Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 24 Feb 2020
A data-based predictive model for spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Anna Lintern
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, VIC,
Australia
J. Angus Webb
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Dongryeol Ryu
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Ulrike Bende-Michl
Bureau of Meteorology, Parkes, ACT, Australia
Shuci Liu
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Andrew William Western
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of
Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Related authors
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Shuci Liu, Dongryeol Ryu, J. Angus Webb, Anna Lintern, Danlu Guo, David Waters, and Andrew W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2663–2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Riverine water quality can change markedly at one particular location. This study developed predictive models to represent the temporal variation in stream water quality across the Great Barrier Reef catchments, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which is useful for identifying important factors determining temporal changes in water quality and, in turn, providing critical information for developing management strategies.
Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, and Holger R. Maier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-7, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We detail the production of data sets and communication to end users of high resolution projections of rainfall, runoff and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Shuci Liu, Dongryeol Ryu, J. Angus Webb, Anna Lintern, Danlu Guo, David Waters, and Andrew W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2663–2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Riverine water quality can change markedly at one particular location. This study developed predictive models to represent the temporal variation in stream water quality across the Great Barrier Reef catchments, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which is useful for identifying important factors determining temporal changes in water quality and, in turn, providing critical information for developing management strategies.
Theresa Boas, Heye Bogena, Thomas Grünwald, Bernard Heinesch, Dongryeol Ryu, Marius Schmidt, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 573–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-573-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we were able to significantly improve CLM5 model performance for European cropland sites by adding a winter wheat representation, specific plant parameterizations for important cash crops, and a cover-cropping and crop rotation subroutine to its crop module. Our modifications should be applied in future studies of CLM5 to improve regional yield predictions and to better understand large-scale impacts of agricultural management on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.
Chinchu Mohan, Andrew W. Western, Yongping Wei, and Margarita Saft
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2689–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To ensure a sustainable supply of groundwater, scientific information about what is going into the system as recharge and what is taken out of the system via pumping is essential. This study identified the most influential factors in groundwater recharge and developed an empirical global recharge model. The meteorological and vegetation factors were the most important factors, and the long-term global average recharge was 134 mm per year. This model will aid in groundwater policy-making.
Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, and Holger R. Maier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
Wade T. Crow, Eunjin Han, Dongryeol Ryu, Christopher R. Hain, and Martha C. Anderson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1849–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1849-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial water storage is defined as the total volume of water stored within the land surface and sub-surface and is a key variable for tracking long-term variability in the global water cycle. Currently, annual variations in terrestrial water storage can only be measured at extremely coarse spatial resolutions (> 200 000 km2) using gravity-based remote sensing. Here we provide evidence that microwave-based remote sensing of soil moisture can be applied to enhance this resolution.
Shabnam Saffarpour, Andrew W. Western, Russell Adams, and Jeffrey J. McDonnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4525–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4525-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A variety of threshold mechanisms influence the transfer of rainfall to runoff from catchments. Some of these mechanisms depend on the occurrence of intense rainfall and others depend on the catchment being wet. This article first provides a framework for considering which mechanisms are important in different situations and then uses that framework to examine the behaviour of a catchment in Australia that exhibits a mix of both rainfall intensity and catchment wetness dependent thresholds.
Z. K. Tesemma, Y. Wei, M. C. Peel, and A. W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2821–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2821-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2821-2015, 2015
Z. Lu, Y. Wei, H. Xiao, S. Zou, J. Xie, J. Ren, and A. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2261–2273, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2261-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper quantitatively analyzed the evolution of human-water relationships in the Heihe River basin over the past 2000 years by reconstructing the catchment water balance. The results provided the basis for investigating the impacts of human societies on hydrological systems. The evolutionary processes of human-water relationships can be divided into four stages: predevelopment, take-off, acceleration, and rebalancing. And the transition of the human-water relationship had no fixed pattern.
C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.
J. F. Costelloe, T. J. Peterson, K. Halbert, A. W. Western, and J. J. McDonnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1599–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1599-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1599-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater surface mapping is used as an independent data set to better estimate groundwater discharge to streamflow. The groundwater surfaces indicated when other techniques likely overestimated the groundwater discharge component of baseflow. Groundwater surfaces also identified areas where regional groundwater could not be contributing to tributary streamflow. This method adds significant value to water resource management where sufficient groundwater monitoring data are available.
C.-H. Su and D. Ryu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-17-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-17-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Global environmental monitoring requires geophysical measurements from a variety of sources and sensors to close the information gap. This paper proposes a novel approach for analysing temporal scale-by-scale differences (biases and errors) between geophysical estimates from disparate sources. This allows assessment of different bias correction schemes, and forms the basis for a multi-scale bias correction scheme and data-adaptive, non-linear de-noising.
Z. K. Tesemma, Y. Wei, M. C. Peel, and A. W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-10515-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-10515-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes
Exploring tracer information in a small stream to improve parameter identifiability and enhance the process interpretation in transient storage models
How do inorganic nitrogen processing pathways change quantitatively at daily, seasonal, and multiannual scales in a large agricultural stream?
Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network
Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models
Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management
Evaluation and interpretation of convolutional long short-term memory networks for regional hydrological modelling
Synthesizing the impacts of baseflow contribution on concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships across Australia using a Bayesian hierarchical model
Calibrating 1D hydrodynamic river models in the absence of cross-section geometry using satellite observations of water surface elevation and river width
A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)
Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting
Quantifying floodwater impacts on a lake water budget via volume-dependent transient stable isotope mass balance
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction
Bathymetry and latitude modify lake warming under ice
Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years
Reservoir evaporation in a Mediterranean climate: comparing direct methods in Alqueva Reservoir, Portugal
Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming
Anthropogenic influence on the Rhine water temperatures
A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Assessment of the geomorphic effectiveness of controlled floods in a braided river using a reduced-complexity numerical model
Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
Modeling inorganic carbon dynamics in the Seine River continuum in France
Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
Improving lake mixing process simulations in the Community Land Model by using K profile parameterization
Upgraded global mapping information for earth system modelling: an application to surface water depth at the ECMWF
Sediment transport modelling in riverine environments: on the importance of grain-size distribution, sediment density, and suspended sediment concentrations at the upstream boundary
Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization
Lidar-based approaches for estimating solar insolation in heavily forested streams
Numerical study on the response of the largest lake in China to climate change
Unraveling the hydrological budget of isolated and seasonally contrasted subtropical lakes
Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
Conservative finite-volume forms of the Saint-Venant equations for hydrology and urban drainage
Modelling Lake Titicaca's daily and monthly evaporation
Principal components of thermal regimes in mountain river networks
Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis
Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 2: Future projections
Breeze effects at a large artificial lake: summer case study
Impacts of changing hydrology on permanent gully growth: experimental results
Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks
Passive acoustic measurement of bedload grain size distribution using self-generated noise
Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?
Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Olivia Desgué-Itier, Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Orlane Anneville, Damien Bouffard, Vincent Chanudet, Pierre Alain Danis, Isabelle Domaizon, Jean Guillard, Théo Mazure, Najwa Sharaf, Frédéric Soulignac, Viet Tran-Khac, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Jean-Philippe Jenny
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Jingshui Huang, Dietrich Borchardt, and Michael Rode
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5817–5833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we set up a water quality model using a 5-year paired high-frequency water quality dataset from a large agricultural stream. The simulations were compared with the 15 min interval measurements and showed very good fits. Based on these, we quantified the N uptake pathway rates and efficiencies at daily, seasonal, and yearly scales. This study offers an overarching understanding of N processing in large agricultural streams across different temporal scales.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Sigrid Haande, James E. Sample, and S. Jannicke Moe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3103–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk in a nutrient-impacted lake in southern Norway. Bayesian networks are powerful tools for environmental modelling but are almost exclusively discrete. We demonstrate that a continuous GBN is a promising alternative approach. Predictive performance of the GBN was similar or improved compared to a discrete network, and it was substantially less time-consuming and subjective to develop.
Timothy J. Maguire, Craig A. Stow, and Casey M. Godwin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 903–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of sedimentation in the lowest parts of polders (beels) through controlled flooding with dike breach (tidal river management – TRM) to counterbalance relative sea level rise (RSLR) in 234 beels of SW Bangladesh is determined in this study, using 2D models and multiple regression. Lower beels located closer to the sea have the highest potential. Operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface of most beels by more than 3 times the yearly RSLR.
Sam Anderson and Valentina Radić
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 795–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and interpret a spatiotemporal deep learning model for regional streamflow prediction at more than 200 stream gauge stations in western Canada. We find the novel modelling style to work very well for daily streamflow prediction. Importantly, we interpret model learning to show that it has learned to focus on physically interpretable and physically relevant information, which is a highly desirable quality of machine-learning-based hydrological models.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Liguang Jiang, Silja Westphal Christensen, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6359–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
River roughness and geometry are essential to hydraulic river models. However, measurements of these quantities are not available in most rivers globally. Nevertheless, simultaneous calibration of channel geometric parameters and roughness is difficult as they compensate for each other. This study introduces an alternative approach of parameterization and calibration that reduces parameter correlations by combining cross-section geometry and roughness into a conveyance parameter.
Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Javad Sadri, and Ali Nazemi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5193–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow regimes are changing globally particularly in cold regions. We develop a novel algorithm for detecting shifting streamflow regimes using changes in first and second moments of ensemble streamflow features. This algorithm is generic and can be used globally. To showcase its application, we assess alterations in Canadian natural streams from 1966 to 2010 to provide the first temporally consistent, pan-Canadian assessment of change in natural streamflow regimes, coast to coast to coast.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Janie Masse-Dufresne, Florent Barbecot, Paul Baudron, and John Gibson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3731–3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A volume-dependent transient isotopic mass balance model was developed for an artificial lake in Canada, in a context where direct measurements of surface water fluxes are difficult. It revealed that floodwater inputs affected the dynamics of the lake in spring but also significantly influenced the long-term water balance due to temporary subsurface storage of floodwater. Such models are paramount for understanding the vulnerability of lakes to changes in groundwater quantity and quality.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Moritz Feigl, Katharina Lebiedzinski, Mathew Herrnegger, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed machine learning approaches for daily river water temperature prediction, using different data preprocessing methods, six model types, a range of different data inputs and 10 study catchments. By comparing to current state-of-the-art models, we could show a significant improvement of prediction performance of the tested approaches. Furthermore, we could gain insight into the relationships between model types, input data and predicted stream water temperature.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Alex Zavarsky and Lars Duester
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5027–5041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River water temperature is an important parameter for water quality and an important variable for physical, chemical and biological processes. River water is also used as a cooling agent by power plants and production facilities. We study long-term trends in river water temperature and correlate them to meteorological influences and power production or economic indices.
