Articles | Volume 29, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2881-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2881-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 10 Jul 2025
| 10 Jul 2025
Benchmarking historical performance and future projections from a large-scale hydrologic model with a watershed hydrologic model
Rajesh R. Shrestha
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Alex J. Cannon
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Sydney Hoffman
Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Marie Whibley
Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Aranildo Lima
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Related authors
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a Canada-wide assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of the region's major river basins. We find that precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia rivers, which are located in the milder northwestern Pacific region.
Andrew Vincent Grgas-Svirac, Mohammad Fereshtehpour, M. Reza Najafi, Alex J. Cannon, and Hamidreza Shirkhani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2481, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how long, narrow bands of moist air known as atmospheric rivers increase the risk of inland flooding when combined with other factors. Using climate models, we found that these events are already important drivers of flooding in western North America and will likely become even more intense with climate change. Natural climate shifts also affect how often these events occur. The findings help inform future decisions about flood planning and protection.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a Canada-wide assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of the region's major river basins. We find that precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia rivers, which are located in the milder northwestern Pacific region.
Johnny Rutherford, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, and Alex Cannon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic winter is vulnerable to climate warming and ~1700 Gt of carbon stored in high latitude permafrost ecosystems is at risk of degradation in the future due to enhanced microbial activity. Poorly represented cold season processes, such as the simulation of snow thermal conductivity in Land Surface Models (LSMs), causes uncertainty in projected carbon emission simulations. Improved snow conductivity parameterization in CLM5.0 significantly increases predicted winter CO2 emissions to 2100.
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Toward routing river water in land surface models with recurrent neural networks
Representation of a two-way coupled irrigation system in the Common Land Model
Drought decreases annual streamflow response to precipitation, especially in arid regions
Mapping groundwater-dependent ecosystems using a high-resolution global groundwater model
Can large-scale tree cover change negate climate change impacts on future water availability?
Impact of runoff schemes on global flow discharge: a comprehensive analysis using the Noah-MP and CaMa-Flood models
The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of the WaterGAP global hydrological model (WGHM) in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins
The effect of climate change on the simulated streamflow of six Canadian rivers based on the CanRCM4 regional climate model
Skilful Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Using a Fully Coupled Global Climate Model
Hyper-resolution large-scale hydrological modelling benefits from improved process representation in mountain regions
Drivers of global irrigation expansion: the role of discrete global grid choice
Interrogating process deficiencies in large-scale hydrologic models with interpretable machine learning
How can observational data be used to improve the modeling of human-managed reservoirs in large-scale hydrological models?
Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions
Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020
Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia
Global-scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling
Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Unveiling hydrological dynamics in data-scarce regions: experiences from the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin
Technical note: Comparing three different methods for allocating river points to coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid cells
Relevance of feedbacks between water availability and crop systems using a coupled hydrology – crop growth model
Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate
Diagnosing modeling errors in global terrestrial water storage interannual variability
Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent
Poor correlation between large-scale environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity: implications for water resource management and the freshwater planetary boundary
Accuracy of five ground heat flux empirical simulation methods in the surface-energy-balance-based remote-sensing evapotranspiration models
Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff
Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data
Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh
Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States
Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes
Inundation prediction in tropical wetlands from JULES-CaMa-Flood global land surface simulations
Soil moisture estimation in South Asia via assimilation of SMAP retrievals
Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle
The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations
Large-scale sensitivities of groundwater and surface water to groundwater withdrawal
A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models
Mauricio Lima, Katherine Deck, Oliver R. A. Dunbar, and Tapio Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3145–3164, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3145-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3145-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning is playing an increasingly important role in hydrological modeling. In this paper, we introduce an adaptation of existing machine learning models for simulating streamflow in river basins, redesigning them with the goal of integrating them in climate models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our adapted model by showing that it outperforms a physics-based river model. These results motivate further studies of the use of machine-learning-based river models inside climate models.
Shulei Zhang, Hongbin Liang, Fang Li, Xingjie Lu, and Yongjiu Dai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3119–3143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances irrigation modeling in the Common Land Model by capturing the full irrigation process, detailing water supplies from various sources, and enabling bidirectional coupling between water demand and supply. The proposed model accurately simulates irrigation water withdrawals, energy fluxes, river flow, and crop yields. It offers insights into irrigation-related climate impacts and water scarcity, contributing to sustainable water management and improved Earth system modeling.
