Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
11 Jul 2017
Review article |
| 11 Jul 2017
The evolution of process-based hydrologic models: historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism
Martyn P. Clark
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Luis Samaniego
UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Ross A. Woods
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Katrina E. Bennett
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Xitian Cai
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Andrew W. Wood
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Christa D. Peters-Lidard
Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
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Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
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This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Yanchen Zheng, Gemma Coxon, Mostaquimur Rahman, Ross Woods, Saskia Salwey, Youtong Rong, and Doris Wendt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-211, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Groundwater is vital for people and ecosystems, but most physical models lack surface-groundwater interactions representation, leading to inaccurate streamflow predictions in groundwater-rich areas. This study presents DECIPHeR-GW v1, which links surface and groundwater systems to improve predictions of streamflow and groundwater levels. Tested across England and Wales, DECIPHeR-GW shows high accuracy, especially in south east England, making it a valuable tool for large-scale water management.
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, Arjan Droste, and Remko Uijlenhoet
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Abbas El Hachem, Jochen Seidel, Tess O'Hara, Roberto Villalobos Herrera, Aart Overeem, Remko Uijlenhoet, András Bárdossy, and Lotte de Vos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4715–4731, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4715-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4715-2024, 2024
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Pengfei Xue, Chenfu Huang, Yafang Zhong, Michael Notaro, Miraj B. Kayastha, Xing Zhou, Chuyan Zhao, Christa Peters-Lidard, Carlos Cruz, and Eric Kemp
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-146, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Wouter R. Berghuijs, Ross A. Woods, Bailey J. Anderson, Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2954, 2024
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Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew Wood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, 2024
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Wouter J. M. Knoben, Ashwin Raman, Gaby J. Gründemann, Mukesh Kumar, Alain Pietroniro, Chaopeng Shen, Yalan Song, Cyril Thébault, Katie van Werkhoven, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
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Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
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This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Athanasios Tsiokanos, Martine Rutten, Ruud J. van der Ent, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3327–3345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3327-2024, 2024
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We focus on past high-flow events to find flood drivers in the Geul. We also explore flood drivers’ trends across various timescales and develop a new method to detect the main direction of a trend. Our results show that extreme 24 h precipitation alone is typically insufficient to cause floods. The combination of extreme rainfall and wet initial conditions determines the chance of flooding. Precipitation that leads to floods increases in winter, whereas no consistent trends are found in summer.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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The July 2021 flood in Central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the past decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory was only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps better prepare for future extreme floods.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
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We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Luuk D. van der Valk, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Rolf W. Hut, Aart Overeem, Bas Walraven, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2811–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2811-2024, 2024
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Microwave links, often part of mobile phone networks, can be used to measure rainfall along the link path by determining the signal loss caused by rainfall. We use high-frequency data of multiple microwave links to recreate commonly used sampling strategies. For time intervals up to 1 min, the influence of sampling strategies on estimated rainfall intensities is relatively little, while for intervals longer than 5–15 min, the sampling strategy can have significant influences on the estimates.
Yanchen Zheng, Gemma Coxon, Ross Woods, Daniel Power, Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez, David McJannet, Rafael Rosolem, Jianzhu Li, and Ping Feng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1999–2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1999-2024, 2024
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Reanalysis soil moisture products are a vital basis for hydrological and environmental research. Previous product evaluation is limited by the scale difference (point and grid scale). This paper adopts cosmic ray neutron sensor observations, a novel technique that provides root-zone soil moisture at field scale. In this paper, global harmonized CRNS observations were used to assess products. ERA5-Land, SMAPL4, CFSv2, CRA40 and GLEAM show better performance than MERRA2, GLDAS-Noah and JRA55.
Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Aafke M. Schipper, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-112, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The contribution of groundwater to groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is declining as a result of an increase in groundwater abstractions and climate change. This may lead to loss of habitat and biodiversity. This proposed framework enables the mapping and understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of GDEs on a large scale. The next step is to assess the global impacts of climate change and water use on GDEs' extent and health.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of the reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers and data users.
Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Gloria Chinwendu Okafor, Bernhard Tischbein, and Hadush Meresa
Proc. IAHS, 385, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, 2024
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In this study, the MPR-mHM technique was applied in four data-scarce basins in Nigeria. Remotely sensed rainfall datasets were used as model forcings to evaluate the mHM capability in reproducing observed stream discharge under single and multivariable model calibration frameworks. Overall, model calibration performances displayed satisfactory outputs as evident in the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) scores across most basins.
Sneha Chevuru, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jerom P. M. Aerts, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-465, 2024
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This paper integrates PCR-GLOBWB 2 hydrological model with WOFOST crop growth model to analyze mutual feedbacks between hydrology and crop growth. It quantifies one-way and two-way feedbacks between hydrology and crop growth, revealing patterns in crop yield and irrigation water use. Dynamic interactions enhance understanding of climate variability impacts on food production, highlighting the importance of two-way model coupling for accurate assessments.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
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Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Louise J. Schreyers, Tim H. M. van Emmerik, Thanh-Khiet L. Bui, Khoa L. van Thi, Bart Vermeulen, Hong-Q. Nguyen, Nicholas Wallerstein, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Martine van der Ploeg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-589-2024, 2024
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River plastic emissions into the ocean are of global concern, but the transfer dynamics between fresh water and the marine environment remain poorly understood. We developed a simple Eulerian approach to estimate the net and total plastic transport in tidal rivers. Applied to the Saigon River, Vietnam, we found that net plastic transport amounted to less than one-third of total transport, highlighting the need to better integrate tidal dynamics in plastic transport and emission models.
Linda Bogerd, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-247-2024, 2024
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Algorithms merge satellite radiometer data from various frequency channels, each tied to a different footprint size. We studied the uncertainty associated with sampling (over the Netherlands using 4 years of data) as precipitation is highly variable in space and time by simulating ground-based data as satellite footprints. Though sampling affects precipitation estimates, it doesn’t explain all discrepancies. Overall, uncertainties in the algorithm seem more influential than how data is sampled.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Bich Ngoc Tran, Johannes van der Kwast, Solomon Seyoum, Remko Uijlenhoet, Graham Jewitt, and Marloes Mul
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4505–4528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4505-2023, 2023
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Satellite data are increasingly used to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) or the amount of water moving from plants, soils, and water bodies into the atmosphere over large areas. Uncertainties from various sources affect the accuracy of these calculations. This study reviews the methods to assess the uncertainties of such ET estimations. It provides specific recommendations for a comprehensive assessment that assists in the potential uses of these data for research, monitoring, and management.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andrew Wood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2326, 2023
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There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales that global climate models can produce data and that needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We identified a potential set of water use decision metrics to assess their credibility in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 can reliably reproduce many of these metrics and shows potential to support long-range water resource decisions.
