Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3327-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3327-2024
Research article
 | 
26 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 26 Jul 2024

Flood drivers and trends: a case study of the Geul River catchment (the Netherlands) over the past half century

Athanasios Tsiokanos, Martine Rutten, Ruud J. van der Ent, and Remko Uijlenhoet

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Cited articles

Agor, M. L. C.: Assessment of the long-term rainfall runoff relation of the Geul catchment, Masters thesis, UNESCO – IHE Institute for Water Education, the Netherlands, https://ihedelftrepository.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/masters2/id/43685/rec/7 (last access: 7 November 2023), 2003. a
Alexandersson, H.: A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, J. Climatol., 6, 661–675, 1986. a
Alexandersson, H. and Moberg, A.: Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part I: Homogeneity test for linear trends, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 25–34, 1997. a
Andrés-Doménech, I., García-Bartual, R., Montanari, A., and Marco, J. B.: Climate and hydrological variability: the catchment filtering role, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 379–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-379-2015, 2015. a
Asselman, N., van Heeringen, K.-J., de Jong, J., and Geertsema, T.: Juli 2021 overstroming en wateroverlast in Zuid-Limburg: Eerste bevindingen voor Valkenburg, Geulmonding, Roermonding en Eygelshoven, Tech. rep., report 11207700-000-ZWS-0019, Deltares, the Netherlands, https://www.waterschaplimburg.nl/publish/pages/7013/juli_2021_overstroming_en_wateroverlast_in_zuid-limburg.pdf (last access: 7 November 2023), 2022. a, b
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Short summary
We focus on past high-flow events to find flood drivers in the Geul. We also explore flood drivers’ trends across various timescales and develop a new method to detect the main direction of a trend. Our results show that extreme 24 h precipitation alone is typically insufficient to cause floods. The combination of extreme rainfall and wet initial conditions determines the chance of flooding. Precipitation that leads to floods increases in winter, whereas no consistent trends are found in summer.
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