Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2020
| 13 Oct 2020
Assessing global water mass transfers from continents to oceans over the period 1948–2016
Denise Cáceres
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Ben Marzeion
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Jan Hendrik Malles
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht
Institut für Planetare Geodäsie, Technische Universität
Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Hannes Müller Schmied
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Petra Döll
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
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Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
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Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
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Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
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Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
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Ben Marzeion
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Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
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Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
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We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Eklavyya Popat and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1337–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, 2021
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Two drought hazard indices are presented that combine drought deficit and anomaly aspects: one for soil moisture drought (SMDAI) where we simplified the DSI and the other for streamflow drought (QDAI), which is to our knowledge the first ever deficit anomaly drought index including surface water demand. Both indices are tested at the global scale with WaterGAP 2.2d outputs, providing more differentiated spatial and temporal patterns distinguishing the actual degree of respective drought hazard.
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
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The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Denise Cáceres, Stephanie Eisner, Martina Flörke, Claudia Herbert, Christoph Niemann, Thedini Asali Peiris, Eklavyya Popat, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Maike Schumacher, Somayeh Shadkam, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1037–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, 2021
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In a globalized world with large flows of virtual water between river basins and international responsibilities for the sustainable development of the Earth system and its inhabitants, quantitative estimates of water flows and storages and of water demand by humans are required. Global hydrological models such as WaterGAP are developed to provide this information. Here we present a thorough description, evaluation and application examples of the most recent model version, WaterGAP v2.2d.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
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Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Marco Cucchi, Graham P. Weedon, Alessandro Amici, Nicolas Bellouin, Stefan Lange, Hannes Müller Schmied, Hans Hersbach, and Carlo Buontempo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020
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WFDE5 is a novel meteorological forcing dataset for running land surface and global hydrological models. It has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. It is publicly available, along with its source code, through the C3S Climate Data Store at ECMWF. Results of the evaluations described in the paper highlight the benefits of using WFDE5 compared to both ERA5 and its predecessor WFDEI.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
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Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Shahab Araghinejad, Mohammad J. Tourian, Kumars Ebrahimi, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1939–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, 2020
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This paper uses a multi-objective approach for calibrating the WGHM model to determine the role of human water use and climate variations in the recent loss of water storage in Lake Urmia basin, Iran. We found that even without human water use Lake Urmia would not have recovered from the significant loss of lake water volume caused by the drought year 2008.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, 2020
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The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
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To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Jonathan D. Herman, Alexander Wachholz, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4561–4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, 2019
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Recently, the first global groundwater models were developed to better understand surface-water–groundwater interactions and human water use impacts. However, the reliability of model outputs is limited by a lack of data as well as model assumptions required due to the necessarily coarse spatial resolution. In this study we present the first global maps of model sensitivity according to their parameterization and build a foundation to improve datasets, model design, and model understanding.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
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We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Tim Trautmann, Denise Cáceres, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, 2019
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G³M is a new global groundwater model (http://globalgroundwatermodel.org) that simulates lateral and vertical flows as well as exchanges with surface water bodies like rivers, lakes, and wetlands for the whole globe except Antarctica and Greenland. The newly developed model framework enables an efficient integration into established global hydrological models. This paper presents the G³M concept and specific model design decisions together with first results under a naturalized equilibrium.
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
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Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
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Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
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This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Tingju Zhu, Petra Döll, Hannes Müller Schmied, Claudia Ringler, and Mark W. Rosegrant
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The global hydrological model IGHM was developed to simulate water availability over global land areas month by month. The simulated water availability is for analyzing irrigation water supply and crop production in a global water and food projections model, IMPACT. Water availability simulated by another global hydrological model, WGHM, was used to determine parameter values in IGHM. This paper describes the structure of IGHM, the method of its parameter determination, and its performance.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
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We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
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Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
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The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Proc. IAHS, 374, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, 2016
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We analyzed simulated water balance components on global and continental scale as impacted by the uncertainty of climate forcing datasets. On average, around 62 % of precipitation on global land area evapotranspires and 38 % is discharge to oceans and inland sinks. Human water use increased during the 20th century by a factor of 5. Uncertainty of precipitation variable has most impact on model results, followed by shortwave downward radiation. Model calibration reduces this uncertainty.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, 2016
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The assessment of water balance components of the global land surface by means of hydrological models is affected by large uncertainties, in particular related to meteorological forcing. We analyze the effect of five state-of-the-art forcings on water balance components at different spatial and temporal scales modeled with WaterGAP. Furthermore, the dominant effect (precipitation/human alteration) for long-term changes in river discharge is assessed.
B. Marzeion, P. W. Leclercq, J. G. Cogley, and A. H. Jarosch
The Cryosphere, 9, 2399–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, 2015
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We show that estimates of global glacier mass change during the 20th century, obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other and also with an estimate for the years 2003-2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist on regional scales.
