Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 12 Aug 2016
ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
Joost V. L. Beckers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Albrecht H. Weerts
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Erik Tijdeman
Department of Hydrology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Edwin Welles
Deltares USA Inc, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
Related authors
Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4021–4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
K. M. de Bruijn, F. L. M. Diermanse, and J. V. L. Beckers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. The new Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis method enables this. It is applied on societal flood fatality risks in the Rhine-Meuse deltas in the Netherlands.
Steven Reinaldo Rusli, Victor F. Bense, Syed M. T. Mustafa, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5107–5131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigate the impact of climatic and anthropogenic factors on future groundwater availability. The changes are simulated using hydrological and groundwater flow models. We find that future groundwater status is influenced more by anthropogenic factors than climatic factors. The results are beneficial for informing responsible parties in operational water management about achieving future (ground)water governance.
Devi Purnamasari, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Albrecht H. Weerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1929, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a method to identify irrigated areas by combining hydrology models with satellite temperature data. Our method was tested in the Rhine basin which aligns well with official statistics. It performs best in regions with large farms and less well in areas with small farms. Observed differences with existing data are influenced by data resolution and methods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping better prepare for and respond to floods.
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Marjanne J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods are damaging natural hazard which often occur in the European Alps. High resolution climate model output is combined with high resolution distributed hydrological models to model changes in flash flood frequency and intensity. Results show a similar flash flood frequency for autumn in the future, but a decrease in summer. However, the future discharge simulations indicate an increase in the flash flood severity in both summer and autumn leading to more severe flash flood impacts.
Bas J. M. Wullems, Claudia C. Brauer, Fedor Baart, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3823–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In deltas, saltwater sometimes intrudes far inland and causes problems with freshwater availability. We created a model to forecast salt concentrations at a critical location in the Rhine–Meuse delta in the Netherlands. It requires a rather small number of data to make a prediction and runs fast. It predicts the occurrence of salt concentration peaks well but underestimates the highest peaks. Its speed gives water managers more time to reduce the problems caused by salt intrusion.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Rolf W. Hut, Nick C. van de Giesen, Niels Drost, Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Pieter Hazenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4407–4430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years gridded hydrological modelling moved into the realm of hyper-resolution modelling (<10 km). In this study, we investigate the effect of varying grid-cell sizes for the wflow_sbm hydrological model. We used a large sample of basins from the CAMELS data set to test the effect that varying grid-cell sizes has on the simulation of streamflow at the basin outlet. Results show that there is no single best grid-cell size for modelling streamflow throughout the domain.
Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a modelling study to research potential future changes in flash flood occurrence in the European Alps. We use new high-resolution numerical climate simulations, which can simulate the type of local, intense rainstorms which trigger flash floods, combined with high-resolution hydrological modelling. We find that flash floods would become less frequent in summers in our future climate scenario, with little change in autumns. However, the maximal severity would increase in both seasons.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4061–4080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Imme Benedict, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Wilco Hazeleger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1779–1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1779-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs) and global hydrological models (GHMs) is increasing. This model study examines the benefits of a very high-resolution GCM and GHM in representing the hydrological cycle in the Rhine and Mississippi basins. We find that a higher-resolution GCM results in an improved precipitation budget, and therefore an improved hydrological cycle for the Rhine. For the Mississippi, no substantial improvements are found with increased resolution.
Bart van Osnabrugge, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Albrecht Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1453-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A correct estimate of the amount of future precipitation is the most important factor in making a good streamflow forecast, but evaporation is also an important component that determines the discharge of a river. However, in this study for the Rhine River we found that evaporation forecasts only give an almost negligible improvement compared to methods that use statistical information on climatology for a 10-day streamflow forecast. This is important to guide research on low flow forecasts.
Laurène Bouaziz, Albrecht Weerts, Jaap Schellekens, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6415–6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify net intercatchment groundwater flows in the Meuse basin in a complementary three-step approach through (1) water budget accounting, (2) testing a set of conceptual hydrological models and (3) evaluating against remote sensing actual evaporation data. We show that net intercatchment groundwater flows can make up as much as 25 % of mean annual precipitation in the headwaters and should therefore be accounted for in conceptual models to prevent overestimating actual evaporation rates.
Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jaap Schellekens, Marta Yebra, Hylke E. Beck, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albrecht Weerts, and Gennadii Donchyts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4959–4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4959-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4959-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation from wetlands, lakes and irrigation areas needs to be measured to understand water scarcity. So far, this has only been possible for small regions. Here, we develop a solution that can be applied at a very high resolution globally by making use of satellite observations. Our results show that 16% of global water resources evaporate before reaching the ocean, mostly from surface water. Irrigation water use is less than 1% globally but is a very large water user in several dry basins.
David R. Casson, Micha Werner, Albrecht Weerts, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4685–4697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4685-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4685-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In high-latitude (> 60° N) watersheds, measuring the snowpack and predicting of snowmelt runoff are uncertain due to the lack of data and complex physical processes. This provides challenges for hydrological assessment and operational water management. Global re-analysis datasets have great potential to aid in snowpack representation and snowmelt prediction when combined with a distributed hydrological model, though they still have clear limitations in remote boreal forest and tundra environments.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Hans J. van der Woerd, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Richard A. M. de Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4605–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilated three satellite soil moisture retrievals based on different microwave frequencies into a hydrological model. Two sets of experiments were performed, first assimilating the retrievals individually and then assimilating each set of two retrievals jointly. Overall, assimilation improved agreement between model and field-measured soil moisture. Joint assimilation resulted in model performance similar to or better than assimilating either retrieval individually.
Fabio Sai, Lydia Cumiskey, Albrecht Weerts, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Raihanul Haque Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-26, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The research tackled the challenge of flood impact-based forecasting and service for Bangladesh by proposing an approach based on colour coded as mean for linking forecasted water levels to possible impacts. This was tested at the local level and, although limited to the case study, the results encouraged us to share our outcomes for triggering interest in such approach and to foster further research aimed to move it forward.
Erik Tijdeman, Jamie Hannaford, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a screening approach was applied on a set of streamflow records for which various human influences are indicated to identify streamflow records that have drought characteristics that deviate from those expected under pristine conditions. Prolonged streamflow drought duration, a weaker correlation between streamflow and precipitation, and changes in streamflow drought occurrence over time were related to human influences such as groundwater abstractions or reservoir operations.
Imme Benedict, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Wilco Hazeleger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-473, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs) and global hydrological models (GHMs) is increasing. This study examines the benefits of a very high resolution GCM and GHM on representing the hydrological cycle in the Rhine and Mississippi basin. We conclude that increasing the resolution of a GCM is the most straightforward route to better precipitation and thereby discharge results, although this is depending on the climatic drivers of the basin.
Naze Candogan Yossef, Rens van Beek, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel Winsemius, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4103–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a skill assessment of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World. For 20 large basins of the world, forecasts using the ESP procedure are compared to forecasts using actual S3 seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles by ECMWF. The results are discussed in the context of prevailing hydroclimatic conditions per basin. The study concludes that in general, the skill of ECMWF S3 forecasts is close to that of the ESP forecasts.
Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4021–4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
Erik Tijdeman, Sophie Bachmair, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4043–4059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4043-2016, 2016
N. Dogulu, P. López López, D. P. Solomatine, A. H. Weerts, and D. L. Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3181–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, 2015
O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, J. Sumihar, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2911–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first analysis of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter in hydrological forecasting. The results of discharge assimilation into a hydrological model for the catchment show that including past predictions and observations in the filter improves model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between soil moisture and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting.
N. Tangdamrongsub, S. C. Steele-Dunne, B. C. Gunter, P. G. Ditmar, and A. H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2079–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2079-2015, 2015
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
K. M. de Bruijn, F. L. M. Diermanse, and J. V. L. Beckers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. The new Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis method enables this. It is applied on societal flood fatality risks in the Rhine-Meuse deltas in the Netherlands.