Cheng-Wei Yu, Ben R. Hodges, and Frank Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of bottom slope discontinuity on the stability of numerical solutions for the Saint-Venant equations. A new reference slope concept is proposed to ensure smooth source terms and eliminate potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-sectional flow area and the piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Luca Ziliani, Nicola Surian, Gianluca Botter, and Luca Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although geomorphic recovery is a key issue in many rivers worldwide, controlled floods have been rarely designed using geomorphological criteria. An integrated approach is used to assess the effects of different controlled-flood scenarios in a strongly regulated river. None of the controlled-flood strategies provide significant morphological benefits. Nevertheless, this study represents a significant contribution for the management and restoration of highly disturbed rivers.
Benjamin M. Kraemer, Anton Seimon, Rita Adrian, and Peter B. McIntyre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2593–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Audrey Marescaux, Vincent Thieu, Nathalie Gypens, Marie Silvestre, and Josette Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2379–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers have been recognized as an active part of the carbon cycle where transformations are associated with CO2 outgassing. To understand it, we propose a modeling approach with the biogeochemical model, pyNuts-Riverstrahler. We implemented it on the human-impacted Seine River. Sources of carbon to the river were characterized by field measurements in groundwater and in wastewater. Outgassing was the most important in streams, and peaks were simulated downstream of wastewater treatment effluent.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Qunhui Zhang, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang, Phaedra Budy, Nick Barrett, and Sarah E. Null
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4969–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We improved lake mixing process simulations by applying a vertical mixing scheme, K profile parameterization (KPP), in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The current vertical mixing scheme in CLM requires an arbitrarily enlarged eddy diffusivity to enhance water mixing. The coupled CLM-KPP considers a boundary layer for eddy development. The improved lake model provides an important tool for lake hydrology and ecosystem studies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Jérémy Lepesqueur, Renaud Hostache, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Emmanuelle Montargès-Pelletier, and Christophe Hissler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article evaluates the influence of sediment representation in a sediment transport model. A short-term simulation is used to assess how far changing the sediment characteristics in the modelling experiment changes riverbed evolution and sediment redistribution during a small flood event. The study shows in particular that representing sediment with extended grain-size and grain-density distributions allows for improving model accuracy and performances.
Annie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, and Sandhya Patidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ecological impact of changes in river flow may be explored through the simulation of ecologically relevant flow indicators. Traditional approaches to model parameterization are not well-suited for this. To this end, this paper considers the ability of a
modified covariance approach, applied to five hydrologically diverse catchments. An overall improvement in consistency is observed, whilst timing and rate of change represent the best and worst replicated indicators respectively.
Jeffrey J. Richardson, Christian E. Torgersen, and L. Monika Moskal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2813–2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High stream temperatures can be detrimental to the survival of aquatic species such as endangered salmon. Stream temperatures can be reduced by shade provided by trees in riparian areas. Two lidar-based methods were effective at assessing stream shading. These methods can be used in place of expensive field measurements.
Dongsheng Su, Xiuqing Hu, Lijuan Wen, Shihua Lyu, Xiaoqing Gao, Lin Zhao, Zhaoguo Li, Juan Du, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2093–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, freshwater lake model simulation results, verified by satellite and buoy observation data, were used to quantify recent climate change effects on the thermal regime of the largest lake in China. Results indicate that the FLake model can reproduce the lake thermal pattern nicely. The lake surface is warming, while the lake bottom has no significant trend. Climate change also caused an earlier ice-off and later ice-on, leading to an obvious change in the energy balance of the lake.
Chloé Poulin, Bruno Hamelin, Christine Vallet-Coulomb, Guinbe Amngar, Bichara Loukman, Jean-François Cretaux, Jean-Claude Doumnang, Abdallah Mahamat Nour, Guillemette Menot, Florence Sylvestre, and Pierre Deschamps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1705–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the water budget of two intertropical lake systems in the absence of long-term hydrological monitoring. By coupling dry season isotopic data with satellite imagery, we were able to provide quantitative constrains on the hydrological balance and show that these two lake systems can be considered miniature analogs of Lake Chad, making them important targets in the future setup of any large-scale program on the hydro-climatic evolution in the Sahel region.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Ben R. Hodges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new derivation of the equations for one-dimensional open-channel flow in rivers and storm drainage systems has been developed. The new approach solves some long-standing problems for obtaining well-behaved solutions with conservation forms of the equations. This research was motivated by the need for highly accurate models of large-scale river networks and the storm drainage systems in megacities. Such models are difficult to create with existing equation forms.