Nathan Alec Conroy, Jeffrey M. Heikoop, Emma Lathrop, Dea Musa, Brent D. Newman, Chonggang Xu, Rachael E. McCaully, Carli A. Arendt, Verity G. Salmon, Amy Breen, Vladimir Romanovsky, Katrina E. Bennett, Cathy J. Wilson, and Stan D. Wullschleger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3987–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, 2023
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This study combines field observations, non-parametric statistical analyses, and thermodynamic modeling to characterize the environmental causes of the spatial variability in soil pore water solute concentrations across two Arctic catchments with varying extents of permafrost. Vegetation type, soil moisture and redox conditions, weathering and hydrologic transport, and mineral solubility were all found to be the primary drivers of the existing spatial variability of some soil pore water solutes.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
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DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Bettina Schaefli, Ross Woods, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Joshua R. Larsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2577–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, 2023
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We provide a dataset of snow water equivalent, the depth of liquid water that results from melting a given depth of snow. The dataset contains 11 071 sites over the Northern Hemisphere, spans the period 1950–2022, and is based on daily observations of snow depth on the ground and a model. The dataset fills a lack of accessible historical ground snow data, and it can be used for a variety of applications such as the impact of climate change on global and regional snow and water resources.
Ian Shirley, Sebastian Uhlemann, John Peterson, Katrina Bennett, Susan S. Hubbard, and Baptiste Dafflon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-968, 2023
Preprint archived
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Snow depth has a strong impact on soil temperatures and carbon cycling in the arctic. Because of this, we want to understand why snow is deeper in some places than others. Using cameras mounted on a drone, we mapped snow depth, vegetation height, and elevation across a watershed in Alaska. In this paper, we develop novel techniques using image processing and machine learning to characterize the influence of topography and shrubs on snow depth in the watershed.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
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Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Jannis M. Hoch, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023, 2023
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To facilitate locally relevant simulations over large areas, global hydrological models (GHMs) have moved towards ever finer spatial resolutions. After a decade-long quest for hyper-resolution (i.e. equal to or smaller than 1 km), the presented work is a first application of a GHM at 1 km resolution over Europe. This not only shows that hyper-resolution can be achieved but also allows for a thorough evaluation of model results at unprecedented detail and the formulation of future research.
Xiang Huang, Charles J. Abolt, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-8, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Near-surface humidity is a sensitive parameter for predicting snow depth. Greater values of the relative humidity are obtained if the saturation vapor pressure was calculated with over-ice correction compared to without during the winter. During the summer thawing period, the choice of whether or not to employ an over-ice correction corresponds to significant variability in simulated thaw depths.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
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Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Bahar Bahrami, Anke Hildebrandt, Stephan Thober, Corinna Rebmann, Rico Fischer, Luis Samaniego, Oldrich Rakovec, and Rohini Kumar
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6957–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, 2022
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Leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are crucial components to carbon cycle, and are closely linked to water cycle in many ways. We develop a Parsimonious Canopy Model (PCM) to simulate GPP and LAI at stand scale, and show its applicability over a diverse range of deciduous broad-leaved forest biomes. With its modular structure, the PCM is able to adapt with existing data requirements, and run in either a stand-alone mode or as an interface linked to hydrologic models.
Xu Zhang, Jinbao Li, Qianjin Dong, and Ross A. Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-309, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Accurately estimating long-term evaporation is important for describing water balance. Budyko framework already incorporates precipitation and potential evaporation, while water storage capacity and climate seasonality are usually ignored. Here, we analytically generalize Budyko framework through the Ponce-Shetty model, and physically account these two factors. Our generalized equations perform better than varying Budyko-type equations, and improve the robustness and physical interpretation.
Katrina E. Bennett, Greta Miller, Robert Busey, Min Chen, Emma R. Lathrop, Julian B. Dann, Mara Nutt, Ryan Crumley, Shannon L. Dillard, Baptiste Dafflon, Jitendra Kumar, W. Robert Bolton, Cathy J. Wilson, Colleen M. Iversen, and Stan D. Wullschleger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3269–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3269-2022, 2022
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In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, climate shifts are changing ecosystems, resulting in alterations in snow, shrubs, and permafrost. Thicker snow under shrubs can lead to warmer permafrost because deeper snow will insulate the ground from the cold winter. In this paper, we use modeling to characterize snow to better understand the drivers of snow distribution. Eventually, this work will be used to improve models used to study future changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic snow patterns.
Amy McNally, Jossy Jacob, Kristi Arsenault, Kimberly Slinski, Daniel P. Sarmiento, Andrew Hoell, Shahriar Pervez, James Rowland, Mike Budde, Sujay Kumar, Christa Peters-Lidard, and James P. Verdin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3115–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, 2022
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams described here generate routine estimates of snow, soil moisture, runoff, and other variables useful for tracking water availability. These data are hosted by NASA and USGS data portals for public use.
Femke A. Jansen, Remko Uijlenhoet, Cor M. J. Jacobs, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2875–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, 2022
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We studied the controls on open water evaporation with a focus on Lake IJssel, the Netherlands, by analysing eddy covariance observations over two summer periods at two locations at the borders of the lake. Wind speed and the vertical vapour pressure gradient can explain most of the variation in observed evaporation, which is in agreement with Dalton's model. We argue that the distinct characteristics of inland waterbodies need to be taken into account when parameterizing their evaporation.
Wanshu Nie, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Iliana E. Mladenova, Karim Bergaoui, Abheera Hazra, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sarith P. Mahanama, Rachael McDonnell, David M. Mocko, and Mahdi Navari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2365-2022, 2022
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The MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region faces significant food and water insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we investigate the value of assimilating remote sensing data sets into an Earth system model to help build an effective drought monitoring system and support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. We highlight incorporating satellite-informed vegetation conditions into the model as being one of the key processes for a successful application for the region.
Marcela Silva, Ashley M. Matheny, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Dimetre Triadis, Justine E. Missik, Gil Bohrer, and Edoardo Daly
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2619–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2619-2022, 2022
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Our study introduces FETCH3, a ready-to-use, open-access model that simulates the water fluxes across the soil, roots, and stem. To test the model capabilities, we tested it against exact solutions and a case study. The model presented considerably small errors when compared to the exact solutions and was able to correctly represent transpiration patterns when compared to experimental data. The results show that FETCH3 can correctly simulate above- and below-ground water transport.
Robert Schweppe, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Matthias Kelbling, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, and Luis Samaniego
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 859–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-859-2022, 2022
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The recently released multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) tool enables
environmental modelers to efficiently use extensive datasets for model setups.
It flexibly ingests the datasets using user-defined data–parameter relationships
and rescales parameter fields to given model resolutions. Modern
land surface models especially benefit from MPR through increased transparency and
flexibility in modeling decisions. Thus, MPR empowers more sound and robust
simulations of the Earth system.