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
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Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015
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We developed the historical irrigation data set (HID) depicting the spatio-temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5arcmin resolution.
The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on two historical maps for 1910 and 1960.
Global AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge decreased from 1900 to 1950.
M. Hofer, B. Marzeion, and T. Mölg
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, 2015
H. Müller Schmied, S. Eisner, D. Franz, M. Wattenbach, F. T. Portmann, M. Flörke, and P. Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014
H. Hoff, P. Döll, M. Fader, D. Gerten, S. Hauser, and S. Siebert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, 2014
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and J. M. Gregory
The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014
W. Gurgiser, B. Marzeion, L. Nicholson, M. Ortner, and G. Kaser
The Cryosphere, 7, 1787–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Drivers of global irrigation expansion: the role of discrete global grid choice
Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions
Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020
Global-scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling
Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Unveiling hydrological dynamics in data-scarce regions: experiences from the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin
Technical note: Comparing three different methods for allocating river points to coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid cells
Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model
The effect of climate change on the simulated streamflow of six Canadian rivers based on the CanRCM4 regional climate model
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of WGHM in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate
Diagnosing modeling errors in global terrestrial water storage interannual variability
Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent
Poor correlation between large-scale environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity: implications for water resource management and the freshwater planetary boundary
Accuracy of five ground heat flux empirical simulation methods in the surface-energy-balance-based remote-sensing evapotranspiration models
Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff
Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data
Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh
Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States
Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes
Inundation prediction in tropical wetlands from JULES-CaMa-Flood global land surface simulations
Soil moisture estimation in South Asia via assimilation of SMAP retrievals
Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle
The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations
Large-scale sensitivities of groundwater and surface water to groundwater withdrawal
A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models
A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods
Bright and blind spots of water research in Latin America and the Caribbean
Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters
Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management
Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling
Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review
Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River basin under climate change
Evaluation of 18 satellite- and model-based soil moisture products using in situ measurements from 826 sensors
The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach
Sophie Wagner, Fabian Stenzel, Tobias Krueger, and Jana de Wiljes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, 2024
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Statistical models that explain global irrigation rely on location-referenced data. Traditionally, a system based on longitude and latitude lines is chosen. However, this introduces bias to the analysis due to the Earth's curvature. We propose using a system based on hexagonal grid cells that allows for distortion-free representation of the data. We show that this increases the model's accuracy by 28 % and identify biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of historical global irrigation expansion.
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024, 2024
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Future climate projections suggest that climate change will impact groundwater recharge, with its exact effects being uncertain due to incomplete understanding of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and recharge relations. We studied the effects of changes in the average, spread, and frequency of extreme events of rainfall and evapotranspiration on groundwater recharge. We found that increasing or decreasing the potential evaporation has the most dominant effect on groundwater recharge.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
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Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Omar V. Müller, Patrick C. McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2179–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, 2024
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This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
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We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, 2024
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The study presents a pioneering comprehensive integrated approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, we offer a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, 2024
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This work was performed in order to precisely address a point that is often neglected by hydrologists: the allocation of points located on a river network to grid cells, which is often a mandatory step for hydrological modelling.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
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Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-182, 2024
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This study is likely the first Canada-wide assessment of climate change impact on the hydro-climatology of its major river basins. It finds that the precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia Rivers which are located in the milder Pacific north-western region.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
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Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
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Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work, we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affects weather prediction.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Xiufeng He, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4551–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, 2023
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Using evidence from meteorological stations, this study assessed the climatic, hydrological, and ecological aridity changes in global drylands and their associated mechanisms. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. This highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
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This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Petra Döll, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Fabrice Papa, and Andreas Güntner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, 2023
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We calibrate a global hydrological model using multiple observations to analyse the benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration. We found such an approach to be very important for understanding the real-world system. However, some observations are very essential to the system, in particular streamflow. We also showed uncertainties in the calibration results, which is often useful for making informed decisions. We emphasis to consider observation uncertainty in model calibration.
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
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The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission enabled the quantification of water mass redistributions from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of GRACE satellite data shows here that slow changes in terrestrial water storage occurring over a few years to a decade are severely underestimated by global hydrological models. Several sources of errors may explain such biases, likely including the inaccurate representation of groundwater storage changes.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
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Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
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The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
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This study contributes to improvements in the model characterization of water and energy fluxes. The results show that multi-objective autocalibration in combination with mathematical regularization is a powerful tool to improve land surface models. Using the direct measurement of turbulent fluxes as the target variable, parameter optimization matches simulations and observations of latent heat, whereas sensible heat is clearly biased.
