Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-871-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-871-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
 | 
01 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 01 Feb 2018

State updating and calibration period selection to improve dynamic monthly streamflow forecasts for an environmental flow management application

Matthew S. Gibbs, David McInerney, Greer Humphrey, Mark A. Thyer, Holger R. Maier, Graeme C. Dandy, and Dmitri Kavetski

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Short summary
This work developed models to predict how much water will be available in the next month to maximise environmental and social outcomes in southern Australia. Initialising the models with observed streamflow data, instead of warmed up by rainfall data, improved the results, even at a monthly lead time, making sure only data representative of the forecast period to develop the models were also important. If this step was ignored, and instead all data were used, poor predictions could be produced.
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Special issue
Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting