the possibility of occurrence of time series with more marked periods of droughts and floods.
A. K. Fleig, L. M. Tallaksen, P. James, H. Hisdal, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, 2015
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015
M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5331–5344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5331-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5331-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions. This finding is vital for a number of water management and planning aspects. To give just one example, it may help in obtaining improved quantiles for flood or drought/water scarcity risk management. This is especially important under conditions of (1) questionable data quality, and (2) data scarcity. These conditions are typical of the Nile Basin and inevitably need to be addressed.
Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean...
