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An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 447–461, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-447-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the anthropocene...
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 447–461, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-447-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 05 Feb 2014
Research article | 05 Feb 2014
Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis
M. Kummu et al.
Related authors
Marko Kallio, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, and Kirsi Virrantaus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-276, 2020
Preprint under review for GMD
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Different runoff and streamflow products are freely available, but may come with unsuitable spatial units, and starting a new modelling exercise may require considerable resources. Hydrostreamer improves the usability of existing runoff products allowing runoff and streamflow estimates at the desired spatial units with minimal data requirements and intuitive workflow. Case study shows that hydrostreamer performs well compared to benchmark products and observation data.
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020
Short summary
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In this study, we analyse the impacts of three major climate oscillations on global crop production. Our results show that maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields are influenced by climate oscillations to a wide extent and in several important crop-producing regions. We observe larger impacts if crops are rainfed or fully fertilized, while irrigation tends to mitigate the impacts. These results can potentially help to increase the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.
Hafsa Ahmed Munia, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Naho Mirumachi, Yoshihide Wada, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
An analytical framework is developed drawing on ideas of regime shifts from resilience literature to understand the transition between cases where water scarcity is or is not experienced depending on whether water from upstream is or is not available. The analysis shows 386 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible stress and 306 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. This provides insights into implications for negotiations between sub-basins.
Dung Duc Tran, Gerardo van Halsema, Petra J. G. J. Hellegers, Long Phi Hoang, Tho Quang Tran, Matti Kummu, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1875–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled hydrological changes under impacts of large-scale dike constructions for intensive rice production in the floodplain of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Four scenarios show a significant increase in peak water levels in the upstream rivers, but very few water level changes are found downstream. Water balance calculations show where the floodwater goes under four dike construction scenarios. Its impacts on the tidal areas need to be clarified in the future with a 3-D hydraulic model.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Long Phi Hoang, Hannu Lauri, Matti Kummu, Jorma Koponen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Pavel Kabat, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3027–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, 2016
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We modelled hydrological changes under climate change in the Mekong River, focusing on extreme events. The scenario ensemble shows an intensification of the hydrological cycle under climate change. Annual river flow increases between 5 and 16 % depending on locations. Extreme high flows increase substantially in both magnitude and frequency, posing threats to flood safety in the basin. Extreme low-flow events are projected to reduce as a result of increased river flow during the dry season.
J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015
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We present a process-based simulation of global irrigation systems for the world’s major crop types. This study advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems, a prerequisite for refined simulation of crop yields under climate change. We reveal for many river basins the potential for sizeable water savings and related increases in water productivity through irrigation improvements.
S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015
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We developed the historical irrigation data set (HID) depicting the spatio-temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5arcmin resolution.
The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on two historical maps for 1910 and 1960.
Global AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge decreased from 1900 to 1950.
M. E. Arias, T. Piman, H. Lauri, T. A. Cochrane, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5303–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, 2014
Short summary
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Hydrological modeling and assessment tools were used to provide evidence of the expected hydrological alterations that hydropower development in the lower Mekong tributaries could bring to the Tonle Sap. The most significant alterations are in terms of water levels during the dry season and rates of water level rise/drop which are crucial for tree seed germination and fish migrations, and therefore major ecological disruptions are likely to follow.
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
T. A. Räsänen, C. Lehr, I. Mellin, P. J. Ward, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2069–2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, 2013
M. Meybeck, M. Kummu, and H. H. Dürr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, 2013
H. Lauri, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, T. A. Räsänen, M. Keskinen, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4603–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, 2012
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-468, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
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Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure and no tillage practices.
Marko Kallio, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, and Kirsi Virrantaus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-276, 2020
Preprint under review for GMD
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Different runoff and streamflow products are freely available, but may come with unsuitable spatial units, and starting a new modelling exercise may require considerable resources. Hydrostreamer improves the usability of existing runoff products allowing runoff and streamflow estimates at the desired spatial units with minimal data requirements and intuitive workflow. Case study shows that hydrostreamer performs well compared to benchmark products and observation data.