Ramiro Pillco Zolá, Lars Bengtsson, Ronny Berndtsson, Belen Martí-Cardona, Frederic Satgé, Franck Timouk, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Luis Mollericon, Cesar Gamarra, and José Pasapera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 657–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The evaporation was computed at a daily time step and compared with the estimated evaporation using mean monthly meteorological observations. We found that the most reliable method of determining the annual lake evaporation is using the heat balance approach.
Daniel J. Isaak, Charles H. Luce, Gwynne L. Chandler, Dona L. Horan, and Sherry P. Wollrab
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6225–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Description of thermal regimes in flowing waters is key to understanding physical processes and improving bioassessments, but has been limited by sparse data sets. Using a large annual temperature data set from a mountainous area of the western U.S., we explored thermal regimes using principle component analysis. A small number of summary metrics adequately represented most of the variation in this data set given strong temporal coherence among sites.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Maksim Iakunin, Rui Salgado, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5191–5210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs can affect local weather regimes but usually it is difficult to trace and assess it. In this work we used the Meso-NH atmospheric model to study the impact of the Alqueva reservoir, one of the largest artificial lakes in western Europe, located in the southeast of Portugal, on meteorological parameters and the formation of a lake breeze system. The magnitude of this impact as well as the intensity of the breeze are shown in the paper.
Stephanie S. Day, Karen B. Gran, and Chris Paola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3261–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3261-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Permanent gullies are deep steep-sided channels that erode as water falls over the upstream end. Erosion of these features is a concern where people and climate change have altered how water moves over the land. This paper analyzes a set of experiments that were used to determine how changing gully flows impact erosion. We found that while increasing the volume of water will increase erosion, changing the flow rate into gullies will not impact the total erosion, but will alter gully shape.
Aurélien Beaufort, Nicolas Lamouroux, Hervé Pella, Thibault Datry, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3033–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Streams which may stop flowing are poorly gauged. To improve their characterisation, we use an extended network providing monthly visual observations stating whether streams are flowing or not across France. These observations are combined with discharge and groundwater level in models to predict daily regional probability of drying. This approach allows identification of the most impacted regions by flow intermittence and estimation of the probability of drying dynamics over the last 27 years.
Teodor Petrut, Thomas Geay, Cédric Gervaise, Philippe Belleudy, and Sebastien Zanker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 767–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-767-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our interest is focused on developing the hydrophone technique to estimate the size of particles transported in rivers. The analytic spectral solution of the impact between rigid particles is used to model the power spectrum of a sediment mixture, or the sediment-generated noise. Estimations of grain size distributions in the Isère River using real measured spectra are successfully validated by the physical sampling techniques. Moreover, the grain size sorting process is revealed by acoustics.
Heidelinde Trimmel, Philipp Weihs, David Leidinger, Herbert Formayer, Gerda Kalny, and Andreas Melcher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 437–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-437-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In eastern Austria, where air temperature rise is double that recorded globally, stream temperatures of a human-impacted river were simulated during heat waves, as calculated by regional climate models until 2100. An increase of up to 3 °C was predicted – thus exceeding thresholds of resident cold-adapted species. Vegetation management scenarios showed that adding vegetation can reduce both absolute temperatures and its rate of increase but is not able to fully mitigate the expected rise.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Cited articles
Abbaspour, K. C., Rouholahnejad, E., Vaghefi, S., Srinivasan, R., Yang, H.,
and Kløve, B.: A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for
Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT
model, J. Hydrol., 524, 733–752,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.027, 2015.
Adams, R., Arafat, Y., Eate, V., Grace, M. R., Saffarpour, S., Weatherley,
A. J., and Western, A. W.: A catchment study of sources and sinks of
nutrients and sediments in south-east Australia, J. Hydrol., 515,
166–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.034, 2014.
Ahearn, D. S., Sheibley, R. W., Dahlgren, R. A., and Keller, K. E.: Temporal
dynamics of stream water chemistry in the last free-flowing river draining
the western Sierra Nevada, California, J. Hydrol., 295, 47–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.02.016, 2004.
Ai, L., Shi, Z. H., Yin, W., and Huang, X.: Spatial and seasonal patterns in
stream water contamination across mountainous watersheds: Linkage with
landscape characteristics, J. Hydrol., 523, 398–408,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.082, 2015.
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE
T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723, 1974.
Akritas, M. G., Murphy, S. A., and Lavalley, M. P.: The Theil-Sen estimator
with doubly censored data and applications to astronomy, J.
Am. Stat. Assoc., 90, 170–177, 1995.
Ali, G., Wilson, H., Elliott, J., Penner, A., Haque, A., Ross, C., and
Rabie, M.: Phosphorus export dynamics and hydrobiogeochemical controls
across gradients of scale, topography and human impact, Hydrol.
Process., 31, 3130–3145, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11258, 2017.
Arheimer, B. and Lidén, R.: Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from agricultural catchments–influence of spatial and temporal variables, J. Hydrol., 227, 140–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00177-8, 2000.
