Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207
29 Jul 2022
 | 29 Jul 2022
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Future changes in flash flood frequency and magnitude over the European Alps

Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts

Abstract. Flash Floods are damaging natural hazards which often occur in the European Alps. Precipitation patterns and intensity may change in a future climate affecting their occurrence and magnitude. For impact studies, flash floods can be difficult to simulate due the complex orography and limited extent & duration of the heavy rainfall events which trigger them. The new generation convection-permitting regional climate models (CP-RCMs) improve the representation of the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation. Therefore, this study combines such simulations with high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling to assess changes in flash flood frequency over the Alpine domain. We use output from a state-of-the-art CP-RCM to drive a high-resolution distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model covering most of the Alpine mountain range on an hourly resolution. First, the hydrological model was validated by comparing ERA5 driven simulation with streamflow observations from 130 stations (across Rhone, Rhine, Po, Adige and Danube basins). Second, a hourly wflow_sbm simulation driven by a CP-RCM downscaled ERAInterim simulation was compared to databases of past flood events to evaluate if the model can accurately simulate flash floods and to determine a suitable threshold definition for flash flooding. Finally, simulations of the future climate RCP 8.5 for the end-of-century (2096–2105) and current climate (1998–2007) are compared for which the CPRCM is driven by a Global Climate Model. The simulations are compared to assess if there are changes in flash flood frequency and magnitude using a threshold approach. Results show a similar flash flood frequency for autumn in the future, but a decrease in summer. However, the future climate simulations indicate an increase in the flash flood severity in both summer and autumn leading to more severe flash flood impacts.

Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-207', Jie Chen, 04 Oct 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Marjanne Zander, 10 Oct 2022
  • RC1: 'Review of hess-2022-207', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Marjanne Zander, 28 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-207', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marjanne Zander, 28 Nov 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-207', Jie Chen, 04 Oct 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Marjanne Zander, 10 Oct 2022
  • RC1: 'Review of hess-2022-207', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Marjanne Zander, 28 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-207', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marjanne Zander, 28 Nov 2022
Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts

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Short summary
We perform a modelling study to research potential future changes in flash flood occurrence in the European Alps. We use new high-resolution numerical climate simulations, which can simulate the type of local, intense rainstorms which trigger flash floods, combined with high-resolution hydrological modelling. We find that flash floods would become less frequent in summers in our future climate scenario, with little change in autumns. However, the maximal severity would increase in both seasons.