Articles | Volume 27, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 13 Nov 2023
| 13 Nov 2023
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Awad M. Ali
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Water Research Center, Faculty of Engineering, University of Khartoum, P.O. Box 321, Khartoum, Republic of the Sudan
Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
No articles found.
Adriaan J. Teuling, Belle Holthuis, and Jasper F. D. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3799–3806, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The understanding of spatio-temporal variability of evapotranspiration (ET) is currently limited by a lack of measurement techniques that are low cost and that can be applied anywhere at any time. Here we show that evapotranspiration can be estimated accurately using observations made by smartphone sensors, suggesting that smartphone-based ET monitoring could provide a realistic and low-cost alternative for real-time ET estimation in the field.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, Gert Jan Hofstede, Meine van Noordwijk, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3495–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study explored the role of serious gaming in strengthening stakeholder engagement in addressing human–water challenges. The gaming approach guided community discussions toward implementable decisions. The results showed increased active participation, knowledge gain, and use of plural pronouns. We observed decreased individual interests and conflicts among game participants. The study presents important implications for creating a collective basis for water resources management.
Devi Purnamasari, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Albrecht H. Weerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1929, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a method to identify irrigated areas by combining hydrology models with satellite temperature data. Our method was tested in the Rhine basin which aligns well with official statistics. It performs best in regions with large farms and less well in areas with small farms. Observed differences with existing data are influenced by data resolution and methods.
Jasper M. C. Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martha M. Vogel, Xin Yu, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heat extremes have severe implications for human health and ecosystems. Heat extremes are mostly introduced by large-scale atmospheric circulation but can be modulated by vegetation. Vegetation with access to water uses solar energy to evaporate water into the atmosphere. Under dry conditions, water may not be available, suppressing evaporation and heating the atmosphere. Using climate projections, we show that regionally less water is available for vegetation, intensifying future heat extremes.
Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre C. Costa, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, and Pieter R. van Oel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4217–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
People induce and modify droughts. However, we do not know exactly how relevant human and natural processes interact nor how to evaluate the co-evolution of people and water. Prospect theory can help us to explain the emergence of drought impacts leading to failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. Our approach helps to explain socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects, and can contribute to integrated drought management considering the local context.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In Northeast Brazil, we assess official data against local experiences, finding data mismatches and blindspots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blindspots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Bettina Schaefli, Ross Woods, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Joshua R. Larsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2577–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a dataset of snow water equivalent, the depth of liquid water that results from melting a given depth of snow. The dataset contains 11 071 sites over the Northern Hemisphere, spans the period 1950–2022, and is based on daily observations of snow depth on the ground and a model. The dataset fills a lack of accessible historical ground snow data, and it can be used for a variety of applications such as the impact of climate change on global and regional snow and water resources.
Luuk D. van der Valk, Adriaan J. Teuling, Luc Girod, Norbert Pirk, Robin Stoffer, and Chiel C. van Heerwaarden
The Cryosphere, 16, 4319–4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most large-scale hydrological and climate models struggle to capture the spatially highly variable wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover. In the field, we find that 60 %–80 % of the total melt is wind driven at the upwind edge of a snow patch, while it does not contribute at the downwind edge. Our idealized simulations show that the variation is due to a patch-size-independent air-temperature reduction over snow patches and also allow us to study the role of wind-driven snowmelt on larger scales.
Alessandro Montemagno, Christophe Hissler, Victor Bense, Adriaan J. Teuling, Johanna Ziebel, and Laurent Pfister
Biogeosciences, 19, 3111–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3111-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the biogeochemical processes that dominate the release and retention of elements (nutrients and potentially toxic elements) during litter degradation. Our results show that toxic elements are retained in the litter, while nutrients are released in solution during the first stages of degradation. This seems linked to the capability of trees to distribute the elements between degradation-resistant and non-degradation-resistant compounds of leaves according to their chemical nature.
