Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
Research article
05 Jan 2024
Research article |  | 05 Jan 2024

Exploring the joint probability of precipitation and soil moisture over Europe using copulas

Carmelo Cammalleri, Carlo De Michele, and Andrea Toreti

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Cited articles

Aas, K., Czado, C., Frigessi, A., and Bakken, H.: Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence, Ins. Math. Econ., 44, 182–198,, 2009. 
Aghakouchak, A., Ciach, G., and Habib, E.: Estimation of tail dependence coefficient in rainfall accumulation fields, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 1142–1149,, 2010. 
Almenda-Martín, L., Martínez-Fernández, J., Piles, M., González-Zamora, A., Benito-Verdugo, P., and Gaona, J.: Influence of atmospheric patterns on soil moisture dynamics in Europe, Sci. Total Environ., 846, 157537,, 2022. 
Anderson, M. C., Hain, C., Wardlow, B., Pimstein, A., Mecikalski, J. R., and Kustas, W. P.: Evaluation of drought indices based on thermal remote sensing of evapotranspiration over the continental United States, J. Climate, 24, 2025–2044,, 2011. 
Short summary
Precipitation and soil moisture have the potential to be jointly used for the modeling of drought conditions. In this research, we analysed how their statistical inter-relationship varies across Europe. We found some clear spatial patterns, especially in the so-called tail dependence (which measures the strength of the relationship for the extreme values). The results suggest that the tail dependence needs to be accounted for to correctly assess the value of joint modeling for drought.