Alessia Matanó, Raed Hamed, Manuela I. Brunner, Marlies H. Barendrecht, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2749–2764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent droughts change how rivers respond to rainfall. Our study of over 5000 catchments worldwide found that hydrological and soil moisture droughts decrease river-flow response to rain, especially in arid regions, while vegetation decline slightly increases it. Snow-covered areas are more resilient due to stored water buffering changes. Droughts can also cause long-lasting changes, with short and intense droughts reducing river response to rainfall and prolonged droughts increasing it.
Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Aafke M. Schipper, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2153–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The contribution of groundwater to groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is declining as a result of an increase in groundwater abstractions and climate change. This may lead to loss of habitat and biodiversity. This proposed framework enables the mapping and understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of GDEs on a large scale. The next step is to assess the global impacts of climate change and water use on GDE extent and health.
Freek Engel, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Caspar T. J. Roebroek, and Imme Benedict
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1895–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A warming climate alters the freshwater availability over land, and, due to related tree cover change and potential forestation, this availability can be further enhanced or negated. We find that large-scale change in tree cover may counteract climate-driven changes on a global scale, whereas, regionally, the climate and tree cover impacts can differ extensively. Current ecosystem restoration projects should account for the effects of (re-)forestation on (non-)local water availability.
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Alessandro Anav, Cenlin He, and Tzu-Shun Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates how different methods of simulating runoff impact river flow predictions globally. By comparing seven approaches within the Noah-Multi-parameterisation (Noah-MP) land surface model, we found significant differences in accuracy, with some methods underestimating or overestimating runoff. The results are crucial for improving water resource management and flood prediction. Our work highlights the need for precise modelling to better prepare for climate-related challenges.
Howlader Mohammad Mehedi Hasan, Petra Döll, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Fabrice Papa, and Andreas Güntner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 567–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-567-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We calibrate a global hydrological model using multiple observations to analyse the benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration. We found such an approach to be very important for understanding the real-world system. However, some observations are very essential to the system, in particular, streamflow. We also showed uncertainties in the calibration results, which are often useful for making informed decisions. We emphasize considering observation uncertainty in model calibration.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a Canada-wide assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of the region's major river basins. We find that precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia rivers, which are located in the milder northwestern Pacific region.
Gabriel Narváez-Campo and Constantin Ardilouze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2962, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate the capability of a global operational system to predict seasonal river discharges by accounting for interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land, and rivers. The fully coupled approach introduces a convenient single-step workflow, allowing the simultaneous production of atmospheric and streamflow forecasts. Overall, the approach outperforms the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach, providing insight into the next-generation hydrological forecasting systems.
Joren Janzing, Niko Wanders, Marit van Tiel, Barry van Jaarsveld, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Manuela Irene Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3072, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Process representation in hyper-resolution large-scale hydrological models (LHM) limits model performance, particularly in mountain regions. Here, we update mountain process representation in an LHM and compare different meteorological forcing products. Structural and parametric changes in snow, glacier and soil processes improve discharge simulations, while meteorological forcing remains a major control on model performance. Our work can guide future development of LHMs.
Sophie Wagner, Fabian Stenzel, Tobias Krueger, and Jana de Wiljes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Statistical models that explain global irrigation rely on location-referenced data. Traditionally, a system based on longitude and latitude lines is chosen. However, this introduces bias to the analysis due to the Earth's curvature. We propose using a system based on hexagonal grid cells that allows for distortion-free representation of the data. We show that this increases the model's accuracy by 28 % and identify biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of historical global irrigation expansion.
Admin Husic, John Hammond, Adam N. Price, and Joshua K. Roundy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3235, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used explainable machine learning to evaluate the accuracy of two continental-scale hydrologic models. We analyzed a suite of catchment attributes and found that soil water content had the biggest impact on model performance, especially in dry areas. Key thresholds for variables like precipitation and road density were identified, which could guide future improvements in these models. Our findings highlight the potential of data-driven methods to inform process-based models.
