Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Mar 2022
Research article |
| 09 Mar 2022
| 09 Mar 2022
Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Department Catchment and Urban Hydrology, Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Emma E. Aalbers
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Albrecht H. Weerts
Department Catchment and Urban Hydrology, Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Mark Hegnauer
Department Catchment and Urban Hydrology, Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Hendrik Buiteveld
Rijkswaterstaat, P.O. Box 2232, 3500 GE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Rita Lammersen
Rijkswaterstaat, P.O. Box 2232, 3500 GE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Jasper Stam
Rijkswaterstaat, P.O. Box 2232, 3500 GE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Eric Sprokkereef
Rijkswaterstaat, P.O. Box 2232, 3500 GE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Hubert H. G. Savenije
Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Markus Hrachowitz
Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
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- Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate F. Wolkeba et al. 10.1029/2023GL106004
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- Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions N. Tempel et al. 10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024
- Technical note: Do different projections matter for the Budyko framework? R. Nijzink & S. Schymanski 10.5194/hess-26-4575-2022
- BioVars - A bioclimatic dataset for Europe based on a large regional climate ensemble for periods in 1971–2098 A. Reichmuth et al. 10.1038/s41597-025-04507-w
- Explaining changes in rainfall–runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective K. Fowler et al. 10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022
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- An Approach to Evaluate Mountain Forest Protection and Management as a Means for Flood Mitigation J. Rüegg et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2022.785740
- Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan? F. Clerc-Schwarzenbach et al. 10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024
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- Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany S. Wang et al. 10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024
- Ecohydrological insight: Solar farms facilitate carbon sink enhancement in drylands C. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118304
- Global patterns in vegetation accessible subsurface water storage emerge from spatially varying importance of individual drivers F. van Oorschot et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8805
- HESS Opinions: Are soils overrated in hydrology? H. Gao et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2607-2023
- Hydro-climatic extremes shift the hydrologic sensitivity regime in a cold basin S. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174744
- Seeing roots from space: aboveground fingerprints of root depth in vegetation sensitivity to climate in dry biomes N. Kühn et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9d4f
- Challenges in studying water fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: A tracer-based perspective on pathways to progress N. Orlowski et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163510
- Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation F. van Oorschot et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024
- Root zone in the Earth system H. Gao et al. 10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024
- Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming P. Greve et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acec60
- Investigating meteorological wet and dry transitions in the Dutch Meuse River basin S. Hariharan Sudha et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1394563
- Drought in a warmer, CO 2 -rich climate restricts grassland water use and soil water mixing J. Radolinski et al. 10.1126/science.ado0734
Latest update: 30 Mar 2025
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use...
