Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
26 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 26 Jan 2018

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

David Cross, Christian Onof, Hugo Winter, and Pietro Bernardara

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Cited articles

Bacchi, B., Becciu, G., and Kottegoda, N. T.: Bivariate exponential model applied to intensities and durations of extreme rainfall, J. Hydrol., 155, 225–236, 1994.
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298, 1992.
Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Tawn, J.: An evaluation of three stochastic rainfall models, J. Hydrol., 228, 130–149, 2000a.
Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Tawn, J.: Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett–Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty), Adv. Water Resour., 24, 203–211, 2000b.
Chandler, R.: A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall models, Bernoulli, 3, 301–322, 1997.
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is one of the most significant natural hazards. However, estimating very large events is highly uncertain. We present a new approach to construct intense rainfall using the structure of rainfall generation in clouds. The method is particularly effective at estimating short-duration extremes, which can be the most damaging. This is expected to have immediate impact for the estimation of very rare downpours, with the potential to improve climate resilience and hazard preparedness.