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-291, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling reservoir outflow and storage is challenging due to limited publicly available data and human decision-making. For 100 reservoirs in the USA, we examined how calibrating reservoir algorithms against outflow and storage-related variables affects performance. We found that calibration notably improves storage simulations, while outflow simulations are more influenced by the quality of inflow data. We recommend using remotely sensed storage anomalies to calibrate reservoir algorithms.
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future climate projections suggest that climate change will impact groundwater recharge, with its exact effects being uncertain due to incomplete understanding of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and recharge relations. We studied the effects of changes in the average, spread, and frequency of extreme events of rainfall and evapotranspiration on groundwater recharge. We found that increasing or decreasing the potential evaporation has the most dominant effect on groundwater recharge.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Anna M. Ukkola, Steven Thomas, Elisabeth Vogel, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Steven Siems, Vjekoslav Matic, and Wendy Sharples
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X56110, https://doi.org/10.31223/X56110, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained stubbornly uncertain. We assess future drought changes in Australia using projections from climate and hydrological models. We show an increasing probability of drought over highly-populated and agricultural regions of Australia in coming decades, suggesting potential impacts on agricultural activities, ecosystems and urban water supply.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Omar V. Müller, Patrick C. McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2179–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a pioneering comprehensive integrated approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, we offer a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work was performed in order to precisely address a point that is often neglected by hydrologists: the allocation of points located on a river network to grid cells, which is often a mandatory step for hydrological modelling.
Sneha Chevuru, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jerom P. M. Aerts, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-465, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper integrates PCR-GLOBWB 2 hydrological model with WOFOST crop growth model to analyze mutual feedbacks between hydrology and crop growth. It quantifies one-way and two-way feedbacks between hydrology and crop growth, revealing patterns in crop yield and irrigation water use. Dynamic interactions enhance understanding of climate variability impacts on food production, highlighting the importance of two-way model coupling for accurate assessments.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work, we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affects weather prediction.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Xiufeng He, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4551–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using evidence from meteorological stations, this study assessed the climatic, hydrological, and ecological aridity changes in global drylands and their associated mechanisms. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. This highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission enabled the quantification of water mass redistributions from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of GRACE satellite data shows here that slow changes in terrestrial water storage occurring over a few years to a decade are severely underestimated by global hydrological models. Several sources of errors may explain such biases, likely including the inaccurate representation of groundwater storage changes.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to improvements in the model characterization of water and energy fluxes. The results show that multi-objective autocalibration in combination with mathematical regularization is a powerful tool to improve land surface models. Using the direct measurement of turbulent fluxes as the target variable, parameter optimization matches simulations and observations of latent heat, whereas sensible heat is clearly biased.
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Zhaofei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground heat flux (G) accounts for a significant fraction of the surface energy balance (SEB), but there is insufficient research on these models compared with other flux. The accuracy of G simulation methods in the SEB-based remote sensing evapotranspiration models is evaluated. Results show that the accuracy of each method varied significantly at different sites and at half-hour intervals. Further improvement of G simulations is recommended for the remote sensing evapotranspiration modelers.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use three models to forecast river streamflow operationally for 13 months (September 2020 to October 2021) at 10 gauges in the western US. The first model is a state-of-the-art physics-based streamflow model (GloFAS). The second applies a bias-correction technique to GloFAS. The third is a type of neural network (an LSTM). We find that all three are capable of producing skilful forecasts but that the LSTM performs the best, with skilful 5 d forecasts at nine stations.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Yu Tian, Denghua Yan, Weixin Xu, Huayang Cai, Jiabiao Wang, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4233–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection. Specifically, the intersection operation of the coefficient of determination derives the overlapping information for GCM forecasts and the Niño3.4 index, and then the difference operation determines the differing information in GCM forecasts (Niño3.4 index) from the Niño3.4 index (GCM forecasts).
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Jawairia A. Ahmad, Barton A. Forman, and Sujay V. Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2221–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data-scarce regions.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Andreas Güntner, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1089–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the effect of how vegetation is defined in a global hydrological model on the composition of total water storage (TWS). We compare two experiments, one with globally uniform and one with vegetation parameters that vary in space and time. While both experiments are constrained against observational data, we found a drastic change in the partitioning of TWS, highlighting the important role of the interaction between groundwater–soil moisture–vegetation in understanding TWS variations.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Cited articles
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Fao, Rome, 300, D05109, ISBN 92-5-104219-5, 1998.
