Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2393-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2393-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jul 2013
Research article |
| 01 Jul 2013
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity
N. Hanasaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
S. Fujimori
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
T. Yamamoto
Nagaoka National College of Technology, Nagaoka, Japan
S. Yoshikawa
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Y. Masaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Y. Hijioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
M. Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Y. Kanamori
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
T. Masui
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
K. Takahashi
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
S. Kanae
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Related authors
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms the claims raised by historians that the Eastward Diversion Project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted four centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the Capitol Edo (Tokyo) using inland navigation. We reconstructed six historical river maps and indirectly validated the historical simulations with reachable ancient river ports via increased low-flow water levels.
Kedar Otta, Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon N. Gosling, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs play important roles in hydrology and water resources management globally and are incorporated into many Global Hydrological Models. Their simulations are, however, poorly validated due to the lack of available long-term in-situ observation data globally. Here we investigated the applicability of the latest satellite-based reservoir storage estimations in the contiguous US. We found that those products are useful for validating reservoir storage simulations when they are normalized.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan, Adisorn Champathong, Thada Sukhapunnaphan, Shinichiro Nakamura, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2541–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2541-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The modelling of diversion canals using hydrological models is important because they play crucial roles in water management. Therefore, we developed a simplified canal diversion scheme and implemented it into the H08 global hydrological model. The developed diversion scheme was validated in the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand. Region-specific validation results revealed that the H08 model with the diversion scheme could effectively simulate the observed flood diversion pattern in the basin.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Chan Park, Makoto Tamura, and Yasuaki Hijioka
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3121–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To simplify calculating economic impacts of climate change, statistical methods called emulators are developed and evaluated. There are trade-offs between model complexity and emulation performance. Aggregated economic impacts can be approximated by relatively simple emulators, but complex emulators are necessary to accommodate finer-scale economic impacts.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, and Shinichiro Fujimori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6077–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6077-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6077-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Incorporating bioenergy crops into the well-established global hydrological models is seldom seen today. Here, we successfully enhance a state-of-the-art global hydrological model H08 to simulate bioenergy crop yield. We found that unconstrained irrigation more than doubled the yield under rainfed conditions while simultaneously reducing the water use efficiency by 32 % globally. Our enhanced model provides a new tool for the future assessment of bioenergy–water tradeoffs.
Tokuta Yokohata, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Gen Sakurai, Yadu Pokhrel, Akihiko Ito, Masashi Okada, Yusuke Satoh, Etsushi Kato, Tomoko Nitta, Shinichiro Fujimori, Farshid Felfelani, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yoshiki Yamagata, and Seita Emori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balances, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land-use decision-making model based on economic activities. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand.
Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, and Shinichiro Fujimori
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-277, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable bioenergy crop yield simulation remains a challenge at the global scale. Here, we enhanced a state-of-the-art global hydrological model to simulate bioenergy yield. We found that unconstrained irrigation more than doubled the yield under rainfed condition, while simultaneously reducing the water-use efficiency by 29 % globally. This is the first trial to use a global hydrological model to simulate the bioenergy crop and offers an effective tool to assess the bioenergy-water relations.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Yadu Pokhrel, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 789–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Six schemes were added to the H08 global hydrological model (GHM) to represent human water abstraction more accurately and ensure that all water fluxes and storage are traceable in each grid cell at a daily interval. The schemes of local reservoirs, aqueduct water transfer, and seawater desalination were incorporated into GHMs for the first time, to the best of our knowledge. H08 has become one of the most detailed GHMs for attributing water sources available to humanity.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Kazuya Nishina, Akihiko Ito, Naota Hanasaki, and Seiji Hayashi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-149-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-149-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Available historical global N fertilizer map as an input data to global biogeochemical model is still limited and existing maps were not considered NH4+ and NO3− in the fertilizer application rates. In our products, by utilizing national fertilizer species consumption data in FAOSTAT database, we succeeded to estimate the ratio of NH4+ to NO3− in the N fertilizer map. The products could be widely utilized for global N cycling studies.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Kaoru Kakinuma, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4143–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Although seawater desalination has been widely implemented and used as a key source of water in arid regions, it has been seldom included in global water resource assessments based on numerical simulations. We first developed a global model to estimate the areal extent and production of seawater desalination which was designed to be incorporated with global hydrological models. The model was applied to future periods under three distinct socioeconomic conditions.
