Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-287-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-287-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 15 Jan 2018
Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables
Eric Mortensen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
Michael Notaro
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
Stephen Vavrus
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
Rob Montgomery
Montgomery Associates Resource Solutions LLC, Cottage Grove, 53527,
USA
José De Piérola
Southern Peru Copper Corporation, Santiago de Surco, Lima 33, Peru
Carlos Sánchez
Southern Peru Copper Corporation, Santiago de Surco, Lima 33, Peru
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Olive Tree Water Status Using Land Surface Temperature and Vegetation Indices Derived from Landsat 5 and 8 Satellite Imagery in Southern Peru J. Quille-Mamani et al. 10.3390/agriculture14050662
- Training a hidden Markov model with PMDI and temperature to create climate informed scenarios B. Tezcan & M. Garcia 10.3389/frwa.2025.1472695
- Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change M. Delahoy et al. 10.1186/s12940-021-00703-4
- Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Finland Using Vine Copulas R. Mirabbasi et al. 10.1002/joc.8679
- A data-driven multi-model ensemble for deterministic and probabilistic precipitation forecasting at seasonal scale L. Xu et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05173-x
- A workflow to address pitfalls and challenges in applying machine learning models to hydrology A. Gharib & E. Davies 10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103920
- Multi-time scale analysis of the water level minima in Lake Titicaca over the past 103 years J. Sulca et al. 10.3389/fclim.2025.1564040
- Model Selection Based on Sectoral Application Scale for Increased Value of Hydroclimate-Prediction Information S. Alexander et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001044
- Spatio-temporal tendencies of urban land surface temperature on the Andean piedmont under climate change: A case study of Metropolitan Lima, Peru (1986–2024) D. Cano et al. 10.1016/j.rsase.2024.101378
- Efficacy of tendency and linear inverse models to predict southern Peru's rainy season precipitation S. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.5442
- Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin R. Zubieta et al. 10.3390/w13020175
- Assessment of drought time-frequency relationships with local atmospheric-land conditions and large-scale climatic factors in a tropical Andean basin A. Nieves et al. 10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100760
- Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach T. Zhao et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021
- Cascading droughts: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001) A. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179486
- Hydro-meteorological drought risk assessment using linear and nonlinear multivariate methods Z. Azhdari et al. 10.1016/j.pce.2021.103046
- Maximum and minimum air temperature lapse rates in the Andean region of Ecuador and Peru F. Navarro‐Serrano et al. 10.1002/joc.6574
- ENSO Index-Based Insurance for Agricultural Protection in Southern Peru E. Mortensen & P. Block 10.3390/geosciences8020064
- Stochastic time-series models for drought assessment in the Gaza Strip (Palestine) H. Al-Najjar et al. 10.2166/wcc.2020.330
- Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Vavrus et al. 10.1002/joc.7586
- Integration and Evaluation of Forecast-Informed Multiobjective Reservoir Operations G. Yang et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001229
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Olive Tree Water Status Using Land Surface Temperature and Vegetation Indices Derived from Landsat 5 and 8 Satellite Imagery in Southern Peru J. Quille-Mamani et al. 10.3390/agriculture14050662
- Training a hidden Markov model with PMDI and temperature to create climate informed scenarios B. Tezcan & M. Garcia 10.3389/frwa.2025.1472695
- Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change M. Delahoy et al. 10.1186/s12940-021-00703-4
- Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Finland Using Vine Copulas R. Mirabbasi et al. 10.1002/joc.8679
- A data-driven multi-model ensemble for deterministic and probabilistic precipitation forecasting at seasonal scale L. Xu et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05173-x
- A workflow to address pitfalls and challenges in applying machine learning models to hydrology A. Gharib & E. Davies 10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103920
- Multi-time scale analysis of the water level minima in Lake Titicaca over the past 103 years J. Sulca et al. 10.3389/fclim.2025.1564040
- Model Selection Based on Sectoral Application Scale for Increased Value of Hydroclimate-Prediction Information S. Alexander et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001044
- Spatio-temporal tendencies of urban land surface temperature on the Andean piedmont under climate change: A case study of Metropolitan Lima, Peru (1986–2024) D. Cano et al. 10.1016/j.rsase.2024.101378
- Efficacy of tendency and linear inverse models to predict southern Peru's rainy season precipitation S. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.5442
- Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin R. Zubieta et al. 10.3390/w13020175
- Assessment of drought time-frequency relationships with local atmospheric-land conditions and large-scale climatic factors in a tropical Andean basin A. Nieves et al. 10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100760
- Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach T. Zhao et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021
- Cascading droughts: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001) A. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179486
- Hydro-meteorological drought risk assessment using linear and nonlinear multivariate methods Z. Azhdari et al. 10.1016/j.pce.2021.103046
- Maximum and minimum air temperature lapse rates in the Andean region of Ecuador and Peru F. Navarro‐Serrano et al. 10.1002/joc.6574
- ENSO Index-Based Insurance for Agricultural Protection in Southern Peru E. Mortensen & P. Block 10.3390/geosciences8020064
- Stochastic time-series models for drought assessment in the Gaza Strip (Palestine) H. Al-Najjar et al. 10.2166/wcc.2020.330
- Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Vavrus et al. 10.1002/joc.7586
- Integration and Evaluation of Forecast-Informed Multiobjective Reservoir Operations G. Yang et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001229
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 14 Jul 2025
Short summary
Some do not realize the intrinsic importance of water until there is no water left. This is the reality faced by people in southern Peru, a dry area of the world where several economic activities and cities vie for scarce water resources. With the developed season-ahead precipitation prediction model, stakeholders and decision makers in this region will have another tool in their belt to respond to and plan for the negative impacts brought on by drought.
Some do not realize the intrinsic importance of water until there is no water left. This is the...
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