Andreadis, K. M., Storck, P., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05429, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007042, 2009.
Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Nai, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogel, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., and Trewin, B.: Technical Summary, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 35–144, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002, 2021.
Beck, H. E., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., de Roo, A., Miralles, D. G., McVicar, T. R., Schellekens, J., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters, Water Resour. Res., 52, 3599–3622, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018247, 2016.
Bennett, A. R., Hamman, J. J., and Nijssen, B.: MetSim: A Python package for estimation and disaggregation of meteorological data, Journal of Open Source Software, 5, 2042, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02042, 2020.
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006.
Beven, K.: Benchmarking hydrological models for an uncertain future, Hydrol. Process., 37, e14882, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14882, 2023.
Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions, Water Resour. Res., 51, 4923–4947, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017173, 2015.
Bonsal, B., Shrestha, R. R., Dibike, Y., Peters, D. L., Spence, C., Mudryk, L., and Yang, D.: Western Canadian Freshwater Availability: Current and Future Vulnerabilities, Environ. Rev., 28, 528–545, https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2020-0040, 2020.
Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., Thiery, W., Gerten, D., Schmied, H. M., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Pokhrel, Y., and Wanders, N.: Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104028, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc, 2021.
Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Kahil, T., Tang, T., Greve, P., Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020.
Byun, K., Chiu, C.-M., and Hamlet, A. F.: Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US, Sci. Total Environ., 650, 1261–1277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.063, 2019.
Cannon, A. J.: Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an N-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables, Clim. Dynam., 50, 31–49, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6, 2018.
Cannon, A. J.: MBC: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MBC/index.html (last access: 3 June 2025), 2022.
Chegwidden, O. S., Nijssen, B., Rupp, D. E., Arnold, J. R., Clark, M. P., Hamman, J. J., Kao, S.-C., Mao, Y., Mizukami, N., Mote, P. W., Pan, M., Pytlak, E., and Xiao, M.: How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates, Earth's Future, 7, 623–637, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001047, 2019.
Cherkauer, K. A. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic effects of frozen soils in the upper Mississippi River basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 19599–19610, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900337, 1999.
Cherkauer, K. A. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Simulation of spatial variability in snow and frozen soil, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8858, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003575, 2003.
Chow, V. T.: Applied Hydrology, Tata McGraw-Hill Education, 592 pp., ISBN 007070242X, 2010.
Curry, C. L., Islam, S. U., Zwiers, F. W., and Déry, S. J.: Atmospheric Rivers Increase Future Flood Risk in Western Canada's Largest Pacific River, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1651–1661, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080720, 2019.
Danielson, J. J. and Gesch, D. B.: Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010), US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20111073, 2011.
Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, T.: A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE T. Evolut. Comput., 6, 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1109/4235.996017, 2002.
Döll, P., Trautmann, T., Gerten, D., Schmied, H. M., Ostberg, S., Saaed, F., and Schleussner, C.-F.: Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044038, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792, 2018.
Döll, P., Hasan, H. M. M., Schulze, K., Gerdener, H., Börger, L., Shadkam, S., Ackermann, S., Hosseini-Moghari, S.-M., Müller Schmied, H., Güntner, A., and Kusche, J.: Leveraging multi-variable observations to reduce and quantify the output uncertainty of a global hydrological model: evaluation of three ensemble-based approaches for the Mississippi River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2259–2295, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2259-2024, 2024.
Ekström, M., Gutmann, E. D., Wilby, R. L., Tye, M. R., and Kirono, D. G. C.: Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research, WIREs Water, 5, e1288, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1288, 2018.
Elsner, M. M., Cuo, L., Voisin, N., Deems, J. S., Hamlet, A. F., Vano, J. A., Mickelson, K. E. B., Lee, S.-Y., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Climatic Change, 102, 225–260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0, 2010.
Erlandsen, H. B., Beldring, S., Eisner, S., Hisdal, H., Huang, S., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Constraining the HBV model for robust water balance assessments in a cold climate, Hydrol. Res., 52, 356–372, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.132, 2021.