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, 2023
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Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
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We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
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To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
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The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Zhaofei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, 2022
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Ground heat flux (G) accounts for a significant fraction of the surface energy balance (SEB), but there is insufficient research on these models compared with other flux. The accuracy of G simulation methods in the SEB-based remote sensing evapotranspiration models is evaluated. Results show that the accuracy of each method varied significantly at different sites and at half-hour intervals. Further improvement of G simulations is recommended for the remote sensing evapotranspiration modelers.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
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We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
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A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
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Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
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In this study, we use three models to forecast river streamflow operationally for 13 months (September 2020 to October 2021) at 10 gauges in the western US. The first model is a state-of-the-art physics-based streamflow model (GloFAS). The second applies a bias-correction technique to GloFAS. The third is a type of neural network (an LSTM). We find that all three are capable of producing skilful forecasts but that the LSTM performs the best, with skilful 5 d forecasts at nine stations.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Yu Tian, Denghua Yan, Weixin Xu, Huayang Cai, Jiabiao Wang, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4233–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, 2022
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This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection. Specifically, the intersection operation of the coefficient of determination derives the overlapping information for GCM forecasts and the Niño3.4 index, and then the difference operation determines the differing information in GCM forecasts (Niño3.4 index) from the Niño3.4 index (GCM forecasts).
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
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Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
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Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Jawairia A. Ahmad, Barton A. Forman, and Sujay V. Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2221–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, 2022
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Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data-scarce regions.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
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Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
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We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Andreas Güntner, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1089–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, 2022
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We assess the effect of how vegetation is defined in a global hydrological model on the composition of total water storage (TWS). We compare two experiments, one with globally uniform and one with vegetation parameters that vary in space and time. While both experiments are constrained against observational data, we found a drastic change in the partitioning of TWS, highlighting the important role of the interaction between groundwater–soil moisture–vegetation in understanding TWS variations.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
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We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
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Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
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Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Alyssa J. DeVincentis, Hervé Guillon, Romina Díaz Gómez, Noelle K. Patterson, Francine van den Brandeler, Arthur Koehl, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Laura E. Garza-Díaz, Jennifer Gamez-Rodríguez, Erfan Goharian, and Samuel Sandoval Solis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4631–4650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, 2021
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Latin America and the Caribbean face many water-related stresses which are expected to worsen with climate change. To assess the vulnerability, we reviewed over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the regional landscape. Results reveal that the region’s inherent vulnerability is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on one country (Brazil).
Michiel Maertens, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sebastian Apers, Sujay V. Kumar, and Sarith P. P. Mahanama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4099–4125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, 2021
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In this study, we simulated the water balance over the South American Dry Chaco and assessed the impact of land cover changes thereon using three different land surface models. Our simulations indicated that different models result in a different partitioning of the total water budget, but all showed an increase in soil moisture and percolation over the deforested areas. We also found that, relative to independent data, no specific land surface model is significantly better than another.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water, energy and carbon cycle on land. Reliable ET estimates are key to understand droughts and flooding. We develop a new ET dataset, DOLCE V3, by merging multiple global ET datasets, and we show that it matches ET observations better and hence is more reliable than its parent datasets. Next, we use DOLCE V3 to examine recent changes in ET and find that ET has increased over most of the land, decreased in some regions, and has not changed in some other regions
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021
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We investigate how deep learning models use different meteorological data sets in the task of (regional) rainfall–runoff modeling. We show that performance can be significantly improved when using different data products as input and further show how the model learns to combine those meteorological input differently across time and space. The results are carefully benchmarked against classical approaches, showing the supremacy of the presented approach.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
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Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, and Richard B. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1365–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, 2021
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Amid growing interest in using large-scale hydrological models for flood and drought monitoring and forecasting, it is important to evaluate common assumptions these models make. We investigated the representation of reservoirs as separate (non-coordinated) infrastructure. We found that not appropriately representing coordination and control processes can lead a hydrological model to simulate flood and drought events that would not occur given the coordinated emergency response in the basin.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
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Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Laura E. Queen, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, 2021
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Using a large ensemble of simulated flows throughout the northwestern USA, we compare daily flood statistics in the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–1999) periods and find that nearly all locations will experience an increase in flood magnitudes. The flood season expands significantly in many currently snow-dominant rivers, moving from only spring to both winter and spring. These results, properly extended, may help inform flood risk management and negotiations of the Columbia River Treaty.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Yared Abayneh Abebe, Amineh Ghorbani, Igor Nikolic, Natasa Manojlovic, Angelika Gruhn, and Zoran Vojinovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020
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The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for Hamburg, Germany. It explores residents’ adaptation behaviour in relation to flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. We found that unique trajectories of adaptation behaviour emerge from different flood event series. Providing subsidies improves adaptation behaviour in the long run. The coupled modelling technique allows the role of individual measures in flood risk management to be examined.
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Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on...
