Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the anthropocene (HESS/ESD inter-journal SI)(HESS/ESD inter-journal SI)
Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the anthropocene (HESS/ESD inter-journal SI)(HESS/ESD inter-journal SI)
Editor(s): M. Sivapalan, T. J. Troy, V. Srinivasan, A. Kleidon, D. Gerten, and A. Montanar Special issue jointly organized between Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Earth System Dynamics
There are currently two relatively disparate branches of hydrology, consisting of hydrology as earth science and hydrology as engineering. In the former, hydrology often looks at the land surface as a pristine system, unaffected by humans and governed by our understanding of the system’s physics. In the latter, humans are seen as an integral component of the system, yet these studies tend to be applied and narrowly focused on addressing a specific water problem. Given the extensive imprint of humans on the hydrological cycle in almost every part of the globe and the need for fundamental mechanistic understandings for prediction, these two approaches should move towards and learn from one another.

Hydrologic systems face significant changes, both from climate and humans, and to understand these changes we need tools that are based on the physical understanding of the natural system and incorporate the activities and feedbacks with human systems. Non-stationarity exists due to climate change as well as changes to the watershed structure (e.g. land use change, engineering works, etc.). The hydrology of the system does not exist in a black box, unaffected by other systems, and is interconnected with climatic, ecological, social, and earth surface changes. As such, there can also be feedbacks with society; human settlement patterns and economic activity are often dependent on freshwater availability, and humans alter the natural system to suit their needs.

In order to understand the coupled natural-human system, we need both process-based, universal hydrology laws for human landscapes that are not place-based and studies that focus on a holistic understanding of a particular system. What is critical is a fundamental understanding of human-hydrologic systems that builds upon both the earth science and engineering traditions in hydrology. Additionally, concepts from Earth system science can inform hydrology about the context, approaches to prediction as well as theoretical approaches to better understand and predict the hydrologic cycle and its human modifications within the setting of the whole Earth system.

This special issue will explore this research space, with papers that address both our fundamental understanding of these coupled systems as well as case studies that focus on place-based issues. It will serve as a common ground for researchers interested in addressing coupled natural-human hydrology questions and problems to share their research. More broadly, it is our hope that this special issue will serve as a catalyst for dialog in the hydrologic and the broader earth sciences community about how to address the water problems facing different regions while viewing the hydrologic system as a system that is governed by universal laws, modified by humans, constantly in a state of change, and intertwined with many other systems, particularly the earth system at large.