Australian Water Technologies: Victorian water quality monitoring network
and state biological monitoring programme manual of procedures, Australian
Water Technologies, 68 Ricketts Rd, Mt Waverley VIC 3149, 1999.
Bailey, R. T. and Ahmadi, M.: Spatial and temporal variability of in-stream
water quality parameter influence on dissolved oxygen and nitrate within a
regional stream network, Ecol. Model., 277, 87–96, 2014.
Bende-Michl, U. and Hairsine, P. B.: A systematic approach to choosing an
automated nutrient analyser for river monitoring, J. Environ.
Monitor., 12, 127–134, 2010.
Bond, N. R., Lake, P. S., and Arthington, A. H.: The impacts of drought on
freshwater ecosystems: an Australian perspective, Hydrobiologia, 600, 3–16,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-008-9326-z, 2008.
Borsuk, M. E., Higdon, D., Stow, C. A., and Reckhow, K. H.: A Bayesian
hierarchical model to predict benthic oxygen demand from organic matter
loading in estuaries and coastal zones, Ecol. Model., 143, 165–181,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00328-3, 2001.
Bouza-Deaño, R., Ternero-Rodríguez, M., and Fernández-Espinosa,
A. J.: Trend study and assessment of surface water quality in the Ebro River
(Spain), J. Hydrol., 361, 227–239,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.048, 2008.
Box, G. E. and Cox, D. R.: An analysis of transformations, J.
Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 26, 211–243, 1964.
Bureau of Meteorology: Geofabric V2, available at: ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/geofabric/ (last access: 21 September 2016), 2012.
Bureau of Rural Sciences: 2005/06 Land use of Australia, version 4, available at: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/aclump/land-use/data-download (last access: 1 September 2016), 2010.
Burt, T. P., Worrall, F., Howden, N. J. K., and Anderson, M. G.: Shifts in
discharge-concentration relationships as a small catchment recover from
severe drought, Hydrol. Process., 29, 498–507, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10169,
2015.
Carey, R. O. and Migliaccio, K. W.: Contribution of wastewater treatment
plant effluents to nutrient dynamics in aquatic systems: a review, Environ
Manage., 44, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9309-5, 2009.
Caruso, B. S.: Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme low flows and
effects on stream ecosystems in Otago, New Zealand, J. Hydrol.,
257, 115–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00546-7,
2002.
Chang, H.: Spatial analysis of water quality trends in the Han River basin,
South Korea, Water Res., 42, 3285–3304,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2008.04.006, 2008.
Clark, J. S.: Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians, Ecol.
Lett., 8, 2–14, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00702.x, 2005.
Costelloe, J. F., Grayson, R. B., McMahon, T. A., and Argent, R. M.: Spatial
and temporal variability of water salinity in an ephemeral, arid-zone river,
central Australia, Hydrol. Process., 19, 3147–3166, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5837,
2005.
DeFries, R. and Eshleman, K. N.: Land-use change and hydrologic processes:
a major focus for the future, Hydrol. Process., 18, 2183–2186,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5584, 2004.
Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Victoria: Victorian water
measurement information system, available at: http://data.water.vic.gov.au/ (last access: 1 January 2017), 2016.
Eidenshink, J. C.: The 1990 Conterminous U.S. AVHRR Data Set,
Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 58, 809–813, 1992.
Fraser, A. I., Harrod, T. R., and Haygarth, P. M.: The effect of rainfall
intensity on soil erosion and particulate phosphorus transfer from arable
soils, Water Sci. Technol., 39, 41–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1223(99)00316-9, 1999.
Frost, A. J., Ramchurn, A., and Smith, A.: The bureau's operational AWRA
landscape (AWRA-L) Model, Bureau of Meteorology Technical Report, Bureau of Meteorology, 2016.
Fu, B., Merritt, W. S., Croke, B. F. W., Weber, T., and Jakeman, A. J.: A
review of catchment-scale water quality and erosion models and a synthesis
of future prospects, Environ. Modell. Softw., 114, 75–97,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.12.008, 2018.
Gelman, A.: Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical
models (comment on article by Browne and Draper), Bayesian Anal., 1,
515–534, https://doi.org/10.1214/06-BA117A, 2006.
Geoscience Australia: Dams and water storages, available at: https://koordinates.com/layer/739-australian-dams-and-water-storages/ (last access: 1 September 2016), 2004.
Geoscience Australia: Environmental Attributes Dataset, available at: http://www.ga.gov.au (last access: 5 February 2016), 2011.
Giri, S. and Qiu, Z.: Understanding the relationship of land uses and water
quality in Twenty First Century: A review, J. Environ.
Manage., 173, 41–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.02.029, 2016.
Granger, S. J., Bol, R., Anthony, S., Owens, P. N., White, S. M., and
Haygarth, P. M.: Chapter 3 – Towards a Holistic Classification of Diffuse
Agricultural Water Pollution from Intensively Managed Grasslands on Heavy
Soils, in: Advances in Agronomy, Academic Press, 83–115, 2010.
Guo, D., Lintern, A., Webb, J. A., Ryu, D., Liu, S., Bende-Michl, U., Leahy,
P., Wilson, P., and Western, A. W.: Key Factors Affecting Temporal
Variability in Stream Water Quality, Water Resour. Res., 55, 112–129, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr023370, 2019.