Y. Wada, M. Flörke, N. Hanasaki, S. Eisner, G. Fischer, S. Tramberend, Y. Satoh, M. T. H. van Vliet, P. Yillia, C. Ringler, P. Burek, and D. Wiberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP, to provide the first multi-model analysis of global water use for the 21st century based on the water scenarios.
Y. Masaki, N. Hanasaki, K. Takahashi, and Y. Hijioka
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 461–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-461-2015, 2015
M. Masood, P. J.-F. Yeh, N. Hanasaki, and K. Takeuchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 747–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-747-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrologic model H08 is calibrated and validated on the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin by addressing model parameter-related uncertainty. The impacts of climate change on runoff, evapotranspiration, net radiation and soil moisture are assessed by using five CMIP5 GCMs. The paper reveals the higher possibility of flood occurrence in the Meghna Basin due to the highest increase in runoff. Findings provide indispensable basis for scientifically based decision-making in climate change adaptation.
S. Yoshikawa, J. Cho, H. G. Yamada, N. Hanasaki, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4289–4310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4289-2014, 2014
M. Konar, Z. Hussein, N. Hanasaki, D. L. Mauzerall, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3219-2013, 2013
N. Hanasaki, S. Fujimori, T. Yamamoto, S. Yoshikawa, Y. Masaki, Y. Hijioka, M. Kainuma, Y. Kanamori, T. Masui, K. Takahashi, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2375–2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
Minjiao Lu, Takahiro Ogura, Thandar Tun Zin, Shigeaki Oka, Shun-ichi Onitsuka, Naoaki Kawamura, Takahiro Yamamoto, and Koichi Komiyama
Proc. IAHS, 386, 197–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We attempted to evaluate the risk of a sediment disaster using the SMD, i.e., the surplus capacity of the soil column to accept rainwater. A numerical model was developed to calculate the SMD and then applied to 446 sediment disasters. The results showed that the SMD can be a good indicator of the risk of sediment disaster. Also a probability distribution model of the minimum SMD within the disaster occurrence period was constructed which allows early warning of the sediment disasters.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms the claims raised by historians that the Eastward Diversion Project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted four centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the Capitol Edo (Tokyo) using inland navigation. We reconstructed six historical river maps and indirectly validated the historical simulations with reachable ancient river ports via increased low-flow water levels.
Kedar Otta, Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon N. Gosling, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs play important roles in hydrology and water resources management globally and are incorporated into many Global Hydrological Models. Their simulations are, however, poorly validated due to the lack of available long-term in-situ observation data globally. Here we investigated the applicability of the latest satellite-based reservoir storage estimations in the contiguous US. We found that those products are useful for validating reservoir storage simulations when they are normalized.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan, Adisorn Champathong, Thada Sukhapunnaphan, Shinichiro Nakamura, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2541–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2541-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The modelling of diversion canals using hydrological models is important because they play crucial roles in water management. Therefore, we developed a simplified canal diversion scheme and implemented it into the H08 global hydrological model. The developed diversion scheme was validated in the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand. Region-specific validation results revealed that the H08 model with the diversion scheme could effectively simulate the observed flood diversion pattern in the basin.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Chan Park, Makoto Tamura, and Yasuaki Hijioka
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3121–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To simplify calculating economic impacts of climate change, statistical methods called emulators are developed and evaluated. There are trade-offs between model complexity and emulation performance. Aggregated economic impacts can be approximated by relatively simple emulators, but complex emulators are necessary to accommodate finer-scale economic impacts.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, and Shinichiro Fujimori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6077–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6077-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6077-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Incorporating bioenergy crops into the well-established global hydrological models is seldom seen today. Here, we successfully enhance a state-of-the-art global hydrological model H08 to simulate bioenergy crop yield. We found that unconstrained irrigation more than doubled the yield under rainfed conditions while simultaneously reducing the water use efficiency by 32 % globally. Our enhanced model provides a new tool for the future assessment of bioenergy–water tradeoffs.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Tokuta Yokohata, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Gen Sakurai, Yadu Pokhrel, Akihiko Ito, Masashi Okada, Yusuke Satoh, Etsushi Kato, Tomoko Nitta, Shinichiro Fujimori, Farshid Felfelani, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yoshiki Yamagata, and Seita Emori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balances, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land-use decision-making model based on economic activities. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand.
Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, and Shinichiro Fujimori
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-277, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable bioenergy crop yield simulation remains a challenge at the global scale. Here, we enhanced a state-of-the-art global hydrological model to simulate bioenergy yield. We found that unconstrained irrigation more than doubled the yield under rainfed condition, while simultaneously reducing the water-use efficiency by 29 % globally. This is the first trial to use a global hydrological model to simulate the bioenergy crop and offers an effective tool to assess the bioenergy-water relations.
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Yadu Pokhrel, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 789–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Six schemes were added to the H08 global hydrological model (GHM) to represent human water abstraction more accurately and ensure that all water fluxes and storage are traceable in each grid cell at a daily interval. The schemes of local reservoirs, aqueduct water transfer, and seawater desalination were incorporated into GHMs for the first time, to the best of our knowledge. H08 has become one of the most detailed GHMs for attributing water sources available to humanity.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Nozomi Ando, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-27, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Electricity generation may become a key factor that accelerates water scarcity. In this study, we estimated the future global water use for electricity generation from 2005 to 2100 in 17 global sub-regions. Consequently, We indicated that the socioeconomic changes had a larger impact on water withdrawal and consumption for electricity generation, compared with the climate mitigation changes represented by the climate mitigation scenarios.
Kazuya Nishina, Akihiko Ito, Naota Hanasaki, and Seiji Hayashi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-149-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-149-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Available historical global N fertilizer map as an input data to global biogeochemical model is still limited and existing maps were not considered NH4+ and NO3− in the fertilizer application rates. In our products, by utilizing national fertilizer species consumption data in FAOSTAT database, we succeeded to estimate the ratio of NH4+ to NO3− in the N fertilizer map. The products could be widely utilized for global N cycling studies.
Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Kaoru Kakinuma, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4143–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Although seawater desalination has been widely implemented and used as a key source of water in arid regions, it has been seldom included in global water resource assessments based on numerical simulations. We first developed a global model to estimate the areal extent and production of seawater desalination which was designed to be incorporated with global hydrological models. The model was applied to future periods under three distinct socioeconomic conditions.
Y. Wada, M. Flörke, N. Hanasaki, S. Eisner, G. Fischer, S. Tramberend, Y. Satoh, M. T. H. van Vliet, P. Yillia, C. Ringler, P. Burek, and D. Wiberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP, to provide the first multi-model analysis of global water use for the 21st century based on the water scenarios.
Y. Masaki, N. Hanasaki, K. Takahashi, and Y. Hijioka
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 461–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-461-2015, 2015
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
M. Masood, P. J.-F. Yeh, N. Hanasaki, and K. Takeuchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 747–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-747-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrologic model H08 is calibrated and validated on the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin by addressing model parameter-related uncertainty. The impacts of climate change on runoff, evapotranspiration, net radiation and soil moisture are assessed by using five CMIP5 GCMs. The paper reveals the higher possibility of flood occurrence in the Meghna Basin due to the highest increase in runoff. Findings provide indispensable basis for scientifically based decision-making in climate change adaptation.