Eum, H.-I., Dibike, Y., and Prowse, T.: Comparative evaluation of the effects of climate and land-cover changes on hydrologic responses of the Muskeg River, Alberta, Canada, J. Hydrol.-Reg. Stud., 8, 198–221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.10.003, 2016.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
FAO: Harmonized world soil database v1.2 | FAO SOILS PORTAL | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/data-hub/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/en/ (last access: 3 June 2025), 2012.
Flato, G., Gillett, N., Arora, V., Cannon, A. J., and Anstey, J.: Modelling future climate change, in: Canada's Changing Climate Report, edited by: Bush, E. and Lemmen, D. S., Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 74–111, https://doi.org/10.4095/327808, 2019.
Forster, P. M., Smith, C. J., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M. D., Rogelj, J., von Schuckmann, K., Seneviratne, S. I., Trewin, B., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Birt, A., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J. A., Cheng, L., Dentener, F., Friedlingstein, P., Gutiérrez, J. M., Gütschow, J., Hall, B., Ishii, M., Jenkins, S., Lan, X., Lee, J.-Y., Morice, C., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R., Minx, J. C., Naik, V., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Szopa, S., Thorne, P., Rohde, R., Rojas Corradi, M., Schumacher, D., Vose, R., Zickfeld, K., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023.
Fortin, F.-A., De Rainville, F.-M., Gardner, M.-A. G., Parizeau, M., and Gagné, C.: DEAP: evolutionary algorithms made easy, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 13, 2171–2175, 2012.
Franchini, M. and Pacciani, M.: Comparative analysis of several conceptual rainfall-runoff models, J. Hydrol., 122, 161–219, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(91)90178-K, 1991.
Gädeke, A., Krysanova, V., Aryal, A., Chang, J., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schaphoff, S., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., and Thonicke, K.: Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds, Climatic Change, 163, 1329–1351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2, 2020.
Gilleland, E.: extRemes: Extreme Value Analysis, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/extRemes/index.html (last access: 3 June 2025), 2024.
Global Soil Data Task: Global soil data products CD-ROM contents (IGBP-DIS), Data Set, Oak Ridge Natl, Lab. Distrib. Active Arch. Cent., Oak Ridge, Tenn. [data set], 10, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/565, 2014.
Greve, P., Burek, P., and Wada, Y.: Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026280, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026280, 2020.
Greve, P., Burek, P., Guillaumot, L., Meijgaard, E. van, Aalbers, E., Smilovic, M. M., Sperna-Weiland, F., Kahil, T., and Wada, Y.: Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 094020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acec60, 2023.
Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., and Vose, R. S.: Changing State of the Climate System, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 287–422, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004, 2021.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Hamilton, A. S. and Moore, R. D.: Quantifying Uncertainty in Streamflow Records, Can. Water Resour. J., 37, 3–21, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3701865, 2012.
Hamman, J. J., Nijssen, B., Bohn, T. J., Gergel, D. R., and Mao, Y.: The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3481–3496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3481-2018, 2018.
Hanasaki, N., Matsuda, H., Fujiwara, M., Hirabayashi, Y., Seto, S., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022.
Hansen, B. B., Grøtan, V., Aanes, R., Sæther, B.-E., Stien, A., Fuglei, E., Ims, R. A., Yoccoz, N. G., and Pedersen, Å. Ø.: Climate Events Synchronize the Dynamics of a Resident Vertebrate Community in the High Arctic, Science, 339, 313–315, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1226766, 2013.
Hanus, S., Schuster, L., Burek, P., Maussion, F., Wada, Y., and Viviroli, D.: Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024.
Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Gosling, S. N., Dankers, R., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Flörke, M., Huang, S., Motovilov, Y., Buda, S., Yang, T., Müller, C., Leng, G., Tang, Q., Portmann, F. T., Hagemann, S., Gerten, D., Wada, Y., Masaki, Y., Alemayehu, T., Satoh, Y., and Samaniego, L.: Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins, Climatic Change, 141, 561–576, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4, 2017.
Hattermann, F. F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, F., Gosling, S. N., P Hoffmann, Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Yang, T., and Krysnaova, V.: Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 015006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938, 2018.