Heathwaite, A. L.: Multiple stressors on water availability at global to
catchment scales: understanding human impact on nutrient cycles to protect
water quality and water availability in the long term, Freshwater Biol.,
55, 241–257, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02368.x, 2010.
Hirsch, R. M., Alexander, R. B., and Smith, R. A.: Selection of methods for
the detection and estimation of trends in water quality, Water Resour.
Res., 27, 803–813, https://doi.org/10.1029/91wr00259, 1991.
Hrachowitz, M., Benettin, P., van Breukelen, B. M., Fovet, O., Howden, N. J.
K., Ruiz, L., van der Velde, Y., and Wade, A. J.: Transit times – the link
between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale, Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3, 629–657, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1155, 2016.
Jarvie, H. P., Withers, J. A., and Neal, C.: Review of robust measurement of phosphorus in river water: sampling, storage, fractionation and sensitivity, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 113–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-6-113-2002, 2002.
Kingsford, R. T., Walker, K. F., Lester, R. E., Young, W. J., Fairweather,
P. G., Sammut, J., and Geddes, M. C.: A Ramsar wetland in crisis – the
Coorong, Lower Lakes and Murray Mouth, Australia, Mar. Freshwater
Res., 62, 255–265, https://doi.org/10.1071/MF09315, 2011.
Kirchner, J. W., Feng, X., Neal, C., and Robson, A. J.: The fine structure of water-quality dynamics: the (high-frequency) wave of the future, Hydrol. Process., 18, 1353–1359, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5537, 2004.
Kisi, O. and Parmar, K. S.: Application of least square support vector
machine and multivariate adaptive regression spline models in long term
prediction of river water pollution, J. Hydrol., 534, 104–112,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.014, 2016.
Kurunç, A., Yürekli, K., and Çevik, O.: Performance of two
stochastic approaches for forecasting water quality and streamflow data from
Yeşilιrmak River, Turkey, Environ. Modell. Softw.,
20, 1195–1200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.11.001,
2005.
Larned, S. T., Scarsbrook, M. R., Snelder, T. H., Norton, N. J., and Biggs, B. J. F.: Water quality in low‐elevation streams and rivers of New Zealand: Recent state and trends in contrasting land‐cover classes, New Zeal. J. Mar. Fresh., 38, 347–366, https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2004.9517243, 2004.
Lannergård, E. E., Ledesma, J. L., Fölster, J., and Futter, M. N.:
An evaluation of high frequency turbidity as a proxy for riverine total
phosphorus concentrations, Sci. Total Environ., 651, 103–113,
2019.
Leblanc, M., Tweed, S., Van Dijk, A., and Timbal, B.: A review of historic
and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin, Global
Planet. Chang., 80–81, 226–246,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.012, 2012.
Lintern, A., Webb, J. A., Ryu, D., Liu, S., Bende-Michl, U., Waters, D.,
Leahy, P., Wilson, P., and Western, A. W.: Key factors influencing
differences in stream water quality across space, Wiley Interdisciplinary
Reviews: Water, 5, e1260, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1260, 2018a.
Lintern, A., Webb, J. A., Ryu, D., Liu, S., Waters, D., Leahy, P.,
Bende-Michl, U., and Western, A. W.: What Are the Key Catchment
Characteristics Affecting Spatial Differences in Riverine Water Quality?,
Water Resour. Res., 54, 7252–7272, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022172, 2018b.
Luca Scrucca: Package “GA”, The Comprehensive R Archive Network, available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GA/index.html (last access: 1 November 2018), 2019.
May, R., Dandy, G., and Maier, H.: Review of input variable selection
methods for artificial neural networks, in: Artificial neural
networks-methodological advances and biomedical applications, InTech, 2011.
Mellander, P.-E., Jordan, P., Shore, M., Melland, A. R., and Shortle, G.:
Flow paths and phosphorus transfer pathways in two agricultural streams with
contrasting flow controls, Hydrol. Process., 29, 3504–3518,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10415, 2015.
Meybeck, M. and Helmer, R.: The quality of rivers: From pristine stage to
global pollution, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 75,
283–309, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(89)90191-0, 1989.
Miller, C., Magdalina, A., Willows, R. I., Bowman, A. W., Scott, E. M., Lee,
D., Burgess, C., Pope, L., Pannullo, F., and Haggarty, R.: Spatiotemporal
statistical modelling of long-term change in river nutrient concentrations
in England & Wales, Sci. Total Environ., 466–467, 914–923,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.113, 2014.
Moatar, F., Abbott, B. W., Minaudo, C., Curie, F., and Pinay, G.: Elemental
properties, hydrology, and biology interact to shape concentration-discharge
curves for carbon, nutrients, sediment, and major ions, Water Resour.
Res., 53, 1270–1287, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019635, 2017.
Mosley, L. M.: Drought impacts on the water quality of freshwater systems;
review and integration, Earth-Sci. Rev., 140, 203–214,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.11.010, 2015.
Murdoch, P. S., Baron, J. S., and Miller, T. L.: POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE-WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA, J.