P. López López, J. S. Verkade, A. H. Weerts, and D. P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, 2014
D. Leedal, A. H. Weerts, P. J. Smith, and K. J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 177–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Monthly new water fractions and their relationships with climate and catchment properties across Alpine rivers
Technical note: Two-component electrical-conductivity-based hydrograph separation employing an exponential mixing model (EXPECT) provides reliable high-temporal-resolution young water fraction estimates in three small Swiss catchments
Flood frequency analysis using mean daily flows vs. instantaneous peak flows
On the regional-scale variability in flow duration curves in Peninsular India
Towards a conceptualization of the hydrological processes behind changes of young water fraction with elevation: a focus on mountainous alpine catchments
A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 2: Comparative assessment of a mixed probability vs. copula-based dependence framework
A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 1: Concept, performance, and effect of seasonality
Significant regime shifts in historical water yield in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin
A geostatistical spatially varying coefficient model for mean annual runoff that incorporates process-based simulations and short records
Low-flow estimation beyond the mean – expectile loss and extreme gradient boosting for spatiotemporal low-flow prediction in Austria
Impact of bias nonstationarity on the performance of uni- and multivariate bias-adjusting methods: a case study on data from Uccle, Belgium
A space–time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of seasonal maximum streamflow
Parsimonious statistical learning models for low-flow estimation
Development of a Wilks feature importance method with improved variable rankings for supporting hydrological inference and modelling
Technical Note: Improved partial wavelet coherency for understanding scale-specific and localized bivariate relationships in geosciences
Effects of climate anomalies on warm-season low flows in Switzerland
Histogram via entropy reduction (HER): an information-theoretic alternative for geostatistics
Estimation of annual runoff by exploiting long-term spatial patterns and short records within a geostatistical framework
A methodology to estimate flow duration curves at partially ungauged basins
The role of flood wave superposition in the severity of large floods
Contribution of low-frequency climatic–oceanic oscillations to streamflow variability in small, coastal rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (Colombia)
Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling
An assessment of trends and potential future changes in groundwater-baseflow drought based on catchment response times
More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years
Topography significantly influencing low flows in snow-dominated watersheds
A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data
Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China
Estimating unconsolidated sediment cover thickness by using the horizontal distance to a bedrock outcrop as secondary information
On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States
The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective
Heterogeneity measures in hydrological frequency analysis: review and new developments
Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records
Trends in floods in West Africa: analysis based on 11 catchments in the region
Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment
Spatial controls on groundwater response dynamics in a snowmelt-dominated montane catchment
Is bias correction of regional climate model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions?
Data compression to define information content of hydrological time series
Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?
Regionalised spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature models for flood studies in the Basque Country, Spain
Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves – Part 1: Insights from statistical analyses
Land cover and water yield: inference problems when comparing catchments with mixed land cover
An elusive search for regional flood frequency estimates in the River Nile basin
Interannual hydroclimatic variability and its influence on winter nutrient loadings over the Southeast United States
Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal scale of adjustment
Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?
Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow
Applying sequential Monte Carlo methods into a distributed hydrologic model: lagged particle filtering approach with regularization
Low-frequency variability of European runoff
Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France
Regional flow duration curves for ungauged sites in Sicily
Marius G. Floriancic, Michael P. Stockinger, James W. Kirchner, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3675–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Alps are a key water resource for central Europe, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower production. To assess water availability in streams, we need to understand how much streamflow is derived from old water stored in the subsurface versus more recent precipitation. We use tracer data from 32 Alpine streams and statistical tools to assess how much recent precipitation can be found in Alpine rivers and how this amount is related to catchment properties and climate.
Alessio Gentile, Jana von Freyberg, Davide Gisolo, Davide Canone, and Stefano Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1915–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Can we leverage high-resolution and low-cost EC measurements and biweekly δ18O data to estimate the young water fraction at higher temporal resolution? Here, we present the EXPECT method that combines two widespread techniques: EC-based hydrograph separation and sine-wave models of the seasonal isotope cycles. The method is not without its limitations, but its application in three small Swiss catchments is promising for future applications in catchments with different characteristics.
Anne Bartens, Bora Shehu, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1687–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River flow data are often provided as mean daily flows (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flows (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDF instead of IPF and identify means to predict IPF when only MDF data are available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
Pankaj Dey, Jeenu Mathai, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Pradeep P. Mujumdar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1493–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the regional streamflow variability in Peninsular India. This variability is governed by monsoons, mountainous systems, and geologic gradients. A linkage between these influencing factors and streamflow variability is established using a Wegenerian approach and flow duration curves.
