Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
Research article
 | 
09 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 09 Mar 2022

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters

Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz

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Cited articles

Aalbers, E., van Meijgaard, E., Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., and van den Hurk, B.: The 2018 European drought under future climate conditions, Environ. Res. Lett., in preparation, 2022. a
Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2018. a
Addor, N., Newman, A. J., Mizukami, N., and Clark, M. P.: The CAMELS data set: catchment attributes and meteorology for large-sample studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5293–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5293-2017, 2017. a
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J. H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., and Cobb, N.: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001, 2010. a, b
Andréassian, V., Parent, E., and Michel, C.: A distribution-free test to detect gradual changes in watershed behavior, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002081, 2003. a
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Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.