Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4843-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4843-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 18 Sep 2018
| 18 Sep 2018
Estimation of effective porosity in large-scale groundwater models by combining particle tracking, auto-calibration and 14C dating
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resources Management,
University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
Peter Engesgaard
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resources Management,
University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
Klaus Hinsby
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10,
1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
Jan A. Piotrowski
Department of Geosciences, Aarhus
University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
Torben O. Sonnenborg
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10,
1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1645–1666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1645-2023, 2023
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We investigate the coupling of transport with dissolution-precipitation, that occur widely in Earth science, as the reaction affect porosity and hydraulic conductivity. We show that the transport self-organization and the power required to maintain the driving pressure as the field becomes more heterogeneous, increases over time due to the interplay between transport and the reactive process. This self-organization is more pronounced in diffusion-dominated flows.
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In order to model groundwater flow in karst aquifers, it is necessary to approximate the influence of the unknown and irregular structure of the karst conduits. For this purpose, a procedure based on inverse modeling is adopted. Moreover, in order to reconstruct the functional dependencies related to groundwater flow, the particle swarm method was used, through which the optimal solution of unknown functions is found by imitating the movement of ants in search of food.
Tom Müller, Matteo Roncoroni, Davide Mancini, Stuart N. Lane, and Bettina Schaefli
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We investigate the role of a newly formed floodplain in an alpine glaciated catchment to store and release water. Based on field measurements, we built a numerical model to simulate the water fluxes and show that recharge occurs mainly due to the ice-melt fed river. We identify 3 future floodplains, which could emerge from glacier retreat and show that their combined storage lead to some additional groundwater storage but contribute to little additional baseflow for the downstream river.
Shouchuan Zhang, Zheming Shi, Guangcai Wang, Zuochen Zhang, and Huaming Guo
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We documented the step-like increases of water level, flow rate, and water temperatures in a confined aquifer following multiple earthquakes. By employing tidal analysis and a coupled temperature and flow rate model, we find that post-seismic vertical permeability changes and recharge model could explain the co-seismic response. And co-seismic temperature changes are caused by mixing of different volumes of water, with the mixing ratio varying according to each earthquake.
Xiaoying Zhang, Fan Dong, Guangquan Chen, and Zhenxue Dai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-83-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-83-2023, 2023
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In a data-driven framework, groundwater levels can generally only be calculated 1 time step ahead. We discuss the advance prediction with longer forecast periods rather than single time steps by constructing a model based on a temporal convolutional network. Model accuracy and efficiency were further compared with an LSTM-based model. The two models derived in this study can help people cope with the uncertainty of what might occur in hydrological scenarios under the threat of climate change.
Dimitri Rambourg, Raphaël Di Chiara, and Philippe Ackerer
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The reproduction of flows and contaminations underground requires a good estimation of the parameters of the geological environment (mainly permeability and porosity), in three dimensions. While most researchers rely on geophysical methods, which are costly and difficult to implement in the field, this study proposes an alternative using data that are already widely available: piezometric records (monitoring of the water table) and the lithological description of the piezometric wells.
Raphael Schneider, Julian Koch, Lars Troldborg, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, and Simon Stisen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5859–5877, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5859-2022, 2022
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Hydrological models at high spatial resolution are computationally expensive. However, outputs from such models, such as the depth of the groundwater table, are often desired in high resolution. We developed a downscaling algorithm based on machine learning that allows us to increase spatial resolution of hydrological model outputs, alleviating computational burden. We successfully applied the downscaling algorithm to the climate-change-induced impacts on the groundwater table across Denmark.
Luca Guillaumot, Laurent Longuevergne, Jean Marçais, Nicolas Lavenant, and Olivier Bour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5697–5720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5697-2022, 2022
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Recharge, defining the renewal rate of groundwater resources, is difficult to estimate at basin scale. Here, recharge variations are inferred from water table variations recorded in boreholes. First, results show that aquifer-scale properties controlling these variations can be inferred from boreholes. Second, groundwater is recharged by both intense and seasonal rainfall. Third, the short-term contribution appears overestimated in recharge models and depends on the unsaturated zone thickness.
Alberto Casillas-Trasvina, Bart Rogiers, Koen Beerten, Laurent Wouters, and Kristine Walraevens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5577–5604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5577-2022, 2022
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Heat in the subsurface can be used to characterize aquifer flow behaviour. The temperature data obtained can be useful for understanding the groundwater flow, which is of particular importance in waste disposal studies. Satellite images of surface temperature and a temperature–time curve were implemented in a heat transport model. Results indicate that conduction plays a major role in the aquifer and support the usefulness of temperature measurements.