Femke Lutz, Stephen Del Grosso, Stephen Ogle, Stephen Williams, Sara Minoli, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020
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Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model and results from meta-analyses on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. By comparing model results with observational data of four experimental sites and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations, we show that advancing information on agricultural management, as well as the representation of soil moisture dynamics, improves LPJmL5.0-tillage and the estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-338, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large scale cultivation of fast growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is globally needed, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020
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In this study, we analyse the impacts of three major climate oscillations on global crop production. Our results show that maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields are influenced by climate oscillations to a wide extent and in several important crop-producing regions. We observe larger impacts if crops are rainfed or fully fertilized, while irrigation tends to mitigate the impacts. These results can potentially help to increase the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 823–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-823-2019, 2019
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This study describes the generation of a classification and the global spatially explicit mapping of six crop-specific tillage systems for around the year 2005. Tillage practices differ by the kind of equipment used, soil surface and depth affected, timing, and their purpose within the cropping systems. The identified tillage systems including a downscale algorithm of national Conservation Agriculture area values were allocated to crop-specific cropland areas with a resolution of 5 arcmin.
Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, 2019
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Hafsa Ahmed Munia, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Naho Mirumachi, Yoshihide Wada, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
An analytical framework is developed drawing on ideas of regime shifts from resilience literature to understand the transition between cases where water scarcity is or is not experienced depending on whether water from upstream is or is not available. The analysis shows 386 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible stress and 306 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. This provides insights into implications for negotiations between sub-basins.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Dung Duc Tran, Gerardo van Halsema, Petra J. G. J. Hellegers, Long Phi Hoang, Tho Quang Tran, Matti Kummu, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1875–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled hydrological changes under impacts of large-scale dike constructions for intensive rice production in the floodplain of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Four scenarios show a significant increase in peak water levels in the upstream rivers, but very few water level changes are found downstream. Water balance calculations show where the floodwater goes under four dike construction scenarios. Its impacts on the tidal areas need to be clarified in the future with a 3-D hydraulic model.
Susanne Rolinski, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, Isabelle Weindl, Anne Biewald, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alberte Bondeau, Eltje R. Boons-Prins, Alexander F. Bouwman, Peter A. Leffelaar, Johnny A. te Roller, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One-third of the global land area is covered with grasslands which are grazed by or mowed for livestock feed. These areas contribute significantly to the carbon capture from the atmosphere when managed sensibly. To assess the effect of this management, we included different options of grazing and mowing into the global model LPJmL 3.6. We found in polar regions even low grazing pressure leads to soil carbon loss whereas in temperate regions up to 1.4 livestock units per hectare can be sustained.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Long Phi Hoang, Hannu Lauri, Matti Kummu, Jorma Koponen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Pavel Kabat, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3027–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled hydrological changes under climate change in the Mekong River, focusing on extreme events. The scenario ensemble shows an intensification of the hydrological cycle under climate change. Annual river flow increases between 5 and 16 % depending on locations. Extreme high flows increase substantially in both magnitude and frequency, posing threats to flood safety in the basin. Extreme low-flow events are projected to reduce as a result of increased river flow during the dry season.
W. Greuell, J. C. M. Andersson, C. Donnelly, L. Feyen, D. Gerten, F. Ludwig, G. Pisacane, P. Roudier, and S. Schaphoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10289-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10289-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
The main aims of this paper are the evaluation of five large-scale hydrological models across Europe and the assessment of the suitability of the models for making projections under climate change. While we found large inter-model differences in biases, the skill to simulate interannual variability in discharge did not differ much between the models. Assuming that the skill of a model to simulate interannual variability provides a measure for the model’s ability to make projections under climate
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a process-based simulation of global irrigation systems for the world’s major crop types. This study advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems, a prerequisite for refined simulation of crop yields under climate change. We reveal for many river basins the potential for sizeable water savings and related increases in water productivity through irrigation improvements.
S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the historical irrigation data set (HID) depicting the spatio-temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5arcmin resolution.
The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on two historical maps for 1910 and 1960.
Global AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge decreased from 1900 to 1950.