Am. Water Resour. As., 36, 347–366, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04273.x, 2000.
Musolff, A., Schmidt, C., Selle, B., and Fleckenstein, J. H.: Catchment
controls on solute export, Adv. Water Resour., 86, 133–146,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.09.026, 2015.
NASA LP DAAC: MOD13A3: MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 1 km
V005, available at: https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod13a3v006/, last access: 16 August 2017.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Onderka, M., Wrede, S., Rodný, M., Pfister, L., Hoffmann, L., and Krein,
A.: Hydrogeologic and landscape controls of dissolved inorganic nitrogen
(DIN) and dissolved silica (DSi) fluxes in heterogeneous catchments, J. Hydrol., 450–451, 36–47,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.035, 2012.
Outram, F. N., Lloyd, C. E. M., Jonczyk, J., Benskin, C. McW. H., Grant, F., Perks, M. T., Deasy, C., Burke, S. P., Collins, A. L., Freer, J., Haygarth, P. M., Hiscock, K. M., Johnes, P. J., and Lovett, A. L.: High-frequency monitoring of nitrogen and phosphorus response in three rural catchments to the end of the 2011–2012 drought in England, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3429–3448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3429-2014, 2014.
Ouyang, W., Hao, F., Skidmore, A. K., and Toxopeus, A. G.: Soil erosion and
sediment yield and their relationships with vegetation cover in upper stream
of the Yellow River, Sci. Total Environ., 409, 396–403,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.10.020, 2010.
Parmar, K. S. and Bhardwaj, R.: Statistical, time series, and fractal
analysis of full stretch of river Yamuna (India) for water quality
management, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 22, 397–414, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-3346-1, 2015.
Pellerin, B. A., Saraceno, J. F., Shanley, J. B., Sebestyen, S. D., Aiken, G. R., Wollheim, W. M., and Bergamaschi, B. A.: Taking the pulse of snowmelt: in situ sensors reveal seasonal, event and diurnal patterns of nitrate and dissolved organic matter variability in an upland forest stream, Biogeochemistry, 108, 183–198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-011-9589-8, 2012.
Pellerin, B. A., Stauffer, B. A., Young, D. A., Sullivan, D. J., Bricker, S.
B., Walbridge, M. R., Clyde Jr., G. A., and Shaw, D. M.: Emerging Tools for
Continuous Nutrient Monitoring Networks: Sensors Advancing Science and Water
Resources Protection, J. Am. Water Resour.
As., 52, 993–1008, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12386, 2016.
Poor, C. J. and McDonnell, J. J.: The effects of land use on stream nitrate
dynamics, J. Hydrol., 332, 54–68,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.022, 2007.
Poudel, D. D., Lee, T., Srinivasan, R., Abbaspour, K., and Jeong, C. Y.:
Assessment of seasonal and spatial variation of surface water quality,
identification of factors associated with water quality variability, and the
modeling of critical nonpoint source pollution areas in an agricultural
watershed, J. Soil Water Conserv., 68, 155–171, https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.68.3.155, 2013.
Poulsen, D. L., Simmons, C. T., Le Galle La Salle, C., and Cox, J. W.:
Assessing catchment-scale spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater and
stream salinity, Hydrogeol. J., 14, 1339–1359, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-006-0065-9, 2006.
Qin, B., Zhu, G., Gao, G., Zhang, Y., Li, W., Paerl, H. W., and Carmichael,
W. W.: A Drinking Water Crisis in Lake Taihu, China: Linkage to Climatic
Variability and Lake Management, Environ. Manage., 45, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9393-6, 2010.
Raupach, M., Briggs, P., Haverd, V., King, E., Paget, M., and Trudinger, C.:
Australian water availability project (AWAP): CSIRO marine and atmospheric
research component: final report for phase 3, 67, 2009.
Raupach, M., Briggs, P., Haverd, V., King, E., Paget, M., and Trudinger, C.:
Australian Water Availability Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research, Canberra, Australia, 2012.
Ren, W., Zhong, Y., Meligrana, J., Anderson, B., Watt, W. E., Chen, J., and
Leung, H.-L.: Urbanization, land use, and water quality in Shanghai:
1947–1996, Environ. Int., 29, 649–659,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-4120(03)00051-5, 2003.
Saft, M., Western, A. W., Zhang, L., Peel, M. C., and Potter, N. J.: The
influence of multiyear drought on the annual rainfall-runoff relationship:
An Australian perspective, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2444–2463,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015348, 2015.
Saft, M., Peel, M. C., Western, A. W., and Zhang, L.: Predicting shifts in
rainfall-runoff partitioning during multiyear drought: Roles of dry period
and catchment characteristics, Water Resour. Res., 52, 9290–9305,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019525, 2016.
Saraceno, J. F., Pellerin, B. A., Downing, B. D., Boss, E., Bachand, P. A. M., and Bergamaschi, B. A.: High-frequency in situ optical measurements during a storm event: Assessing relationships between dissolved organic matter, sediment concentrations, and hydrologic processes, J. Geol. Res., 114, G00F09, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG000989, 2009.
