Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
Research article
 | 
09 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 09 Mar 2022

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters

Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz

Data sets

E-OBS gridded dataset (v20.0e) EU-FP6 project UERRA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the data providers in the ECA{\&}D project https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php

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Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.