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18 Jan 2016
The Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen: a hypothesis-driven observatory
G. Blöschl, A. P. Blaschke, M. Broer, C. Bucher, G. Carr, X. Chen, A. Eder, M. Exner-Kittridge, A. Farnleitner, A. Flores-Orozco, P. Haas, P. Hogan, A. Kazemi Amiri, M. Oismüller, J. Parajka, R. Silasari, P. Stadler, P. Strauss, M. Vreugdenhil, W. Wagner, and M. Zessner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 227–255,,, 2016
Short summary
15 Jan 2016
A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process
M. Garcia, K. Portney, and S. Islam
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–92,,, 2016
Short summary
22 Oct 2015
Reconstructing the natural hydrology of the San Francisco Bay–Delta watershed
P. Fox, P. H. Hutton, D. J. Howes, A. J. Draper, and L. Sears
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4257–4274,,, 2015
Short summary
25 Aug 2015
Moving sociohydrology forward: a synthesis across studies
T. J. Troy, M. Konar, V. Srinivasan, and S. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3667–3679,,, 2015
22 Apr 2015
Why is the Arkavathy River drying? A multiple-hypothesis approach in a data-scarce region
V. Srinivasan, S. Thompson, K. Madhyastha, G. Penny, K. Jeremiah, and S. Lele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1905–1917,,, 2015
Short summary
25 Feb 2015
A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China
D. Liu, F. Tian, M. Lin, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1035–1054,,, 2015
Short summary
05 Feb 2015
Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India
V. Srinivasan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 785–801,,, 2015
Short summary
16 Jan 2015
Linked hydrologic and social systems that support resilience of traditional irrigation communities
A. Fernald, S. Guldan, K. Boykin, A. Cibils, M. Gonzales, B. Hurd, S. Lopez, C. Ochoa, M. Ortiz, J. Rivera, S. Rodriguez, and C. Steele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 293–307,,, 2015
11 Dec 2014
A virtual water network of the Roman world
B. J. Dermody, R. P. H. van Beek, E. Meeks, K. Klein Goldewijk, W. Scheidel, Y. van der Velde, M. F. P. Bierkens, M. J. Wassen, and S. C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5025–5040,,, 2014
Short summary
29 Oct 2014
Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia
T. H. M. van Emmerik, Z. Li, M. Sivapalan, S. Pande, J. Kandasamy, H. H. G. Savenije, A. Chanan, and S. Vigneswaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4239–4259,,, 2014
07 Oct 2014
Groundwater dynamics under water-saving irrigation and implications for sustainable water management in an oasis: Tarim River basin of western China
Z. Zhang, H. Hu, F. Tian, X. Yao, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3951–3967,,, 2014
08 Sep 2014
Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil
A. Ribeiro Neto, C. A. Scott, E. A. Lima, S. M. G. L. Montenegro, and J. A. Cirilo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3449–3459,,, 2014
27 Aug 2014
Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity
S. Pande, M. Ertsen, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3239–3258,,, 2014
13 Jun 2014
A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach
Y. Elshafei, M. Sivapalan, M. Tonts, and M. R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2141–2166,,, 2014
14 May 2014
Endogenous change: on cooperation and water availability in two ancient societies
S. Pande and M. Ertsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1745–1760,,, 2014
11 Apr 2014
Socio-hydrology and the science–policy interface: a case study of the Saskatchewan River basin
P. Gober and H. S. Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1413–1422,,, 2014
09 Apr 2014
Relationships between environmental governance and water quality in a growing metropolitan area of the Pacific Northwest, USA
H. Chang, P. Thiers, N. R. Netusil, J. A. Yeakley, G. Rollwagen-Bollens, S. M. Bollens, and S. Singh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1383–1395,,, 2014
08 Apr 2014
Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy
J. Shi, J. Liu, and L. Pinter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1349–1357,,, 2014
08 Apr 2014
A journey of a thousand miles begins with one small step – human agency, hydrological processes and time in socio-hydrology
M. W. Ertsen, J. T. Murphy, L. E. Purdue, and T. Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1369–1382,,, 2014
07 Apr 2014
Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience
C. A. Scott, S. Vicuña, I. Blanco-Gutiérrez, F. Meza, and C. Varela-Ortega
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1339–1348,,, 2014
03 Apr 2014
Socio-hydrologic perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and water in the Tarim River basin, Western China: the Taiji–Tire model
Y. Liu, F. Tian, H. Hu, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1289–1303,,, 2014
13 Mar 2014
Socio-hydrologic drivers of the pendulum swing between agricultural development and environmental health: a case study from Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia
J. Kandasamy, D. Sounthararajah, P. Sivabalan, A. Chanan, S. Vigneswaran, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1027–1041,,, 2014
07 Mar 2014
Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world
S. N. Lane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 927–952,,, 2014
19 Feb 2014
Illustrating a new global-scale approach to estimating potential reduction in fish species richness due to flow alteration
S. Yoshikawa, A. Yanagawa, Y. Iwasaki, P. Sui, S. Koirala, K. Hirano, A. Khajuria, R. Mahendran, Y. Hirabayashi, C. Yoshimura, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 621–630,,, 2014
19 Feb 2014
Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671,,, 2014
10 Feb 2014
Analyzing streamflow changes: irrigation-enhanced interaction between aquifer and streamflow in the Republican River basin
R. Zeng and X. Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 493–502,,, 2014
10 Feb 2014
Globalization of agricultural pollution due to international trade
C. O'Bannon, J. Carr, D. A. Seekell, and P. D'Odorico
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 503–510,,, 2014
06 Feb 2014
Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477,,, 2014
05 Feb 2014
Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis
M. Kummu, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, M. Konzmann, and O. Varis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 447–461,,, 2014
04 Feb 2014
Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, S. Pascale, and J. Böhner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 67–87,,, 2014
04 Feb 2014
What makes Darwinian hydrology "Darwinian"? Asking a different kind of question about landscapes
C. Harman and P. A. Troch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 417–433,,, 2014
31 Jan 2014
Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system
A. J. J. van Soesbergen and M. Mulligan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 55–65,,, 2014
23 Jan 2014
Evolving water science in the Anthropocene
H. H. G. Savenije, A. Y. Hoekstra, and P. van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 319–332,,, 2014
14 Jan 2014
Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system
P. E. O'Connell and G. O'Donnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 155–171,,, 2014
13 Jan 2014
Hard paths, soft paths or no paths? Cross-cultural perceptions of water solutions
A. Wutich, A. C. White, D. D. White, K. L. Larson, A. Brewis, and C. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 109–120,,, 2014
12 Dec 2013
Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene
S. E. Thompson, M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039,,, 2013
05 Dec 2013
A simple explanation for the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature and solar radiation and its implications for global climate change
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 455–465,,, 2013
03 Dec 2013
Reconstructing the duty of water: a study of emergent norms in socio-hydrology
J. L. Jr. Wescoat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4759–4768,,, 2013
21 Nov 2013
Comparative analysis of hydrologic signatures in two agricultural watersheds in east-central Illinois: legacies of the past to inform the future
M. A. Yaeger, M. Sivapalan, G. F. McIsaac, and X. Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4607–4623,,, 2013
20 Nov 2013
Historic maps as a data source for socio-hydrology: a case study of the Lake Balaton wetland system, Hungary
A. Zlinszky and G. Timár
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4589–4606,,, 2013
12 Nov 2013
A paradigm shift in stormflow predictions for active tectonic regions with large-magnitude storms: generalisation of catchment observations by hydraulic sensitivity analysis and insight into soil-layer evolution
Makoto Tani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4453–4470,,, 2013
23 Oct 2013
Continental moisture recycling as a Poisson process
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142,,, 2013
15 Oct 2013
Virtual water trade and development in Africa
M. Konar and K. K. Caylor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3969–3982,,, 2013
09 Oct 2013
A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene
D. Gerten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3841–3852,,, 2013
16 Sep 2013
Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region
L. E. Muñoz-Villers and J. J. McDonnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3543–3560,,, 2013
21 Aug 2013
Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions
G. Di Baldassarre, A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J. L. Salinas, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3295–3303,,, 2013
15 Aug 2013
Virtual water trade flows and savings under climate change
M. Konar, Z. Hussein, N. Hanasaki, D. L. Mauzerall, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3219–3234,,, 2013
15 Aug 2013
Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems
G. Di Baldassarre, M. Kooy, J. S. Kemerink, and L. Brandimarte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3235–3244,,, 2013
30 Jul 2013
Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, and S. Pascale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 199–217,,, 2013
23 Jul 2013
Thermodynamic limits of hydrologic cycling within the Earth system: concepts, estimates and implications
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2873–2892,,, 2013
07 May 2013
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144,,, 2013
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