J. Elliott, C. Müller, D. Deryng, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, K. J. Boote, M. Büchner, I. Foster, M. Glotter, J. Heinke, T. Iizumi, R. C. Izaurralde, N. D. Mueller, D. K. Ray, C. Rosenzweig, A. C. Ruane, and J. Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present and describe the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) project, an ongoing international effort to 1) validate global models of crop productivity, 2) improve models through detailed analysis of processes, and 3) assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. We present analysis of data inputs for the project, detailed protocols for conducting and evaluating simulation outputs, and example results.
M. E. Arias, T. Piman, H. Lauri, T. A. Cochrane, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5303–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling and assessment tools were used to provide evidence of the expected hydrological alterations that hydropower development in the lower Mekong tributaries could bring to the Tonle Sap. The most significant alterations are in terms of water levels during the dry season and rates of water level rise/drop which are crucial for tree seed germination and fish migrations, and therefore major ecological disruptions are likely to follow.
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
V. Huber, H. J. Schellnhuber, N. W. Arnell, K. Frieler, A. D. Friend, D. Gerten, I. Haddeland, P. Kabat, H. Lotze-Campen, W. Lucht, M. Parry, F. Piontek, C. Rosenzweig, J. Schewe, and L. Warszawski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 399–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014, 2014
H. Hoff, P. Döll, M. Fader, D. Gerten, S. Hauser, and S. Siebert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, 2014
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
J. Heinke, S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Müller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen, and W. Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, 2013
D. Gerten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3841–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3841-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3841-2013, 2013
S. Ostberg, W. Lucht, S. Schaphoff, and D. Gerten
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 347–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, 2013
C. Zang, J. Liu, L. Jiang, and D. Gerten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-9477-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-9477-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
T. A. Räsänen, C. Lehr, I. Mellin, P. J. Ward, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2069–2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
M. Meybeck, M. Kummu, and H. H. Dürr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, 2013
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, D. Gerten, and S. Schaphoff
Biogeosciences, 10, 339–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-339-2013, 2013
H. Lauri, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, T. A. Räsänen, M. Keskinen, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4603–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River basin under climate change
Evaluation of 18 satellite- and model-based soil moisture products using in situ measurements from 826 sensors
The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach
Assessing global water mass transfers from continents to oceans over the period 1948–2016
Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model
The influence of assimilating leaf area index in a land surface model on global water fluxes and storages
Comparison of generalized non-data-driven lake and reservoir routing models for global-scale hydrologic forecasting of reservoir outflow at diurnal time steps
The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño
HESS Opinions: Beyond the long-term water balance: evolving Budyko's supply–demand framework for the Anthropocene towards a global synthesis of land-surface fluxes under natural and human-altered watersheds
Global assessment of how averaging over spatial heterogeneity in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration affects modeled evapotranspiration rates
Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling
Quantification of drainable water storage volumes on landmasses and in river networks based on GRACE and river runoff using a cascaded storage approach – first application on the Amazon
Global catchment modelling using World-Wide HYPE (WWH), open data, and stepwise parameter estimation
Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates
Spatiotemporal assimilation–interpolation of discharge records through inverse streamflow routing
Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets
Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration and streamflow in Europe
Multi-decadal hydrologic change and variability in the Amazon River basin: understanding terrestrial water storage variations and drought characteristics
Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China
Improving soil moisture and runoff simulations at 3 km over Europe using land surface data assimilation
Toward continental hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling in South America
Global re-analysis datasets to improve hydrological assessment and snow water equivalent estimation in a sub-Arctic watershed
The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models
Joint assimilation of soil moisture retrieved from multiple passive microwave frequencies increases robustness of soil moisture state estimation
Remote land use impacts on river flows through atmospheric teleconnections
Understanding terrestrial water storage variations in northern latitudes across scales
Assimilation of river discharge in a land surface model to improve estimates of the continental water cycles
Harnessing big data to rethink land heterogeneity in Earth system models
Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions – a global meta-study
Near-real-time adjusted reanalysis forcing data for hydrology
Deduction of reservoir operating rules for application in global hydrological models
A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans
A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984–2010
Comparing soil moisture anomalies from multiple independent sources over different regions across the globe
Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use
Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods
The effect of GCM biases on global runoff simulations of a land surface model
Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales
Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions
Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models
Understanding hydrologic variability across Europe through catchment classification
Hydrological threats to riparian wetlands of international importance – a global quantitative and qualitative analysis
Reviving the “Ganges Water Machine”: where and how much?
Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: an artificial neural network approach
Assessing the impact of hydrodynamics on large-scale flood wave propagation – a case study for the Amazon Basin
Analysis of the characteristics of the global virtual water trade network using degree and eigenvector centrality, with a focus on food and feed crops
A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models
Synchrony of trend shifts in Sahel boreal summer rainfall and global oceanic evaporation, 1950–2012
Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China
Laura E. Queen, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, 2021
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Using a large ensemble of simulated flows throughout the northwestern USA, we compare daily flood statistics in the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–1999) periods and find that nearly all locations will experience an increase in flood magnitudes. The flood season expands significantly in many currently snow-dominant rivers, moving from only spring to both winter and spring. These results, properly extended, may help inform flood risk management and negotiations of the Columbia River Treaty.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Yared Abayneh Abebe, Amineh Ghorbani, Igor Nikolic, Natasa Manojlovic, Angelika Gruhn, and Zoran Vojinovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020
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The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for Hamburg, Germany. It explores residents’ adaptation behaviour in relation to flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. We found that unique trajectories of adaptation behaviour emerge from different flood event series. Providing subsidies improves adaptation behaviour in the long run. The coupled modelling technique allows the role of individual measures in flood risk management to be examined.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
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We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Salma Tafasca, Agnès Ducharne, and Christian Valentin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3753–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, 2020
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In land surface models (LSMs), soil properties are inferred from soil texture. In this study, we use different input global soil texture maps from the literature to investigate the impact of soil texture on the simulated water budget in an LSM. The medium loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. However, the different soil texture maps result in similar water budgets because of their inherent similarities, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution.
Xinxuan Zhang, Viviana Maggioni, Azbina Rahman, Paul Houser, Yuan Xue, Timothy Sauer, Sujay Kumar, and David Mocko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3775–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, 2020
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This study assesses the extent to which a land surface model can be optimized via the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) observations at the global scale. The model performance is evaluated by the model-estimated LAI and five water flux/storage variables. Results show the LAI assimilation reduces errors in the model-estimated LAI. The LAI assimilation also improves the five water variables under wet conditions, but some of the model-estimated variables tend to be worse under dry conditions.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mark D. Wahl, and Michael L. Follum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2711–2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, 2020
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Global-scale hydrologic forecasts should account for attenuation through lakes and reservoirs. There is no consensus on the best approach to estimating this attenuation in large-spatial-scale hydrologic forecasts. This article investigates two existing parsimonious approaches to estimating reservoir outflows. We test each method at 60 reservoirs in the United States. We find that a method first developed in 2003 can provide a reasonable approximation of diurnal reservoir outflows.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
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We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
A. Sankarasubramanian, Dingbao Wang, Stacey Archfield, Meredith Reitz, Richard M. Vogel, Amirhossein Mazrooei, and Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1975-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1975-2020, 2020
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The Budyko framework which relies on the supply and demand concept could be effectively adapted and extended to quantify the role of drivers – both changing climate and local human disturbances – in altering the land-surface response. This framework is extended with a few illustrative examples for quantifying the variability in land-surface fluxes for natural and human-altered watersheds. Potential for using observed and remotely sensed datasets in capturing this variability is also discussed.
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Ying Fan, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1927–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1927-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1927-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) rates and properties that regulate them are spatially heterogeneous. Averaging over spatial heterogeneity in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the main drivers of ET may lead to biased estimates of energy and water fluxes from the land to the atmosphere. We show that this bias is largest in mountainous terrains, in regions with temperate climates and dry summers, and in landscapes where spatial variations in P and PET are inversely correlated.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Johannes Riegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1447–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1447-2020, 2020
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The combined use of GRACE mass anomalies and observed river discharge for the first time allows us to quantify the water storage volumes drainable by gravity on global scales. Modelling of catchment and river network storages in a cascade with different dynamics reveals the time lag between total mass and runoff is caused by a non-zero river network storage. This allows catchment and river network storage volumes to be distinguished and is thus of great importance for water resources management.
