Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 22 Aug 2016
Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China
Xingcai Liu
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
Nathalie Voisin
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1100 N Dexter Ave, Seattle, WA,
USA
Huijuan Cui
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
Related authors
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of the reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers and data users.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
P. Attarod, Q. Tang, J. T. Van Stan II, T. G. Pypker, and X. Liu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-117-2019, 2019
X. Liu and Q. Tang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 679–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-679-2019, 2019
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Chi Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Deliang Chen, Laifang Li, Xingcai Liu, and Huijuan Cui
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10383–10393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Southwest China (SWC) has decreased significantly in recent years. By tracking precipitation moisture, we found that the reduced precipitation results from the reduced moisture supply from the extended west, which is influenced by the South Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies. Further study revealed the dynamic variations in circulation dominate the interannual variations in SWC precipitation. Changes in circulation systems may be related to the recent changes in SSTs.
Yuanyuan Yin, Qiuhong Tang, Xingcai Liu, and Xuejun Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-791-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-791-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its impact on food production in the Yellow River basin. The rapidly increasing industrial water demand will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of water scarcity. The industrial water demand is the main contributing factor to water scarcity. Water scarcity will lead to at least 9 % reduction in food production in 2084. This suggests that a trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.
Y. Yin, Q. Tang, and X. Liu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, 2015
X. Liu, X.-J. Zhang, Q. Tang, and X.-Z. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2803–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014, 2014
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Lei Huang, Yong Luo, Jing M. Chen, Qiuhong Tang, Tammo Steenhuis, Wei Cheng, and Wen Shi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3993–4019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Timely global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) data are crucial for water resource management and drought forecasting. This study introduces the VISEA algorithm, which integrates satellite data and shortwave radiation to provide daily 0.05° gridded near-real-time ET estimates. By employing a vegetation index–temperature method, this algorithm can estimate ET without requiring additional data. Evaluation results demonstrate VISEA's comparable accuracy with accelerated data availability.
Yongyong Zhang, Yongqiang Zhang, Xiaoyan Zhai, Jun Xia, Qiuhong Tang, Wei Wang, Jian Wu, Xiaoyu Niu, and Bing Han
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-126, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to investigate flood variabilities and their formation mechanisms from massive event samples. This study explores spatiotemporal variabilities of 1446 flood events using hierarchical and partitional clustering methods. Control mechanisms of meteorological and physio-geographical factors are explored for individual flood event classes using constrained rank analysis. It provides insights into comprehensive changes of flood events, and aids in flood prediction and control.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of the reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers and data users.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Zhihui Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Daoxi Wang, Peiqing Xiao, Runliang Xia, Pengcheng Sun, and Feng Feng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5291–5314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Variable infiltration capacity simulation considering dynamic vegetation types and structural parameters is able to better capture the effect of temporally explicit vegetation change and climate variation in hydrological regimes. Vegetation greening including interannual LAI and intra-annual LAI temporal pattern change induced by large-scale ecological restoration and non-vegetation underlying surface change played dominant roles in the natural streamflow reduction of the Yellow River basin.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Farhad Hooshyaripor, Sanaz Faraji-Ashkavar, Farshad Koohyian, Qiuhong Tang, and Roohollah Noori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2739–2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2739-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2739-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of El Niño on flood damage was investigated. The methodology was based on the calculation of increasing rainfall amount during El Niño events compared to normal conditions. With the southern oscillation index equal to −1.0 as the threshold of El Niño, the annual percentage of increased rainfall is 12.2 %. The annual change factor may not necessarily be transferred to extreme values. Nonetheless, the change factor was applied for generating simulated storms of different return periods.
Sean W. D. Turner, Wenwei Xu, and Nathalie Voisin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1275–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1275-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To understand human vulnerability to flood and drought risk across large regions, researchers increasingly use large-scale hydrological models that convert climate to river flows. These models include the important effects of river regulation by dams but do not currently capture dam operators' use of flow forecasts to mitigate risk. This research addresses this problem by developing an approach to infer the forecast horizons contributing to the operations of a large sample of dams.
