Articles | Volume 28, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Opinion article
| 
19 Jun 2024
Opinion article |
| 19 Jun 2024
| 19 Jun 2024
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Alberto Montanari
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Bruno Merz
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Günter Blöschl
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Werden die Hochwasser größer? Ursachen, Trends und Handlungsoptionen G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-025-01165-5
- Rogue and extreme floods in North America P. Whitfield & D. Burn https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135389
- An In-Depth Statistical Analysis of the Pearson Type III Distribution Behavior in Modeling Extreme and Rare Events C. Anghel & D. Ianculescu https://doi.org/10.3390/w17101539
- Storylines of extreme precipitation events and flood impacts in alpine and pre-alpine environments under various global warming levels L. Munz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177791
- The exceptional hydrological disaster of April-May 2024 in southern Brazil W. Collischonn et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.302520240119
- Cascading impact chains and recovery challenges of the 2024 Valencia catastrophic floods A. Fekete et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01483-4
- Scaling Properties of Rainfall as a Basis for Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships and Their Spatial Distribution in Catalunya, NE Spain M. Casas-Castillo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020037
- Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards P. Voit & M. Heistermann https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024
- Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods L. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6
- Assessment of social vulnerability to floods based on fuzzy logic in a Mediterranean dense urban area: Palma, Mallorca, Spain A. Moragues et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105594
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- Application of the GEV Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis in Romania: An In-Depth Analysis C. Anghel & D. Ianculescu https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13070152
- Emergency forecasts for water levels in the Guaíba River during the 2024 unprecedented flood in South Brazil M. Medeiros et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.302520250025
- IDF Curve Modification Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Lombardy Region Using EURO-CORDEX Ensemble A. Abbate et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010014
- Signals without action: a value chain analysis of Luxembourg's 2021 flood disaster J. Da Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-343-2026
- Revisiting the Use of the Gumbel Distribution: A Comprehensive Statistical Analysis Regarding Modeling Extremes and Rare Events C. Anghel https://doi.org/10.3390/math12162466
- Assessing the maximization potential for historical floods by spatio-temporal simulation of precipitation U. Haberlandt et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2636662
- Effective science communication in the face of water crises: a community perspective on challenges and best practice in HELPING C. Orieschnig et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2625282
- Considering rainfall events from a neighborhood improves local flood frequency analysis P. Voit et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2189-2026
- The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy-precipitation events across scales X. Guan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3075-2025
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Werden die Hochwasser größer? Ursachen, Trends und Handlungsoptionen G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-025-01165-5
- Rogue and extreme floods in North America P. Whitfield & D. Burn https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135389
- An In-Depth Statistical Analysis of the Pearson Type III Distribution Behavior in Modeling Extreme and Rare Events C. Anghel & D. Ianculescu https://doi.org/10.3390/w17101539
- Storylines of extreme precipitation events and flood impacts in alpine and pre-alpine environments under various global warming levels L. Munz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177791
- The exceptional hydrological disaster of April-May 2024 in southern Brazil W. Collischonn et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.302520240119
- Cascading impact chains and recovery challenges of the 2024 Valencia catastrophic floods A. Fekete et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01483-4
- Scaling Properties of Rainfall as a Basis for Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships and Their Spatial Distribution in Catalunya, NE Spain M. Casas-Castillo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020037
- Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards P. Voit & M. Heistermann https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024
- Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods L. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6
- Assessment of social vulnerability to floods based on fuzzy logic in a Mediterranean dense urban area: Palma, Mallorca, Spain A. Moragues et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105594
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- Application of the GEV Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis in Romania: An In-Depth Analysis C. Anghel & D. Ianculescu https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13070152
- Emergency forecasts for water levels in the Guaíba River during the 2024 unprecedented flood in South Brazil M. Medeiros et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.302520250025
- IDF Curve Modification Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Lombardy Region Using EURO-CORDEX Ensemble A. Abbate et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010014
- Signals without action: a value chain analysis of Luxembourg's 2021 flood disaster J. Da Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-343-2026
- Revisiting the Use of the Gumbel Distribution: A Comprehensive Statistical Analysis Regarding Modeling Extremes and Rare Events C. Anghel https://doi.org/10.3390/math12162466
- Assessing the maximization potential for historical floods by spatio-temporal simulation of precipitation U. Haberlandt et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2636662
- Effective science communication in the face of water crises: a community perspective on challenges and best practice in HELPING C. Orieschnig et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2625282
- Considering rainfall events from a neighborhood improves local flood frequency analysis P. Voit et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2189-2026
- The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy-precipitation events across scales X. Guan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3075-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Aug 2026
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet...
Special issue