Berit Arheimer, Rafael Pimentel, Kristina Isberg, Louise Crochemore, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Abdulghani Hasan, and Luis Pineda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-2020, 2020
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How far can we reach in predicting river flow globally, using integrated catchment modelling and open global data? For the first time, a catchment model was applied world-wide, covering the entire globe with a relatively high resolution. The results show that stepwise calibration provided better performance than traditional modelling of the globe. The study highlights that open data and models are crucial to advance hydrological sciences by sharing knowledge and enabling transparent evaluation.
Lei Gu, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Hui-Min Wang, Shenglian Guo, Liping Zhang, and Jong-Suk Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, 2020
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Focusing on the multifaceted nature of droughts, this study quantifies the change in global drought risks for 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming trajectories by a multi-model ensemble under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Socioeconomic exposures are investigated by incorporating the dynamic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) into the drought impact assessment. The results show that even the ambitious 1.5 °C warming level can cause substantial increases on the global scale.
Colby K. Fisher, Ming Pan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 293–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-293-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-293-2020, 2020
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Poorly monitored river flows in many regions of the world have been hindering our ability to accurately estimate global water usage. In this paper we present a method to derive continuous records of streamflow from a set of in situ gauges. Applying this method to the Ohio River basin, we found that we could reliably generate estimates of streamflow throughout the basin using only a small set of streamflow gauges, which can be useful for global river basins where we do not have good observations.
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Guy Shalev, Günter Klambauer, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, 2019
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A new approach for regional rainfall–runoff modeling using long short-term memory (LSTM)-based models is presented and benchmarked against a range of well-known hydrological models. The approach significantly outperforms regionally calibrated hydrological models but also basin-wise calibrated models. Furthermore, we propose an adaption of the LSTM that allows us to extract the learned catchment understanding of the model and show that it matches our hydrology expert knowledge.
Adriaan J. Teuling, Emile A. G. de Badts, Femke A. Jansen, Richard Fuchs, Joost Buitink, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, and Shannon M. Sterling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019
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Over the past decades, changes in land use and climate over Europe have impacted the average flow of water flowing through rivers and reservoirs (the so-called
water yield). We quantify these changes using a simple but widely tested modelling approach constrained by observations of lysimeters across Europe. Results show that the contribution of land use to changes in water yield are of the same order as changes in climate, showing that impacts of land use changes cannot be neglected.
Suyog Chaudhari, Yadu Pokhrel, Emilio Moran, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2841-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2841-2019, 2019
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Comprehensive characterization of extreme drought events in the Amazon is provided with respect to their cause, type, spatial extent, and impact on different water stores. Basin-averaged trends in water storage indicate that the Amazon is getting wetter; however its southern and southeastern portions are getting drier. Water deficit is found to be 3-fold higher than the total water supplied during some drought years. Water deficit due to low precipitation events is absorbed by the groundwater.
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
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Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Bibi S. Naz, Wolfgang Kurtz, Carsten Montzka, Wendy Sharples, Klaus Goergen, Jessica Keune, Huilin Gao, Anne Springer, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 277–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the value of assimilating coarse-resolution remotely sensed soil moisture data into high-resolution land surface models for improving soil moisture and runoff modeling. The soil moisture estimates in this study, with complete spatio-temporal coverage and improved spatial resolution from the assimilation, offer a new reanalysis product for the monitoring of surface soil water content and other hydrological fluxes at 3 km resolution over Europe.
Vinícius A. Siqueira, Rodrigo C. D. Paiva, Ayan S. Fleischmann, Fernando M. Fan, Anderson L. Ruhoff, Paulo R. M. Pontes, Adrien Paris, Stéphane Calmant, and Walter Collischonn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4815–4842, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4815-2018, 2018
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Providing reliable estimates of water fluxes at the continental scale is challenging. We extended a regional hydrological model to the entirety of South America and assessed its performance using multiple observations. After a comparison with global models, we show the extent to which estimates of daily river discharge can be improved, even by using global forcing data. Issues of global-/continental-scale modeling and future directions for simulating discharge in this continent are discussed.
