Articles | Volume 27, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4187-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4187-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A statistical–dynamical approach for probabilistic prediction of sub-seasonal precipitation anomalies over 17 hydroclimatic regions in China
Yuan Li
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Kangning Xü
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Zhiwei Zhu
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Quan J. Wang
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Australia
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The relationship between atmospheric intraseasonal signals and precipitation is highly uncertain and depends on the region and lead time. In this study, we develop a spatiotemporal projection, based on a Bayesian hierarchical model (STP-BHM), to address the above challenge. The results suggest that the STP-BHM model is skillful and reliable for probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts over China during the boreal summer monsoon season.
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Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
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This is our latest research on hydrological regime change, possible reasons for Taihu water stage increase and flood risks in Taihu Basin. Quantitative evaluation of hydrological response to climate change and human activities affecting Taihu water stage. The findings are useful for improved understanding of changing hydrological processes in the Taihu Basin under rapid development of urbanization.
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Short summary
A spatial–temporal projection-based calibration, bridging, and merging (STP-CBaM) method is proposed. The calibration model is built by post-processing ECMWF raw forecasts, while the bridging models are built using atmospheric intraseasonal signals as predictors. The calibration model and bridging models are merged through a Bayesian modelling averaging (BMA) method. The results indicate that the newly developed method can generate skilful and reliable sub-seasonal precipitation forecasts.
A spatial–temporal projection-based calibration, bridging, and merging (STP-CBaM) method is...