Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–303, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-287-2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–303, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-287-2018
Research article
15 Jan 2018
Research article | 15 Jan 2018

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

Eric Mortensen et al.

Related authors

Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru
Colin Keating, Donghoon Lee, Juan Bazo, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2215–2231, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021, 2021
Short summary
Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, 2021
Short summary
Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models
John R. Mioduszewski, Stephen Vavrus, Muyin Wang, Marika Holland, and Laura Landrum
The Cryosphere, 13, 113–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019, 2019
Short summary
Climatology of Asian dust activation and transport potential based on MISR satellite observations and trajectory analysis
Yan Yu, Olga V. Kalashnikova, Michael J. Garay, and Michael Notaro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 363–378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-363-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-363-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Exploring the possible role of satellite-based rainfall data in estimating inter- and intra-annual global rainfall erosivity
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
Short summary
Critical transitions in the hydrological system: early-warning signals and network analysis
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Testing a maximum evaporation theory over saturated land: implications for potential evaporation estimation
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Aceituno, P. and Montecinos, A.: Análisis de la estabilidad de la relación entre la Oscilación del Sur y la precipitación en América del Sur, Bulletin de l'institut Francais d'Etudes Andines, 22, 53–64, 1993. 
Alegría, J. F.: The Challenges of Water Resources Management in Peru, Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project for Southern Andes of Peru, presented at: IAP Water Programme Regional Workshop for the Americas in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2006. 
Autoridad Nacional de Agua – ANA: Observatorio de Sequía Peruana, UNESCO, en colaboración con Minagri, Cenepred, Indeci, y la Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, y Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura, 2014. 
Autoridad Nacional de Agua – ANA: Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego ejecuta plan de contingencia por peligro inminente de déficit hídrico en el sur, artículo publicado por ANA, 2016. 
Bisetegne, D., Ogallo, L., and Ininda, J.: Rainfall characteristics in Ethiopia, Technical Conference on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 1986. 
Download
Short summary
Some do not realize the intrinsic importance of water until there is no water left. This is the reality faced by people in southern Peru, a dry area of the world where several economic activities and cities vie for scarce water resources. With the developed season-ahead precipitation prediction model, stakeholders and decision makers in this region will have another tool in their belt to respond to and plan for the negative impacts brought on by drought.