Alessio Gentile, Davide Canone, Natalie Ceperley, Davide Gisolo, Maurizio Previati, Giulia Zuecco, Bettina Schaefli, and Stefano Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2301–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
What drives young water fraction, F*yw (i.e., the fraction of water in streamflow younger than 2–3 months), variations with elevation? Why is F*yw counterintuitively low in high-elevation catchments, in spite of steeper topography? In this paper, we present a perceptual model explaining how the longer low-flow duration at high elevations, driven by the persistence of winter snowpacks, increases the proportion of stored (old) water contributing to the stream, thus reducing F*yw.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2019–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes so that return periods used as a measure of event severity will be inaccurate. We propose a novel mixed copula estimator that is shown to outperform previous calculation methods. The new method is highly relevant for a wide range of European river flow regimes and should be used by default.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 689–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the severity of an extreme event is of particular importance to hydrology and water policies. In this paper we propose a mixed distribution approach for low flows. It provides one consistent approach to quantify the severity of summer, winter, and annual low flows based on their respective annualities (or return periods). We show that the new method is much more accurate than existing methods and should therefore be used by engineers and water agencies.
Hao Li, Baoying Shan, Liu Liu, Lei Wang, Akash Koppa, Feng Zhong, Dongfeng Li, Xuanxuan Wang, Wenfeng Liu, Xiuping Li, and Zongxue Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6399–6412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines changes in water yield by determining turning points in the direction of yield changes and highlights that regime shifts in historical water yield occurred in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin, both the climate and cryosphere affect the magnitude of water yield increases, climate determined the declining trends in water yield, and meltwater has the potential to alleviate the water shortage. A repository for all source files is made available.
Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5391–5410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this work was to make a map of the mean annual runoff for Norway for a 30-year period. We first simulated runoff by using a process-based model that models the relationship between runoff, precipitation, temperature, and land use. Next, we corrected the map based on runoff observations from streams by using a statistical method. We were also able to use data from rivers that only had a few annual observations. We find that the statistical correction improves the runoff estimates.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4553–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study uses a statistical boosting model for estimating low flows on a monthly basis, which can be applied to estimate low flows at sites without measurements. We use an extensive dataset of 260 stream gauges in Austria for model development. As we are specifically interested in low-flow events, our method gives specific weight to such events. We found that our method can considerably improve the predictions of low-flow events and yields accurate estimates of the seasonal low-flow variation.
Jorn Van de Velde, Matthias Demuzere, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An important step in projecting future climate is the bias adjustment of the climatological and hydrological variables. In this paper, we illustrate how bias adjustment can be impaired by bias nonstationarity. Two univariate and four multivariate methods are compared, and for both types bias nonstationarity can be linked with less robust adjustment.
Álvaro Ossandón, Manuela I. Brunner, Balaji Rajagopalan, and William Kleiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 149–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood risk mitigation, but this is challenging, particularly under space–time nonstationarity. We develop a space–time Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using temporal climate covariates and copulas to project seasonal streamflow extremes and the attendant uncertainties. We demonstrate this on the Upper Colorado River basin to project spring flow extremes using the preceding winter’s climate teleconnections.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to predict long-term averages of low flow on a hydrologically diverse dataset in Austria. We compared seven statistical learning methods and included a backward variable selection approach. We found that separating the low-flow processes into winter and summer low flows leads to good performance for all the models. Variable selection results in more parsimonious and more interpretable models. Linear approaches for prediction and variable selection are sufficient for our dataset.
Kailong Li, Guohe Huang, and Brian Baetz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4947–4966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4947-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4947-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a test statistic feature importance method to quantify the importance of predictor variables for random-forest-like models. The proposed method does not rely on any performance measures to evaluate variable rankings, which can thus result in unbiased variable rankings. The resulting variable rankings based on the proposed method could help random forest achieve its optimum predictive accuracy.
Wei Hu and Bing Si
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Partial wavelet coherency method is improved to explore the bivariate relationships at different scales and locations after excluding the effects of other variables. The method was tested with artificial datasets and applied to a measured dataset. Compared with others, this method has the advantages of capturing phase information, dealing with multiple excluding variables, and producing more accurate results. This method can be used in different areas with spatial or temporal datasets.