Linqi Zhang, Yi Liu, Liliang Ren, Adriaan J. Teuling, Ye Zhu, Linyong Wei, Linyan Zhang, Shanhu Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, and Hang Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, three machine learning methods displayed a good detection capacity of flash droughts. The RF model was recommended to estimate the depletion rate of soil moisture and simulate flash drought by considering the multiple meteorological variable anomalies in the adjacent time to drought onset. The anomalies of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a stronger synergistic but asymmetrical effect on flash droughts compared to slowly developing droughts.
Femke A. Jansen, Remko Uijlenhoet, Cor M. J. Jacobs, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2875–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the controls on open water evaporation with a focus on Lake IJssel, the Netherlands, by analysing eddy covariance observations over two summer periods at two locations at the borders of the lake. Wind speed and the vertical vapour pressure gradient can explain most of the variation in observed evaporation, which is in agreement with Dalton's model. We argue that the distinct characteristics of inland waterbodies need to be taken into account when parameterizing their evaporation.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Peter T. La Follette, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nans Addor, Martyn Clark, Koen Jansen, and Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5425–5446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models are useful tools that allow us to predict distributions and movement of water. A variety of numerical methods are used by these models. We demonstrate which numerical methods yield large errors when subject to extreme precipitation. As the climate is changing such that extreme precipitation is more common, we find that some numerical methods are better suited for use in hydrological models. Also, we find that many current hydrological models use relatively inaccurate methods.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
Lieke Anna Melsen and Björn Guse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Certain hydrological processes become more or less relevant when the climate changes. This should also be visible in the models that are used for long-term predictions of river flow as a consequence of climate change. We investigated this using three different models. The change in relevance should be reflected in how the parameters of the models are determined. In the different models, different processes become more relevant in the future: they disagree with each other.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Jolijn van Engelenburg, Erik van Slobbe, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Petra Hellegers
Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 14, 1–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analysed the impact of extreme weather events, water quality deterioration, and a growing drinking water demand on the sustainability of drinking water supply in the Netherlands. The results of the case studies were compared to sustainability issues for drinking water supply that are experienced worldwide. This resulted in a set of sustainability characteristics describing drinking water supply on a local scale in terms of hydrological, technical, and socio-economic characteristics.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Theresa C. van Hateren, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-583, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Agricultural droughts occur when the water content of the soil diminishes to such a level that vegetation is negatively impacted. Here we show that, although they are classified as the same type of drought, substantial differences between soil moisture and vegetation droughts exist. This duality is not included in the term agricultural drought, and thus is a potential issue in drought research. We argue that a distinction should be made between soil moisture and vegetation drought events.
Joost Buitink, Anne M. Swank, Martine van der Ploeg, Naomi E. Smith, Harm-Jan F. Benninga, Frank van der Bolt, Coleen D. U. Carranza, Gerbrand Koren, Rogier van der Velde, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6021–6031, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6021-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of water stored in the soil is critical for the productivity of plants. Plant productivity is either limited by the available water or by the available energy. In this study, we infer this transition point by comparing local observations of water stored in the soil with satellite observations of vegetation productivity. We show that the transition point is not constant with soil depth, indicating that plants use water from deeper layers when the soil gets drier.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, James W. Kirchner, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6093–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new distributed hydrological model: the distributed simple dynamical systems (dS2) model. The model is built with a focus on computational efficiency and is therefore able to simulate basins at high spatial and temporal resolution at a low computational cost. Despite the simplicity of the model concept, it is able to correctly simulate discharge in both small and mesoscale basins.
Jasper Foets, Carlos E. Wetzel, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jean-François Iffly, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4709–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4709-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Diatoms (microscopic algae) are regarded as useful tracers in catchment hydrology. However, diatom analysis is labour-intensive; therefore, only a limited number of samples can be analysed. To reduce this number, we explored the potential for a time-integrated mass-flux sampler to provide a representative sample of the diatom assemblage for a whole storm run-off event. Our results indicate that the Phillips sampler did indeed sample representative communities during two of the three events.
Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Lieke A. Melsen, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Ying Fan, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4625–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation is a principal component in the Earth system models that are used for weather, climate and other environmental predictions. Water is one of the main drivers of vegetation; however, the global distribution of how water influences vegetation is not well understood. This study looks at spatial patterns of photosynthesis and water sources (rain and groundwater) to obtain a first understanding of water access and limitations for the growth of global forests (proxy for natural vegetation).
Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Kaniska Mallick, Martin Schlerf, Miriam Machwitz, Martin Herold, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Biogeosciences, 17, 4443–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4443-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the link between the vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and the land–atmosphere exchange of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. We show that the correlation between the LAI and water and energy fluxes depends on the vegetation type and aridity. For carbon fluxes, however, the correlation with the LAI was strong and independent of vegetation and aridity. This study provides insight into when the vegetation LAI can be used to model or extrapolate land–atmosphere fluxes.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Femke A. Jansen and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1055-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized the (dis)agreement between six evaporation methods from hourly to decadal timescales, focussing on the IJsselmeer region in the Netherlands. The projected changes in mean yearly water losses through evaporation between the years 2000 and 2100 range from 4 mm to 94 mm among the methods. We therefore stress that the choice of method is of great importance for water managers in their decision making.
Adriaan J. Teuling, Emile A. G. de Badts, Femke A. Jansen, Richard Fuchs, Joost Buitink, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, and Shannon M. Sterling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, changes in land use and climate over Europe have impacted the average flow of water flowing through rivers and reservoirs (the so-called
water yield). We quantify these changes using a simple but widely tested modelling approach constrained by observations of lysimeters across Europe. Results show that the contribution of land use to changes in water yield are of the same order as changes in climate, showing that impacts of land use changes cannot be neglected.
Sven Boese, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 16, 2557–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how limited water availability during droughts affects water-use efficiency. This metric describes how much carbon an ecosystem can assimilate for each unit of water lost by transpiration. We test how well different water-use efficiency models can capture the dynamics of transpiration decrease due to increased soil-water limitation. Accounting for the interacting effects of radiation and water limitation is necessary to accurately predict transpiration during these periods.
Hendrik Wouters, Irina Y. Petrova, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Adriaan J. Teuling, Vicky Meulenberg, Joseph A. Santanello, and Diego G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2139–2153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2139-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The free software CLASS4GL (http://class4gl.eu) is designed to investigate the dynamic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with weather balloons. It mines observational data from global radio soundings, satellite and reanalysis data from the last 40 years to constrain and initialize an ABL model and automizes multiple experiments in parallel. CLASS4GL aims at fostering a better understanding of land–atmosphere feedbacks and the drivers of extreme weather.
Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Kaniska Mallick, Adriaan J. Teuling, Martin Schlerf, Miriam Machwitz, Sibylle K. Hassler, Theresa Blume, and Martin Herold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2077–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2077-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2077-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite images are often used to estimate land water fluxes over a larger area. In this study, we investigate the link between a well-known vegetation index derived from satellite data and sap velocity, in a temperate forest in Luxembourg. We show that the link between the vegetation index and transpiration is not constant. Therefore we suggest that the use of vegetation indices to predict transpiration should be limited to ecosystems and scales where the link has been confirmed.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1593-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1593-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes how the spatial resolution of hydrological models affects the model results. The high-resolution model allowed for more spatial variability than the low-resolution model. As a result, the low-resolution model failed to capture most variability that was simulated with the high-resolution model. This has implications for the interpretation of results carried out at coarse resolutions, as they may fail to represent the local small-scale variability.
Tjitske J. Geertsema, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5599–5613, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5599-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigate the processes and effects of simultaneous flood peaks at a lowland confluence. The flood peaks are analyzed with the relatively new dynamic time warping method, which offers a robust means of tracing flood waves in discharge time series at confluences. The time lag between discharge peaks in the main river and its lowland tributaries is small compared to the wave duration; therefore the exact timing of discharge peaks may be little relevant to flood risk.