Tunde Olarinoye, Tom Gleeson, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5431–5447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5431-2022, 2022
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Analysis of karst spring recession is essential for management of groundwater. In karst, recession is dominated by slow and fast components; separating these components is by manual and subjective approaches. In our study, we tested the applicability of automated streamflow recession extraction procedures for a karst spring. Results showed that, by simple modification, streamflow extraction methods can identify slow and fast components: derived recession parameters are within reasonable ranges.
Min Lu, Bart Rogiers, Koen Beerten, Matej Gedeon, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3629–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3629-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3629-2022, 2022
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Lowland rivers and shallow aquifers are closely coupled. We study their interactions here using a combination of impulse response modeling and hydrological data analysis. The results show that the lowland catchments are groundwater dominated and that the hydrological system from precipitation impulse to groundwater inflow response is a very fast response regime. This study also provides an alternative method to estimate groundwater inflow to rivers from the perspective of groundwater level.
Zhongxia Li, Junwei Wan, Tao Xiong, Hongbin Zhan, Linqing He, and Kun Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3359-2022, 2022
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Four permeable rocks with different pore sizes were considered to provide experimental evidence of Forchheimer flow and the transition between different flow regimes. The mercury injection technique was used to measure the pore size distribution, which is an essential factor for determining the flow regime, for four permeable stones. Finally, the influences of porosity and particle size on the Forchheimer coefficients were discussed.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Guillaume Cinkus, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2405–2430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, 2022
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Modeling complex karst water resources is difficult enough, but often there are no or too few climate stations available within or close to the catchment to deliver input data for modeling purposes. We apply image recognition algorithms to time-distributed, spatially gridded meteorological data to simulate karst spring discharge. Our models can also learn the approximate catchment location of a spring independently.
Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2161–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2161-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2161-2022, 2022
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Extensive efforts have focused on quantifying conservative chemical transport in geological formations. We assert that an explicit accounting of temporal information, under uncertainty, in addition to spatial information, is fundamental to an effective modeling formulation. We further assert that efforts to apply chemical transport equations at large length scales, based on measurements and model parameter values relevant to significantly smaller length scales, are an unattainable
holy grail.
Guilherme E. H. Nogueira, Christian Schmidt, Daniel Partington, Philip Brunner, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1883–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1883-2022, 2022
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In near-stream aquifers, mixing between stream water and ambient groundwater can lead to dilution and the removal of substances that can be harmful to the water ecosystem at high concentrations. We used a numerical model to track the spatiotemporal evolution of different water sources and their mixing around a stream, which are rather difficult in the field. Results show that mixing mainly develops as narrow spots, varying In time and space, and is affected by magnitudes of discharge events.
Jacques Bodin, Gilles Porel, Benoît Nauleau, and Denis Paquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1713–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1713-2022, 2022
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Assessment of the karst network geometry is an important challenge in the accurate modeling of karst aquifers. In this study, we propose an approach for the identification of effective three-dimensional discrete karst conduit networks conditioned on tracer tests and geophysical data. The applicability of the proposed approach is illustrated through a case study at the Hydrogeological Experimental Site in Poitiers, France.
Zexuan Xu, Rebecca Serata, Haruko Wainwright, Miles Denham, Sergi Molins, Hansell Gonzalez-Raymat, Konstantin Lipnikov, J. David Moulton, and Carol Eddy-Dilek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 755–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-755-2022, 2022
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Climate change could change the groundwater system and threaten water supply. To quantitatively evaluate its impact on water quality, numerical simulations with chemical and reaction processes are required. With the climate projection dataset, we used the newly developed hydrological and chemical model to investigate the movement of contaminants and assist the management of contamination sites.
Esther Brakkee, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, and Ruud P. Bartholomeus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 551–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-551-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-551-2022, 2022
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Periods of drought often lead to groundwater shortages in large regions, which cause damage to nature and the economy. To take measures, we need a good understanding of where and when groundwater shortage occurs. In this study, we have tested a method that can combine large amounts of groundwater measurements in an automated way and provide detailed maps of how groundwater shortages develop during a drought period. This information can help water managers to limit future groundwater shortages.
Emmanuel Dubois, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagné, and Guillaume Meyzonnat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6567–6589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6567-2021, 2021
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This work demonstrates the relevance of using a water budget model to understand long-term transient and regional-scale groundwater recharge (GWR) in cold and humid climates where groundwater observations are scarce. Monthly GWR is simulated for 57 years on 500 m x 500 m cells in Canada (36 000 km2 area) with limited uncertainty due to a robust automatic calibration method. The increases in precipitation and temperature since the 1960s have not yet produced significant changes in annual GWR.