Marius G. Floriancic, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Tobias Jonas, James W. Kirchner, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Low river flows affect societies and ecosystems. Here we study how precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shape low flows across a network of 380 Swiss catchments. Low flows in these rivers typically result from below-average precipitation and above-average potential evapotranspiration. Extreme low flows result from long periods of the combined effects of both drivers.
Stephanie Thiesen, Diego M. Vieira, Mirko Mälicke, Ralf Loritz, J. Florian Wellmann, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A spatial interpolator has been proposed for exploring the information content of the data in the light of geostatistics and information theory. It showed comparable results to traditional interpolators, with the advantage of presenting generalization properties. We discussed three different ways of combining distributions and their implications for the probabilistic results. By its construction, the method provides a suitable and flexible framework for uncertainty analysis and decision-making.
Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Annual runoff is a measure of how much water flows through a river during a year and is an important quantity, e.g. when planning infrastructure. In this paper, we suggest a new statistical model for annual runoff estimation. The model exploits correlation between rivers and is able to detect whether the annual runoff in the target river follows repeated patterns over time relative to neighbouring rivers. In our work we show for what cases the latter represents a benefit over comparable methods.
Elena Ridolfi, Hemendra Kumar, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a new, simple and model-free methodology to estimate the streamflow at partially gauged basins, given the precipitation gauged at another basin. We show that the FDC is not a characteristic of the basin only, but of both the basin and the weather. Because of the dependence on the climate, discharge data at the target site are here retrieved using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) of the donor site as it represents in a streamflow-like way the precipitation of the basin.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Juan Camilo Restrepo, Aldemar Higgins, Jaime Escobar, Silvio Ospino, and Natalia Hoyos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2379–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the influence of low-frequency oscillations that are linked to large-scale oceanographic–atmospheric processes, on streamflow variability in small mountain rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia, aiming to explore streamflow variability, estimate the net contribution to the energy of low-frequency oscillations to streamflow anomalies, and analyze the linkages between streamflow anomalies and large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic–atmospheric processes.
Jens Grundmann, Sebastian Hörning, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 225–237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, 2019
Jost Hellwig and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6209–6224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the lack of long-term observations, insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured. In this paper we assess past and potential future changes in groundwater drought in headwater catchments using a baseflow approach. There are a few past trends which are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Catchments with short response times are found to have a higher sensitivity to projected seasonal precipitation shifts, urging for a local management based on response times.
Qiang Zhang, Xihui Gu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, and Peng Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, 2018
Qiang Li, Xiaohua Wei, Xin Yang, Krysta Giles-Hansen, Mingfang Zhang, and Wenfei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1947–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Topography plays an important role in determining the spatial heterogeneity of ecological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. Topography plays a more dominant role in low flows than high flows. Our analysis also identified five significant TIs: perimeter, slope length factor, surface area, openness, and terrain characterization index. These can be used to compare watersheds when low flow assessments are conducted, specifically in snow-dominated regions.
Yan-Fang Sang, Fubao Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Ping Xie, and Jian Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, 2018
Zhi Li and Jiming Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5531–5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an efficient multisite and multivariate GCM downscaling method and generated climate change scenarios for SWAT to evaluate the streamflow variability within a watershed in China. The application of the ensemble techniques enables us to better quantify the model uncertainties. The peak values of precipitation and streamflow have a tendency to shift from the summer to spring season over the next 30 years. The number of extreme flooding and drought events will increase.
Nils-Otto Kitterød
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4195–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The GRANADA open-access database (NGU, 2016a) was used to derive point recordings of thickness of sediment above the bedrock D(u). For each D(u) the horizontal distance to nearest outcrop L(u) was derived from geological maps. The purpose was to utilize L(u) as a secondary function for estimation of D(u). Two estimation methods were employed: ordinary kriging (OK) and co-kriging (CK). A cross-validation analysis was performed to evaluate the additional information in the secondary function L(u).