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Marit Van Tiel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Niko Wanders, Marc J. P. Vis, Kerstin Stahl, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 463–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are important hydrological reservoirs. Short-term variability in glacier melt and also glacier retreat can cause droughts in streamflow. In this study, we analyse the effect of glacier changes and different drought threshold approaches on future projections of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. We show that these different methodological options result in different drought projections and that these options can be used to study different aspects of streamflow droughts.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-629, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the hydrological response simulated at two different spatial resolutions. The low resolution model was not able to simulate the complex response as was simulated with the high resolution model. The low resolution model underestimated the anomalies when compared with the high resolution model. This has implications on the interpretation of global scale impact studies (low resolution) on local or regional scales (high resolution).
Hidayat Hidayat, Adriaan J. Teuling, Bart Vermeulen, Muh Taufik, Karl Kastner, Tjitske J. Geertsema, Dinja C. C. Bol, Dirk H. Hoekman, Gadis Sri Haryani, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Robert M. Delinom, Roel Dijksma, Gusti Z. Anshari, Nining S. Ningsih, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2579–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2579-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2579-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological prediction is crucial but in tropical lowland it is difficult, considering data scarcity and river system complexity. This study offers a view of the hydrology of two tropical lowlands in Indonesia. Both lowlands exhibit the important role of upstream wetlands in regulating the flow downstream. We expect that this work facilitates a better prediction of fire-prone conditions in these regions.
Guillaume Nord, Brice Boudevillain, Alexis Berne, Flora Branger, Isabelle Braud, Guillaume Dramais, Simon Gérard, Jérôme Le Coz, Cédric Legoût, Gilles Molinié, Joel Van Baelen, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Julien Andrieu, Coralie Aubert, Martin Calianno, Guy Delrieu, Jacopo Grazioli, Sahar Hachani, Ivan Horner, Jessica Huza, Raphaël Le Boursicaud, Timothy H. Raupach, Adriaan J. Teuling, Magdalena Uber, Béatrice Vincendon, and Annette Wijbrans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 221–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A high space–time resolution dataset linking hydrometeorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Ardèche region (France) is presented. This region is subject to precipitating systems of Mediterranean origin, which can result in significant rainfall amount. The data presented cover a period of 4 years (2011–2014) and aim at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
Rohini Kumar, Jude L. Musuuza, Anne F. Van Loon, Adriaan J. Teuling, Roland Barthel, Jurriaan Ten Broek, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In a maiden attempt, we performed a multiscale evaluation of the widely used SPI to characterize local- and regional-scale groundwater (GW) droughts using observations at 2040 groundwater wells in Germany and the Netherlands. From this data-based exploratory analysis, we provide sufficient evidence regarding the inability of the SPI to characterize GW drought events, and stress the need for more GW observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in GW drought monitoring.
Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Naoki Mizukami, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of a land surface model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
C. C. van Heerwaarden and A. J. Teuling
Biogeosciences, 11, 6159–6171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6159-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study disentangles the response of forest and grassland to heatwaves, to interpret the findings of Teuling et al. (2010), who found systematically higher temperatures over forests than over grasslands in European heatwaves. By means of a study with a simple coupled land–atmosphere model, we show that the increase in stomatal resistance of vegetation under high values of vapor pressure deficit explains most of the differences and that this increase is enhanced by boundary layer feedbacks.
