Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-857-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-857-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Feb 2015
Research article |
| 10 Feb 2015
Calibration approaches for distributed hydrologic models in poorly gaged basins: implication for streamflow projections under climate change
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
Y. C. E. Yang
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
S. Steinschneider
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
A. Khalil
The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA
C. M. Brown
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
Related authors
Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda, Eleonora M. C. Demaría, Juan B. Valdés, Sungwook Wi, and Aleix Serrat-Capdevilla
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-473, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) is sparsely gauged and real-time rainfall estimates are not readily available. Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) may complement that information, thereby allowing for improved real-time forecasting of streamflows. In this study, three SPPs for the UZRB are corrected and evaluated for use in real-time forecasting of daily streamflows. The applied approaches revealed significant improvements in the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts in the UZRB.
Jin-Young Hyun, Shih-Yu Huang, Yi-Chen Ethan Yang, Vincent Tidwell, and Jordan Macknick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2261–2278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies a two-way coupled agent-based model (ABM) with a river-reservoir management model (RiverWare) to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions using the Bayesian inference mapping joined with the cost–loss model. The calibration results capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes and suggest that the proposed framework improves the representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs.
Hassaan Furqan Khan, Y. C. Ethan Yang, Hua Xie, and Claudia Ringler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6275–6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6275-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6275-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable water management needs to account for the ways humans benefit from the environment while also incorporating the impact of human actions on the natural system. In this study we present a generalized modeling framework to simulate the reciprocal impacts of human decisions on water availability, food and energy production, and environment in two transboundary river basins. The framework allows users to observe how individual water use decisions affect others across the entire system.
Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda, Eleonora M. C. Demaría, Juan B. Valdés, Sungwook Wi, and Aleix Serrat-Capdevilla
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-473, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) is sparsely gauged and real-time rainfall estimates are not readily available. Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) may complement that information, thereby allowing for improved real-time forecasting of streamflows. In this study, three SPPs for the UZRB are corrected and evaluated for use in real-time forecasting of daily streamflows. The applied approaches revealed significant improvements in the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts in the UZRB.
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Hybrid Hydrological Modeling for Large Alpine Basins: A Distributed Approach
Impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation based on multimodel structures – a case study over the Xiang River basin in China
A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Advancing understanding of lake–watershed hydrology: a fully coupled numerical model illustrated by Qinghai Lake
HESS Opinions: A few camels or a whole caravan?
Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins
Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Deep learning for monthly rainfall–runoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia
On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow
Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems
Vegetation Response to Climatic Variability: Implications for Root Zone Storage and Streamflow Predictions
Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California
Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau
Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records
On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfall–runoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration
Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings
HESS Opinions: Never train an LSTM on a single basin
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
Simulation-Based Inference for Parameter Estimation of Complex Watershed Simulators
A framework for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis for holistic hydrologic modeling using SWAT+
On understanding mountainous carbonate basins of the Mediterranean using parsimonious modeling solutions
Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations
Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-54, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid distributed hydrological models by employing a distributed model as the backbone, and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and improves understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Franziska Maria Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the catchment forcing data provided in large-sample datasets, namely the Caravan dataset and three of the original CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB). We show that the differences affect hydrological model performance and that the data quality in the Caravan dataset is lower than the one in the CAMELS datasets, both for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. We want to raise awareness of the lower data quality in Caravan and we suggest possible improvements for the Caravan dataset.
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-46, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system, and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in karst systems.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-81, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics, and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Nienke Tessa Tempel, Laurene Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities thus on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models require the use of large-sample hydrology datasets.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve under a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration with a set of experiments in the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Čerkasova, and Jungang Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research highlights.
1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.
2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.
3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.
4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Yuhang Zhang, Aizhong Ye, Bita Analui, Phu Nguyen, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, and Yuxuan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4529–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) models demonstrate similar proficiency in multipoint probabilistic predictions, QRF excels in smaller watersheds and CMAL-LSTM in larger ones. CMAL-LSTM performs better in single-point deterministic predictions, whereas QRF model is more efficient overall.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Cited articles
Ahmad, S.: Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options, Karachi, Pakistan, 2010.