Schwarz, G.: Estimating the dimension of a model, Ann. Stat.,
6, 461–464, 1978.
Sharpley, A. N., Kleinman, P. J. A., McDowell, R. W., Gitau, M., and Bryant,
R. B.: Modeling phosphorus transport in agricultural watersheds: Processes
and possibilities, J. Soil Water Conserv., 57, 425–439,
2002.
Smith, A. P., Western, A. W., and Hannah, M. C.: Linking water quality
trends with land use intensification in dairy farming catchments, J. Hydrol., 476, 1–12, 2013.
Smith, R. A., Alexander, R. B., and Wolman, M. G.: Water-Quality Trends in
the Nation's Rivers, Science, 235, 1607–1615, 1987.
Smyth, A. R., Thompson, S. P., Siporin, K. N., Gardner, W. S., McCarthy, M.
J., and Piehler, M. F.: Assessing nitrogen dynamics throughout the estuarine
landscape, Estuar. Coasts, 36, 44–55, 2013.
Stan Development Team: RStan: the R interface to Stan. R package version
2.18.1, 2018.
Stan Reference Manual Version 2.20: available at:
https://mc-stan.org/docs/2_20/reference-manual-2_20.pdf, last access: 28 September 2019.
Sturtz, S., Ligges, U., and Gelman, A. E.: R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R, 2005.
Sueker, J. K., Clow, D. W., Ryan, J. N., and Jarrett, R. D.: Effect of basin
physical characteristics on solute fluxes in nine alpine/subalpine basins,
Colorado, USA, Hydrol. Process., 15, 2749–2769, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.265, 2001.
Tang, Z., Engel, B. A., Pijanowski, B. C., and Lim, K. J.: Forecasting land
use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale, J.
Environ. Manage., 76, 35–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.01.006, 2005.
Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network: Soil and landscape grid of
Australia, available at: http://www.clw.csiro.au/aclep/soilandlandscapegrid/index.html, last access: 7 July 2016.
Tian, J. R. and Zhou, P. J.: Phosphorus fractions of floodplain sediments
and phosphorus exchange on the sediment–water interface in the lower
reaches of the Han River in China, Ecol. Eng., 30, 264–270,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2007.01.006, 2007.
Tramblay, Y., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., St-Hilaire, A., and Poulin, J.: Regional
estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed
characteristics, J. Hydrol., 380, 305–317,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.006, 2010.
van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Beck, H. E., Crosbie, R. S., de Jeu, R. A. M., Liu,
Y. Y., Podger, G. M., Timbal, B., and Viney, N. R.: The Millennium Drought
in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and
implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society, Water
Resour. Res., 49, 1040–1057, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20123, 2013.
van Vliet, M. T. H. and Zwolsman, J. J. G.: Impact of summer droughts on
the water quality of the Meuse river, J. Hydrol., 353, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.001, 2008.
Varanka, S., Hjort, J., and Luoto, M.: Geomorphological factors predict
water quality in boreal rivers, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 40,
1989–1999, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3601, 2015.
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D.,
Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A.,
Liermann, C. R., and Davies, P. M.: Global threats to human water security
and river biodiversity, Nature, 467, , 555, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440,
2010.
Wang, Q. J. and Robertson, D. E.: Multisite probabilistic forecasting of
seasonal flows for streams with zero value occurrences, Water Resour.
Res., 47, W02546, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr009333, 2011.
Wang, Q. J., Shrestha, D. L., Robertson, D. E., and Pokhrel, P.: A log-sinh
transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization, Water
Resour. Res., 48, W05514, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010973, 2012.
Webb, J. A. and King, L. E.: A Bayesian hierarchical trend analysis finds
strong evidence for large-scale temporal declines in stream ecological
condition around Melbourne, Australia, Ecography, 32, 215–225,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05686.x, 2009.
Whitworth, K. L., Baldwin, D. S., and Kerr, J. L.: Drought, floods and water
quality: Drivers of a severe hypoxic blackwater event in a major river
system (the southern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia), J. Hydrol., 450–451, 190–198,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.057, 2012.
Zhang, Q.: Synthesis of nutrient and sediment export patterns in the
Chesapeake Bay watershed: Complex and non-stationary concentration-discharge
relationships, Sci. Total Environ., 618, 1268–1283,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.221, 2018.
Zhang, Q. and Ball, W. P.: Improving riverine constituent concentration and
flux estimation by accounting for antecedent discharge conditions, J. Hydrol., 547, 387–402,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.052, 2017.
Zhao, T., Schepen, A., and Wang, Q. J.: Ensemble forecasting of sub-seasonal
to seasonal streamflow by a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach,
J. Hydrol., 541, 839–849,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.040, 2016.
Zhou, T., Wu, J., and Peng, S.: Assessing the effects of landscape pattern
on river water quality at multiple scales: A case study of the Dongjiang
River watershed, China, Ecol. Indic., 23, 166–175,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.03.013, 2012.
Short summary
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream water quality across Victoria, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which identified the key controls of water quality variations from long-term records. These models are helpful to identify likely future changes in water quality and, in turn, provide critical information for developing management strategies to improve stream water quality.
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream...