Heginbottom, J. A., Dubreuil, M. A., and Harker, P. A.: Canada – permafrost, National Atlas of Canada, National Atlas Information Service, Natural Resources Canada, MCR, 4177, https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/d1e2048b-ccff-5852-aaa5-b861bd55c367 (last access: 3 June 2025), 1995.
Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Schmied, H. M., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I. J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., and Frieler, K.: Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 074005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0, 2024.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 29, 271–281, https://doi.org/10.1029/92WR01980, 1993.
Huang, S., Kumar, R., Flörke, M., Yang, T., Hundecha, Y., Kraft, P., Gao, C., Gelfan, A., Liersch, S., Lobanova, A., Strauch, M., van Ogtrop, F., Reinhardt, J., Haberlandt, U., and Krysanova, V.: Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide, Climatic Change, 141, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8, 2017.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E.: Hole-filled seamless SRTM for the globe, version 4, https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/ (last access: 17 July 2024), 2008.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017.
Krysanova, V., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tang, Q., and Wada, Y.: How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change, Climatic Change, 163, 1353–1377, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0, 2020.
Latifovic, R., Homer, C., Ressl, R., Pouliot, D., Hossain, S. N., Colditz, R. R., Olthof, I., Giri, C. P., and Victoria, A.: North American land change monitoring system, Remote sensing of land use and land cover: principles and applications, 303–324, ISBN 9780429138317, 2012.
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14415–14428, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00483, 1994.
Liang, X., Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification, Global Planet. Change, 13, 195–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00046-1, 1996.
Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 43, 131–141, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669809492107, 1998.
Mahony, C. R., Wang, T., Hamann, A., and Cannon, A. J.: A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 5871–5891, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7566, 2022.
Merz, R., Miniussi, A., Basso, S., Petersen, K.-J., and Tarasova, L.: More Complex is Not Necessarily Better in Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling: A Model Complexity Experiment across the Contiguous United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1947–E1967, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0284.1, 2022.
Meyer, J., Kohn, I., Stahl, K., Hakala, K., Seibert, J., and Cannon, A. J.: Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, 2019.
Molnau, M. and Bissell, V. C.: A continuous frozen ground index for flood forecasting, in: Proceedings 51st Annual Meeting Western Snow Conference, Cambridge, Ontario, 109–119, 1983.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Pitié, F., Kokaram, A. C., and Dahyot, R.: Automated colour grading using colour distribution transfer, Comput. Vis. Image Und., 107, 123–137, 2007.
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C.-E., Thiery, W., Veldkamp, T., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 226–233, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w, 2021.
Qi, W., Chen, J., Li, L., Xu, C.-Y., Li, J., Xiang, Y., and Zhang, S.: Regionalization of catchment hydrological model parameters for global water resources simulations, Hydrol. Res., 53, 441–466, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.118, 2022.
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Byers, E., Schmied, H. M., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Gosling, S. N., Boulange, J. E. S., and Oki, T.: The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change, Nat. Commun., 13, 3287, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2, 2022.
Schnorbus, M., Werner, A., and Bennett, K.: Impacts of climate change in three hydrologic regimes in British Columbia, Canada, Hydrolog. Process., 28, 1170–1189, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9661, 2014.
Shrestha, R. R. and Rode, M.: Multi-objective calibration and fuzzy preference selection of a distributed hydrological model, Environ. Modell. Softw., 23, 1384–1395, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.04.001, 2008.
Shrestha, R. R., Peters, D. L., and Schnorbus, M. A.: Evaluating the ability of a hydrologic model to replicate hydro-ecologically relevant indicators, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4294–4310, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9997, 2014.
Shrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., and Peters, D. L.: Assessment of a hydrologic model's reliability in simulating flow regime alterations in a changing climate, Hydrol. Process., 30, 2628–2643, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10812, 2016.
Shrestha, R. R., Cannon, A. J., Schnorbus, M. A., and Alford, H.: Climatic Controls on Future Hydrologic Changes in a Subarctic River Basin in Canada, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 1757–1778, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0262.1, 2019.
