Articles | Volume 28, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 May 2024
Research article |
| 06 May 2024
| 06 May 2024
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Mugni Hadi Hariadi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia
Gerard van der Schrier
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Gert-Jan Steeneveld
Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands
Samuel J. Sutanto
Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands
Edwin Sutanudjaja
Delta Climate Center, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Dian Nur Ratri
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia
Albert Klein Tank
Delta Climate Center, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Qing He, Naota Hanasaki, Akiko Matsumura, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Taikan Oki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2952, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This work presents a global groundwater modeling framework at 5-arcminute resolution, developed through an offline coupling of the H08 water resource model and MODFLOW6. The model includes a single-layer aquifer and is designed to capture long-term mean groundwater dynamics under varying climate types. The manuscript describes the model structure, input datasets, and evaluation against available observations.
Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Aafke M. Schipper, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2153–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025, 2025
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The contribution of groundwater to groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is declining as a result of an increase in groundwater abstractions and climate change. This may lead to loss of habitat and biodiversity. This proposed framework enables the mapping and understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of GDEs on a large scale. The next step is to assess the global impacts of climate change and water use on GDE extent and health.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, 2025
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Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
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This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Jennie C. Steyaert, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Marc Bierkens, and Niko Wanders
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3658, 2025
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Using machine learning techniques and remotely sensed reservoir data, we develop a workflow to derive reservoir storage bounds. We put these bounds in a global hydrologic model, PCR-GLOBWB 2, and evaluate the difference between generalized operations (the schemes typically in global models) and this data derived method. We find that modelled storage is more accurate in the data derived operations. We also find that generalized operations over estimate storage and can underestimate water gaps.
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025
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Policy makers use global hydrological models to develop water management strategies and policies. However, it would be better if these models provided information at higher resolution. We present a first-of-its-kind, truly global hyper-resolution model and show that hyper-resolution brings about better estimates of river discharge, and this is especially true for smaller catchments. Our results also suggest that future hyper-resolution models need to include more detailed land cover information.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
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A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
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This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
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This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Francesco Barbano, Erika Brattich, Carlo Cintolesi, Abdul Ghafoor Nizamani, Silvana Di Sabatino, Massimo Milelli, Esther E. M. Peerlings, Sjoerd Polder, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, and Antonio Parodi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3255–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3255-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3255-2024, 2024
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The characterization of the urban microclimate starts with atmospheric monitoring using a dense array of sensors to capture the spatial variations induced by the different morphology, land cover, and presence of vegetation. To provide a new sensor for this scope, this paper evaluates the outdoor performance of a commercial mobile sensor. The results mark the sensor's ability to capture the same atmospheric variability as the reference, making it a valid solution for atmospheric monitoring.
Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, Gerard van der Schrier, Else van den Besselaar, Irene Garcia-Marti, and Lotte Wilhelmina de Vos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 649–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-649-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-649-2024, 2024
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Ground-based radar precipitation products typically need adjustment with rain gauge accumulations to achieve a reasonable accuracy. Crowdsourced rain gauge networks have a much higher density than conventional ones. Here, a 1-year personal weather station (PWS) gauge dataset is obtained. After quality control, the 1 h PWS gauge accumulations are merged with pan-European radar accumulations. The potential of crowdsourcing to improve radar precipitation products in (near) real time is confirmed.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Jouke H. S. de Baar, Linh Nhat Luu, Gerard van der Schrier, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, and Irene Garcia-Marti
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 91–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-91-2023, 2023
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In this work, we present the most recent updates in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe. The data set is provided as an ensemble of equally likely realisations. In addition, we make a preliminary study into possible causes of the observed terrestrial wind stilling effect, such as local changes in surface roughness length. As one of the results, we do observe a terrestrial wind stilling effect, however, the trend varies locally over Europe.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
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DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Jouke H. S. de Baar, Irene Garcia-Marti, and Gerard van der Schrier
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 49–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-49-2023, 2023
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Combining high-fidelity official meteorological observations with low-fidelity crowd-sourced data in a single climate or weather map is challenging because of the significant bias and noise in the low-fidelity data. In this work, we present a method to treat this bias and noise in a statistical framework. In addition, we show that we can make an additional improvement in the quality of the map when we add high-resolution land use information.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
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To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Aart Overeem, Else van den Besselaar, Gerard van der Schrier, Jan Fokke Meirink, Emiel van der Plas, and Hidde Leijnse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1441–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1441-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1441-2023, 2023
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EURADCLIM is a new precipitation dataset covering a large part of Europe. It is based on weather radar data to provide local precipitation information every hour and combined with rain gauge data to obtain good precipitation estimates. EURADCLIM provides a much better reference for validation of weather model output and satellite precipitation datasets. It also allows for climate monitoring and better evaluation of extreme precipitation events and their impact (landslides, flooding).
Auke M. van der Woude, Remco de Kok, Naomi Smith, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Santiago Botía, Ute Karstens, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Gerbrand Koren, Harro A. J. Meijer, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Ida Storm, Ingrid Super, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Alex Vermeulen, and Wouter Peters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 579–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-579-2023, 2023
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To monitor the progress towards the CO2 emission goals set out in the Paris Agreement, the European Union requires an independent validation of emitted CO2. For this validation, atmospheric measurements of CO2 can be used, together with first-guess estimates of CO2 emissions and uptake. To quickly inform end users, it is imperative that this happens in near real-time. To aid these efforts, we create estimates of European CO2 exchange at high resolution in near real time.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
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We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Ian Boutle, Wayne Angevine, Jian-Wen Bao, Thierry Bergot, Ritthik Bhattacharya, Andreas Bott, Leo Ducongé, Richard Forbes, Tobias Goecke, Evelyn Grell, Adrian Hill, Adele L. Igel, Innocent Kudzotsa, Christine Lac, Bjorn Maronga, Sami Romakkaniemi, Juerg Schmidli, Johannes Schwenkel, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, and Benoît Vié
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 319–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-319-2022, 2022
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Fog forecasting is one of the biggest problems for numerical weather prediction. By comparing many models used for fog forecasting with others used for fog research, we hoped to help guide forecast improvements. We show some key processes that, if improved, will help improve fog forecasting, such as how water is deposited on the ground. We also showed that research models were not themselves a suitable baseline for comparison, and we discuss what future observations are required to improve them.
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
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We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
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The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
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This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Johannes G. M. Barten, Laurens N. Ganzeveld, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10229–10248, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10229-2021, 2021
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We present an evaluation of ocean and snow/ice O3 deposition in explaining observed hourly surface O3 at 25 pan-Arctic sites using an atmospheric meteorology/chemistry model. The model includes a mechanistic representation of ocean O3 deposition as a function of ocean biogeochemical and mixing conditions. The mechanistic representation agrees better with O3 observations in terms of magnitude and temporal variability especially in the High Arctic (> 70° N).
Samuel Jonson Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 281–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, 2020
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This paper aims to analyze hydrological drought characteristics in the pan-European region based on past drought events from 1990 to 2017. Our study shows that the most severe droughts during our study period were observed from 1992 to 1997, where on average Europe experienced drought events, which lasted up to 4 months. Slow responding variables, such as groundwater, are better in showing extreme drought compared to fast responding variables such as runoff.
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Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over...