Wagner Wolff, Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 485–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-485-2022, 2022
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The existing infrastructure for cellular communication is promising for ground-based rainfall remote sensing. Rain-induced signal attenuation is used in dedicated algorithms for retrieving rainfall depth along commercial microwave links (CMLs) between cell phone towers. This processing is a source of many uncertainties about input data, algorithm structures, parameters, CML network, and local climate. Application of a stochastic optimization method leads to improved CML rainfall estimates.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6523–6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, 2021
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Using a statistical model that can also take complex systems into account, the most important factors affecting wheat yield in Germany are determined. Different spatial damage potentials are taken into account. In many parts of Germany, yield losses are caused by too much soil water in spring. Negative heat effects as well as damaging soil drought are identified especially for north-eastern Germany. The model is able to explain years with exceptionally high yields (2014) and losses (2003, 2018).
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
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Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
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We introduce a simple analytical framework that allows us to estimate to what extent large-scale groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater levels and streamflow. It also calculates which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which part from a reduction in streamflow. Global depletion rates obtained with the framework are compared with estimates from satellites, from global- and continental-scale groundwater models, and from in situ datasets.
Dylan R. Harp, Vitaly Zlotnik, Charles J. Abolt, Bob Busey, Sofia T. Avendaño, Brent D. Newman, Adam L. Atchley, Elchin Jafarov, Cathy J. Wilson, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere, 15, 4005–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, 2021
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Polygon-shaped landforms present in relatively flat Arctic tundra result in complex landscape-scale water drainage. The drainage pathways and the time to transition from inundated conditions to drained have important implications for heat and carbon transport. Using fundamental hydrologic principles, we investigate the drainage pathways and timing of individual polygons, providing insights into the effects of polygon geometry and preferential flow direction on drainage pathways and timing.
Guoqiang Tang, Martyn P. Clark, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, Dominique Brunet, and Paul H. Whitfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3337–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021, 2021
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Probabilistic estimates are useful to quantify the uncertainties in meteorological datasets. This study develops the Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America (EMDNA). EMDNA has 100 members with daily precipitation amount, mean daily temperature, and daily temperature range at 0.1° spatial resolution from 1979 to 2018. It is expected to be useful for hydrological and meteorological applications in North America.
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4061–4080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, 2021
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Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Jan L. Gunnink, Hung Van Pham, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3297–3319, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3297-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3297-2021, 2021
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In the Mekong Delta (Vietnam) groundwater is important for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. Increased pumping of groundwater has caused land subsidence and increased the risk of salinization, thereby endangering the livelihood of the population in the delta. We made a model of the salinity of the groundwater by integrating different sources of information and determined fresh groundwater volumes. The resulting model can be used by researchers and policymakers.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
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We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Thorsten Wagener, Dragan Savic, David Butler, Reza Ahmadian, Tom Arnot, Jonathan Dawes, Slobodan Djordjevic, Roger Falconer, Raziyeh Farmani, Debbie Ford, Jan Hofman, Zoran Kapelan, Shunqi Pan, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2721–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021, 2021
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How can we effectively train PhD candidates both (i) across different knowledge domains in water science and engineering and (ii) in computer science? To address this issue, the Water Informatics in Science and Engineering Centre for Doctoral Training (WISE CDT) offers a postgraduate programme that fosters enhanced levels of innovation and collaboration by training a cohort of engineers and scientists at the boundary of water informatics, science and engineering.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
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Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
Simone Gelsinari, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Edoardo Daly, Jos van Dam, Remko Uijlenhoet, Nicholas Fewster-Young, and Rebecca Doble
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2261–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2261-2021, 2021
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Estimates of recharge to groundwater are often driven by biophysical processes occurring in the soil column and, particularly in remote areas, are also always affected by uncertainty. Using data assimilation techniques to merge remotely sensed observations with outputs of numerical models is one way to reduce this uncertainty. Here, we show the benefits of using such a technique with satellite evapotranspiration rates and coupled hydrogeological models applied to a semi-arid site in Australia.
Edward R. Jones, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Manzoor Qadir, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 237–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-237-2021, 2021
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Continually improving and affordable wastewater management provides opportunities for both pollution reduction and clean water supply augmentation. This study provides a global outlook on the state of domestic and industrial wastewater production, collection, treatment and reuse. Our results can serve as a baseline in evaluating progress towards policy goals (e.g. Sustainable Development Goals) and as input data in large-scale water resource assessments (e.g. water quality modelling).
Jolijn van Engelenburg, Erik van Slobbe, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Petra Hellegers
Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 14, 1–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, 2021
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This study analysed the impact of extreme weather events, water quality deterioration, and a growing drinking water demand on the sustainability of drinking water supply in the Netherlands. The results of the case studies were compared to sustainability issues for drinking water supply that are experienced worldwide. This resulted in a set of sustainability characteristics describing drinking water supply on a local scale in terms of hydrological, technical, and socio-economic characteristics.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
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Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
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We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Guoqiang Tang, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Vincent Vionnet, and Paul H. Whitfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2381–2409, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2381-2020, 2020
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Station observations are critical for hydrological and meteorological studies, but they often contain missing values and have short measurement periods. This study developed a serially complete dataset for North America (SCDNA) from 1979 to 2018 for 27 276 precipitation and temperature stations. SCDNA is built on multiple data sources and infilling/reconstruction strategies to achieve high-quality estimates which can be used for a variety of applications.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
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Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Sujay V. Kumar, Thomas R. Holmes, Rajat Bindlish, Richard de Jeu, and Christa Peters-Lidard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3431–3450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3431-2020, 2020
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Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is a byproduct of the soil moisture retrieval from passive microwave instruments. This study demonstrates that VOD information can be utilized for improving land surface water budget and carbon conditions through data assimilation.
Shraddhanand Shukla, Kristi R. Arsenault, Abheera Hazra, Christa Peters-Lidard, Randal D. Koster, Frank Davenport, Tamuka Magadzire, Chris Funk, Sujay Kumar, Amy McNally, Augusto Getirana, Greg Husak, Ben Zaitchik, Jim Verdin, Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa, and Inbal Becker-Reshef
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1187–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020, 2020
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The region of southern Africa is prone to climate-driven food insecurity events, as demonstrated by the major drought event in 2015–2016. This study demonstrates that recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System-based root-zone soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products are well correlated with interannual regional crop yield, can identify below-normal crop yield events and provide skillful crop yield forecasts, and hence support early warning of food insecurity.
Thomas C. van Leth, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1797-2020, 2020
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We present a method of using collocated microwave link instruments to estimate the average size distribution of raindrops along a path of several kilometers. Our method is validated using simulated fields as well as five laser disdrometers installed along a path. We also present preliminary results from an experimental setup measuring at 26 and 38 GHz along a 2.2 km path. We show that a retrieval on the basis of microwave links can be highly accurate, provided the base power level is stable.
Miao Jing, Rohini Kumar, Falk Heße, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1511–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020, 2020
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This study investigates the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in a central German basin. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is also presented. This study indicates that the variability of responses increases with the amount of global warming, which might affect the cost of managing the groundwater system.