X. Xu and Q. Tang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 1065–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-1065-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-1065-2019, 2019
P. Attarod, Q. Tang, J. T. Van Stan II, T. G. Pypker, and X. Liu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-117-2019, 2019
X. Liu and Q. Tang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 679–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-679-2019, 2019
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Qinghuan Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, John F. Knowles, and Ben Livneh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-52, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The uncertainty from model parameters is not well understood compared to that from climate data in hydrologic modeling. This study quantifies the projection uncertainty in three hydrologic variables using a group of best performing parameter sets. It shows that model parameter uncertainty takes an important role in hydrologic modeling, especially for seasonal projections. Thus it is necessary to consider multiple optimal parameter sets in hydrologic projection and water resources management.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Chi Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Deliang Chen, Laifang Li, Xingcai Liu, and Huijuan Cui
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10383–10393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Southwest China (SWC) has decreased significantly in recent years. By tracking precipitation moisture, we found that the reduced precipitation results from the reduced moisture supply from the extended west, which is influenced by the South Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies. Further study revealed the dynamic variations in circulation dominate the interannual variations in SWC precipitation. Changes in circulation systems may be related to the recent changes in SSTs.
Yuanyuan Yin, Qiuhong Tang, Xingcai Liu, and Xuejun Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-791-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-791-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its impact on food production in the Yellow River basin. The rapidly increasing industrial water demand will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of water scarcity. The industrial water demand is the main contributing factor to water scarcity. Water scarcity will lead to at least 9 % reduction in food production in 2084. This suggests that a trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.
R. G. Anderson, M.-H. Lo, S. Swenson, J. S. Famiglietti, Q. Tang, T. H. Skaggs, Y.-H. Lin, and R.-J. Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3021–3031, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3021-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3021-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Current land surface models (LSMs) poorly represent irrigation impacts on regional hydrology. Approaches to include irrigation in LSMs are based on either potentially outdated irrigation inventory data or soil moisture curves that are not constrained by regional water balances. We use satellite remote sensing of actual ET and groundwater depletion to develop recent estimates of regional irrigation data. Remote sensing parameterizations of irrigation improve model performance.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
Y. Yin, Q. Tang, and X. Liu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, 2015
X. Liu, X.-J. Zhang, Q. Tang, and X.-Z. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2803–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014, 2014
N. Voisin, L. Liu, M. Hejazi, T. Tesfa, H. Li, M. Huang, Y. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4555–4575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, 2013
Y. Tang, Q. Tang, F. Tian, Z. Zhang, and G. Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4471–4480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4471-2013, 2013
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Drivers of global irrigation expansion: the role of discrete global grid choice
Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions
Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020
Global-scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling
Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Unveiling hydrological dynamics in data-scarce regions: experiences from the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin
Technical note: Comparing three different methods for allocating river points to coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid cells
Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model
The effect of climate change on the simulated streamflow of six Canadian rivers based on the CanRCM4 regional climate model
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of WGHM in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate
Diagnosing modeling errors in global terrestrial water storage interannual variability
Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent
Poor correlation between large-scale environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity: implications for water resource management and the freshwater planetary boundary
Accuracy of five ground heat flux empirical simulation methods in the surface-energy-balance-based remote-sensing evapotranspiration models
Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff
Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data
Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh
Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States
Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes
Inundation prediction in tropical wetlands from JULES-CaMa-Flood global land surface simulations
Soil moisture estimation in South Asia via assimilation of SMAP retrievals
Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle
The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations
Large-scale sensitivities of groundwater and surface water to groundwater withdrawal
A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models
A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods
Bright and blind spots of water research in Latin America and the Caribbean
Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters
Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management
Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling
Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review
Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River basin under climate change
Evaluation of 18 satellite- and model-based soil moisture products using in situ measurements from 826 sensors
The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach
Sophie Wagner, Fabian Stenzel, Tobias Krueger, and Jana de Wiljes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Statistical models that explain global irrigation rely on location-referenced data. Traditionally, a system based on longitude and latitude lines is chosen. However, this introduces bias to the analysis due to the Earth's curvature. We propose using a system based on hexagonal grid cells that allows for distortion-free representation of the data. We show that this increases the model's accuracy by 28 % and identify biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of historical global irrigation expansion.