David R. Casson, Micha Werner, Albrecht Weerts, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4685–4697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4685-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4685-2018, 2018
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In high-latitude (> 60° N) watersheds, measuring the snowpack and predicting of snowmelt runoff are uncertain due to the lack of data and complex physical processes. This provides challenges for hydrological assessment and operational water management. Global re-analysis datasets have great potential to aid in snowpack representation and snowmelt prediction when combined with a distributed hydrological model, though they still have clear limitations in remote boreal forest and tundra environments.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4649–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, 2018
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Drought is a natural hazard that has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts around the globe. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from precipitation droughts to soil moisture and streamflow droughts. Results show that propagation timescales are strongly related to climate type, with fast responses in tropical regions and slow responses in arid regions. Insight into the timescales of drought propagation globally may help improve seasonal drought forecasting.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Hans J. van der Woerd, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Richard A. M. de Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4605–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, 2018
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We assimilated three satellite soil moisture retrievals based on different microwave frequencies into a hydrological model. Two sets of experiments were performed, first assimilating the retrievals individually and then assimilating each set of two retrievals jointly. Overall, assimilation improved agreement between model and field-measured soil moisture. Joint assimilation resulted in model performance similar to or better than assimilating either retrieval individually.
Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Ingo Fetzer, Patrick W. Keys, Ruud J. van der Ent, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Line J. Gordon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4311–4328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, 2018
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Winds carry air moisture from one place to another. Thus, land-use change that alters air moisture content can also modify downwind rainfall and distant river flows. This aspect has rarely been taken into account in studies of river flow changes. We show here that remote land-use change effect on rainfall can exceed that of local, and that foreign nation influence on river flows is much more prevalent than previously thought. This has important implications for both land and water governance.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Annette Eicker, Manfred Fink, Christoph Niemann, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4061–4082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4061-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4061-2018, 2018
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In this study, we adjust a simple hydrological model to several observational datasets, including satellite observations of the land's total water storage. We apply the model to northern latitudes and find that the dominating factor of changes in the total water storage depends on both the spatial and temporal scale of analysis. While snow dominates seasonal variations, liquid water determines year-to-year variations, yet with increasing contribution of snow when averaging over larger regions.
Fuxing Wang, Jan Polcher, Philippe Peylin, and Vladislav Bastrikov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3863–3882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3863-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3863-2018, 2018
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This work improves river discharge estimation by taking advantages of observation and model simulations. The new estimation takes into account both gauged and un-gauged rivers, and it compensates model systematic errors and missing processes (e.g., human water usage). This improved estimation is important not only for water resources management and ecosystem health over continent but also for ocean dynamics and salinity.
Nathaniel W. Chaney, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Paul P. G. Gauthier, and Benjamin N. Sulman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3311-2018, 2018
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The petabytes of existing global environmental data provide an invaluable asset to improve the characterization of land heterogeneity in Earth system models. This study introduces a clustering algorithm that summarizes a domain's heterogeneity through spatially interconnected clusters. A series of land model simulations in central California using this approach illustrate the critical role that multi-scale heterogeneity can have on the macroscale water, energy, and carbon cycles.
Chinchu Mohan, Andrew W. Western, Yongping Wei, and Margarita Saft
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2689–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018, 2018
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To ensure a sustainable supply of groundwater, scientific information about what is going into the system as recharge and what is taken out of the system via pumping is essential. This study identified the most influential factors in groundwater recharge and developed an empirical global recharge model. The meteorological and vegetation factors were the most important factors, and the long-term global average recharge was 134 mm per year. This model will aid in groundwater policy-making.
Peter Berg, Chantal Donnelly, and David Gustafsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 989–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-989-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-989-2018, 2018
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A new product (Global Forcing Data, GFD) that provides bias-adjusted meteorological forcing data for impact models, such as hydrological models, is presented. The main novelty with the product is the near-real time updating of the data which allows more up-to-date impact modeling. This is performed by combining climatological data sets with climate monitoring data sets. The potential in using the data to initialize hydrological forecasts is further investigated.