Sebastian J. Gnann, Nicholas J. K. Howden, and Ross A. Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-561-2020, 2020
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In many places, seasonal variability in precipitation and evapotranspiration (climate) leads to seasonal variability in river flow (streamflow). In this work, we explore how climate seasonality is transformed into streamflow seasonality and what controls this transformation (e.g. climate aridity and geology). The results might be used in grouping catchments, predicting the seasonal streamflow regime in ungauged catchments, and building hydrological simulation models.
Joeri van Engelen, Jarno Verkaik, Jude King, Eman R. Nofal, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5175–5198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5175-2019, 2019
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The Nile Delta is an important agricultural area with a fast-growing population, relying increasingly on groundwater. However, saline groundwater extends far land-inward, rendering groundwater close to the coastal zone useless for consumption or agriculture. It normally is assumed that this is caused by mixing due to velocity differences, but here we show that it might also be caused by the coastline being located more land-inward 8000 years ago.
Adrien Guyot, Jayaram Pudashine, Alain Protat, Remko Uijlenhoet, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Alan Seed, and Jeffrey P. Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4737–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4737-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4737-2019, 2019
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We characterised for the first time the rainfall microphysics for Southern Hemisphere temperate latitudes. Co-located instruments were deployed to provide information on the sampling effect and spatio-temporal variabilities at micro scales. Substantial differences were found across the instruments, increasing with increasing values of the rain rate. Specific relations for reflectivity–rainfall are presented together with related uncertainties for drizzle and stratiform and convective rainfall.
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jim E. Freer, and Ross A. Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4323–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, 2019
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The accuracy of model simulations can be quantified with so-called efficiency metrics. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) has been often used in hydrology, but recently the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) is gaining in popularity. We show that lessons learned about which NSE scores are
acceptabledo not necessarily translate well into understanding of the KGE metric.
Ashley J. Wright, David E. Robertson, Jeffrey P. Walker, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper details the development of a methodology to optimize the weighting of rainfall gauges for hydrologic simulation. In particular, catchments with a low gauge density and/or proportion of observations available are not well suited to this methodology. Application of this methodology with models that are consistent with a conceptual understanding of the rainfall-runoff process yield improvements of 7.1 % in evaluation periods.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, A. Sankarasubramanian, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-288, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Reliable long-range hydrologic forecasts (e.g. month-ahead streamflow conditions) greatly help to facilitate water resources management. Toward this, climate forecasts are utilized to implement hydrologic models, with past hydrologic simulations used to initialize the land-surface conditions of models. Since there are uncertainties associated with the simulated conditions, Data Assimilation (DA) techniques can be employed to reduce such errors and consequently improve hydrologic forecasting.
Stephan Thober, Matthias Cuntz, Matthias Kelbling, Rohini Kumar, Juliane Mai, and Luis Samaniego
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2501–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, 2019
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We present a model that aggregates simulated runoff along a river
(i.e. a routing model). The unique feature of the model is that it
can be run at multiple resolutions without any modifications to the
input data. The model internally (dis-)aggregates all input data to
the resolution given by the user. The model performance does not
depend on the chosen resolution. This allows efficient model
calibration at coarse resolution and subsequent model application at
fine resolution.
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jim E. Freer, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Murray C. Peel, and Ross A. Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2463–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019, 2019
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Computer models are used to predict river flows. A good model should represent the river basin to which it is applied so that flow predictions are as realistic as possible. However, many different computer models exist, and selecting the most appropriate model for a given river basin is not always easy. This study combines computer code for 46 different hydrological models into a single coding framework so that models can be compared in an objective way and we can learn about model differences.
Naoki Mizukami, Oldrich Rakovec, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, 2019
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We find that Nash–Sutcliffe (NSE)-based model calibrations result in poor reproduction of high-flow events, such as the annual peak flows that are used for flood frequency estimation. The use of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) results in annual peak flow estimates that are better than from NSE, with only a slight degradation in performance with respect to other related metrics.
Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Rosanna Lane, Toby Dunne, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Niall Quinn, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2285–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, 2019
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DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of Hydrology) is a new modelling framework that can be applied from small catchment to continental scales for complex river basins. This paper describes the modelling framework and its key components and demonstrates the model’s ability to be applied across a large model domain. This work highlights the potential for catchment- to continental-scale predictions of streamflow to support robust environmental management and policy decisions.
Katrina E. Bennett, Jessica E. Cherry, Ben Balk, and Scott Lindsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2439–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, 2019
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Remotely sensed snow observations may improve operational streamflow forecasting in remote regions, such as Alaska. In this study, we insert remotely sensed observations of snow extent into the operational framework employed by the US National Weather Service’s Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center. Our work indicates that the snow observations can improve snow estimates and streamflow forecasting. This work provides direction for forecasters to implement remote sensing in their operations.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1593-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1593-2019, 2019
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This study describes how the spatial resolution of hydrological models affects the model results. The high-resolution model allowed for more spatial variability than the low-resolution model. As a result, the low-resolution model failed to capture most variability that was simulated with the high-resolution model. This has implications for the interpretation of results carried out at coarse resolutions, as they may fail to represent the local small-scale variability.
Bart van Osnabrugge, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Albrecht Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1453-2019, 2019
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A correct estimate of the amount of future precipitation is the most important factor in making a good streamflow forecast, but evaporation is also an important component that determines the discharge of a river. However, in this study for the Rhine River we found that evaporation forecasts only give an almost negligible improvement compared to methods that use statistical information on climatology for a 10-day streamflow forecast. This is important to guide research on low flow forecasts.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Tjitske J. Geertsema, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5599–5613, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5599-2018, 2018
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This study investigate the processes and effects of simultaneous flood peaks at a lowland confluence. The flood peaks are analyzed with the relatively new dynamic time warping method, which offers a robust means of tracing flood waves in discharge time series at confluences. The time lag between discharge peaks in the main river and its lowland tributaries is small compared to the wave duration; therefore the exact timing of discharge peaks may be little relevant to flood risk.
Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay V. Kumar, James V. Geiger, Shugong Wang, Eric Kemp, David M. Mocko, Hiroko Kato Beaudoing, Augusto Getirana, Mahdi Navari, Bailing Li, Jossy Jacob, Jerry Wegiel, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3605–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3605-2018, 2018
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The Earth’s land surface hydrology and physics can be represented in highly sophisticated models known as land surface models. The Land surface Data Toolkit (LDT) software was developed to meet these models’ input processing needs. LDT supports a variety of land surface and hydrology models and prepares the inputs (e.g., meteorological data, satellite observations to be assimilated into a model), which can be used for inter-model studies and to initialize weather and climate forecasts.
Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1591–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1591-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1591-2018, 2018
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An increasing number of coastal areas worldwide are facing a threat of groundwater quality degradation by saltwater intrusion. Groundwater flow models help to get a better idea of the volumes of fresh groundwater reserves in these areas. Our research provides information on aquifer thickness, which is one of the most important parameters for such models. However, we found that geological complexity of coastal aquifer systems is at least equally as important a factor for accurate predictions.