Yaniv Edery, Martin Stolar, Giovanni Porta, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5905–5915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5905-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5905-2021, 2021
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The interplay between dissolution, precipitation and transport is widely encountered in porous media, from CO2 storage to cave formation in carbonate rocks. We show that dissolution occurs along preferential flow paths with high hydraulic conductivity, while precipitation occurs at locations close to yet separated from these flow paths, thus further funneling the flow and changing the probability density function of the transport, as measured on the altered conductivity field at various times.
Karina Y. Gutierrez-Jurado, Daniel Partington, and Margaret Shanafield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4299–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4299-2021, 2021
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Understanding the hydrologic cycle in semi-arid landscapes includes knowing the physical processes that govern where and why rivers flow and dry within a given catchment. To gain this understanding, we put together a conceptual model of what processes we think are important and then tested that model with numerical analysis. The results broadly confirmed our hypothesis that there are three distinct regions in our study catchment that contribute to streamflow generation in quite different ways.
Natascha Brandhorst, Daniel Erdal, and Insa Neuweiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4041–4059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4041-2021, 2021
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We compare two approaches for coupling a 2D groundwater model with multiple 1D models for the unsaturated zone. One is non-iterative and very fast. The other one is iterative and involves a new way of treating the specific yield, which is crucial for obtaining a consistent solution in both model compartments. Tested on different scenarios, this new method turns out to be slower than the non-iterative approach but more accurate and still very efficient compared to fully integrated 3D model runs.
Vince P. Kaandorp, Hans Peter Broers, Ype van der Velde, Joachim Rozemeijer, and Perry G. B. de Louw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3691–3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3691-2021, 2021
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We reconstructed historical and present-day tritium, chloride, and nitrate concentrations in stream water of a catchment using
land-use-based input curves and calculated travel times of groundwater. Parameters such as the unsaturated zone thickness, mean travel time, and input patterns determine time lags between inputs and in-stream concentrations. The timescale of the breakthrough of pollutants in streams is dependent on the location of pollution in a catchment.
Yueling Ma, Carsten Montzka, Bagher Bayat, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3555–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, 2021
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This study utilized spatiotemporally continuous precipitation anomaly (pra) and water table depth anomaly (wtda) data from integrated hydrologic simulation results over Europe in combination with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the time-varying and time-lagged relationship between pra and wtda in order to obtain reliable models to estimate wtda at the individual pixel level.
Raoul A. Collenteur, Mark Bakker, Gernot Klammler, and Steffen Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2931–2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2931-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2931-2021, 2021
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This study explores the use of nonlinear transfer function noise (TFN) models to simulate groundwater levels and estimate groundwater recharge from observed groundwater levels. A nonlinear recharge model is implemented in a TFN model to compute the recharge. The estimated recharge rates are shown to be in good agreement with the recharge observed with a lysimeter present at the case study site in Austria. The method can be used to obtain groundwater recharge rates at
sub-yearly timescales.
Franci Gabrovšek and Wolfgang Dreybrodt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2895–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2895-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2895-2021, 2021
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The evolution of karst aquifers is often governed by solutions gaining their aggressiveness in depth. Although the principles of
hypogene speleogenesisare known, modelling studies based on reactive flow in fracture networks are missing. We present a model where dissolution at depth is triggered by the mixing of waters of different origin and chemistry. We show how the initial position of the mixing zone and flow instabilities therein determine the position and shape of the final conduits.
Patrick Morrissey, Paul Nolan, Ted McCormack, Paul Johnston, Owen Naughton, Saheba Bhatnagar, and Laurence Gill
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1923–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1923-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1923-2021, 2021
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Lowland karst aquifers provide important wetland habitat resulting from seasonal flooding on the land surface. This flooding is controlled by surcharging of the karst system, which is very sensitive to changes in rainfall. This study investigates the predicted impacts of climate change on a lowland karst catchment in Ireland and highlights the relative vulnerability to future changing climate conditions of karst systems and any associated wetland habitats.
Liwen Wu, Jesus D. Gomez-Velez, Stefan Krause, Anders Wörman, Tanu Singh, Gunnar Nützmann, and Jörg Lewandowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1905–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1905-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1905-2021, 2021
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With a physically based model that couples flow and heat transport in hyporheic zones, the present study provides the first insights into the dynamics of hyporheic responses to the impacts of daily groundwater withdrawal and river temperature fluctuations, allowing for a better understanding of transient hyporheic exchange processes and hence an improved pumping operational scheme.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, and Stefan Broda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1671–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1671-2021, 2021
Jost Hellwig, Michael Stoelzle, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1053–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1053-2021, 2021
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Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. With three generic scenarios, we found different sensitivities across Germany driven by hydrogeology. While changes in drought hazard due to seasonal recharge shifts will be rather low, a lengthening of dry spells could cause stronger responses in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation, urging local water management to prepare for more severe droughts.
