Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 07 Aug 2018
| 07 Aug 2018
Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods
Shanshan Wang
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia
(RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, 100029, China
Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu
Province, and Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster
Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia
(RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, 100029, China
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28 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation patterns in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin Y. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF24135
- Effects of extreme flooding on aquatic vegetation cover in Shengjin Lake, China W. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14459
- Flood risk and its reduction in China Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.020
- Moisture Transport versus Precipitation Change in Sub-Basins of the Yangtze River Basin J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040622
- Bias Correction for Precipitation Simulated by RegCM4 over the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the Mixed Distribution Quantile Mapping Method B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121566
- Cost of high-level flooding as a consequence of climate change driver?: A case study of China’s flood-prone regions M. Islam & C. Wang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111944
- Characteristics and risk management of urban surface flooding in Guangzhou, China: Insights from 2022 ground monitoring X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101831
- Climate Variability and Floods—A Global Review Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071399
- Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF G. Dai et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033860
- Climate extremes and socioeconomic impact of El Niño and La Niña events M. Nizamani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101276
- Climate variability and floods in China - A review Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103434
- Unravelling the origin of the atmospheric moisture deficit that leads to droughts L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00192-4
- Submerged Vegetation and Water Quality Degeneration From Serious Flooding in Liangzi Lake, China L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.01504
- Critical hydro-geomorphological characteristics related to lateral erosion–deposition difference within the multilevel bifurcation system of the Yangtze Estuary, China B. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133497
- Spatiotemporal variability at seasonal and interannual scales of terrestrial water variation over Tibetan Plateau from geodetic observations Y. Pan et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2024.2331553
- Effects of water depth on the biomass of two dominant submerged macrophyte species in floodplain lakes during flood and dry seasons Z. Meng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162690
- Dynamics of atmospheric water resources over the Yangtze River Basin: Historical patterns and future projections Y. Li & J. Guo https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101745
- Recurring dipole flooding patterns in East Asia throughout the Holocene Q. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2026.01.052
- Machine Learning Modeling of Climate Variability Impact on River Runoff M. Norel et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091177
- Improving the heavy rainfall forecasting using a weighted deep learning model Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1116672
- A dynamic von Mises-based model to evaluate the impact of urbanization and climate change on flood timing in Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins, China P. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131120
- Spatiotemporal characteristics and estimates of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin using GLDAS data Z. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6813
- Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China F. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018
- Identification of drought-flood abrupt alternation thresholds triggering vegetation loss L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147392
- Emerging energy signals advance early warnings of extreme precipitation T. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71214-4
- Enhanced Impacts of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the Dry/Wet Variations Over Northwest China S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036533
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Inter-seasonal variability in predictability of South China seasonal precipitation S. Zhen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc021
- Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the ‘7·20’ extraordinary typhoon‐rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China W. Wang & X. Yuan https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8386
- Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation patterns in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin Y. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF24135
- Effects of extreme flooding on aquatic vegetation cover in Shengjin Lake, China W. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14459
- Flood risk and its reduction in China Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.020
- Moisture Transport versus Precipitation Change in Sub-Basins of the Yangtze River Basin J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040622
- Bias Correction for Precipitation Simulated by RegCM4 over the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the Mixed Distribution Quantile Mapping Method B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121566
- Cost of high-level flooding as a consequence of climate change driver?: A case study of China’s flood-prone regions M. Islam & C. Wang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111944
- Characteristics and risk management of urban surface flooding in Guangzhou, China: Insights from 2022 ground monitoring X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101831
- Climate Variability and Floods—A Global Review Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071399
- Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF G. Dai et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033860
- Climate extremes and socioeconomic impact of El Niño and La Niña events M. Nizamani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101276
- Climate variability and floods in China - A review Z. Kundzewicz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103434
- Unravelling the origin of the atmospheric moisture deficit that leads to droughts L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00192-4
- Submerged Vegetation and Water Quality Degeneration From Serious Flooding in Liangzi Lake, China L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.01504
- Critical hydro-geomorphological characteristics related to lateral erosion–deposition difference within the multilevel bifurcation system of the Yangtze Estuary, China B. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133497
- Spatiotemporal variability at seasonal and interannual scales of terrestrial water variation over Tibetan Plateau from geodetic observations Y. Pan et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2024.2331553
- Effects of water depth on the biomass of two dominant submerged macrophyte species in floodplain lakes during flood and dry seasons Z. Meng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162690
- Dynamics of atmospheric water resources over the Yangtze River Basin: Historical patterns and future projections Y. Li & J. Guo https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101745
- Recurring dipole flooding patterns in East Asia throughout the Holocene Q. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2026.01.052
- Machine Learning Modeling of Climate Variability Impact on River Runoff M. Norel et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091177
- Improving the heavy rainfall forecasting using a weighted deep learning model Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1116672
- A dynamic von Mises-based model to evaluate the impact of urbanization and climate change on flood timing in Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins, China P. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131120
- Spatiotemporal characteristics and estimates of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin using GLDAS data Z. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6813
- Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China F. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018
- Identification of drought-flood abrupt alternation thresholds triggering vegetation loss L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147392
- Emerging energy signals advance early warnings of extreme precipitation T. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71214-4
- Enhanced Impacts of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the Dry/Wet Variations Over Northwest China S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036533
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 11 Jun 2026
Short summary
Long-range flood forecast is very challenging over monsoonal regions. We investigate the potential of extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods by using atmospheric moisture flux prediction with a perfect model assumption. The finding suggests a potential to use atmospheric moisture flux which is more predictable than precipitation at the seasonal timescale, to improve flood forecasting and early warning, especially during post-El Niño summers.
Long-range flood forecast is very challenging over monsoonal regions. We investigate the...