C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and R. Uijlenhoet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2313-2014, 2014
C. C. Brauer, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. J. Teuling, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4007–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4007-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4007-2014, 2014
A. I. Gevaert, A. J. Teuling, R. Uijlenhoet, S. B. DeLong, T. E. Huxman, L. A. Pangle, D. D. Breshears, J. Chorover, J. D. Pelletier, S. R. Saleska, X. Zeng, and P. A. Troch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3681–3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3681-2014, 2014
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people’s response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large scale integrated hydrologic simulations
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Assessment of Upscaling Methodologies for Daily Crop Transpiration using Sap-Flows and Two-Source Energy Balance Models in Almonds under Different Water Status and Production Systems
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis
Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas
Water resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central Asia
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing the warnings based on the people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to the people’s tolerance levels of the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase the forecasting accuracy and decrease the forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semi-arid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-965, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model, ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model we hope to be better able to understand both our impacts on the environment, and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the possible impacts of climate change on hydropower generation. In this study, we present a more comprehensive approach to model the management of hydroelectric reservoirs. The total power-grid demand is distributed to the various power plants according to their reservoir states to compute their release. The method is tested on France, and demonstrates that it succeeds in reproducing the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Kuk-Hyun Ahn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Cited articles
Abdel-Aziz, O. R.: Flood forecasting in Blue Nile basin using a process-based hydrological model, Int. J. Environ., 3, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i1.9938, 2014. a
Abd-El Moneim, H., Soliman, M. R., and Moghazy, H. M.: Numerical simulation of Blue Nile Basin using distributed hydrological model, in: 11th international conference on the role of engineering towards a better environment (RETBE'17), 8–20 December 2017, Alexandria, Egypt, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321978918 (last access: 8 November 2023), 2017. a
Abera, W., Formetta, G., Brocca, L., and Rigon, R.: Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3145–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, 2017. a
Adam, H., AW, A., and Hata, T.: The Future of Participatory Water Management in Gezira Scheme, Sudan, in: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Participatory Management of Irrigation Systems, 16–23 March 2003, Kyoto, Osaka, Japan, 18–24, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374762917 (last access: 8 November 2023), 2003. a
Adem, A. A., Dile, Y. T., Worqlul, A. W., Ayana, E. K., Tilahun, S. A., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Assessing digital soil inventories for predicting streamflow in the headwaters of the Blue Nile, Hydrology, 7, 8, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010008, 2020. a
Africa News: Ethiopia dismisses rumours Nile mega-dam will starve Egypt and Sudan, https://www.africanews.com/2022/02/21/ethiopia-dismisses-rumours-nile-mega-dam-will-starve-egypt-and-sudan/ (last access: 2 December 2022), 2022. a
Agegn, G. K.: Climate change impact on stream flow of upper blue nile basin: based on CMIP5 climate model outputs, MS thesis, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia, https://scholar.archive.org/work/2fvrnezlfff6tcxwkjpjosbsua/access/wayback/https://nadre.ethernet.edu.et/record/2724/files/GizachewThesisddddd.pdf (lass access: 10 November 2023), 2016. a
Ahmed, A., Osman, I., and Babiker, A.: Sediment and aquatic weeds management challenges in Gezira irrigated scheme, in: International Sediment Initiative Conference, 12–15 November 2006, Khartoum, Sudan, https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=337559190028257090&hl=en&oi=scholarr (last access: 22 July 2022), 2006. a
Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Huang, S., Tecklenburg, J., Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Krysanova, V., Müller, E. N., and Hattermann, F. F.: Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1305–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014, 2014. a
Akale, A. T., Dagnew, D. C., Moges, M. A., Tilahun, S. A., and Steenhuis, T. S.: The effect of landscape interventions on groundwater flow and surface runoff in a watershed in the upper reaches of the Blue Nile, Water, 11, 2188, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102188, 2019. a