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future climate projections suggest that climate change will impact groundwater recharge, with its exact effects being uncertain due to incomplete understanding of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and recharge relations. We studied the effects of changes in the average, spread, and frequency of extreme events of rainfall and evapotranspiration on groundwater recharge. We found that increasing or decreasing the potential evaporation has the most dominant effect on groundwater recharge.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Omar V. Müller, Patrick C. McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2179–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a pioneering comprehensive integrated approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, we offer a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work was performed in order to precisely address a point that is often neglected by hydrologists: the allocation of points located on a river network to grid cells, which is often a mandatory step for hydrological modelling.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-182, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study is likely the first Canada-wide assessment of climate change impact on the hydro-climatology of its major river basins. It finds that the precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia Rivers which are located in the milder Pacific north-western region.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work, we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affects weather prediction.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Xiufeng He, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4551–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using evidence from meteorological stations, this study assessed the climatic, hydrological, and ecological aridity changes in global drylands and their associated mechanisms. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. This highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Petra Döll, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Fabrice Papa, and Andreas Güntner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We calibrate a global hydrological model using multiple observations to analyse the benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration. We found such an approach to be very important for understanding the real-world system. However, some observations are very essential to the system, in particular streamflow. We also showed uncertainties in the calibration results, which is often useful for making informed decisions. We emphasis to consider observation uncertainty in model calibration.
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission enabled the quantification of water mass redistributions from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of GRACE satellite data shows here that slow changes in terrestrial water storage occurring over a few years to a decade are severely underestimated by global hydrological models. Several sources of errors may explain such biases, likely including the inaccurate representation of groundwater storage changes.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to improvements in the model characterization of water and energy fluxes. The results show that multi-objective autocalibration in combination with mathematical regularization is a powerful tool to improve land surface models. Using the direct measurement of turbulent fluxes as the target variable, parameter optimization matches simulations and observations of latent heat, whereas sensible heat is clearly biased.
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Zhaofei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground heat flux (G) accounts for a significant fraction of the surface energy balance (SEB), but there is insufficient research on these models compared with other flux. The accuracy of G simulation methods in the SEB-based remote sensing evapotranspiration models is evaluated. Results show that the accuracy of each method varied significantly at different sites and at half-hour intervals. Further improvement of G simulations is recommended for the remote sensing evapotranspiration modelers.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use three models to forecast river streamflow operationally for 13 months (September 2020 to October 2021) at 10 gauges in the western US. The first model is a state-of-the-art physics-based streamflow model (GloFAS). The second applies a bias-correction technique to GloFAS. The third is a type of neural network (an LSTM). We find that all three are capable of producing skilful forecasts but that the LSTM performs the best, with skilful 5 d forecasts at nine stations.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Yu Tian, Denghua Yan, Weixin Xu, Huayang Cai, Jiabiao Wang, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4233–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection. Specifically, the intersection operation of the coefficient of determination derives the overlapping information for GCM forecasts and the Niño3.4 index, and then the difference operation determines the differing information in GCM forecasts (Niño3.4 index) from the Niño3.4 index (GCM forecasts).
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Jawairia A. Ahmad, Barton A. Forman, and Sujay V. Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2221–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data-scarce regions.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Andreas Güntner, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1089–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the effect of how vegetation is defined in a global hydrological model on the composition of total water storage (TWS). We compare two experiments, one with globally uniform and one with vegetation parameters that vary in space and time. While both experiments are constrained against observational data, we found a drastic change in the partitioning of TWS, highlighting the important role of the interaction between groundwater–soil moisture–vegetation in understanding TWS variations.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Alyssa J. DeVincentis, Hervé Guillon, Romina Díaz Gómez, Noelle K. Patterson, Francine van den Brandeler, Arthur Koehl, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Laura E. Garza-Díaz, Jennifer Gamez-Rodríguez, Erfan Goharian, and Samuel Sandoval Solis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4631–4650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Latin America and the Caribbean face many water-related stresses which are expected to worsen with climate change. To assess the vulnerability, we reviewed over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the regional landscape. Results reveal that the region’s inherent vulnerability is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on one country (Brazil).