S. Yoshikawa, J. Cho, H. G. Yamada, N. Hanasaki, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4289–4310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4289-2014, 2014
S. Yoshikawa, A. Yanagawa, Y. Iwasaki, P. Sui, S. Koirala, K. Hirano, A. Khajuria, R. Mahendran, Y. Hirabayashi, C. Yoshimura, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 621–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-621-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-621-2014, 2014
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
M. Konar, Z. Hussein, N. Hanasaki, D. L. Mauzerall, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3219-2013, 2013
N. Hanasaki, S. Fujimori, T. Yamamoto, S. Yoshikawa, Y. Masaki, Y. Hijioka, M. Kainuma, Y. Kanamori, T. Masui, K. Takahashi, and S. Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2375–2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Technical note: Comparing three different methods for allocating river points to coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid cells
Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations
Influence of irrigation on root zone storage capacity estimation
Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050 without climate policy
Assessment of pluri-annual and decadal changes in terrestrial water storage predicted by global hydrological models in comparison with the GRACE satellite gravity mission
Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration
Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach
Unveiling Hydrological Dynamics in Data-Scarce Regions: A Comprehensive Integrated Approach
Point-scale multi-objective calibration of the Community Land Model (version 5.0) using in situ observations of water and energy fluxes and variables
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate
Diagnosing modeling errors in global terrestrial water storage interannual variability
Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Poor correlation between large-scale environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity: implications for water resource management and the freshwater planetary boundary
Accuracy of five ground heat flux empirical simulation methods in the surface-energy-balance-based remote-sensing evapotranspiration models
Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff
Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data
Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh
Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States
Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes
Inundation prediction in tropical wetlands from JULES-CaMa-Flood global land surface simulations
Soil moisture estimation in South Asia via assimilation of SMAP retrievals
Toward hyper-resolution global hydrological models including human activities: application to Kyushu island, Japan
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle
The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations
Large-scale sensitivities of groundwater and surface water to groundwater withdrawal
A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models
A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods
Bright and blind spots of water research in Latin America and the Caribbean
Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters
Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management
Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling
Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review
Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River basin under climate change
Evaluation of 18 satellite- and model-based soil moisture products using in situ measurements from 826 sensors
The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach
Assessing global water mass transfers from continents to oceans over the period 1948–2016
Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model
The influence of assimilating leaf area index in a land surface model on global water fluxes and storages
Comparison of generalized non-data-driven lake and reservoir routing models for global-scale hydrologic forecasting of reservoir outflow at diurnal time steps
The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño
HESS Opinions: Beyond the long-term water balance: evolving Budyko's supply–demand framework for the Anthropocene towards a global synthesis of land-surface fluxes under natural and human-altered watersheds
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work was performed in order to precisely address a point that is often neglected by hydrologists: the allocation of points located on a river network to grid cells, which is often a mandatory step for hydrological modelling.
Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 899–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global and regional models used to evaluate water shortages typically neglect the possibility that irrigated crop areas may change in response to future hydrological conditions, such as the fallowing of crops in response to drought. Here, we enhance a model used for water shortage analysis with farmer agents that dynamically adapt their irrigated crop areas based on simulated hydrological conditions. Results indicate that such cropping adaptation can strongly alter simulated water shortages.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work, we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affects weather prediction.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Xiufeng He, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4551–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using evidence from meteorological stations, this study assessed the climatic, hydrological, and ecological aridity changes in global drylands and their associated mechanisms. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. This highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2622, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via vegetation roots, which depends on the extent of the vegetation root system. In this study we quantified the effect of irrigation on the vegetation roots globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the root extent of vegetation, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Alejandro Blazquez, Bertrand Decharme, Simon Munier, and Anne Barnoud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3743–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission enabled the quantification of water mass redistributions from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of GRACE satellite data shows here that slow changes in terrestrial water storage occurring over a few years to a decade are severely underestimated by global hydrological models. Several sources of errors may explain such biases, likely including the inaccurate representation of groundwater storage changes.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1895, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a pioneering Comprehensive Integrated Approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, it offers a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Tanja Denager, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Majken C. Looms, Heye Bogena, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2827–2845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to improvements in the model characterization of water and energy fluxes. The results show that multi-objective autocalibration in combination with mathematical regularization is a powerful tool to improve land surface models. Using the direct measurement of turbulent fluxes as the target variable, parameter optimization matches simulations and observations of latent heat, whereas sensible heat is clearly biased.
