Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 871–887, 2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 871–887, 2018

Research article 01 Feb 2018

Research article | 01 Feb 2018

State updating and calibration period selection to improve dynamic monthly streamflow forecasts for an environmental flow management application

Matthew S. Gibbs et al.

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Cited articles

Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO, RomeFAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, 300 pp., 1998. 
Andrews, F. T., Croke, B. F. W., and Jakeman, A. J.: An open software environment for hydrological model assessment and development, Environ. Modell. Softw., 26, 1171–1185, 2011. 
Avey, S. and Harvey, D.: How water scientists and lawyers can work together: A 'down under' solution to a water resource management problem, Journal of Water Law, 24, 25-61, 2014. 
Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Pokhrel, P., and Robertson, D. E.: The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1–3 months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 219–233,, 2014. 
Berthet, L.: Prévision des crues au pas de temps horaire : pour une meilleure assimilation de l'information de débit dans un modèle hydrologique, AgroParisTech, 2010. 
Short summary
This work developed models to predict how much water will be available in the next month to maximise environmental and social outcomes in southern Australia. Initialising the models with observed streamflow data, instead of warmed up by rainfall data, improved the results, even at a monthly lead time, making sure only data representative of the forecast period to develop the models were also important. If this step was ignored, and instead all data were used, poor predictions could be produced.