Shrestha, R. R., Pesklevits, J., Yang, D., Peters, D. L., and Dibike, Y. B.: Climatic Controls on Mean and Extreme Streamflow Changes Across the Permafrost Region of Canada, Water, 13, 626, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050626, 2021.
Shrestha, R. R., Dibike, Y. B., and Bonsal, B. R.: Snowpack driven streamflow predictability under future climate: contrasting changes across two western Canadian river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 1, 1113–1129, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0214.1, 2022.
Shuttleworth, W. J.: Evaporation, in: Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, 4.1-4.53, ISBN 0070397325, 1993.
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M.: Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020.
Szeto, K. K., Tran, H., MacKay, M. D., Crawford, R., and Stewart, R. E.: The MAGS Water and Energy Budget Study, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 96–115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM810.1, 2008.
Telteu, C.-E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., Boulange, J. E. S., Andersen, L. S., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Satoh, Y., Rakovec, O., Stacke, T., Chang, J., Wanders, N., Shah, H. L., Trautmann, T., Mao, G., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Samaniego, L., Wada, Y., Mishra, V., Liu, J., Döll, P., Zhao, F., Gädeke, A., Rabin, S. S., and Herz, F.: Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021.
Thornton, P. E. and Running, S. W.: An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 93, 211–228, 1999.
Thornton, P. E., Hasenauer, H., and White, M. A.: Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 104, 255–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00170-2, 2000.
van Jaarsveld, B., Wanders, N., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Hoch, J., Droppers, B., Janzing, J., van Beek, R. L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: A first attempt to model global hydrology at hyper-resolution, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1025, 2024.
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Zhao, F., Ward, P. J., Moel, H. de, Aerts, J. C. J. H., Schmied, H. M., Portmann, F. T., Masaki, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Liu, X., Satoh, Y., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Zaherpour, J., and Wada, Y.: Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 055008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab96f, 2018.
Vigiak, O., Lutz, S., Mentzafou, A., Chiogna, G., Tuo, Y., Majone, B., Beck, H., de Roo, A., Malagó, A., Bouraoui, F., Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., Merz, R., Gamvroudis, C., Skoulikidis, N., Nikolaidis, N. P., Bellin, A., Acuňa, V., Mori, N., Ludwig, R., and Pistocchi, A.: Uncertainty of modelled flow regime for flow-ecological assessment in Southern Europe, Sci. Total Environ., 615, 1028–1047, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.295, 2018.
Visser-Quinn, A., Beevers, L., and Patidar, S.: Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019.
Warden, J. W., Rezvani, R., Najafi, M. R., and Shrestha, R. R.: Projections of rain-on-snow events in a sub-arctic river basin under 1.5 °C–4 °C global warming, Hydrol. Process., 38, e15250, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15250, 2024.
Werner, A. T., Schnorbus, M. A., Shrestha, R. R., Cannon, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., Dayon, G., and Anslow, F.: A long-term, temporally consistent, gridded daily meteorological dataset for northwestern North America, Scientific Data, 6, 180299, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.299, 2019.
Woo, M.-K. and Thorne, R.: Snowmelt contribution to discharge from a large mountainous catchment in subarctic Canada, Hydrol. Process., 20, 2129–2139, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6205, 2006.
Yoshida, T., Hanasaki, N., Nishina, K., Boulange, J., Okada, M., and Troch, P. A.: Inference of Parameters for a Global Hydrological Model: Identifiability and Predictive Uncertainties of Climate-Based Parameters, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030660, 2022.
Zaherpour, J., Gosling, S. N., Mount, N., Schmied, H. M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Haddeland, I., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Leng, G., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schewe, J., and Wada, Y.: Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 065015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac547, 2018.
Zhao, R. J. and Liu, X. R.: The Xinanjiang model, in: Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, 215–232, ISBN 10 0-918334-91-8, 1995.
Zscheischler, J., Fischer, E. M., and Lange, S.: The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019.
Short summary
We evaluate the historical performance and future projections from a large-scale hydrologic model, the Community Water Model, against a watershed hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity, for the Liard River basin in Canada. Results from the two models are generally consistent at annual and monthly timescales, suggesting that a calibrated global hydrologic model can provide robust projections. We explain the differences in projections in terms of model uncertainties.
We evaluate the historical performance and future projections from a large-scale hydrologic...
