Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015
Research article
 | 
08 Oct 2015
Research article |  | 08 Oct 2015

Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward

Related authors

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project
Toby R. Marthews, Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, 2020
Short summary
The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models
Anouk I. Gevaert, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4649–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Aerts, J. C. J. H., Kriek, M., and Schepel, M.: STREAM (Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environment and Analysis of Management Options): "Set Up and Requirements.", Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 24, 591–595, 1999.
Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Siebert, S.: Global change and global scenarios of water use and availability: An Application of WaterGAP1.0, University of Kassel, Germany, p. 47, 1997.
Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as-usual" conditions, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 339–348, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.339.45278, 2003.
Alcamo, J., Flörke, M., and Märker, M.: Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socioeconomic and climatic changes, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247, 2007.
Amarasekera, K. N., Lee, R. F., Williams, E. R., and Eltahir, E. A. B.: ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers, J. Hydrol., 200, 24–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03340-9, 1997.
Download
Short summary
Freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks, partially driven by climate variability. Here we present a first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the most dominant climate variability signal. Given the found correlations, covering a large share of the global land area, and seen the developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we show that there is large potential for ENSO-based risk reduction.