Martin J. Wells, Troy E. Gilmore, Natalie Nelson, Aaron Mittelstet, and John K. Böhlke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 811–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-811-2021, 2021
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Groundwater in many agricultural areas contains high levels of nitrate, which is a concern for drinking water supplies. The rate at which nitrate moves through the subsurface is a critical piece of information for predicting how quickly groundwater nitrate levels may improve after agricultural producers change their approach to managing crop water and fertilizers. In this study, we explored a new statistical modeling approach to determine rates at which nitrate moves into and through an aquifer.
Arnaud Duranel, Julian R. Thompson, Helene Burningham, Philippe Durepaire, Stéphane Garambois, Robert Wyns, and Hervé Cubizolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 291–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-291-2021, 2021
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Peat-forming wetlands (mires) provide multiple ecosystem services, which depend on peat remaining waterlogged. Using hydrological modelling, we show that, contrary to a common assumption, groundwater inflow can be a quantitatively important and functionally critical element of the water balance of mires in hard-rock upland and mountain areas. This influence is such that patterns of groundwater upwelling and seepage explain the spatial distribution of mires in the landscape.
Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, Jichun Wu, and Bill X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5903–5917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5903-2020, 2020
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A new criterion (χi) is proposed to estimate representative elementary volume (REV) of a translucent material based on light transmission techniques. This study is essential for quantitative investigation of the scale effect of porous media and contaminant transformation. The fluid and contaminant migration and transform in porous media can be simulated accurately according to the REV estimation results using the light transmission technique and the appropriate criterion χi.
Ali Ghaseminejad and Venkatesh Uddameri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5759–5779, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5759-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5759-2020, 2020
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While artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used to forecast groundwater levels at single wells, they have not been constructed to forecast hydraulic heads in both space and time. This seminal study presents a modeling framework, guided by the governing physical laws, for building an integrated space–time ANN (IST–ANN) model for regional groundwater level predictions. IST–ANN shows promise for parsimoniously modeling regional-scale groundwater levels using available surrogate information.
Marie-Amélie Pétré, Bernard Ladouche, Jean-Luc Seidel, Romain Hemelsdaël, Véronique de Montety, Christelle Batiot-Guilhe, and Claudine Lamotte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5655–5672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5655-2020, 2020
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We studied the impact of occasional saltwater intrusions into the karst aquifer of the Balaruc peninsula (France). Using hydrogeological and geochemical data, this study shows that the hydraulic impact on the aquifer is rapid and of regional extent, whereas the geochemical impact is observed at the local scale and is temporally persistent. This research supports groundwater management by providing a better understanding of the hydrodynamics and recovery of the aquifer after saltwater intrusions.
Emmanuel Dubois, Joanna Doummar, Séverin Pistre, and Marie Larocque
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4275–4290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4275-2020, 2020
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The simulation of flow in a karst aquifer in a Mediterranean region using a semi-distributed linear reservoir model (geometry and parameterization) is calibrated and validated based on the analysis of high-resolution time series. The model is used to predict the effect of climatic variation. Although the spring is highly sensitive to rainfall variations, it is also resilient to warming temperature. Finally, this integrated conceptual method is reproducible for karst in semiarid regions.
Stephen R. Maples, Laura Foglia, Graham E. Fogg, and Reed M. Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2437–2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2437-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2437-2020, 2020
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In this study, we use a combination of local- and global-sensitivity analyses to evaluate the relative importance of (1) the configuration of subsurface alluvial geology and (2) the hydraulic properties of geologic facies on recharge processes. Results show that there is a large variation of recharge rates possible in a typical alluvial aquifer system and that the configuration proportion of sand and gravel deposits in the subsurface have a large impact on recharge rates.
Jian Song, Yun Yang, Xiaomin Sun, Jin Lin, Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, and Jichun Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2323–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2323-2020, 2020
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We proposed a novel many-objective simulation-optimization framework for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in Yanqi Basin, northwest China. The management model involving socioeconomic and environmental objectives was constructed to explore optimal water-use schemes. Three runoff scenarios were then specified to quantify the effect of runoff reduction related to climate change on water management. Results provide Pareto-optimal solutions for basin-scale water management.
Miao Jing, Rohini Kumar, Falk Heße, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1511–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, 2020
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This study investigates the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in a central German basin. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is also presented. This study indicates that the variability of responses increases with the amount of global warming, which might affect the cost of managing the groundwater system.
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