Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Dec 2014
Research article |
| 11 Dec 2014
A virtual water network of the Roman world
Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
R. P. H. van Beek
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht, the Netherlands
E. Meeks
Stanford University Library, Palo Alto, USA
K. Klein Goldewijk
Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, De Bilt, the Netherlands
W. Scheidel
Stanford University, Department of Classics, Palo Alto, USA
Y. van der Velde
Wageningen University, Department of soil, geography and landscape, Wageningen, the Netherlands
M. F. P. Bierkens
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht, the Netherlands
M. J. Wassen
Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
S. C. Dekker
Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
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Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
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Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5859–5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5859-2021, 2021
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Jan L. Gunnink, Hung Van Pham, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3691–3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3691-2021, 2021
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Edward R. Jones, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Manzoor Qadir, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-69-2021, 2021
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George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
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Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
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Joeri van Engelen, Jarno Verkaik, Jude King, Eman R. Nofal, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5175–5198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5175-2019, 2019
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The Nile Delta is an important agricultural area with a fast-growing population, relying increasingly on groundwater. However, saline groundwater extends far land-inward, rendering groundwater close to the coastal zone useless for consumption or agriculture. It normally is assumed that this is caused by mixing due to velocity differences, but here we show that it might also be caused by the coastline being located more land-inward 8000 years ago.
John O'Connor, Maria J. Santos, Karin T. Rebel, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3917–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3917-2019, 2019
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The Amazon rainforest has undergone extensive land use change, which greatly reduces the rate of evapotranspiration. Forest with deep roots is replaced by agriculture with shallow roots. The difference in rooting depth can greatly reduce access to water, especially during the dry season. However, large areas of the Amazon have a sufficiently shallow water table that may provide access for agriculture. We used remote sensing observations to compare the impact of deep and shallow water tables.
Rémon M. Saaltink, Maria Barciela-Rial, Thijs van Kessel, Stefan C. Dekker, Hugo J. de Boer, Claire Chassange, Jasper Griffioen, Martin J. Wassen, and Johan C. Winterwerp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-194, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper focusses on exploring an alternative approach that uses natural processes, rather than a technological solution, to speed up drainage of soft sediment. In a controlled column experiment, we studied how Phragmites australis can act as an ecological engineer that enhances drainage. The presented results provide information needed for predictive modelling of plants as ecological engineers to speed up soil forming processes in the construction of wetlands with soft cohesive sediment.
Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1591–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1591-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1591-2018, 2018
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An increasing number of coastal areas worldwide are facing a threat of groundwater quality degradation by saltwater intrusion. Groundwater flow models help to get a better idea of the volumes of fresh groundwater reserves in these areas. Our research provides information on aquifer thickness, which is one of the most important parameters for such models. However, we found that geological complexity of coastal aquifer systems is at least equally as important a factor for accurate predictions.
Kees Nooren, Wim Z. Hoek, Brian J. Dermody, Didier Galop, Sarah Metcalfe, Gerald Islebe, and Hans Middelkoop
Clim. Past, 14, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, 2018
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We present two new palaeoclimatic records for the central Maya lowlands, adding valuable new insights to the impact of climate change on the development of Maya civilisation. Lake Tuspan's diatom record is indicative of precipitation changes at a local scale, while a beach ridge elevation record from the world's largest late Holocene beach ridge plain provides a regional picture.
Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, Niko Wanders, Yoshihide Wada, Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Niels Drost, Ruud J. van der Ent, Inge E. M. de Graaf, Jannis M. Hoch, Kor de Jong, Derek Karssenberg, Patricia López López, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Oliver Schmitz, Menno W. Straatsma, Ekkamol Vannametee, Dominik Wisser, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018
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PCR-GLOBWB 2 is an integrated hydrology and water resource model that fully integrates water use simulation and consolidates all features that have been developed since PCR-GLOBWB 1 was introduced. PCR-GLOBWB 2 can have a global coverage at 5 arcmin resolution and supersedes PCR-GLOBWB 1, which has a resolution of 30 arcmin only. Comparing the 5 arcmin with 30 arcmin simulations using discharge data, we clearly find improvement in the model performance of the higher-resolution model.