Annalise G. Blum, Stacey A. Archfield, and Richard M. Vogel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3093–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Flow duration curves are ubiquitous in surface water hydrology for applications including water allocation and protection of ecosystem health. We identify three probability distributions that can provide a reasonable fit to daily streamflows across much of United States. These results help us understand of the behavior of daily streamflows and enhance our ability to predict streamflows at ungaged river locations.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Ana I. Requena, Fateh Chebana, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1651–1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The notion of a measure to quantify the degree of heterogeneity of a region from which information is required to estimate the magnitude of events at ungauged sites is introduced. These heterogeneity measures are needed to compare regions, evaluate the impact of particular sites, and rank the performance of delineating methods. A framework to define and assess their desirable properties is proposed. Several heterogeneity measures are presented and/or developed to be assessed, giving guidelines.
William H. Farmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of geostatistical tools, leveraging the spatial structure and dependency of correlated time series, for the prediction of daily streamflow time series at unmonitored locations is explored. Simple geostatistical tools improve on traditional estimates of daily streamflow. The temporal evolution of spatial structure, including seasonal fluctuations, is also explored. The proposed method is contrasted with more advanced geostatistical methods and shown to be comparable.
B. N. Nka, L. Oudin, H. Karambiri, J. E. Paturel, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4707–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The region of West Africa is undergoing important climate and environmental changes affecting the magnitude and occurrence of floods. This study aims to analyze the evolution of flood hazard in the region and to find links between flood hazards pattern and rainfall or vegetation index patterns.
D. E. Keller, A. M. Fischer, C. Frei, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, and R. Knutti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2163–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, 2015
R. S. Smith, R. D. Moore, M. Weiler, and G. Jost
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1835–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, 2014
C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, 2013
S. V. Weijs, N. van de Giesen, and M. B. Parlange
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3171–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3171-2013, 2013
S. A. Archfield, A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, J. O. Skøien, and J. E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1575–1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, 2013
P. Cowpertwait, D. Ocio, G. Collazos, O. de Cos, and C. Stocker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 479–494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-479-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-479-2013, 2013
L. Cheng, M. Yaeger, A. Viglione, E. Coopersmith, S. Ye, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4435–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4435-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4435-2012, 2012
A. I. J. M. van Dijk, J. L. Peña-Arancibia, and L. A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3461–3473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3461-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3461-2012, 2012
P. Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P. Willems, F. M. Mutua, and S. A. Moges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3149–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3149-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3149-2012, 2012
J. Oh and A. Sankarasubramanian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2285-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2285-2012, 2012
H. Lee, D.-J. Seo, Y. Liu, V. Koren, P. McKee, and R. Corby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2233–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2233-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2233-2012, 2012
H. E. Dahlke, S. W. Lyon, J. R. Stedinger, G. Rosqvist, and P. Jansson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2123–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2123-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2123-2012, 2012
F. F. van Ogtrop, R. W. Vervoort, G. Z. Heller, D. M. Stasinopoulos, and R. A. Rigby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3343–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3343-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3343-2011, 2011
S. J. Noh, Y. Tachikawa, M. Shiiba, and S. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3237-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3237-2011, 2011
L. Gudmundsson, L. M. Tallaksen, K. Stahl, and A. K. Fleig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2853–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011, 2011
E. Sauquet and C. Catalogne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2421–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011, 2011
F. Viola, L. V. Noto, M. Cannarozzo, and G. La Loggia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 323–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-323-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-323-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Abudu, S., King, J. P., and Pagano, T. C.: Application of Partial Least-Squares Regression in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting, J. Hydrol. Eng., 8, 612–623, 2010.
Anderson, E. A.: A Point Energy and Mass Balance Model of a Snow Cover', NOAA Technical Report NWS 19, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, 1976.
Barnett, T. P.: The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system, J. Climate, 4, 269–285, 1991.
Beebee, R. A. and Manga, M.: Variation in the relationship between snowmelt runoff in Oregon and ENSO and PDO, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 40, 1011–1024, 2004.
Bradley, A. A., Habib, M., and Schwartz, S. S.: Climate index weighting of ensemble streamflow forecasts using a simple Bayesian approach, Water Resour. Res., 51, 7382–7400, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016811, 2015.
Brandsma, T. and Buishand, T. A.: Simulation of extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin by nearest-neighbour resampling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 195–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2-195-1998, 1998.