Michiel Maertens, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sebastian Apers, Sujay V. Kumar, and Sarith P. P. Mahanama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4099–4125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we simulated the water balance over the South American Dry Chaco and assessed the impact of land cover changes thereon using three different land surface models. Our simulations indicated that different models result in a different partitioning of the total water budget, but all showed an increase in soil moisture and percolation over the deforested areas. We also found that, relative to independent data, no specific land surface model is significantly better than another.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water, energy and carbon cycle on land. Reliable ET estimates are key to understand droughts and flooding. We develop a new ET dataset, DOLCE V3, by merging multiple global ET datasets, and we show that it matches ET observations better and hence is more reliable than its parent datasets. Next, we use DOLCE V3 to examine recent changes in ET and find that ET has increased over most of the land, decreased in some regions, and has not changed in some other regions
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how deep learning models use different meteorological data sets in the task of (regional) rainfall–runoff modeling. We show that performance can be significantly improved when using different data products as input and further show how the model learns to combine those meteorological input differently across time and space. The results are carefully benchmarked against classical approaches, showing the supremacy of the presented approach.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, and Richard B. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1365–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Amid growing interest in using large-scale hydrological models for flood and drought monitoring and forecasting, it is important to evaluate common assumptions these models make. We investigated the representation of reservoirs as separate (non-coordinated) infrastructure. We found that not appropriately representing coordination and control processes can lead a hydrological model to simulate flood and drought events that would not occur given the coordinated emergency response in the basin.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Laura E. Queen, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a large ensemble of simulated flows throughout the northwestern USA, we compare daily flood statistics in the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–1999) periods and find that nearly all locations will experience an increase in flood magnitudes. The flood season expands significantly in many currently snow-dominant rivers, moving from only spring to both winter and spring. These results, properly extended, may help inform flood risk management and negotiations of the Columbia River Treaty.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Yared Abayneh Abebe, Amineh Ghorbani, Igor Nikolic, Natasa Manojlovic, Angelika Gruhn, and Zoran Vojinovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for Hamburg, Germany. It explores residents’ adaptation behaviour in relation to flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. We found that unique trajectories of adaptation behaviour emerge from different flood event series. Providing subsidies improves adaptation behaviour in the long run. The coupled modelling technique allows the role of individual measures in flood risk management to be examined.
Cited articles
Bahadori, A., Zahedi, G., and Zendehboudi, S.: An overview of Australia's hydropower energy: Status and future prospects, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 20, 565—569, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.12.026, 2013.
Bartos, M. D. and Chester, M. V.: Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States, Nature Clim. Change, 5, 748–752, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2648, 2015.
Biemans, H., Haddeland, I., Kabat, P., Ludwig, F., Hutjes, R. W. A., Heinke, J., von Bloh, W., and Gerten, D.: Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03509, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008929, 2011.
Chang, X., Liu, X., and Zhou, W.: Hydropower in China at present and its further development, Energy, 35, 4400–4406, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.051, 2010.
China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC): China Renewable Energy Outline 2012, available at: http://www.cnrec.org.cn/english/publication/2014-01-20-408.html (last access: 10 January 2016), 2013.
China renewable energy engineering institute (CREEI): Summary on the survey of water resources of China, China Electric Power Press, Beijing, 267, 2004. (in Chinese)
Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., and Qian, T.: A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 1117–1130, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-386.1, 2004.
Davie, J. C. S., Falloon, P. D., Kahana, R., Dankers, R., Betts, R., Portmann, F. T., Wisser, D., Clark, D. B., Ito, A., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Fekete, B., Tessler, Z., Wada, Y., Liu, X., Tang, Q., Hagemann, S., Stacke, T., Pavlick, R., Schaphoff, S., Gosling, S. N., Franssen, W., and Arnell, N.: Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013.
Döll, P., Fiedler, K., and Zhang, J.: Global-scale analysis of river flow alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2413–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-2413-2009, 2009.
Döll, P., Douville, H., Güntner, A., Müller Schmied, H., and Wada, Y.: Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects, Surv. Geophys., 37, 195–221, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9343-1, 2016.
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Muller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Florke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., and Wisser, D.: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3239–3244, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110, 2014.
Fan, H., He, D., and Wang, H.: Environmental consequences of damming the mainstream Lancang-Mekong River: A review, Earth Sci. Rev., 146, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.03.007, 2015.
Fekete, B. M., Wisser, D., Kroeze, C., Mayorga, E., Bouwman, L., Wollheim, W. M., and Vörösmarty, C.: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario drivers (1970–2050): Climate and hydrological alterations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB0A12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003593, 2010.