Hubertus M. Coerver, Martine M. Rutten, and Nick C. van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-831-2018, 2018
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Global hydrological models aim to model hydrological processes, like flows in a river, on a global scale, as opposed to traditional models which are regional. A big challenge in creating these models is the inclusion of impacts on the hydrological cycle caused by humans, for example by the operation of large (hydropower) dams. The presented study investigates a new way to include these impacts by dams into global hydrological models.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Yadu Pokhrel, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 789–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, 2018
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Six schemes were added to the H08 global hydrological model (GHM) to represent human water abstraction more accurately and ensure that all water fluxes and storage are traceable in each grid cell at a daily interval. The schemes of local reservoirs, aqueduct water transfer, and seawater desalination were incorporated into GHMs for the first time, to the best of our knowledge. H08 has become one of the most detailed GHMs for attributing water sources available to humanity.
Yu Zhang, Ming Pan, Justin Sheffield, Amanda L. Siemann, Colby K. Fisher, Miaoling Liang, Hylke E. Beck, Niko Wanders, Rosalyn F. MacCracken, Paul R. Houser, Tian Zhou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Rachel T. Pinker, Janice Bytheway, Christian D. Kummerow, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 241–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-241-2018, 2018
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A global data record for all four terrestrial water budget variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and total water storage change) at 0.5° resolution and monthly scale for the period of 1984–2010 is developed by optimally merging a series of remote sensing products, in situ measurements, land surface model outputs, and atmospheric reanalysis estimates and enforcing the mass balance of water. Initial validations show the data record is reliable for climate related analysis.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Jürgen V. Vogt, Bernard Bisselink, and Ad de Roo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6329–6343, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6329-2017, 2017
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Drought can affect large regions of the world, implying the need for a global monitoring tool. For the JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO,
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo/), 3 soil moisture anomaly datasets have been compared, in order to evaluate their consistency. The analysis performed on five macro-regions (North America, Europe, India, southern Africa and Australia) suggests the need to combine these different data sources in order to obtain robust assessments over a variety of conditions.
Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5603–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, 2017
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We investigate how changes in land cover, such as deforestation, affect river runoff and evaporation from the land surface. We use computer simulations to show that the impact of land cover changes is significant and, when globally averaged, it is as important as more direct human impacts through water use (such as irrigation). There is large spatial variability in the impact of land cover change, with the largest changes when tall vegetation (such as forests) is replaced by crop fields.
Cherry May R. Mateo, Dai Yamazaki, Hyungjun Kim, Adisorn Champathong, Jai Vaze, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5143–5163, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5143-2017, 2017
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Providing large-scale (regional or global) simulation of floods at fine spatial resolution is difficult due to computational constraints but is necessary to provide consistent estimates of hazards, especially in data-scarce regions. We assessed the capability of an advanced global-scale river model to simulate an extreme flood at fine resolution. We found that when multiple flow connections in rivers are represented, the model can provide reliable fine-resolution predictions of flood inundation.
Lamprini V. Papadimitriou, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Manolis G. Grillakis, and Ioannis K. Tsanis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4379–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4379-2017, 2017
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Bias correction of climate model outputs has become a standard procedure accompanying climate change impact studies. However, it introduces a new level of uncertainty in the modelling chain which remains relatively unexplored. In this work we present a new framework for the quantification and categorization of the effect of bias correction on global hydrological simulations and we derive information on the sensitivity and magnitude of the effect of GCM biases on runoff, at the global scale.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
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We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
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Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Naze Candogan Yossef, Rens van Beek, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel Winsemius, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4103–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a skill assessment of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World. For 20 large basins of the world, forecasts using the ESP procedure are compared to forecasts using actual S3 seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles by ECMWF. The results are discussed in the context of prevailing hydroclimatic conditions per basin. The study concludes that in general, the skill of ECMWF S3 forecasts is close to that of the ESP forecasts.
Hylke E. Beck, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Ad de Roo, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Rene Orth, and Jaap Schellekens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, 2017
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Runoff measurements for 966 catchments around the globe were used to assess the quality of the daily runoff estimates of 10 hydrological models run as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty.