Ali, A. M.: Data underlying the paper “Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited data availability using hydrological modelling and Earth observation: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)”, HydroShare [data set], https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.15d3cf37ad934fe7a1e52f5fb5a56145, 2023. a
Alrajoula, M. T., Al Zayed, I. S., Elagib, N. A., and Hamdi, M. R.: Hydrological, socio-economic and reservoir alterations of Er Roseires Dam in Sudan, Sci. Total Environ., 566, 938–948, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.029, 2016. a
Ashouri, H., Hsu, K.-L., Sorooshian, S., Braithwaite, D. K., Knapp, K. R., Cecil, L. D., Nelson, B. R., and Prat, O. P.: PERSIANN-CDR: Daily precipitation climate data record from multisatellite observations for hydrological and climate studies, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 69–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00068.1, 2015. a
Asitatikie, A. N. and Gebeyehu, W. Z.: Assessment of hydrology and optimal water allocation under changing climate conditions: The case of Megech river sub basin reservoir, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7, 2629–2642, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-01024-0, 2021. a
Basheer, M. and Elagib, N. A.: Performance of satellite-based and GPCC 7.0 rainfall products in an extremely data-scarce country in the Nile Basin, Atmos. Res., 215, 128–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.028, 2019. a
Basheer, M., Wheeler, K. G., Ribbe, L., Majdalawi, M., Abdo, G., and Zagona, E. A.: Quantifying and evaluating the impacts of cooperation in transboundary river basins on the Water-Energy-Food nexus: The Blue Nile Basin, Sci. Total Environ., 630, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.249, 2018. a
Bergström, S.: The HBV model, Computer models of watershed hydrology, 443–476, ISBN 978-09-1833-491-6, 1995. a
Betrie, G. D., Mohamed, Y. A., Ann van Griensven, I., and Mynett, A.: Modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport in the Blue Nile Basin using the Open Model Interface Approach, Improved Water and Land Management in the Ethiopian Highlands: Its Impact on Downstream Stakeholders Dependent on the Blue Nile, p. 132, ISBN 978-92-9090-716-9, 2009. a, b
Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8, 2001. a
Bihonegn, B. G., Moges, M. A., Mulu, G. F., and Sinshaw, B. G.: Evaluation of Stream Flow Prediction Capability of Hydrological Models in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, in: International Conference on Advances of Science and Technology, Springer, 210–227, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_14, 2020. a, b, c
Birkett, C., Reynolds, C., Beckley, B., and Doorn, B.: From research to operations: The USDA global reservoir and lake monitor, in: Coastal altimetry, Springer, 19–50, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12796-0_2, 2011. a
Biswas, A. K.: Management of transboundary waters: an overview, Management of transboundary rivers and lakes, Springer, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-74928-8_1, 2008. a
Bizuneh, B. B., Moges, M. A., Sinshaw, B. G., and Kerebih, M. S.: SWAT and HBV models’ response to streamflow estimation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Water-Energy Nexus, 4, 41–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2021.03.001, 2021. a, b, c
Bonnema, M. and Hossain, F.: Assessing the potential of the surface water and ocean topography mission for reservoir monitoring in the Mekong River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 55, 444–461, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023743, 2019. a
Booij, M. J., Tollenaar, D., van Beek, E., and Kwadijk, J. C.: Simulating impacts of climate change on river discharges in the Nile basin, Phys. Chemi. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 36, 696–709, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.042, 2011. a
Boru, G. F., Gonfa, Z. B., and Diga, G. M.: Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water availability in Anger sub-basin, Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Sustainable Water Resources Management, 5, 1755–1764, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-019-00327-0, 2019. a
Buchhorn, M., Smets, B., Bertels, L., De Roo, B., Lesiv, M., Tsendbazar, N.-E., Herold, M., and Fritz, S.: Copernicus global land service: Land cover 100 m: collection 3: epoch 2019: Globe, Version V3. 0.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3518038, 2020. a
Chakilu, G. and Moges, M.: Assessing the land use/cover dynamics and its impact on the low flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Current Res., 8, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7587.1000268, 2017. a
Chen, Y., Ahmed, M., Tangdamrongsub, N., and Murgulet, D.: Reservoir-Induced Land Deformation: Case Study from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Remote Sensing, 13, 874, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050874, 2021. a