Omar Vicente Müller, Patrick McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1281, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate how rivers are expected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such a magnitude of changes may produce more frequent floods with severe consequences in metropolitan areas, alter the management of dams affecting hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-14, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 on extreme rainfall and extreme streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, respectively along with the increasing probability of low flow and high flow events. We reveal that the changes in low flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extreme dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Zhaofei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6207-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground heat flux (G) accounts for a significant fraction of the surface energy balance (SEB), but there is insufficient research on these models compared with other flux. The accuracy of G simulation methods in the SEB-based remote sensing evapotranspiration models is evaluated. Results show that the accuracy of each method varied significantly at different sites and at half-hour intervals. Further improvement of G simulations is recommended for the remote sensing evapotranspiration modelers.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use three models to forecast river streamflow operationally for 13 months (September 2020 to October 2021) at 10 gauges in the western US. The first model is a state-of-the-art physics-based streamflow model (GloFAS). The second applies a bias-correction technique to GloFAS. The third is a type of neural network (an LSTM). We find that all three are capable of producing skilful forecasts but that the LSTM performs the best, with skilful 5 d forecasts at nine stations.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Yu Tian, Denghua Yan, Weixin Xu, Huayang Cai, Jiabiao Wang, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4233–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection. Specifically, the intersection operation of the coefficient of determination derives the overlapping information for GCM forecasts and the Niño3.4 index, and then the difference operation determines the differing information in GCM forecasts (Niño3.4 index) from the Niño3.4 index (GCM forecasts).
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Jawairia A. Ahmad, Barton A. Forman, and Sujay V. Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2221–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data-scarce regions.
Naota Hanasaki, Hikari Matsuda, Masashi Fujiwara, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinta Seto, Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1953–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are usually applied with a spatial resolution of about 50 km, but this time we applied the H08 model, one of the most advanced GHMs, with a high resolution of 2 km to Kyushu island, Japan. Since the model was not accurate as it was, we incorporated local information and improved the model, which revealed detailed water stress in subregions that were not visible with the previous resolution.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Tina Trautmann, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Andreas Güntner, and Martin Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1089–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the effect of how vegetation is defined in a global hydrological model on the composition of total water storage (TWS). We compare two experiments, one with globally uniform and one with vegetation parameters that vary in space and time. While both experiments are constrained against observational data, we found a drastic change in the partitioning of TWS, highlighting the important role of the interaction between groundwater–soil moisture–vegetation in understanding TWS variations.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Alyssa J. DeVincentis, Hervé Guillon, Romina Díaz Gómez, Noelle K. Patterson, Francine van den Brandeler, Arthur Koehl, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Laura E. Garza-Díaz, Jennifer Gamez-Rodríguez, Erfan Goharian, and Samuel Sandoval Solis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4631–4650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4631-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Latin America and the Caribbean face many water-related stresses which are expected to worsen with climate change. To assess the vulnerability, we reviewed over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the regional landscape. Results reveal that the region’s inherent vulnerability is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on one country (Brazil).
Michiel Maertens, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sebastian Apers, Sujay V. Kumar, and Sarith P. P. Mahanama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4099–4125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we simulated the water balance over the South American Dry Chaco and assessed the impact of land cover changes thereon using three different land surface models. Our simulations indicated that different models result in a different partitioning of the total water budget, but all showed an increase in soil moisture and percolation over the deforested areas. We also found that, relative to independent data, no specific land surface model is significantly better than another.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water, energy and carbon cycle on land. Reliable ET estimates are key to understand droughts and flooding. We develop a new ET dataset, DOLCE V3, by merging multiple global ET datasets, and we show that it matches ET observations better and hence is more reliable than its parent datasets. Next, we use DOLCE V3 to examine recent changes in ET and find that ET has increased over most of the land, decreased in some regions, and has not changed in some other regions
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how deep learning models use different meteorological data sets in the task of (regional) rainfall–runoff modeling. We show that performance can be significantly improved when using different data products as input and further show how the model learns to combine those meteorological input differently across time and space. The results are carefully benchmarked against classical approaches, showing the supremacy of the presented approach.
Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ideas to mitigate climate change include the large-scale cultivation of fast-growing plants to capture atmospheric CO2 in biomass. To maximize the productivity of these plants, they will likely be irrigated. However, there is strong disagreement in the literature on how much irrigation water is needed globally, potentially inducing water stress. We provide a comprehensive overview of global irrigation demand studies for biomass production and discuss the diverse underlying study assumptions.
Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, and Richard B. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1365–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Amid growing interest in using large-scale hydrological models for flood and drought monitoring and forecasting, it is important to evaluate common assumptions these models make. We investigated the representation of reservoirs as separate (non-coordinated) infrastructure. We found that not appropriately representing coordination and control processes can lead a hydrological model to simulate flood and drought events that would not occur given the coordinated emergency response in the basin.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Laura E. Queen, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-257-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a large ensemble of simulated flows throughout the northwestern USA, we compare daily flood statistics in the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–1999) periods and find that nearly all locations will experience an increase in flood magnitudes. The flood season expands significantly in many currently snow-dominant rivers, moving from only spring to both winter and spring. These results, properly extended, may help inform flood risk management and negotiations of the Columbia River Treaty.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Yared Abayneh Abebe, Amineh Ghorbani, Igor Nikolic, Natasa Manojlovic, Angelika Gruhn, and Zoran Vojinovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for Hamburg, Germany. It explores residents’ adaptation behaviour in relation to flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. We found that unique trajectories of adaptation behaviour emerge from different flood event series. Providing subsidies improves adaptation behaviour in the long run. The coupled modelling technique allows the role of individual measures in flood risk management to be examined.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Salma Tafasca, Agnès Ducharne, and Christian Valentin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3753–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In land surface models (LSMs), soil properties are inferred from soil texture. In this study, we use different input global soil texture maps from the literature to investigate the impact of soil texture on the simulated water budget in an LSM. The medium loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. However, the different soil texture maps result in similar water budgets because of their inherent similarities, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution.
Xinxuan Zhang, Viviana Maggioni, Azbina Rahman, Paul Houser, Yuan Xue, Timothy Sauer, Sujay Kumar, and David Mocko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3775–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the extent to which a land surface model can be optimized via the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) observations at the global scale. The model performance is evaluated by the model-estimated LAI and five water flux/storage variables. Results show the LAI assimilation reduces errors in the model-estimated LAI. The LAI assimilation also improves the five water variables under wet conditions, but some of the model-estimated variables tend to be worse under dry conditions.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mark D. Wahl, and Michael L. Follum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2711–2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2711-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global-scale hydrologic forecasts should account for attenuation through lakes and reservoirs. There is no consensus on the best approach to estimating this attenuation in large-spatial-scale hydrologic forecasts. This article investigates two existing parsimonious approaches to estimating reservoir outflows. We test each method at 60 reservoirs in the United States. We find that a method first developed in 2003 can provide a reasonable approximation of diurnal reservoir outflows.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
A. Sankarasubramanian, Dingbao Wang, Stacey Archfield, Meredith Reitz, Richard M. Vogel, Amirhossein Mazrooei, and Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1975-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1975-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Budyko framework which relies on the supply and demand concept could be effectively adapted and extended to quantify the role of drivers – both changing climate and local human disturbances – in altering the land-surface response. This framework is extended with a few illustrative examples for quantifying the variability in land-surface fluxes for natural and human-altered watersheds. Potential for using observed and remotely sensed datasets in capturing this variability is also discussed.
Cited articles
Alcamo, J., Flörke, M., and Marker, M.: Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, 2007.
Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources, Global Environ. Change, 9, S31–S49, 1999.
Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14, 31–52, 2004.
Döll, P.: Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 035006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006, 2009.
Döll, P.: Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: A global perspective, Clim. Change, 54, 269–293, 2002.
Döll, P. and Siebert, S.: Global modeling of irrigation water requirements, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000355, 2002.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): AQUASTAT, available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm (last access: 30 September 2012), 2011.
Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Hoff, H., Biemans, H., Fader, M., and Waha, K.: Global water availability and requirements for future food production, J. Hydromet., 12, 885–899, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1328.1, 2011.