Ajami, N. K., Gupta, H., Wagener, T., and Sorooshian, S.: Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrologic model for streamflow estimation along a river system, J. Hydrol., 298, 112–135, 2004.
Anderson, J., Refsgaard, J. C., and Jensen, K. H.: Distributed hydrological modeling of the Senegal river basin – model construction and validation, J. Hydrol., 247, 200–214, 2001.
Bandaragoda, C., Tarboton, D. G., and Woods, R.: Application of TOPNET in the distributed model intercomparison project, J. Hydrol., 298, 178–201, 2004.
Beven, J. K.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 2nd Edition, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, 2012.
Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11–29, 2001.
Beven, K.: How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-1-2001, 2001.
Biondi, D., Freni, G., Iacobellis, V., Mascaro, G., and Montanari, A.: Validation of hydrological models: conceptual basis, methodological approaches and a proposal for a code of practice, Phys. Chem. Earth, 42–44, 70–76, 2012
Boscarello, L., Ravazzani, G., and Mancini, M.: Catchment multisite discharge measurements for hydrological model calibration, Procedia Environmental Sciences, 19, 158–167, 2013.
Boyle, D. P., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S.: Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Combining the stregths of manual and automatic methods, Water Resour. Res., 36, 3663–3674, 2000.
Boyle, D. P.: Multicriteria calibration of hydrologic models, Ph.D. thesis, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, The University of Arizona, USA, 2001.
Brath, A. and Montanari, A.: The effects of the spatial variability of soil infiltration capacity in distributed flood modelling, Hydrol. Process., 14, 2779–2794, 2000.
Brath, A., Montanari, A., and Toth, E.:. Analysis of the effects of different scenarios of historical data availability on the calibration of a spatially-distributed hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 291, 232–253, 2004.
Breuer, L., Huisman J. A., Willems, P., Bormann, H., Bronstert, A., Croke, B. F. W., Frede, H. G., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Jakeman, A. J., Kite, G., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Lindström, G., Seibert, J., Sivapalan, M., and Viney, N. R.: Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUChEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use, Adv. Water Resour., 32, 129–146, 2009
Cao, W., Bowden, W. B., Davie, T., and Fenemor, A.: Multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variability, Hydrol. Process, 20, 1057–1073, 2006.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., Poulin, A., and Leconte, R.: Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed, Water Resour. Res., 47, W12509, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010602, 2011.
Cole, S. J. and Moore, R. J.: Hydrological modelling using raingauge- and radar-based estimators of areal rainfall, J. Hydrol., 358, 159–181, 2008.
DAWN: Pakistan, Afghanistan mull over power project on Kunar River, available at: http://www.dawn.com/news/1038435 (last access: 2 January 2015), 2013.
Eckhardt, K., Fohrer, N., and Frede, H. G.: Automatic model calibration, Hydrol. Process., 19, 651–658, 2005.
Efstratiadis, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 58–78, 2010.
Efstratiadis, A., Nalbantis, I., Koukouvinos, A., Rozos, E., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: HYDROGEIOS: a semi-distributed GIS-based hydrological model for modified river basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 989–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-989-2008, 2008.
Exbrayat, J. F., Buytaert, W., Timbe, E., Windhorst, D., and Breuer, L.: Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes, Climatic Change, 125, 221–235, 2014.
Flugel, W. A.: Delineating Hydrological Response Units (HRU's) by GIS analysis for regional hydrological modelling using PRMS/MMS in the drainage basin of the River Brol, Germany, Hydrol. Process., 9, 423–436, 1995.
Forsythe, W. C., Rykiel Jr., E. J., Stahl, R. S., Wu, H., Schoolfield, R. M.: A model comparison for daylength as a function of latitude and day of year, Ecol. Model., 80, 87–95, 1995.
