Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 07 Aug 2018
| 07 Aug 2018
Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods
Shanshan Wang
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia
(RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, 100029, China
Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu
Province, and Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster
Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia
(RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, 100029, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Yuxin Li, Sisi Chen, Jun Yin, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1077–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1077-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1077-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flash drought is referred to the rapid development of drought events with a fast decline of soil moisture, which has serious impacts on agriculture, the ecosystem, human health, and society. While flash droughts have received much research attention, there is no consensus on its definition. Here we used a stochastic water balance framework to quantify the timing of soil moisture crossing different thresholds, providing an efficient tool for diagnosing and monitoring flash droughts.
Junjiang Liu, Xing Yuan, Junhan Zeng, Yang Jiao, Yong Li, Lihua Zhong, and Ling Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts with the CSSPv2 land surface model and ECMWF meteorological forecasts reduce both the probabilistic and deterministic forecast error compared with the ensemble streamflow prediction approach during the first week. The deterministic forecast error can be further reduced in the first 72 h when combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The forecast skill for LSTM using only historical observations drops sharply after the first 24 h.
Miao Zhang and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5579–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We identify flash drought events by considering the decline rate of soil moisture and the drought persistency, and we detect the response of ecosystem carbon and water fluxes to flash droughts based on FLUXNET observations. We find rapid declines in carbon assimilation within 16–24 d of flash drought onset, where savannas show the highest sensitivity. Water use efficiency increases for forests but decreases for herbaceous ecosystems during the recovery stage of flash droughts.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper projects future changes in drought characteristics under different warming levels over a semiarid watershed based on hydroclimate simulations. Despite large uncertainties from climate models, we find that less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events would occur in the near future, suggesting that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of global warming.
Yu Zhang, Ming Pan, Justin Sheffield, Amanda L. Siemann, Colby K. Fisher, Miaoling Liang, Hylke E. Beck, Niko Wanders, Rosalyn F. MacCracken, Paul R. Houser, Tian Zhou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Rachel T. Pinker, Janice Bytheway, Christian D. Kummerow, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 241–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-241-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A global data record for all four terrestrial water budget variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and total water storage change) at 0.5° resolution and monthly scale for the period of 1984–2010 is developed by optimally merging a series of remote sensing products, in situ measurements, land surface model outputs, and atmospheric reanalysis estimates and enforcing the mass balance of water. Initial validations show the data record is reliable for climate related analysis.
Xing Yuan, Miao Zhang, Linying Wang, and Tian Zhou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5477–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges. Human interventions exacerbate hydrological drought conditions and result in earlier drought onset. By considering their effects in the forecast, the probabilistic drought forecast skill increases for both climate-model-based and climatology methods but their difference decreases, suggesting that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for drought forecasting in the Anthropocene.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Di Tian, Eric F. Wood, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated dynamic climate model sub-seasonal forecasts for important precipitation and temperature indices over the contiguous United States. The presence of active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events improved weekly mean precipitation forecast skill over most regions. Sub-seasonal forecast indices calculated from the daily forecast showed higher skill than temporally downscaled forecasts, suggesting the usefulness of the daily forecast for sub-seasonal hydrological forecasting.
Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, Linying Wang, Ziyan Zheng, Zhuguo Ma, Aizhong Ye, and Shaoming Peng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2437–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin to provide adaptive support in a changing environment. The system consists of downscaled NMME climate prediction, hydrological models calibrated against naturalized streamflow along the mainstream, and a post-processor to account for the human interventions implicitly. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper investigates the hydrological predictability by using reverse ESP simulations.
Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2453–2466, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the added value from climate forecast models over the Yellow River basin. Without considering the errors in hydrological models, the climate-model-based seasonal hydrological forecasts show higher skill than the climatological forecasts, especially during the rainy season. The improvement decreases especially at short leads when the post-processed forecasts are verified against observed streamflow, and the added value mainly exists in the transition from wet to dry seasons.
L. Yang, F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 775–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-775-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-775-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change on the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely-sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Amy Charlotte Green, Chris G. Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well at generating realistic weather radar images visually, for a large range of event types.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings revealed runoff generation is dominated by rainfall runoff in the YZ, and the largest glacier runoff contribution is in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff trends indicate an increase in the NX but a decrease in the NX-BXK for 1971–2020, due to contrasting precipitation changes. Total runoff across the sub-basins will consistently increase through the 21st century, mostly resulting from increased rainfall runoff.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely-sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach which is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, and to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212), as well as to remotely-sensed satellite estimates.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J.,
and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and
flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.
Banacos, P. C. and Schultz, D. M.: The use of moisture flux convergence in
forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives,
Weather Forecast., 20, 351–366, 2005.
Barnston, A. G., Tippett, M. K., L'Heureux, M. L., Li, S., and DeWitt, D. G.:
Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11: Is our
capability increasing?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 631–651,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1, 2012.