Finger, D., Heinrich, G., Gobiet, A., and Bauder, A.: Projections of future water resources and their uncertainty in a glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps and the subsequent effects on hydropower production during the 21st century, Water Resour. Res., 48, W02521, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010733, 2012.
Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A. D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015.
Gaudard, L., Gilli, M., and Romerio, F.: Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 5143–5156, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0458-1, 2013.
Gaudard, L., Romerio, F., Dalla Valle, F., Gorret, R., Maran, S., Ravazzani, G., Stoffel, M., and Volonterio, M.: Climate change impacts on hydropower in the Swiss and Italian Alps, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1211–1221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.012, 2014.
General Office of the State Council (GOSC): Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014–2020), available at: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm (last access: 10 January 2016), 2014. (in Chinese)
Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W.: Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1129–1145, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7727, 2011.
Hagemann, S. and Gates, L. D.: Improving a subgrid runoff parameterization scheme for climate models by the use of high resolution data derived from satellite observations, Clim. Dynam., 21, 349–359, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0349-x, 2003.
Hamlet, A., Lee, S.-Y., Mickelson, K. B., and Elsner, M.: Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, Clim. Change, 102, 103–128, 10.1007/s10584-010-9857-y, 2010.
Hamududu, B. and Killingtveit, A.: Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower, Energies, 5, 305–322, https://doi.org/10.3390/en5020305, 2012.
Han, S., Tian, F., and Hu, H.: Positive or negative correlation between actual and potential evaporation? Evaluating using a nonlinear complementary relationship model, Water Resour. Res., 50, 1322–1336, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014151, 2014.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models, J. Hydrol., 327, 22–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.011, 2006.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1007–1025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008, 2008.
Hejazi, M., Edmonds, J., Clarke, L., Kyle, P., Davies, E., Chaturvedi, V., Wise, M., Patel, P., Eom, J., Calvin, K., Moss, R., and Kim, S.: Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 81, 205–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.05.006, 2014.
Hejazi, M. I., Voisin, N., Liu, L., Bramer, L. M., Fortin, D. C., Hathaway, J. E., Huang, M., Kyle, P., Leung, L. R., Li, H.-Y., Liu, Y., Patel, P. L., Pulsipher, T. C., Rice, J. S., Tesfa, T. K., Vernon, C. R., and Zhou, Y.: 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 112, 10635–10640, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421675112, 2015.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013.
Hu, Y. and Cheng, H.: The urgency of assessing the greenhouse gas budgets of hydroelectric reservoirs in China, Nature Clim. Change, 3, 708–712, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1831, 2013.
Huang, H. and Yan, Z.: Present situation and future prospect of hydropower in China, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 13, 1652–1656, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.08.013, 2009.
International Energy Agency (IEA): World Energy Investment Outlook: Special Report, available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEIO2014.pdf (last access: 16 January 2016), 2014.
ISI-MIP: Hydropower potential data, available at: https://www.isimip.org, last access: 19 August 2016.
Jamali, S., Abrishamchi, A., and Madani, K.: Climate Change and Hydropower Planning in the Middle East: Implications for Iran's Karkheh Hydropower Systems, J. Energ. Eng.-ASCE, 139, 153–160, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EY.1943-7897.0000115, 2013.
Kao, S.-C., Sale, M. J., Ashfaq, M., Uria Martinez, R., Kaiser, D. P., Wei, Y., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants, Energy, 80, 239–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066, 2015.
Kaygusuz, K.: Hydropower and the World's Energy Future, Energ. Source., 26, 215–224, https://doi.org/10.1080/00908310490256572, 2004.
Kendy, E., Wang, J., Molden, D. J., Zheng, C., Liu, C., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Can urbanization solve inter-sector water conflicts? Insight from a case study in Hebei Province, North China Plain, Water Policy, 9, 75–93, 2007.
Knutti, R. and Sedlacek, J.: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nature Clim. Change, 3, 369–373, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716, 2013.
Lehner, B., Czisch, G., and Vassolo, S.: The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis, Energ. Policy, 33, 839–855, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.018, 2005.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., Nilsson, C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.: High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502, https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011.
Leng, G. and Tang, Q.: Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0182.1, 2014.
Leng, G., Tang, Q., Huang, M., Hong, Y., and Ruby, L.: Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China, Science China Earth Sciences, 58, 739–754, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-4987-0, 2015.