Frances, F., Velez, J. I., and Velez, J. J.: Split-parameter structure for the automatic calibration of distributed hydrological models, J. Hydrol., 332, 226–240, 2007.
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., and Savenije, H. H. G.: An approach to identify time consistent model parameters: sub-period calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 149–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-149-2013, 2013.
Grinsted, A.: An estimate of global glacier volume, The Cryosphere, 7, 141–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-141-2013, 2013.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, 2009.
Gupta, H. V., Sorooshian, S., and Yapo, P. O.: Towards improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information, Water Resour. Res., 34, 751–763, 1998.
Hamon, W. R.: Estimating potential evapotranspiration, J. Hydr. Eng. Div.-ASCE, 87, 107–120, 1961.
Hewitt, K., Wake, C. P., Young, G. J., and David, C.: Hydrologicl investigations at Biafo glacier, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan: An important source of water for the Indue River, Ann. Glaciol., 13, 103–108, 1989.
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., Konz, M., Shrestha, A. B., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas, Climatic Change, 110, 721–736, 2012.
IUCN: Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options, IUCN Pakistan, Karachi, 11 pp., 2010.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E.: Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V4, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), available at: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org (last access: 2 January 2015), 2008.
Khakbaz, B., Imam, B., Hsu, K., and Sorooshian, S.: From lumped to distributed via semi-distributed: Calibration strategies for semi-distributed hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 418–419, 61–77, 2012.
Khan, S. I., Yang, H., Wang, J., Yilmaz, K. K., Gourley, J. J., Adler, R. F., Brakenridge, G. R., Policell, F., Habib, S., and Irwin, D.: Satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modeling for flood inundation mapping in Lake Victoria Basin: Implications for hydrologic prediction in ungauged basins, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 49, 85–95, 2011.
Kinouchi, T., Liu, T., Mendoza, J., and Asaoka, Y.: Modeling glacier melt and runoff in a high-altitude headwater catchment in the Cordillera Real, Andes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 13093–13144, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-13093-2013, 2013.
Kollat, J. B., Reed, P. M., and Wagener, T.: When are multiobjective calibration trade-offs in hydrologic models meaningful?, Water Resour. Res., 48, W03520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011534, 2012.
Konz, M. and Seibert, J.: On the value of glacier mass balances for hydrological model calibration, J. Hydrol., 385, 238–246, 2010.
Koren, V., Reed, S., Smith, M., Zhang, Z., and Seo, D. J.: Hydrology laboratory research modeling system (HL-RMS) of the US national weather service, J. Hydrol., 291, 297–318, 2004.
Koutsoyiannis, D., Efstratiadis, A., Mamassis, N., and Christofides, A.: On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 671–684, 2008.
Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations, Water Resour. Res., 49, 360–379, 2013.
Kuzmin, V., Seo D., and Koren V.: Fast and efficient optimization of hydrologic model parameters using a priori estimates and stepwise line search, J. Hydrol., 353, 109–128, 2008.
Laloy, E. and Vrugt, J. A.: High-dimensional posterior exploration of hydrologic models using multiple-try DREAM(ZS) and high-performance computing, Water Resour. Res., 48, W01526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010608, 2012.
Latham, J., Cumani, R., Rosati, I., and Bloise, M.: Global Land Cover SHARE (GLC-SHARE) database Beta-Release Version 1.0, available at: http://www.glcn.org/databases/lc_glcshare_en.jsp (last access: 2 January 2015), 2014.
Leavesley, G. H., Hay, L. E., Viger, R. J., and Markstrom, S. L.: Use of Priori Paramter-Estimation Methods to Constrain Calibration of Distributed-Parameter Models, Water. Sci. Appl., 6, 255–266, 2003.
Legates, D. R. and Willmott, C. J.: Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation, Int. J. Climatol., 10, 111–127, 1990.