Sebastian Huizer, Max Radermacher, Sierd de Vries, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1065–1080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1065-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1065-2018, 2018
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For a large beach nourishment called the Sand Engine we have examined the impact of groundwater recharge, tides, storm surges, and geomorphological changes on the growth of the fresh groundwater resources between 2011 and 2016. With detailed model simulations of these coastal processes we were able to get a good match with field measurements, and demonstrated the importance of wave runup and coastal erosion in studies on fresh groundwater in such dynamic coastal environments.
Brian J. Dermody, Murugesu Sivapalan, Elke Stehfest, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Martin J. Wassen, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Stefan C. Dekker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 103–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, 2018
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Ensuring sustainable food and water security is an urgent and complex challenge. As the world becomes increasingly globalised and interdependent, food and water management policies may have unintended consequences across regions, sectors and scales. Current decision-making tools do not capture these complexities and thus miss important dynamics. We present a modelling framework to capture regional and sectoral interdependence and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system.
Fernando Jaramillo, Neil Cory, Berit Arheimer, Hjalmar Laudon, Ype van der Velde, Thomas B. Hasper, Claudia Teutschbein, and Johan Uddling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-567-2018, 2018
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Which is the dominant effect on evapotranspiration in northern forests, an increase by recent forests expansion or a decrease by the water use response due to increasing CO2 concentrations? We determined the dominant effect during the period 1961–2012 in 65 Swedish basins. We used the Budyko framework to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space. Our findings suggest that forest expansion is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
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Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, Jonathan Doelman, and Elke Stehfest
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017
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This is an update of HYDE, which is an internally consistent combination of historical population estimates and time-dependent land use allocation algorithms for 10 000 BCE–2015 CE. Categories include cropland, separated into irrigated and rain-fed rice and non-rice crops. Grazing lands are divided into more intensely used pasture and less intensively used rangelands. Population includes total, urban, and rural population and population density and built-up area.
Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5603–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5603-2017, 2017
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We investigate how changes in land cover, such as deforestation, affect river runoff and evaporation from the land surface. We use computer simulations to show that the impact of land cover changes is significant and, when globally averaged, it is as important as more direct human impacts through water use (such as irrigation). There is large spatial variability in the impact of land cover change, with the largest changes when tall vegetation (such as forests) is replaced by crop fields.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Jannis M. Hoch, Jeffrey C. Neal, Fedor Baart, Rens van Beek, Hessel C. Winsemius, Paul D. Bates, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3913–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, 2017
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To improve flood hazard assessments, it is vital to model all relevant processes. We here present GLOFRIM, a framework for coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to increase the number of physical processes represented in hazard computations. GLOFRIM is openly available, versatile, and extensible with more models. Results also underpin its added value for model benchmarking, showing that not only model forcing but also grid properties and the numerical scheme influence output accuracy.
Stefanie R. Lutz, Ype van der Velde, Omniea F. Elsayed, Gwenaël Imfeld, Marie Lefrancq, Sylvain Payraudeau, and Boris M. van Breukelen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5243–5261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5243-2017, 2017
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This study presents concentration and carbon isotope data of two herbicides from a small agricultural catchment. Herbicide concentrations at the catchment outlet were highest after intense rainfall events. The isotope data indicated herbicide degradation within 2 months after application. The system was modelled with a conceptual mathematical model using the transport formulation by travel-time distributions, which allowed testing of various assumptions of pesticide transport and degradation.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
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Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Naze Candogan Yossef, Rens van Beek, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel Winsemius, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4103–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a skill assessment of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World. For 20 large basins of the world, forecasts using the ESP procedure are compared to forecasts using actual S3 seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles by ECMWF. The results are discussed in the context of prevailing hydroclimatic conditions per basin. The study concludes that in general, the skill of ECMWF S3 forecasts is close to that of the ESP forecasts.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
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Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Emmy E. Stigter, Niko Wanders, Tuomo M. Saloranta, Joseph M. Shea, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 11, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, 2017
Martyn P. Clark, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Luis Samaniego, Ross A. Woods, Remko Uijlenhoet, Katrina E. Bennett, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Xitian Cai, Andrew W. Wood, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3427–3440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017, 2017
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The diversity in hydrologic models has led to controversy surrounding the “correct” approach to hydrologic modeling. In this paper we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, summarize modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
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The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Patricia López López, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jaap Schellekens, Geert Sterk, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3125–3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3125-2017, 2017
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We perform various calibration experiments of a large-scale hydrological model using satellite-based products of evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the Oum Er Rbia River basin in Morocco. In addition, we study the impact on discharge estimates of three global precipitation products in comparison with model parameter calibration. Results show that evapotranspiration and soil moisture observations can be used for model calibration, resulting in discharge estimates of acceptable accuracy.