Li, J. and Shi, L.: Brief Description of Hydropower Resources in China, Water Power, 32, 3–7, 2006. (in Chinese)
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14415–14428, https://doi.org/10.1029/94jd00483, 1994.
Liu, J., Zuo, J., Sun, Z., Zillante, G., and Chen, X.: Sustainability in hydropower development – A case study, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 19, 230–237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.036, 2013.
Liu, J., Zhao, D., Gerbens-Leenes, P. W., and Guan, D.: China's rising hydropower demand challenges water sector, Scientific Reports, 5, 11446, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep11446, 2015.
Liu, W., Lund, H., Mathiesen, B. V., and Zhang, X.: Potential of renewable energy systems in China, Appl. Energy, 88, 518–525, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.07.014, 2011.
Liu, X., Zhang, X.-J., Tang, Q., and Zhang, X.-Z.: Effects of surface wind speed decline on modeled hydrological conditions in China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2803–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014, 2014.
Liu, Z.: Electric Power and Energy in China, Wiley, Singapore, 2013.
Lu, Y.: Hydropower and sustainable development in China, in: Symposium on Hydropower and Sustainable Development, 27–19 October 2004, Beijing, China, 2004.
Ma, H., Yang, D., Tan, S. K., Gao, B., and Hu, Q.: Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. J. Hydrol., 389, 317–324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010, 2010.
Madani, K. and Lund, J.: Estimated impacts of climate warming on California's high-elevation hydropower, Clim. Change, 102, 521–538, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9750-8, 2010.
Majone, B., Villa, F., Deidda, R., and Bellin, A.: Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region, Sci. Total Environ., 543, 965–980, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.009, 2016.
Maran, S., Volonterio, M., and Gaudard, L.: Climate change impacts on hydropower in an alpine catchment, Environ. Sci. Policy, 43, 15–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.12.001, 2014.
Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., and Leconte, R.: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower, Water Resour. Manag., 23, 2965–2986, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9418-1, 2009.
Müller Schmied, H., Eisner, S., Franz, D., Wattenbach, M., Portmann, F. T., Flörke, M., and Döll, P.: Sensitivity of simulated global-scale freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure, human water use and calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Gordon, B., Flanner, M. G., Kluzek, E., Peter, J., Levis, S., Swenson, S. C., Thornton, E., and Feddema, J.: Technical description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4781STR, 257, available at: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.0/clm/CLM4_Tech_Note.pdf (last access: 10 January 2016), 2010.
Pereira-Cardenal, S., Madsen, H., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Riegels, N., Jensen, R., Mo, B., Wangensteen, I., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model, Clim. Change, 126, 351–364, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1221-1, 2014.
Pérez-Díaz, J. I. and Wilhelmi, J. R.: Assessment of the economic impact of environmental constraints on short-term hydropower plant operation, Energ. Policy, 38, 7960–7970, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.020, 2010.
Piontek, F., Muller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Colon Gonzalez, F. D. J., Florke, M., Folberth, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gosling, S. N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M. R., Masaki, Y., Mengel, M., Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z. D., Tompkins, A. M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3233–3238, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222471110, 2014.
Pokhrel, Y. N., Oki, T., and Kanae, S.: A Grid Based Assessment of Global Theoretical Hydropower Potential, Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, 52, 7–12, 2008.
Pokhrel, Y. N., Koirala, S., Yeh, P. J. F., Hanasaki, N., Longuevergne, L., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with the representation of human impacts, Water Resour. Res., 51, 78–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015602, 2015.
Qiu, J.: China drought highlights future climate threats, Nature News, 465, 142–143, 2010.
Ramachandra, T. V. and Shruthi, B. V.: Spatial mapping of renewable energy potential, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 11, 1460–1480, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2005.12.002, 2007.
Resch, G., Held, A., Faber, T., Panzer, C., Toro, F., and Haas, R.: Potentials and prospects for renewable energies at global scale, Energ. Policy, 36, 4048–4056, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.029, 2008.
Schaefli, B., Hingray, B., and Musy, A.: Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1191–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1191-2007, 2007.
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Colon-Gonzalez, F. J., Gosling, S. N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., and Kabat, P.: Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3245–3250, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110, 2014.