Becker, E. J., van den Dool, H. M., and Pena, M.: Short-termclimate extremes:
Prediction skill and predictability, J. Climate, 26, 512–531,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00177.1, 2013.
Boer, G. J., Kharin, V. V., and Merryfield, W. J.: Decadal predictability and
forecast skill, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1817–1833, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1705-0,
2013.
Bretherton, C. S., Smith, C., and Wallace, J. M.: An intercomparison of
methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data, J. Climate, 5,
541–560, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Burgers, G. and Stephenson, D. B.: The “normality” of El Niño, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 26, 1027–1030, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900161, 1999.
Carvalho, L. M. V., Silva, A. E., Jones, C., Liebmann, B., Silva Dias, P. L.,
and Rocha, H. R.: Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the
South America Monsoon system, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1865–1880,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0806-2, 2011.
Chen, M., Xie, P., Janowiak, J. E., and Arkin, P. A.: Global Land
Precipitation: A 50-yr Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, J.
Hydrometeorol., 3, 249–266,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0249:GLPAYM>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler,
M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J.,
Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the
data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Ding, Y. H. and Chan, J. C. L.: The East Asian summer monsoon: An overview,
Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z,
2005.
Gershunov, A.: ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and
temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Implications for
long-range predictability, J. Climate, 11, 3192–3203,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3192:EIOIER>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Gimeno, L., Stohl, A., Trigo, R. M., Dominguez, F., Yoshimura, K., Yu, L.,
Drumond, A., Durán-Quesada, A. M., and Nieto, R.: Oceanic and terrestrial
sources of continental precipitation, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG4003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012RG000389, 2012.
Hoerling, M. P., Kumar, A., and Zhong, M.: El Niño, La Niña, and the
nonlinearity of their teleconnections, J. Climate, 10, 1769–1786, 1997.
Hu, Z.-Z., Kumar, A., Huang, B., Zhu, J., and Guan, Y.: Prediction Skill of
North Pacific Variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Climate, 27,
4263–4272, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00633.1, 2014.
Huang, B., Thorne, P., Smith, T., Liu, W., Lawrimore, J., Banzon, V., Zhang,
H., Peterson, T., and Menne, M.: Further Exploring and Quantifying
Uncertainties for Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)
Version 4 (v4), J. Climate, 29, 3119–3142, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0430.1,
2016.
Huang, R., Chen, J., and Huang, G.: Characteristics and variations of the
East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China, Adv.
Atmos. Sci., 24, 993–1023, 2007.
Kirtman, B. P., Min, D., Infanti, J. M., Kinter, J. L., Paolino, D. A.,
Zhang, Q., van den Dool, H., Saha, S., Mendez, M. P., Becker, E., Peng, P.,
Tripp, P., Huang, J., DeWitt, D. G., Tippett, M. K., Barnston, A. G., Li, S.,
Rosati, A., Schubert, S. D., Rienecker, M., Suarez, M., Li, Z. E., Marshak,
J., Lim, Y.-K., Tribbia, J., Pegion, K., Merryfield, W. J., Denis, B., and
Wood, E. F.: The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1
seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal
prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 585–601,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1, 2014.
Koster, R. D., Suarez, M. J., and Heiser, M.: Variance and predictability of
precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales, J. Hydrometeorol., 1,
26–46, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001<0026:VAPOPA>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Koster, R. D., Suarez, M. J., Liu, P., Jambor, U., Berg, A., Kistler, M.,
Reichle, R., Rodell, M., and Famiglietti, J.: Realistic initialization of
land surface states: Impact on subseasonal forecast skill, J. Hydrometeorol.,
5, 1049–1063, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-387.1, 2004.
Kumar, A. and Hoerling, M. P.: Annual cycle of Pacific–North American
seasonal predictability associated with different phases of ENSO, J. Climate,
11, 3295–3308, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3295:ACOPNA>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Kumar, A., Peng, P., and Chen, M.: Is there a relationship between potential
and actual skill?, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2220–2227,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00287.1, 2014.
Lau, K. M. and Weng, H.: Coherent modes of global SST and summer rainfall
over China: An assessment of the regional impacts of the 1997–98 El Nino, J.
Climate, 14, 1294–1308,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1294:CMOGSA>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., and Zsoter, E.: Extending medium-range
predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe, Nat. Commun., 5,
5382, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6382, 2014.
Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D. S., and Zsoter, E.: ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for
atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
11852–11858, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320, 2016a.
Lavers, D. A., Waliser, D. E., Ralph, F. M., and Dettinger, M. D.:
Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation:
Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme
precipitation and flooding, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2275–2282,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067765, 2016b.
L'Heureux, M. L., Takahashi, K., Watkins, A. B., Barnston, A. G., Becker, E.