Jannis M. Hoch, Arjen V. Haag, Arthur van Dam, Hessel C. Winsemius, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, 2017
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Modelling inundations is pivotal to assess current and future flood hazard, and to define sound measures and policies. Yet, many models focus on the hydrologic or hydrodynamic aspect of floods only. We combined both by spatially coupling a hydrologic with a hydrodynamic model. This way we are able to balance the weaknesses of each model with the strengths of the other. We found that model coupling can indeed strongly improve discharge simulation, and see big potential in our approach.
Rolf Hut, Niels Drost, Maarten van Meersbergen, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Marc Bierkens, and Nick van de Giesen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-225, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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A system that predicts the amount of water flowing in each river on earth, 9 days ahead, is build using existing parts of open source computer code build by different researchers in other projects.
The glue between all pre-existing parts are all open interfaces which means that the pieces system click together like a house of LEGOs. It is easy to remove a piece (a brick) and replace it with another, improved, piece.
The resulting predictions are available online at forecast.ewatercycle.org
Rémon Saaltink, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Martin J. Wassen
Biogeosciences, 13, 4945–4957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4945-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4945-2016, 2016
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We identified biogeochemical plant–soil feedback processes that occur when oxidation, drying and modification by plants alter sediment conditions. Wetland construction in Markermeer (a lake in the Netherlands) is used as a case study. Natural processes will be utilized during and after construction to accelerate ecosystem development. We conducted a 6-month greenhouse experiment to identify the key biogeochemical processes in the mud when Phragmites australis is used as an eco-engineer.
Sebastian Huizer, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3149–3166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3149-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3149-2016, 2016
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The anticipation of sea-level rise has led to an innovative project called the Sand Engine, where a large volume of sand was placed on the Dutch coast. The intention is that the sand is redistributed by wind, current and tide, reinforcing coastal defence structures. Model simulations show that this large sand replenishment can result in a substantial growth of fresh groundwater resources. Thus, sand replenishments could combine coastal protection with an increase of fresh groundwater resources.
Patricia López López, Niko Wanders, Jaap Schellekens, Luigi J. Renzullo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3059–3076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3059-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3059-2016, 2016
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We perform a joint assimilation experiment of high-resolution satellite soil moisture and discharge observations in the Murrumbidgee River basin with a large-scale hydrological model. Additionally, we study the impact of high- and low-resolution meteorological forcing on the model performance. We show that the assimilation of high-resolution satellite soil moisture and discharge observations has a significant impact on discharge simulations and can bring them closer to locally calibrated models.
Stefan C. Dekker, Margriet Groenendijk, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 525–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, 2016
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Our analysis allows us to infer maps of changing plant water-use efficiency (WUE) for 1901–2010, using atmospheric observations of temperature, humidity and CO2. Our estimated increase in global WUE is consistent with the tree-ring and eddy covariance data, but much larger than the historical WUE increases simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). We therefore conclude that the effects of increasing CO2 on plant WUE are significantly underestimated in the latest climate projections.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
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Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
Arthur H. W. Beusen, Alexander F. Bouwman, Ludovicus P. H. Van Beek, José M. Mogollón, and Jack J. Middelburg
Biogeosciences, 13, 2441–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2441-2016, 2016
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Intensifying anthropogenic activity over the 20th century including agriculture, water consumption, urbanization, and aquaculture has almost doubled the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery to streams and steadily increased the N : P ratio in freshwater bodies. Concurrently, the cumulative number of reservoirs has driven a rise in freshwater nutrient retention and removal. Still, river nutrient transport to the ocean has also nearly doubled, potentially stressing coastal environments.
Patrick W. Bogaart, Ype van der Velde, Steve W. Lyon, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1413–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1413-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1413-2016, 2016
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We analyse how stream discharge declines after rain storms. This "recession" behaviour contains information about the capacity of the catchment to hold or release water. Looking at many rivers in Sweden, we were able to link distinct recession regimes to land use and catchment characteristics. Trends in recession behaviour are found to correspond to intensifying agriculture and extensive reforestation. We conclude that both humans and nature reorganizes the soil in order to enhance efficiency.