Thomas C. van Leth, Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4645–4669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4645-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4645-2018, 2018
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We present a campaign to address several error sources associated with rainfall estimates from microwave links in cellular communication networks. The set-up consists of three co-located links, complemented with reference instruments. We investigate events covering different attenuating phenomena: Rainfall, solid precipitation, temperature, fog, antenna wetting due to rain or dew, and clutter.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Aart Overeem, Timothy H. Raupach, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4465–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, 2018
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Rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The results show the potential of such networks as complementary rainfall measurements for more robust networks (e.g. radars, gauges, satellites).
Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, Niko Wanders, Yoshihide Wada, Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Niels Drost, Ruud J. van der Ent, Inge E. M. de Graaf, Jannis M. Hoch, Kor de Jong, Derek Karssenberg, Patricia López López, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Oliver Schmitz, Menno W. Straatsma, Ekkamol Vannametee, Dominik Wisser, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018
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PCR-GLOBWB 2 is an integrated hydrology and water resource model that fully integrates water use simulation and consolidates all features that have been developed since PCR-GLOBWB 1 was introduced. PCR-GLOBWB 2 can have a global coverage at 5 arcmin resolution and supersedes PCR-GLOBWB 1, which has a resolution of 30 arcmin only. Comparing the 5 arcmin with 30 arcmin simulations using discharge data, we clearly find improvement in the model performance of the higher-resolution model.
Miao Jing, Falk Heße, Rohini Kumar, Wenqing Wang, Thomas Fischer, Marc Walther, Matthias Zink, Alraune Zech, Luis Samaniego, Olaf Kolditz, and Sabine Attinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1989–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1989-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1989-2018, 2018
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Volker Meyer, and Luis Samaniego
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 889–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-889-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-889-2018, 2018
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Crop yields are routinely derived from meteorological variables, especially temperature. However, the primary water source for plant growth (soil moisture) is neglected. In this study, the predictability of maize yield is investigated using soil moisture or meteorological variables in Germany. The effects of soil moisture dominate those of temperature and are time-dependent. For example, comparatively moist soil conditions in June reduce crop yields, while in August they increase yields.
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
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Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Mehmet C. Demirel, Juliane Mai, Gorka Mendiguren, Julian Koch, Luis Samaniego, and Simon Stisen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1299–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, 2018
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Satellite data offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatially oriented model evaluations. In this study, satellite images are used to observe spatial patterns of evapotranspiration at the land surface. These spatial patterns are utilized in combination with streamflow observations in a model calibration framework including a novel spatial performance metric tailored to target the spatial pattern performance of a catchment-scale hydrological model.
Sebastian Huizer, Max Radermacher, Sierd de Vries, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1065–1080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1065-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1065-2018, 2018
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For a large beach nourishment called the Sand Engine we have examined the impact of groundwater recharge, tides, storm surges, and geomorphological changes on the growth of the fresh groundwater resources between 2011 and 2016. With detailed model simulations of these coastal processes we were able to get a good match with field measurements, and demonstrated the importance of wave runup and coastal erosion in studies on fresh groundwater in such dynamic coastal environments.
Andreas Marx, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Niko Wanders, Matthias Zink, Eric F. Wood, Ming Pan, Justin Sheffield, and Luis Samaniego
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018
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Hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K). The multi-model ensemble results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Adaptation should make use of change and uncertainty information.
Brian J. Dermody, Murugesu Sivapalan, Elke Stehfest, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Martin J. Wassen, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Stefan C. Dekker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 103–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, 2018
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Ensuring sustainable food and water security is an urgent and complex challenge. As the world becomes increasingly globalised and interdependent, food and water management policies may have unintended consequences across regions, sectors and scales. Current decision-making tools do not capture these complexities and thus miss important dynamics. We present a modelling framework to capture regional and sectoral interdependence and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system.
Katrina E. Bennett, Theodore J. Bohn, Kurt Solander, Nathan G. McDowell, Chonggang Xu, Enrique Vivoni, and Richard S. Middleton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-709-2018, 2018
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We applied the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model to examine scenarios of change under climate and landscape disturbances in the San Juan River basin, a major sub-watershed of the Colorado River basin. Climate change coupled with landscape disturbance leads to reduced streamflow in the San Juan River basin. Disturbances are expected to be widespread in this region. Therefore, accounting for these changes within the context of climate change is imperative for water resource planning.
Simon Höllering, Jan Wienhöfer, Jürgen Ihringer, Luis Samaniego, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 203–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-203-2018, 2018
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Hydrological fingerprints are introduced as response targets for sensitivity analysis and combined with a conventional approach using streamflow data for a temporally resolved sensitivity analysis. The joint benefit of both approaches is presented for several headwater catchments. The approach allows discerning a clarified pattern for parameter influences pinpointed to diverse response characteristics and detecting even slight regional differences.
Cameron Wobus, Ethan Gutmann, Russell Jones, Matthew Rissing, Naoki Mizukami, Mark Lorie, Hardee Mahoney, Andrew W. Wood, David Mills, and Jeremy Martinich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2199–2211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, 2017
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We linked modeled changes in the frequency of historical 100-year flood events to a national inventory of built assets within mapped floodplains of the United States. This allowed us to project changes in inland flooding damages nationwide under two alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our results suggest that more aggressive GHG reductions could reduce the projected monetary damages from inland flooding, potentially saving billions of dollars annually by the end of the century.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-629, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We compared the hydrological response simulated at two different spatial resolutions. The low resolution model was not able to simulate the complex response as was simulated with the high resolution model. The low resolution model underestimated the anomalies when compared with the high resolution model. This has implications on the interpretation of global scale impact studies (low resolution) on local or regional scales (high resolution).
Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5603–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, 2017
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We investigate how changes in land cover, such as deforestation, affect river runoff and evaporation from the land surface. We use computer simulations to show that the impact of land cover changes is significant and, when globally averaged, it is as important as more direct human impacts through water use (such as irrigation). There is large spatial variability in the impact of land cover change, with the largest changes when tall vegetation (such as forests) is replaced by crop fields.
Jannis M. Hoch, Jeffrey C. Neal, Fedor Baart, Rens van Beek, Hessel C. Winsemius, Paul D. Bates, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3913–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, 2017
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To improve flood hazard assessments, it is vital to model all relevant processes. We here present GLOFRIM, a framework for coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to increase the number of physical processes represented in hazard computations. GLOFRIM is openly available, versatile, and extensible with more models. Results also underpin its added value for model benchmarking, showing that not only model forcing but also grid properties and the numerical scheme influence output accuracy.