Lerat, J., Andreassian V., Perrin, C., Vaze, J., Perraud J. M., Ribstein, P., and Loumagne C.: Do internal flow measurements improve the calibration of rainfall-runoff models?, Water Resour. Res., 48, W02511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010179, 2012.
Li, X., Weller, D. E., and Jordan, T. E.: Watershed model calibration using multi-objective optimization and multi-site averaging, J. Hydrol., 380, 277–288, 2010.
Lohmann, D., Raschke, R., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 43, 131–141, 1998.
Madsen, H.: Parameter estimation in distributed hydrologicl catchment modelling using automatic calibration with multiple objectives, Adv. Water Resour., 26, 205–216, 2003.
Moore, R. D.: Application of a conceptual streamflow model in a glacierized drainage basin, J. Hydrol., 150, 151–168, 1993.
Moore, R. J.: The probability-distribted principle and runoff production at point and basin scales, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 30, 273–297, 1985.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliff, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1. A discussion of priciples, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Nash, J. E.: The form of the instantaneous unit hydrograph, International Association of Science and Hydrology, 3, 114–121, 1957.
Olson, S. A. and Williams-Sether, T.: Streamflow characteristics at streamgages in Northern Afghanistan and selected locations, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, 2010.
Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J., and Provenzale, A.: Precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya: Observations and future scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 85–100, 2013.
Perez, J., Menendez, M., Mendez, F. J., and Losada, I. J.: Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2663–2680, 2014.
Pfeffer, T. W., Arendt, A. A., Bliss, A., Bolch, T., Cogley J. G., Gardner, A. S., Hagen, J. O., Hock R., Kaser, G., Kienholz, C., Miles E. S., Moholdt, G., Molg, N., Paul, F., Radic, V., Rastner, P., Raup, B. H., Rich, J., Sharp, M. J., and The Randolph Consortium: The Randolph Glacier Inventory, J. Glaciol., 60, 537–552, 2014.
Pokhrel, P. and Gupta, H. V.: On the use of spatial regularization strategies to improve calibration of distributed watershed models, Water. Resour. Res., 46, W01505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008066, 2010.
Pokhrel, P. and Gupta, H. V.: On the ability to infer spatial catchment variability using streamflow hydrographs, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08534, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009873, 2011.
Radic, V., Bliss, A., Beedlow, A. C., Hock, R., Miles, E., and Cogley, J. G.: Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models, Clim. Dynam., 42, 37–58, 2014.
Reed, S., Koren, V., Smith, M., Zhang, Z., Moreda, F., Seo, D. J., and DMIP Participants: Overall distributed model intercomparison project results, J. Hydrol., 298, 27–60, 2004.
Remesan, R., Bellerby, T., and Frostick, L.: Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment, Hydrol. Process., 28, 3241–3263, 2013.
Safari, A., De Smedt, F., and Moreda, F.: WetSpa model application in the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2), J. Hydrol., 418–419, 77–89, 2012.
Shakir, A. S., Rehman, H., and Ehsan, S.: Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed, Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 7, 12–23, 2010.
Smith, M. B., Koren, V., Reed, S., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Y., Moreda, F., Cui, Z., Mizukami, N., Anderson, E. A., and Cosgrove, B. A.: The distributed model intercomparison project – Phase 2: Motivation and design of the Oklahoma experiments, J. Hydrol., 418–419, 3–16, 2012.
Smith, M. B., Seo, D. J., Koren, V. I., Reed, S. M., Zhang, Z., Duan, Q., Moreda, F., and Cong, S.: The distributed model intercomparison project (DMIP): motivation and experiment design, J. Hydrol., 298, 4–26, 2004.