Anna Kuentz, Berit Arheimer, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2863–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, 2017
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Our study aims to explore and understand the physical controls on spatial patterns of pan-European flow signatures by taking advantage of large open datasets. Using tools like correlation analysis, stepwise regressions and different types of catchment classifications, we explore the relationships between catchment descriptors and flow signatures across 35 215 catchments which cover a wide range of pan-European physiographic and anthropogenic characteristics.
Christof Schneider, Martina Flörke, Lucia De Stefano, and Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2799–2815, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2799-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2799-2017, 2017
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Riparian wetlands are disappearing worldwide due to altered river flow regimes. The WaterGAP3 modeling framework is used to compare modified to natural flow regimes at 93 Ramsar sites. Results indicate that water resource management seriously impairs inundation patterns at 29 % of the sites. New dam initiatives are likely to affect especially wetlands located in South America, Asia, and the Balkan Peninsula. Hotspots for climate change impacts could be eastern Europe and South America.
Lal Muthuwatta, Upali A. Amarasinghe, Aditya Sood, and Lagudu Surinaidu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2545–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2545-2017, 2017
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Agricultural production in the Ganges River basin is affected by the water shortage in the dry months, while the excess water during the rainy season causes floods in the downstream. Annual total surface runoff generated in the basin is about 298 ± 99 Bm3, and runoff in the monsoon months contributes up to 80 % of this total runoff. Comparison of sub-basin-wise surface runoff with the estimated unmet water demand indicated that capturing only a portion of the wet-season runoff would be sufficient.
Loise Wandera, Kaniska Mallick, Gerard Kiely, Olivier Roupsard, Matthias Peichl, and Vincenzo Magliulo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-197-2017, 2017
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Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration (ETi–ETd) is one of the central challenges in regional vegetation water-use mapping using polar orbiting satellites. Here we developed a robust ETi upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous global radiation (RSd/RSi). Using data from 126 FLUXNET tower sites, this study demonstrated the RSd/RSi ratio to be the most robust factor explaining ETd/ETi variability across variable sky conditions and multiple biomes.
Jannis M. Hoch, Arjen V. Haag, Arthur van Dam, Hessel C. Winsemius, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, 2017
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Modelling inundations is pivotal to assess current and future flood hazard, and to define sound measures and policies. Yet, many models focus on the hydrologic or hydrodynamic aspect of floods only. We combined both by spatially coupling a hydrologic with a hydrodynamic model. This way we are able to balance the weaknesses of each model with the strengths of the other. We found that model coupling can indeed strongly improve discharge simulation, and see big potential in our approach.
Sang-Hyun Lee, Rabi H. Mohtar, Jin-Yong Choi, and Seung-Hwan Yoo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4223–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4223-2016, 2016
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Virtual water trade (VWT) embedded in crop trade is an important component of water management. Vulnerable importers in VWT were classified through connectivity and volume of VWT using degree centrality of a VWT network. Influential traders on entire VWT were classified through eigenvector centrality of a VWT network.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Kaoru Kakinuma, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4143–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, 2016
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Although seawater desalination has been widely implemented and used as a key source of water in arid regions, it has been seldom included in global water resource assessments based on numerical simulations. We first developed a global model to estimate the areal extent and production of seawater desalination which was designed to be incorporated with global hydrological models. The model was applied to future periods under three distinct socioeconomic conditions.
Alima Diawara, Yoshihiro Tachibana, Kazuhiro Oshima, Hatsumi Nishikawa, and Yuta Ando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3789–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3789-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3789-2016, 2016
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The western African Sahel region has been one of the most important research areas for studying climatic variability due to its fragile climate conditions. Between 1950 and 2012, summer rainfall in the Sahel changed from a multi-decadal decreasing trend to an increasing trend (positive trend shift) in the mid-1980s. We found that this trend shift was synchronous with similar trend shifts in global oceanic evaporation and in land precipitation on all continents except the Americas.
Xingcai Liu, Qiuhong Tang, Nathalie Voisin, and Huijuan Cui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3343–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016, 2016
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Impacts of climate change on hydropower potential of China are investigated using projections from multiple general circulation models and global hydrological models. Results show that the projected total hydropower potential of China generally increases (e.g., in southwest China) while the maximum production of current hydropower stations may decrease (e.g., in Sichuan and Hubei provinces) in the future. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in hydropower planning in China.
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