Articles | Volume 27, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
Research article
 | 
20 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 20 Apr 2023

Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate

Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, and Dai Yamazaki

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser K, and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earth's Future, 5, 171–182. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485, 2017. 
Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: https://www.wri.org/aqueduct/data, last access: 25 October 2022. 
Bates, P. D., Savage, J., Wing, O., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Neal, J., and Smith, A.: A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023. 
Beck, H. E., De Roo, A., and van Dijk, A. I.: Global maps of streamflow characteristics based on observations from several thousand catchments, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1478–1501, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0155.1, 2015. 
Bernhofen, M. V., Whyman, C., Trigg, M. A., Sleigh, P. A., Smith, A. M., Sampson, C. C., Yamazaki, D., Ward, J. P., and Winsemius, H. C.: A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 104007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae014, 2018. 
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Since both the frequency and magnitude of flood will increase by climate change, information on spatial distributions of potential inundation depths (i.e., flood-hazard map) is required. We developed a method for constructing realistic future flood-hazard maps which addresses issues due to biases in climate models. A larger population is estimated to face risk in the future flood-hazard map, suggesting that only focusing on flood-frequency change could cause underestimation of future risk.
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