Smith, M., Koren, V., Zhang, Z., Moreda, F., Cui, Z., Cosgrove, B., Mizukami, N., Kitzmiller, D., Ding, F., Reed, S., Anderson, E., Schaake, J., Zhang, Y., Andreassian, V., Perrin, C., Coron, L., Valery, A., Khakbaz, B., Sorooshian, S., Behrangi, A., Imam, B., Hsu, K. L., Todini, E., Coccia, G., Mazzetti, C., Andres, E. O., Frances, F., Orozco, I., Hartman, R., Henkel, A., Fickenscher, P., and Staggs, S.: The distributed model intercomparison project – Phase 2: Experiment design and summary results of the western basin experiments, J. Hydrol., 507, 300–329, 2013.
Stahl, K., Moore, R. D., Shea, J. M., Hutchinson, D., and Cannon, A. J.: Coupled modelling of glacier and streamflow response to future climate scenarios, Water Resour. Res., 44, W02422, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR005956, 2008.
Steinschneider, S., Polebitski, A., Brown, C., and Letcher, B. H.: Toward a statistical framework to quantify the uncertainties of hydrologic response under climate change, Water Resour. Res., 48, W11525, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011318, 2012.
Steinschneider, S., Wi, S., and Brown, C.: The integrated effects of climate and hydrologic uncertainty on future flood risk assessments, Hydrol. Process., https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10409, accepted, 2014.
Talyor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. M. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Tang, Q., Gao, H., Lu, H., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Remote sensing: hydrology, Prog. Phys. Geog., 33, 490–509, 2009.
Thirel, G., Salamon, P., Burek, P., and Kalas, M.: Assimilation of MODIS snow cover area data in a distributed hydrological model using the particle filter, Remote Sensing, 5, 5825–5850, 2013
USDA-NRCS: FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the World, available at: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/use/?cid=nrcs142p2_054013 (last access: 2 January 2015), 2005.
Vrugt, J. A., ter Braak, C. J. F., Gupta, H. V., and Robinson, B. A.: Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 23, 1011–1026, 2008.
Wagener, T., Boyle, D. P., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S.: A framework for development and application of hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-13-2001, 2001.
Wagener, T., Wheater, H. S., and Gupta, H. V.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in Gauged and Ungauged Catchments, Imperical College Press, London, 2004.
Wang, Q. J.: The Genetic Algorithm and Its Application to Calibrating Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models, Water Resour. Res., 27, 2467–2471, 1991.
Wang, S., Zhang, Z., Sun, G., Strauss, P., Guo, J., Tang, Y., and Yao, A.: Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4621–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4621-2012, 2012.
Wilby, R. L.: Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment, Hydrol. Process., 19, 3201–3219, 2005.
Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs, Climatic Change, 62, 189–216, 2004.
World Bank: Afghanistan – Scoping strategic options for development of the Kabul River Basin: a multisectoral decision support system approach, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2010.
Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and Kitoh, A.: APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1401–1415, 2012.
Yu, W., Yang, Y. C. E., Savitsky, A., Alford, D., Brown, C., Wescoat, J., Debowicz, D., and Robinson, S.: The Indus Basin of Pakistan: The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture, World Bank, Washington DC, 2013.
Zhang, X., Beeson, P., Link, R., Manowitz, D., Izaurralde, R. C., Sadeghi, A., Thomson, A. M., Sahajpal, R., Srinivasan, R., and Arnold, J. G.: Efficient multi-objective calibration of a computationally intensive hydrologic model with parallel computing software in Python, Environ. Modell. Softw., 46, 208–218, 2013.
Zhu, C. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Long-Term Climate and Derived Surface Hydrology and Energy Flux Data for Mexico: 1925–2004, J. Climate., 20, 1936–1946, 2007.
Short summary
This study shows that multisite calibration approaches for a distributed hydrologic model far exceed a calibration based on only the basin outlet. It also reveals advantages of semi-distributed over (non-parsimonious) fully distributed parameter schematization, by means of improved predictive capacity and reduced parameter uncertainty. The uncertainty in future streamflow resulting from variations in projected climate between GCMs substantially outweighs the calibration uncertainty.
This study shows that multisite calibration approaches for a distributed hydrologic model far...