Nans Addor, Andrew J. Newman, Naoki Mizukami, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5293–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5293-2017, 2017
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We introduce a data set describing the landscape of 671 catchments in the contiguous USA: we synthesized various data sources to characterize the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soil, and geology of each catchment. This extends the daily time series of meteorological forcing and discharge provided by an earlier study. The diversity of these catchments will help to improve our understanding and modeling of how the interplay between catchment attributes shapes hydrological processes.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
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We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
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Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Naze Candogan Yossef, Rens van Beek, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel Winsemius, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4103–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a skill assessment of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World. For 20 large basins of the world, forecasts using the ESP procedure are compared to forecasts using actual S3 seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles by ECMWF. The results are discussed in the context of prevailing hydroclimatic conditions per basin. The study concludes that in general, the skill of ECMWF S3 forecasts is close to that of the ESP forecasts.
Markus Hrachowitz and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017
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Physically based and conceptual models in hydrology are the two endpoints in the spectrum of modelling strategies, mostly differing in their degree of detail in resolving the model domain. Given the limitations both modelling strategies face, we believe that to achieve progress in hydrological modelling, a convergence of these methods is necessary. This would allow us to exploit the respective advantages of the bottom-up and top-down models while limiting their respective uncertainties.
Pablo A. Mendoza, Andrew W. Wood, Elizabeth Clark, Eric Rothwell, Martyn P. Clark, Bart Nijssen, Levi D. Brekke, and Jeffrey R. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3915–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, 2017
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Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill.
Matthew F. McCabe, Matthew Rodell, Douglas E. Alsdorf, Diego G. Miralles, Remko Uijlenhoet, Wolfgang Wagner, Arko Lucieer, Rasmus Houborg, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Trenton E. Franz, Jiancheng Shi, Huilin Gao, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3879-2017, 2017
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We examine the opportunities and challenges that technological advances in Earth observation will present to the hydrological community. From advanced space-based sensors to unmanned aerial vehicles and ground-based distributed networks, these emergent systems are set to revolutionize our understanding and interpretation of hydrological and related processes.
Ashley Wright, Jeffrey P. Walker, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, 2017
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The accurate reduction of hydrologic model input data is an impediment towards understanding input uncertainty and model structural errors. This paper compares the ability of two transforms to reduce rainfall input data. The resultant transforms are compressed to varying extents and reconstructed before being evaluated with standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. It is concluded the discrete wavelet transform is most capable of preserving rainfall time series.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
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Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Martyn Clark, Luis Samaniego, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Tim van Emmerik, Remko Uijlenhoet, Kevin Achieng, Trenton E. Franz, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3701–3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3701-2017, 2017
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In this synthesis of hydrologic scaling and similarity, we assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modeling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological hypotheses. We call upon the community to develop a focused effort towards a fourth paradigm for hydrology.
Emmy E. Stigter, Niko Wanders, Tuomo M. Saloranta, Joseph M. Shea, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 11, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, 2017
Patricia López López, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jaap Schellekens, Geert Sterk, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3125–3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3125-2017, 2017
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We perform various calibration experiments of a large-scale hydrological model using satellite-based products of evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the Oum Er Rbia River basin in Morocco. In addition, we study the impact on discharge estimates of three global precipitation products in comparison with model parameter calibration. Results show that evapotranspiration and soil moisture observations can be used for model calibration, resulting in discharge estimates of acceptable accuracy.
Sujay V. Kumar, Jiarui Dong, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, and Breogán Gómez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2637–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2637-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2637-2017, 2017
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Data assimilation deals with the blending of model forecasts and observations based on their relative errors. This paper addresses the importance of accurately representing the errors in the model forecasts for skillful data assimilation performance.
Hidayat Hidayat, Adriaan J. Teuling, Bart Vermeulen, Muh Taufik, Karl Kastner, Tjitske J. Geertsema, Dinja C. C. Bol, Dirk H. Hoekman, Gadis Sri Haryani, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Robert M. Delinom, Roel Dijksma, Gusti Z. Anshari, Nining S. Ningsih, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2579–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2579-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2579-2017, 2017
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Hydrological prediction is crucial but in tropical lowland it is difficult, considering data scarcity and river system complexity. This study offers a view of the hydrology of two tropical lowlands in Indonesia. Both lowlands exhibit the important role of upstream wetlands in regulating the flow downstream. We expect that this work facilitates a better prediction of fire-prone conditions in these regions.
Gabriele Baroni, Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2301–2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, 2017
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Three methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in soil properties. The effect on simulated states and fluxes is quantified using a distributed hydrological model. Different impacts are identified as function of the perturbation method, of the model outputs and of the spatio-temporal resolution. The study underlines the importance of a proper characterization of the uncertainty in soil properties for a correct assessment of their role and further improvements in the model application.
Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Matthias Cuntz, and Luis Samaniego
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1769–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1769-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1769-2017, 2017
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We discuss the estimation of a long-term, high-resolution, continuous and consistent dataset of hydro-meteorological variables for Germany. Here we describe the derivation of national-scale parameter sets and analyze the uncertainty of the estimated hydrologic variables (focusing on the parametric uncertainty). Our study highlights the role of accounting for the parametric uncertainty in model-derived hydrological datasets.
Lotte de Vos, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 765–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-765-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-765-2017, 2017
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Recent developments have made it possible to easily crowdsource meteorological measurements from automatic personal weather stations worldwide. This has offered free access to rainfall ground measurements at spatial and temporal resolutions far exceeding those of national operational sensor networks, especially in cities. This paper is the first step to make optimal use of this promising source of rainfall measurements and identify challenges for future implementation for urban applications.
Chengcheng Huang, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, and Xiaogu Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 635–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-635-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-635-2017, 2017
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This study examined the potential of snow water equivalent data assimilation to improve seasonal streamflow predictions. We examined aspects of the data assimilation system over basins with varying climates across the western US. We found that varying how the data assimilation system is implemented impacts forecast performance, and basins with good initial calibrations see less benefit. This implies that basin-specific configurations and benefits should be expected given this modeling system.
Falk Heße, Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 549–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-549-2017, 2017
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Travel-time distributions are a comprehensive tool for the characterization of hydrological systems. In our study, we used data that were simulated by virtue of a well-established hydrological model. This gave us a very large yet realistic dataset, both in time and space, from which we could infer the relative impact of different factors on travel-time behavior. These were, in particular, meteorological (precipitation), land surface (land cover, leaf-area index) and subsurface (soil) properties.
Jannis M. Hoch, Arjen V. Haag, Arthur van Dam, Hessel C. Winsemius, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, 2017
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Modelling inundations is pivotal to assess current and future flood hazard, and to define sound measures and policies. Yet, many models focus on the hydrologic or hydrodynamic aspect of floods only. We combined both by spatially coupling a hydrologic with a hydrodynamic model. This way we are able to balance the weaknesses of each model with the strengths of the other. We found that model coupling can indeed strongly improve discharge simulation, and see big potential in our approach.
Valentijn R. N. Pauwels and Edoardo Daly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4689–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4689-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4689-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate that the classical approach to solve the surface energy balance equation in land surface models has its issues, and we propose an improved method.