Inge E. M. de Graaf, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, Tom Gleeson, Nils Moosdorf, Oliver Schmitz, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-121, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study we want to understand groundwater flows at the global scale better. We simulated groundwater storage and fluctuations in confined and unconfined aquifer systems. This is the first study that includes confined systems at the global scale. Confined systems change timing and amplitude of head fluctuations, flow paths, and groundwater-surface water interactions. Hotspots of groundwater depletion are identified and resulted in a global estimate of 6700 km3.
Maria Stergiadi, Marcel van der Perk, Ton C. M. de Nijs, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Biogeosciences, 13, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, 2016
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We modelled the effects of changes in climate and land management on soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels in sandy and loamy soils under forest, grassland, and arable land. Climate change causes a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC slightly increases. A reduction in fertilizer application leads to a decrease in SOC and DOC levels under arable land but has a negligible effect under grassland.
J. C. Rozemeijer, A. Visser, W. Borren, M. Winegram, Y. van der Velde, J. Klein, and H. P. Broers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 347–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-347-2016, 2016
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Controlled drainage has been recognized as an effective option to optimize soil moisture conditions for agriculture and to reduce unnecessary losses of fresh water and nutrients. For a grassland field in the Netherlands, we measured the changes in the field water and solute balance after introducing controlled drainage. We concluded that controlled drainage reduced the drain discharge and increased the groundwater storage in the field, but did not have clear positive effects for water quality.
A. H. W. Beusen, L. P. H. Van Beek, A. F. Bouwman, J. M. Mogollón, and J. J. Middelburg
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4045–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015, 2015
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The IMAGE-Global Nutrient Model (GNM) is used to study the impact of multiple environmental changes on N and P delivery to surface water and transport and in-stream retention in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs over prolonged time periods. N and P are delivered to water bodies via diffuse sources (agriculture and natural ecosystems) and wastewater. N and P retention in a water body is calculated on the basis of the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity.
W. W. Immerzeel, N. Wanders, A. F. Lutz, J. M. Shea, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015
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The water resources of the upper Indus river basin (UIB) are important for millions of people, yet little is known about the rain and snow fall in the high-altitude regions because of the inaccessibility, the climatic complexity and the lack of observations. In this study we use mass balance of glaciers to reconstruct the amount of precipitation in the UIB and we conclude that this amount is much higher than previously thought.
B. R. Voortman, R. P. Bartholomeus, S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee, M. F. P. Bierkens, and J. P. M. Witte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3787-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3787-2015, 2015
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This study explores the magnitude of energy and water fluxes in an inland dune ecosystem in the Netherlands. We parameterized the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model for four different surfaces: bare sand, moss, grass and heather. The knowledge presented in this paper will help improve the simulations of water recharge in sand dunes by hydrological models, and allow the quantification of the cost and benefit of nature conservation in terms of groundwater recharge.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Mao, K. G. J. Nierop, M. Rietkerk, and S. C. Dekker
SOIL, 1, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-411-2015, 2015
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In this study we show how soil water repellency (SWR) is linked to the quantity and quality of SWR markers in soils mainly derived from vegetation. To predict the SWR of topsoils, we find the strongest relationship with ester-bound alcohols, and for subsoils with root-derived ω-hydroxy fatty acids and α,ω-dicarboxylic acids. From this we conclude that, overall, roots influence SWR more strongly than leaves and subsequently SWR markers derived from roots predict SWR better.
A. Lourens, M. F. P. Bierkens, and F. C. van Geer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-4191-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-4191-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present a method to find the most likely properties (layer thickness and conductivity) for each litho-class of the constituting layers of an aquitard, using a readily calibrated groundwater model. The prior litho-class properties are uncertain, and based on borehole data. The groundwater model parameters are assumed to be the truth. The combination of prior data and calibration result yields the most likely litho-class properties. The method is applicable to aquifers as well.