Stickler, C. M., Coe, M. T., Costa, M. H., Nepstad, D. C., McGrath, D. G., Dias, L. C. P., Rodrigues, H. O., and Soares-Filho, B. S.: Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, 9601–9606, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1215331110, 2013.
Sun, Y., Tian, F., Yang, L., and Hu, H.: Exploring the spatial variability of contributions from climate variation and change in catchment properties to streamflow decrease in a mesoscale basin by three different methods, J. Hydrol., 508, 170–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.004, 2014.
Takata, K., Emori, S., and Watanabe, T.: Development of the minimal advanced treatments of surface interaction and runoff, Global Planet. Change, 38, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00030-4, 2003.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., and Kanae, S.: A distributed biosphere hydrological model (DBHM) for large river basin, Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 50, 37–42, 2006.
Tang, Q., Hu, H., Oki, T., and Tian, F.: Water balance within intensively cultivated alluvial plain in an arid environment, Water Resour. Manag., 21, 1703–1715, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9121-4, 2007a.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., and Hu, H.: The influence of precipitation variability and partial irrigation within grid cells on a hydrological simulation, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 499–512, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm589.1, 2007b.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., and Hu, H.: Hydrological Cycles Change in the Yellow River Basin during the Last Half of the Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 21, 1790–1806, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1854.1, 2008.
Tang, Q., Huang, Z., Liu, X., Han, S., Leng, G., Zhang, X., and Mu, M.: Impacts of Human Water Use on the Large-scale Terrestrial Water Cycle, Advances in Earth Science, 30, 1091–1099, 2015. (in Chinese)
Tang, Y., Tang, Q., Tian, F., Zhang, Z., and Liu, G.: Responses of natural runoff to recent climatic variations in the Yellow River basin, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4471–4480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4471-2013, 2013.
van Beek, L. P. H., Wada, Y., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009791, 2011.
van Vliet, M. T. H., Wiberg, D., Leduc, S., and Riahi, K.: Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 375–380, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2903, 2016.
Vicuna, S., Leonardson, R., Hanemann, M. W., Dale, L. L., and Dracup, J. A.: Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California's Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American River, Clim. Change, 87, 123–137, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9365-x, 2008.
Vicuña, S., Dracup, J., and Dale, L.: Climate change impacts on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California, Clim. Change, 109, 151–169, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0301-8, 2011.
Voisin, N., Li, H., Ward, D., Huang, M., Wigmosta, M., and Leung, L. R.: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013.
Wang, P., Dong, S., and Lassoie, J. P.: The Large Dam Dilemma: An Exploration of the Impacts of Hydro Projects on People and the Environment in China, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2013.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014.
Wasko, C., Sharma, A., and Westra, S.: Reduced spatial extent of extreme storms at higher temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 4026–4032, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068509, 2016.
Wisser, D., Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., and Schumann, A. H.: Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1-2010, 2010.
World Energy Council (WEC): World energy resources 2013 survey, London, 468, available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Complete_WER_2013_Survey.pdf (last access: 16 January 2016), 2013.
Wu, Y. and Chen, J.: An Operation-Based Scheme for a Multiyear and Multipurpose Reservoir to Enhance Macroscale Hydrologic Models, J. Hydrometeor, 13, 270–283, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05028.1, 2011.
Yan, Z., Peng, C., Yuan, D., and Qian, G.: General Description of the Re-check Work of the National Hydropower Resources Survey, Water Power, 32, 8–11, 2006. (in Chinese)
Zhang, Q.: The South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Strategy1, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 45, 1238–1247, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00357.x, 2009.
Zhou, Y., Hejazi, M., Smith, S., Edmonds, J., Li, H., Clarke, L., Calvin, K., and Thomson, A.: A comprehensive view of global potential for hydro-generated electricity, Energy Environ. Sci., 8, 2622–2633, https://doi.org/10.1039/C5EE00888C, 2015.
Short summary
Impacts of climate change on hydropower potential of China are investigated using projections from multiple general circulation models and global hydrological models. Results show that the projected total hydropower potential of China generally increases (e.g., in southwest China) while the maximum production of current hydropower stations may decrease (e.g., in Sichuan and Hubei provinces) in the future. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in hydropower planning in China.
Impacts of climate change on hydropower potential of China are investigated using projections...