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., and Doutriaux, C.: Performance metrics for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972, 2008.
Haddeland, I., Skaugen, T., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Anthropogenic impacts on continental surface water fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08406, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026047, 2006.
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P., and Yeh, P.: Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results, J. Hydromet., 12, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jhm1324.1, 2011.
Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Hanasaki, N., Heinke, J., Ludwig, F., Voss, F., and Wiltshire, A. J.: Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models, J. Hydrol., 327, 22–41, 2006.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1007–1025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008, 2008a.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1027–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1027-2008, 2008b.
Hanasaki, N., Inuzuka, T., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: An estimation of global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal for major crops and livestock products using a global hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 384, 232–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.028, 2010.
Hanasaki, N., Fujimori, S., Yamamoto, T., Yoshikawa, S., Masaki, Y., Hijioka, Y., Kainuma, M., Kanamori, Y., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., and Kanae, S.: A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2375–2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013, 2013.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Mekonnen, M. M., Chapagain, A. K., Mathews, R. E., and Richter, B. D.: Global Monthly Water Scarcity: Blue Water Footprints versus Blue Water Availability, PLoS ONE, 7, e32688, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0032688, 2012.
International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD): World Register of Dams, International Commission on Large Dams, Paris, 1998.
Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y., and Morita, T.: Climate Policy Assessment: Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling, Springer, Tokyo, Japan and New York, USA, 2002.
Knutti, R., Abramowitz, G., Collins, M., Eyring, V., Gleckler, P. J., Hewitson, B., and Mearns, L.: Good Practice Guidance Paper on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections, in: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2010.
Kondo, J.: Meteorology of water environment, Asakura Publishing, Tokyo, Japan, 1994.
Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R. J., Moss, R. H., and Wilbanks, T.: The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways, Global Environ. Change, 22, 807–822, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005, 2012.
Krysanova, V., Wechsung, F., Arnold, J., Srinivasan, R., and Williams, J.: SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) User Manual, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, 2000.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: Freshwater resources and their management, in: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173–210, 2007.
Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis, Climatic Change, 75, 273–299, 2006.
Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Popp, A., and Lucht, W.: Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach, Agr. Econom., 39, 325–338, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x, 2008.
Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Farming the Planet. Part 2: The Geographic Distribution of Crop Areas and Yields in the Year 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB1022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002947, 2008.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R.: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 612 pp., 2000.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, 2006.
Oki, T., Nishimura, T., and Dirmeyer, P.: Assessment of annual runoff from land surface models using Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP), J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 77, 235–255, 1999.
Oki, T., Agata, Y., Kanae, S., Saruhashi, T., and Musiake, K.: Global Water Resources Assessment under Climatic Change in 2050 using TRIP, IAHS Publication, 280, 124–133, 2003.
Piani, C., Weedon, G. P., Best, M., Gomes, S. M., Viterbo, P., Hagemann, S., and Haerter, J. O.: Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models, J. Hydrol., 395, 199–215, 2010.
Ramankutty, N., Evan, A., Monfreda, C., and Foley, J. A.: Farming the Planet. Part 1: The Geographic Distribution of Global Agricultural Lands in the Year 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002952, 2008.
Raskin, P., Gleick, P., Kirshen, P., Pontius, G., and Strzepek, K.: Comprehensive assessment of the freshwater resources of the world, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, 1997.
Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J., and Schaphoff, S.: Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006331, 2008.
Shiklomanov, I. A.: Appraisal and assessment of world water resources, Water Int., 25, 11–32, 2000.
Siebert, S., Döll, P., Hoogeveen, J., Faures, J.-M., Frenken, K., and Feick, S.: Development and validation of the global map of irrigation areas, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-535-2005, 2005.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of cmip5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., and Lammers, R. B.: Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth, Science, 289, 284–288, 2000.
van Vuuren, D., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S., and Rose, S.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., Viviroli, D., Dürr, H. H., Weingartner, R., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and severity of water stress, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07518, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr009792, 2011.
Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E., Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823–848, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jhm1369.1, 2011.