Steven L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4655–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4655-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4655-2016, 2016
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Results of this study indicate that it is possible to identify the influence of different hydrologic processes when simulating with a distributed-parameter hydrology model on the basis of parameter sensitivity analysis. Identification of these processes allows the modeler to focus on the more important aspects of the model input and output, which can simplify all facets of the hydrologic modeling application.
Rolf Hut, Niels Drost, Maarten van Meersbergen, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Marc Bierkens, and Nick van de Giesen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-225, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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A system that predicts the amount of water flowing in each river on earth, 9 days ahead, is build using existing parts of open source computer code build by different researchers in other projects.
The glue between all pre-existing parts are all open interfaces which means that the pieces system click together like a house of LEGOs. It is easy to remove a piece (a brick) and replace it with another, improved, piece.
The resulting predictions are available online at forecast.ewatercycle.org
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
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In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
C. Z. van de Beek, H. Leijnse, P. Hazenberg, and R. Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3837–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3837-2016, 2016
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Quantitative precipitation estimation using weather radar is affected by many sources of error. This study is an attempt to separate and quantify sources of error very close to the radar. A 3-day event is analyzed using radar, rain gauge and disdrometer data. Without correction, the radar severely underestimates the total rain amount by more than 50 %. After correction for the errors, a good match with rain gauge measurements is found, with 5 to 8 % difference.
Sebastian Huizer, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3149–3166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3149-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3149-2016, 2016
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The anticipation of sea-level rise has led to an innovative project called the Sand Engine, where a large volume of sand was placed on the Dutch coast. The intention is that the sand is redistributed by wind, current and tide, reinforcing coastal defence structures. Model simulations show that this large sand replenishment can result in a substantial growth of fresh groundwater resources. Thus, sand replenishments could combine coastal protection with an increase of fresh groundwater resources.
Patricia López López, Niko Wanders, Jaap Schellekens, Luigi J. Renzullo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3059–3076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3059-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3059-2016, 2016
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We perform a joint assimilation experiment of high-resolution satellite soil moisture and discharge observations in the Murrumbidgee River basin with a large-scale hydrological model. Additionally, we study the impact of high- and low-resolution meteorological forcing on the model performance. We show that the assimilation of high-resolution satellite soil moisture and discharge observations has a significant impact on discharge simulations and can bring them closer to locally calibrated models.
Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, Kevin Sampson, Bart Nijssen, Yixin Mao, Hilary McMillan, Roland J. Viger, Steve L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, Ross Woods, Jeffrey R. Arnold, and Levi D. Brekke
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2223–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2223-2016, 2016
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mizuRoute version 1 is a stand-alone runoff routing tool that post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic models to produce streamflow estimates in large-scale river network. mizuRoute is flexible to river network representation and includes two different river routing schemes. This paper demonstrates mizuRoute's capability of multi-decadal streamflow estimations in the river networks over the entire contiguous Unites States, which contains over 54 000 river segments.
Simon Höllering, Jürgen Ihringer, Luis Samaniego, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-249, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
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In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2425–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2425-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2425-2016, 2016
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Microwave links in commercial cellular communication networks hold a promise for areal rainfall monitoring and could complement rainfall estimates from ground-based weather radars, rain gauges, and satellites. It has been shown that country-wide rainfall maps can be derived from the signal attenuations of microwave links in such a network. Here we give a detailed description of the employed rainfall retrieval algorithm and the corresponding code, which is freely provided at GitHub.
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
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The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
Inge E. M. de Graaf, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, Tom Gleeson, Nils Moosdorf, Oliver Schmitz, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-121, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study we want to understand groundwater flows at the global scale better. We simulated groundwater storage and fluctuations in confined and unconfined aquifer systems. This is the first study that includes confined systems at the global scale. Confined systems change timing and amplitude of head fluctuations, flow paths, and groundwater-surface water interactions. Hotspots of groundwater depletion are identified and resulted in a global estimate of 6700 km3.
Rohini Kumar, Jude L. Musuuza, Anne F. Van Loon, Adriaan J. Teuling, Roland Barthel, Jurriaan Ten Broek, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016
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In a maiden attempt, we performed a multiscale evaluation of the widely used SPI to characterize local- and regional-scale groundwater (GW) droughts using observations at 2040 groundwater wells in Germany and the Netherlands. From this data-based exploratory analysis, we provide sufficient evidence regarding the inability of the SPI to characterize GW drought events, and stress the need for more GW observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in GW drought monitoring.
Maria Stergiadi, Marcel van der Perk, Ton C. M. de Nijs, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Biogeosciences, 13, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, 2016
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We modelled the effects of changes in climate and land management on soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels in sandy and loamy soils under forest, grassland, and arable land. Climate change causes a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC slightly increases. A reduction in fertilizer application leads to a decrease in SOC and DOC levels under arable land but has a negligible effect under grassland.
Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Naoki Mizukami, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, 2016
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A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of a land surface model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution.
X. Cai, Z.-L. Yang, J. B. Fisher, X. Zhang, M. Barlage, and F. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1-2016, 2016
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A terrestrial nitrogen dynamics model is integrated into Noah-MP. The new model performs well in capturing the major nitrogen state/flux variables (e.g., soil nitrate and nitrate leaching). The addition of nitrogen dynamics improves the modeling of net primary productivity and evapotranspiration. This improvement advances the capability of Noah-MP to simultaneously predict weather and water quality.
W. W. Immerzeel, N. Wanders, A. F. Lutz, J. M. Shea, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015
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The water resources of the upper Indus river basin (UIB) are important for millions of people, yet little is known about the rain and snow fall in the high-altitude regions because of the inaccessibility, the climatic complexity and the lack of observations. In this study we use mass balance of glaciers to reconstruct the amount of precipitation in the UIB and we conclude that this amount is much higher than previously thought.
S. V. Kumar, C. D. Peters-Lidard, J. A. Santanello, R. H. Reichle, C. S. Draper, R. D. Koster, G. Nearing, and M. F. Jasinski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4463–4478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4463-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4463-2015, 2015
B. R. Voortman, R. P. Bartholomeus, S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee, M. F. P. Bierkens, and J. P. M. Witte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3787-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3787-2015, 2015
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This study explores the magnitude of energy and water fluxes in an inland dune ecosystem in the Netherlands. We parameterized the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model for four different surfaces: bare sand, moss, grass and heather. The knowledge presented in this paper will help improve the simulations of water recharge in sand dunes by hydrological models, and allow the quantification of the cost and benefit of nature conservation in terms of groundwater recharge.
M. F. Rios Gaona, A. Overeem, H. Leijnse, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3571–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, 2015
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Commercial cellular networks are built for telecommunication purposes. These kinds of networks have lately been used to obtain rainfall maps at country-wide scales. From previous studies, we now quantify the uncertainties associated with such maps. To do so, we divided the sources or error into two categories: from microwave link measurements and from mapping. It was found that the former is the source that contributes the most to the overall error in rainfall maps from microwave link network.