M. Baudena, S. C. Dekker, P. M. van Bodegom, B. Cuesta, S. I. Higgins, V. Lehsten, C. H. Reick, M. Rietkerk, S. Scheiter, Z. Yin, M. A. Zavala, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015
I. E. M. de Graaf, E. H. Sutanudjaja, L. P. H. van Beek, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 823–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015, 2015
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In this paper we present a high-resolution global-scale groundwater model of an upper aquifer. An equilibrium water table at its natural state is constructed. Aquifer parameterization is based on available global datasets on lithology and conductivity combined with estimated aquifer thickness. The results showed groundwater levels are well simulated for many regions of the world. Simulated flow paths showed the relevance of including lateral groundwater flows in global scale hydrological models.
B. van der Grift, J. C. Rozemeijer, J. Griffioen, and Y. van der Velde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4687–4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4687-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4687-2014, 2014
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Exfiltration of anoxic groundwater containing Fe(II) to surface water is an important mechanism controlling P speciation in the lowland catchments. Due to changes in pH and temperature, the Fe(II) oxidation rates were much lower in winter than in summer. This study also shows a fast transformation of dissolved P to structural P during the initial stage of the Fe oxidation process resulting in low dissolved P concentrations in the surface water throughout the year.
J. R. Delsman, K. R. M. Hu-a-ng, P. C. Vos, P. G. B. de Louw, G. H. P. Oude Essink, P. J. Stuyfzand, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3891–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3891-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2925–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, 2014
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 257–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, 2014
N. Wanders, D. Karssenberg, A. de Roo, S. M. de Jong, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2343–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014, 2014
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 821–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, 2014
B. Ringeval, S. Houweling, P. M. van Bodegom, R. Spahni, R. van Beek, F. Joos, and T. Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 11, 1519–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, E. Dutra, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 193–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, 2014
Y. Wada, D. Wisser, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, 2014
A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, 2013
E. Vannametee, D. Karssenberg, M. R. Hendriks, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2981–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2981-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2981-2013, 2013
H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and A. Bouwman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1871–1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, 2013
A. F. Bouwman, M. F. P. Bierkens, J. Griffioen, M. M. Hefting, J. J. Middelburg, H. Middelkoop, and C. P. Slomp
Biogeosciences, 10, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis
Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas
Water resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central Asia
Assessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modeling
Minimizing the impact of vacating instream storage of a multi-reservoir system: a trade-off study of water supply and empty flushing
Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change
Field-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yields
Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River
Multi-level storylines for participatory modeling – involving marginalized communities in Tz'olöj Ya', Mayan Guatemala
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approach
A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins
Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change
Comparative analysis of kernel-based versus ANN and deep learning methods in monthly reference evapotranspiration estimation
Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK
From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment
The value of citizen science for flood risk reduction: cost–benefit analysis of a citizen observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment
Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
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Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
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We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
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The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
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To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Elisabeth Brochet, Sabine Sauvage, Youen Grusson, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-494, 2023
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This study aims at taking into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allows to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low flow periods.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
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This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
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The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
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Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
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Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
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Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
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Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
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Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
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This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
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Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
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Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
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The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
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Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
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Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
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To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
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Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
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We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
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Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
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This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
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As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
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The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
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The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
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Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
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The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
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In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
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Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Kuk-Hyun Ahn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021
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This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, 2021
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The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Jonathan W. Miller, Kimia Karimi, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2789–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, 2021
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Within a watershed, nutrient export can vary greatly over time and space. In this study, we develop a model to leverage over 30 years of streamflow, precipitation, and nutrient sampling data to characterize nitrogen export from various livestock and land use types across a range of precipitation conditions. Modeling results reveal that urban lands developed before 1980 have remarkably high levels of nitrogen export, while agricultural export is most responsive to precipitation.
Chia-Wen Wu, Frederick N.-F. Chou, and Fong-Zuo Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2063–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, 2021
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This paper promotes the feasibility of emptying instream storage through joint operation of multiple reservoirs. The trade-off between water supply and emptying reservoir storage and alleviating impacts on downstream environment are thoroughly discussed. Operation of reservoirs is optimized to calibrate the optimal parameters defining the activation and termination of emptying reservoir. The optimized strategy limits the water shortage and maximizes the expected benefits of emptying reservoir.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
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In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Noemi Vergopolan, Sitian Xiong, Lyndon Estes, Niko Wanders, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Eric F. Wood, Megan Konar, Kelly Caylor, Hylke E. Beck, Nicolas Gatti, Tom Evans, and Justin Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, 2021
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Drought monitoring and yield prediction often rely on coarse-scale hydroclimate data or (infrequent) vegetation indexes that do not always indicate the conditions farmers face in the field. Consequently, decision-making based on these indices can often be disconnected from the farmer reality. Our study focuses on smallholder farming systems in data-sparse developing countries, and it shows how field-scale soil moisture can leverage and improve crop yield prediction and drought impact assessment.