Brown, J. D., Demargne, J., Seo, D.-J., and Liu, Y.: The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25, 854–872, 2010.
Burnash, R. J. C.: The NWS River Forecast System - catchment modeling, in: Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, 311–366, 1995.
Burnash, R. J. C., Ferral, R. L., and McGuire, R. A.: A Generalized Streamflow Simulation System – Conceptual Modeling for Digital Computers, US Department of Commerce, National Weather Service and State of California, Dept. of Water Resources, Technical Report, Sacramento, CA, 1973.
Clark, M. P. and Hay, L. E.: Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 15–32, 2004.
Croley II, T. E.: Using NOAA's new climate outlooks in operational hydrology, J. Hydrol. Eng., 1, 93–102, 1996.
Croley II, T. E.: Mixing probabilistic meteorology outlooks in operational hydrology, J. Hydrol. Eng., 2, 161–168, 1997.
Day, G. N.: Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 111, 157–170, 1985.
Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V.: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
Dracup, J. A., and Kahya, E.: The relationships between U.S. streamflow and La Niña events, Water Resour. Res., 30, 2133–2141, 1994.
Druce, D. J.: Insights from a history of seasonal inflow forecasting with a conceptual hydrologic model, J. Hydrol., 249, 102–112, 2001.
Ferro, C. A. T.: Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score, Weather Forecast., 22, 1076–1088, 2007.
Ferro, C. A. T., Richardson, D. S., and Weigel, A. P.: On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 19–24, 2008.
Franz, K. J., Hartmann, H. C., Sorooshian, S., and Bales, R.: Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1105–1118, 2003.
Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D. L., and Mantua, N. J.: Columbia River flow and drought since 1750, J. Am. Water Res. As., 40, 1579–1592, 2012.
Gijsbers, P. J. A., Cajina, L., Dietz, C., Roe, J. M., and Welles, E.: CHPS – an NWS development to enter the interoperability era, Eos Trans. AGU, 90, Fall Meeting 2009 Suppl. Abstract IN11A-1041, 2009.
Halpert, M. S. and Ropelewski, C. F.: Surface temperature patterns associated with the southern oscillation, J. Climate, 5, 577–593, 1992.
Halpert, M. S. and Ropelewski, C. F.: Surface temperature patterns associated with the southern oscillation, J. Climate, 5, 577–593, 1992.
Hamlet, A. F. and Lettenmaier, D. L.: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, J. Water Resour. Pl. Manage., 125, 333–341, 1999.
Hay, L. E., McCabe, G. J., Clark, M. P., and Risley, J. C.: Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: Application and qualitative assessment of the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon, J. Am. Water Res. Assoc., 45, 580–596, 2009.
Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E., Shaffrey, L., Böcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M., and Eade, R.: Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5770–5775, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630, 2013
Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B.: Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science, Wiley, New York, 2003.
Kahya, E. and Dracup, J. A.: United-States streamflow patterns in relation to the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2491–2503, 1993.
Kang, T.-H., Kim, Y.-O. and Hong, I.-P.: Comparison of pre- and post-processors for ensemble streamflow prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 153–159, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.276, 2010.
Kiladis, G. N. and Diaz, H. F.: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the southern oscillation, J. Climate, 2, 69–90, 1989.
Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., and Scaife, A. A.: Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026242, 2006.
Lau, K. M. and Sheu, P.: Annual cycle, QBO and Southern Oscillation in global precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 10975–10988, 1988.
Leung, L. R., Hamlet, A. F., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Kumar, A. A.: Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 2313–2330, 1999.
Li, H., Luo, L., Wood, E. F., and Schaake, J.: The role of initial conditions and forcing uncertainties in seasonal hydrologic forecasting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010969, 2009.
Lü, A., Jia, S., Zhu, W., Yan, H., Duan, S., and Yao, Z.: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1273–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1273-2011, 2011.
Madadgar, S., Moradkhani, H., and Garen, D.: Towards improved reliability and reduced uncertainty of hydrologic ensemble forecasts using multivariate postprocessing, Hydrol. Process., 28, 104–122, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9562, 2012.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. C.: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, 1997.
McCabe, G. J. and Dettinger, M. D.: Primary modes and predictability of year to year snowpack variations in the western United States from teleconnections with Pacific ocean climate, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 13–25, 2002.