M. S. Raleigh, J. D. Lundquist, and M. P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3153–3179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, 2015
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A sensitivity analysis is used to examine how error characteristics (type, distributions, and magnitudes) in meteorological forcing data impact outputs from a physics-based snow model in four climates. Bias and error magnitudes were key factors in model sensitivity and precipitation bias often dominated. However, the relative importance of forcings depended somewhat on the selected model output. Forcing uncertainty was comparable to model structural uncertainty as found in other studies.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, J. Sumihar, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2911–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, 2015
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This is the first analysis of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter in hydrological forecasting. The results of discharge assimilation into a hydrological model for the catchment show that including past predictions and observations in the filter improves model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between soil moisture and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting.
A. Lourens, M. F. P. Bierkens, and F. C. van Geer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-4191-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-4191-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present a method to find the most likely properties (layer thickness and conductivity) for each litho-class of the constituting layers of an aquitard, using a readily calibrated groundwater model. The prior litho-class properties are uncertain, and based on borehole data. The groundwater model parameters are assumed to be the truth. The combination of prior data and calibration result yields the most likely litho-class properties. The method is applicable to aquifers as well.
I. E. M. de Graaf, E. H. Sutanudjaja, L. P. H. van Beek, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 823–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015, 2015
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In this paper we present a high-resolution global-scale groundwater model of an upper aquifer. An equilibrium water table at its natural state is constructed. Aquifer parameterization is based on available global datasets on lithology and conductivity combined with estimated aquifer thickness. The results showed groundwater levels are well simulated for many regions of the world. Simulated flow paths showed the relevance of including lateral groundwater flows in global scale hydrological models.
A. J. Newman, M. P. Clark, K. Sampson, A. Wood, L. E. Hay, A. Bock, R. J. Viger, D. Blodgett, L. Brekke, J. R. Arnold, T. Hopson, and Q. Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 209–223, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-209-2015, 2015
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The focus of this paper is to (1) present a community data set of daily forcing and hydrologic response data for 671 unimpaired basins across the contiguous United States that spans a very wide range of hydroclimatic conditions, and (2) provide a calibrated model performance benchmark using a common conceptual snow and hydrologic modeling system. This benchmark provides a reference level of model performance across a very large basin sample and highlights regional variations in performance.
M. Dessie, N. E. C. Verhoest, V. R. N. Pauwels, T. Admasu, J. Poesen, E. Adgo, J. Deckers, and J. Nyssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5149–5167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5149-2014, 2014
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In this study, topography is considered as a proxy for the variability of most of the catchment characteristics. The model study suggests that classifying the catchments into different runoff production areas based on topography and including the impermeable rocky areas separately in the modeling process mimics the rainfall–runoff process in the Upper Blue Nile basin well and yields a useful result for operational management of water resources in this data-scarce region.
B. J. Dermody, R. P. H. van Beek, E. Meeks, K. Klein Goldewijk, W. Scheidel, Y. van der Velde, M. F. P. Bierkens, M. J. Wassen, and S. C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5025–5040, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014, 2014
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Our virtual water network of the Roman World shows that virtual water trade and irrigation provided the Romans with resilience to interannual climate variability. Virtual water trade enabled the Romans to meet food demands from regions with a surplus. Irrigation provided stable water supplies for agriculture, particularly in large river catchments. However, virtual water trade also stimulated urbanization and population growth, which eroded Roman resilience to climate variability over time.
C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and R. Uijlenhoet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2313-2014, 2014
C. C. Brauer, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. J. Teuling, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4007–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4007-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4007-2014, 2014
J. R. Delsman, K. R. M. Hu-a-ng, P. C. Vos, P. G. B. de Louw, G. H. P. Oude Essink, P. J. Stuyfzand, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3891–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3891-2014, 2014
A. I. Gevaert, A. J. Teuling, R. Uijlenhoet, S. B. DeLong, T. E. Huxman, L. A. Pangle, D. D. Breshears, J. Chorover, J. D. Pelletier, S. R. Saleska, X. Zeng, and P. A. Troch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3681–3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3681-2014, 2014
N. Wanders, D. Karssenberg, A. de Roo, S. M. de Jong, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2343–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014, 2014
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014
Y. Wada, D. Wisser, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, 2014
B. Samain and V. R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4525–4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4525-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4525-2013, 2013
A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, 2013
V. R. N. Pauwels, G. J. M. De Lannoy, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, and H. Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3499–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3499-2013, 2013
E. Vannametee, D. Karssenberg, M. R. Hendriks, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2981–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2981-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2981-2013, 2013
Z. Tao, J. A. Santanello, M. Chin, S. Zhou, Q. Tan, E. M. Kemp, and C. D. Peters-Lidard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6207–6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6207-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6207-2013, 2013
N. De Vleeschouwer and V. R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2001–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2001-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2001-2013, 2013
A. C. V. Getirana and C. Peters-Lidard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 923–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-923-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-923-2013, 2013
L. Loosvelt, H. Vernieuwe, V. R. N. Pauwels, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 461–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-461-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-461-2013, 2013
A. F. Bouwman, M. F. P. Bierkens, J. Griffioen, M. M. Hefting, J. J. Middelburg, H. Middelkoop, and C. P. Slomp
Biogeosciences, 10, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Exploring the potential processes controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments
A diversity-centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Simulating the Tone River eastward diversion project in Japan carried out 4 centuries ago
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Assessing the value of high-resolution rainfall and streamflow data for hydrological modeling: An analysis based on 63 catchments in southeast China
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
Evaluating the effects of topography and land use change on hydrological signatures: a comparative study of two adjacent watersheds
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, 2025
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This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation–Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation–runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
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Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
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This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
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This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
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Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
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Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
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Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
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To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
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The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
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This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
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Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
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Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
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Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
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We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
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Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
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The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
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We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
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Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
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We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
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This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
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A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
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Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
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We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
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Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
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Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
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We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
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An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
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The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
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Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
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The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
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By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
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Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
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Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
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Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, 2024
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Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conducted simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments, and found that higher resolution data does not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
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Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
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Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
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Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
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Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
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A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
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Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
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Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
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Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
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In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Haifan Liu, Haochen Yan, and Mingfu Guan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-136, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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In mountainous areas, the relationship between slope and annual hydrological processes is pronounced. However, at lower elevations, this relationship is weak in steeper watersheds. In addition, urbanization leads to an increase in annual surface runoff in all watersheds, especially in steep-slope watersheds. Flatter watersheds exhibit a buffering capacity against urbanization. However, this buffering capacity is diminishing as annual rainfall intensity increases.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
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We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
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Short summary
The diversity in hydrologic models has led to controversy surrounding the “correct” approach to hydrologic modeling. In this paper we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, summarize modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs.
The diversity in hydrologic models has led to controversy surrounding the “correct” approach...