You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1883–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, 2021
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The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
Jessica A. Bou Nassar, Julien J. Malard, Jan F. Adamowski, Marco Ramírez Ramírez, Wietske Medema, and Héctor Tuy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1283–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, 2021
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Our research suggests a method that facilitates the inclusion of marginalized stakeholders in model-building activities to address problems in water resources. Our case study showed that knowledge produced by typically excluded stakeholders had significant and unique contributions to the outcome of the process. Moreover, our method facilitated the identification of relationships between societal, economic, and hydrological factors, and it fostered collaborations across different communities.
Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, 2021
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The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
Manon Cassagnole, Maria-Helena Ramos, Ioanna Zalachori, Guillaume Thirel, Rémy Garçon, Joël Gailhard, and Thomas Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, 2021
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Hongwei Zheng, Chunbo Chen, Olaf Hellwich, Jie Bai, Tie Liu, Shuang Liu, Jie Xue, Peng Cai, Huili He, Friday Uchenna Ochege, Tim Van de Voorde, and Philippe de Maeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 901–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-901-2021, 2021
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Some river basins are considered to be very similar because they have a similar background such as a transboundary, facing threats of human activities. But we still lack understanding of differences under their general similarities. Therefore, we proposed a framework based on a Bayesian network to group watersheds based on similarity levels and compare the causal and systematic differences within the group. We applied it to the Amu and Syr Darya River basin and discussed its universality.
Michel Le Page, Younes Fakir, Lionel Jarlan, Aaron Boone, Brahim Berjamy, Saïd Khabba, and Mehrez Zribi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 637–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-637-2021, 2021
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In the context of major changes, the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with low and continuously decreasing water resources mainly attributed to agricultural use. A method for projecting irrigation water demand under both anthropogenic and climatic changes is proposed. Time series of satellite imagery are used to determine a set of semiempirical equations that can be easily adapted to different future scenarios.
Mohammad Taghi Sattari, Halit Apaydin, Shahab S. Band, Amir Mosavi, and Ramendra Prasad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-603-2021, 2021
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The aim of study is to estimate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) amount with artificial intelligence using minimum meteorological parameters in the Corum region, which is an agricultural center of Turkey. Kernel-based GPR and SVR and BFGS-ANN and LSTM models were used to estimate ET0 amounts in 10 different combinations. The results show that all four methods used predicted ET0 amounts at acceptable accuracy and error levels. The BFGS-ANN model showed higher success than the others.
Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton, and Francesca Pianosi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, 2020
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In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.
Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5891–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020, 2020
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This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
Michele Ferri, Uta Wehn, Linda See, Martina Monego, and Steffen Fritz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5781–5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5781-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5781-2020, 2020
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As part of the flood risk management strategy of the
Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment (Italy), a citizen observatory for flood risk management is currently being implemented. A cost–benefit analysis of the citizen observatory was undertaken to demonstrate the value of this approach in monetary terms. Results show a reduction in avoided damage of 45 % compared to a scenario without implementation of the citizen observatory. The idea is to promote this methodology for future flood risk management.
Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Abel Solera, Jaime Madrigal, Joaquín Andreu, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5297–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020, 2020
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This work responds to the need for an effective methodology that integrates climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making. This general approach is based on a model chain for management and drought risk assessments and applied to the Júcar River basin (Spain), showing a worrying deterioration of the basin's future water resources availability and drought indicators, despite a considerable uncertainty of results from the mid-century onwards.
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Short summary
Our virtual water network of the Roman World shows that virtual water trade and irrigation provided the Romans with resilience to interannual climate variability. Virtual water trade enabled the Romans to meet food demands from regions with a surplus. Irrigation provided stable water supplies for agriculture, particularly in large river catchments. However, virtual water trade also stimulated urbanization and population growth, which eroded Roman resilience to climate variability over time.
Our virtual water network of the Roman World shows that virtual water trade and irrigation...