McEnery, J., Ingram, J., Duan, Q., Adams, T., and Anderson, L: NOAA's advanced hydrologic prediction service: building pathways for better science in water forecasting, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 375–385, 2005.
Najafi, M. R., Moradkhani, H., and Piechota, T. C.: Climate signal weighting methods vs. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, J. Hydrol., 442–443, 105–116, 2012.
Perica, S.: Integration of Meteorological Forecasts/Climate Outlooks into an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System, 14th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 78th AMS Ann. Meet., Phoenix, AZ, 130–133, 1998.
Philander, S. G.: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, in: Int. Geophys. Ser. Vol. 46, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 293 pp., 1990.
Pica, J. A.: Review of Extended Streamflow Prediction of the National Weather Service River Forecast System, CE505 Conference Course, Civil Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, 1997.
Piechota, T. C. and Dracup, J. A.: Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 32, 1359–1373, 1996.
Piechota, T. C., Dracup, J. A., and Fovell, R. G.: Western US streamflow and atmospheric circulation patterns during El Niño Southern Oscillation, J. Hydrol., 201, 249–271, 1997.
Redmond, K. T. and Koch, R. W.: Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large scale circulation indices, Water Resour. Res., 27, 2381–2399, 1991.
Richardson, D. S.: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2473–2489, 2001.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2352–2362, 1986.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: Quantifying Southern Oscillation–Precipitation Relationships, J. Climate, 9, 1043–1059, 1996.
Sagarika, S., Kalra, A., and Ahmad, S.: Interconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and variability in the U.S. streamflow. J. Hydrol., 525, 724–736, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.020, 2015.
Shukla, S. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3529–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011, 2011.
Stedinger, J. R. and Kim, Y. O.: Probabilities for ensemble forecasts reflecting climate information, J. Hydrol., 391, 11–25, 2010.
Tootle, G. A. and Piechota, T. C.: Relationships between Pacific and Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and U.S. streamflow variability, Water Resour. Res., 42, W07411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004184, 2006.
Tootle, G. A., Piechota, T. C., and Singh, A. K.: Coupled oceanic-atmospheric variability and US. streamflow, Water Resour. Res., 41, W12408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004381, 2005.
Tootle, G. A., Singh, A. K., Piechota, T. C., and Farnham, I.: Long Lead-Time Forecasting of U.S. Streamflow Using Partial Least Squares Regression, J. Hydrol. Eng., 12, 442–451, 2007.
Twedt, T. M., Schaake, J. C., and Peck, E. L.: National weather service extended streamflow prediction, Proc. Western Snow Conference, Albuquerque, NM, 52–57, 1977.
Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: Generalization of the discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores for weighted multi-model ensemble forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 2778–2785, 2007.
Weijs, S. V. and van de Giesen, N.: An information-theoretical perspective on weighted ensemble forecasts, J. Hydrol., 498, 177–190, 2013.
Werner, K., Brandon, D., Clark, M., and Gangopadhyay, S.: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 1076–1090, 2004.
Werner, M., Schellekens, J., Gijsbers, P., van Dijk, M., van den Akker, O., and Heynert, K.: The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environ. Model. Softw., 40, 65–77, 2013.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, London, 2006
Wolter, K. and Timlin, M. S.: Measuring the strength of ENSO – how does 1997/98 rank?, Weather, 53, 315–324, 1998.
Wood, A. W., Maurer, E. P., Kumar, A., and Lettenmaier, D.: Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4429, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000659, 2002.
Wood, A. W. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western US, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1699–1712, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699, 2006.
Wood, A. W. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034648, 2008.
Wood, A. W., Kumar, A., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D04105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd004508, 2005.
Yossef, N. C., Winsemius, H., Weerts, A., van Beek, R., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4687–4699, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20350, 2013.
Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., and Ma, Z.: A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development, WIREs Water, 2, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1088, 2015.
Short summary
Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is presented for ENSO conditioning of the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method, which is often used for seasonal streamflow forecasting. The method was tested on three tributaries of the Columbia River, OR. Results show an improvement in forecast skill compared to the standard ESP.
Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to...
Special issue