Articles | Volume 28, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
Opinion article
 | 
19 Jun 2024
Opinion article |  | 19 Jun 2024

HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood

Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl

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Preprint under review for HESS
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Cited articles

Aerts, J. C., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J. W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther, H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199, 2018. 
Albano, C. M., Dettinger, M. D., McCarthy, M. I., Schaller, K. D., Welborn, T. L., and Cox, D. A.: Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA, Nat. Hazards, 80, 879–900, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2003-4, 2016. 
Alexander, M.: Aging, bioavailability, and overestimation of risk from environmental pollutants, Environ. Sci. Technol., 34, 4259–4265, 2000. 
Alkema, D. and Middelkoop, H.: The Influence of Floodplain Compartmentalization on Flood Risk within the Rhine-Meuse Delta, Nat. Hazards, 36, 125–145, 2005. 
Apel, H., Vorogushyn, S., and Merz, B.: Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022. 
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Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually impossible yet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
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