J., Di Liberto, T. E., Gamble, F., Gottschalck, J., Halpert, M. S., Huang,
B., Mosquera-Vásquez, K., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Observing and Predicting
the 2015/2016 El Niño, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1363–1382,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1, 2017.
Li, C. F., Scaife, A., and Lu, R. Y.: Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze
river valley summer rainfall, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 094002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002, 2016.
Luo, L. and Wood, E. F.: Assessing the idealized predictability of
precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 33, L04708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025292, 2006.
Ma, F., Yuan, X., and Ye, A.: Seasonal drought predictability and forecast
skill over China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 8264–8275,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023185, 2015.
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., Wick, G. A., Gutman, S. I., Dettinger, M. D.,
Cayan, D. R., and White, A. B.: Flooding on California's Russian River: Role
of atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13801,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026689, 2006.
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer,
D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang H.-Y., Iredell, M., Ek, M., Meng, J., Yang, R., van
den Dool, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, W., Chen, M., and Becker E.: The NCEP climate
forecast system version 2, J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1, 2014.
Schmitz, J. T. and Mullen, S. L.: Water vapor transportassociated with the
summertime North American Monsoon as depicted by ECMWF analyses, J. Climate,
9, 1621–1634, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1621:WVTAWT>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Shukla, S., Roberts, J., Hoell, A., Funk, C. C., Robertson, F., and Kirtman,
B.: Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast
skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events
over East Africa, Clim. Dynam., 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z, 2016.
Sooraj, K. P., Annamalai, H., Kumar, A., and Wang, H.: A Comprehensive
Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecasts over the Tropics, Weather Forecast., 27,
3–27, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00014.1, 2012.
Tian, D., Wood, E. F., and Yuan, X.: CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation
and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017,
2017.
Vitart, F., Ardilouze, C., Bonet, A., Brookshaw, A., Chen, M., Codorean, C.,
Déqué, M., Ferranti, L., Fucile, E., Fuentes, M., Hendon, H., Hendon,
H., Hodgson, J., Kang, H.-S., Kumar, A., Lin, H., Liu, G., Liu, X., Malguzzi,
P., Mallas I., Manoussakis, M., Mastrangelo, D., MacLachlan, C., McLean, P.,
Minami, A., Mladek, R., Nakazawa,, T. , Najm, S., Nie, Y., Rixen, M.,
Robertson, A.W., Ruti, P., Sun, C. Takaya, Y., Tolstykh, M., Venuti, F.
Waliser, D., Woolnough, S., Wu, T., Won, D.-J., Xiao, H., Zaripov, R., and
Zhang, L.: The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project database, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1, 2017.
Wang, B., Wu, R., and Fu, X.: Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does
ENSO affect the East Asian climate?, J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Wang, S., Huang, J., He, Y., and Guan, Y. P.: Combined effects of the Pacific
decadal oscillation and El Nino-southern oscillation on global land dry–wet
changes, Sci. Rep., 4, 6651, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep06651, 2014.
Wu, R., Hu, Z.-Z., and Kirtman, B. P.: Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall
anomalies in East Asia, J. Climate, 16, 3741–3757,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3742:EOERAI>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Xie, S. P., Kosaka, Y., Du, Y., Hu, K., Chowdary, J. S., and Huang, G.:
Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in
post-ENSO summer: A review, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33, 411–432,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6, 2016.
Yang, S., Zhang, Z., Kousky, V. E., Higgins, R. W., Yoo, S. H., Liang, J.,
and Fan, Y.: Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon
in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Climate, 21, 3755–3775,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1961.1, 2008.
Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., Luo, L., and Pan, M.: A first look at Climate Forecast
System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 38, L13402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047792, 2011.
Yuan, X., Roundy, J. K., Wood, E. F., and Sheffiled, J.: Seasonal forecasting
of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX
basins, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1895–1912,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1, 2015.
Yuan, X., Wang, S., and Hu, Z.-Z.: Do climate change and El Niño increase
likelihood of Yangtze River extreme rainfall?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99,
S113–S117, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0089.1, 2018.
Zhai, P., Yu, R., Guo, Y., Li, Q., Ren, X., Wang, Y., Xu, W., Liu, Y., and
Ding, Y.: The strong El Niño of 2015/16 and its dominant impacts on
global and China's climate, J. Meteorol. Res., 30, 283–297,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-6101-3, 2016.
Short summary
Long-range flood forecast is very challenging over monsoonal regions. We investigate the potential of extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods by using atmospheric moisture flux prediction with a perfect model assumption. The finding suggests a potential to use atmospheric moisture flux which is more predictable than precipitation at the seasonal timescale, to improve flood forecasting and early warning, especially during post-El Niño summers.
Long-range flood forecast is very challenging over monsoonal regions. We investigate the...