Collick, A. S., Easton, Z. M., Ashagrie, T., Biruk, B., Tilahun, S., Adgo, E., Awulachew, S. B., Zeleke, G., and Steenhuis, T. S.: A simple semi-distributed water balance model for the Ethiopian highlands, Hydrol. Process., 23, 3718–3727, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7517, 2009. a
Conway, D.: The climate and hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River, Geogr. J., 166, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2000.tb00006.x, 2000. a
Deginet, M. D.: Land surface representation for regional rainfall-runoff modelling, upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/librarywww/papers_2008/msc/wrem/moges.pdf (last access: 8 November 2023), 2008. a
De Stefano, L., Petersen-Perlman, J. D., Sproles, E. A., Eynard, J., and Wolf, A. T.: Assessment of transboundary river basins for potential hydro-political tensions, Global Environ. Chang., 45, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.008, 2017. a
Draper, S. E.: Introduction to transboundary water sharing, J. Water Res. Pl., 133, 377–381, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2007)133:5(377), 2007. a
Drusch, M., Bello, U. D., Carlier, S., Colin, O., Fernandez, V., Gascon, F., Hoersch, B., Isola, C., Laberinti, P., Martimort, P., Meygret, A., Spoto, F., Sy, O., Marchese, F., and Bargellini, P.: Sentinel-2: ESA's Optical High-Resolution Mission for GMES Operational Services, Remote Sens. Environ., 120, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.11.026, 2012. a
Dumont, H. J.: The Nile river system, in: The Ecology of River Systems, Springer, 61–88, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3290-1_3, 1986. a
DWD – the German Meteorological Service: Index of /climate_environment/GPCC/full_data_daily_v2020/, DWD [data set], https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/GPCC/full_data_daily_v2020/, (last access: 8 November 2023), 2020. a
Elagib, N. A. and Mansell, M. G.: New approaches for estimating global solar radiation across Sudan, Energ. Convers. Manage., 41, 419–434, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8904(99)00123-5, 2000. a, b
Eldardiry, H. and Hossain, F.: Understanding reservoir operating rules in the transboundary nile river basin using macroscale hydrologic modeling with satellite measurements, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 2253–2269, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0058.1, 2019. a
Enku, T., Tadesse, A., Yilak, D., Gessesse, A., Addisie, M., Abate, M., Zimale, F., Moges, M., Tilahun, S., and Steenhuis, T.: Biohydrology of low flows in the humid Ethiopian highlands: The Gilgel Abay catchment, Biologia, 69, 1502–1509, https://doi.org/10.2478/s11756-014-0462-9, 2014. a
Ezega News: Power Generation Capacity of GERD Slashed to 5150MW – Ethiopian Minister, https://www.ezega.com/News/NewsDetails/7331/Power-Generation-Capacity-of-GERD-Slashed-to-5150MW-Ethiopian-Minister (last access: 4 July 2022), 2019. a
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D.: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005rg000183, 2007. a
Funk, C. C., Peterson, P. J., Landsfeld, M. F., Pedreros, D. H., Verdin, J. P., Rowland, J. D., Romero, B. E., Husak, G. J., Michaelsen, J. C., and Verdin, A. P.: A quasi-global precipitation time series for drought monitoring, US Geological Survey data series, 832, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.3133/ds832, 2014. a
Gao, H., Birkett, C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Global monitoring of large reservoir storage from satellite remote sensing, Water Resour. Res., 48, W09504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012063, 2012. a, b
Gebre, S., Tadele, K., and Mariam, B.: Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources availability of Didessa Catchment, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, J. Geol. Geosci., 4, 193, https://doi.org/10.4172/2329-6755.1000193, 2015. a
Gebre, S. L.: Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation of Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Hydrology, 6, 1, https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7587.1000199, 2015. a
Gebre, S. L. and Ludwig, F.: Hydrological response to climate change of the upper blue Nile River Basin: based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5), Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 3, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000121, 2015. a
Gebrehiwet, K.: Hydro-hegemony, an antiquated notion, in the contemporary Nile River basin: the rise of water utilization in up-stream riparian countries, Heliyon, 6, e04877, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04877, 2020. a
Getachew, B., Manjunatha, B., and Bhat, H. G.: Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, J. Hydrol., 595, 125974, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125974, 2021. a
Getahun, M. M.: Adapting LAPSUS_D model to simulate runoff and sediment yield in Minizr catchment, NW Ethiopia, Sustaining reservoir use through sediment trapping in NW Ethiopia, Wageningen University & Research, p. 87, https://doi.org/10.18174/388775, 2016. a
Ghorab, E., Helal, Y. E., Mahgoub, S., Sobeih, M., and Shalash, A.: Numerical investigations to the effects of the proposed dams on the blue nile basin discharge, ERJ Engineering Research Journal, 36, 69–77, 2013. a
Hengl, T., de Jesus, J. M., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Gonzalez, M. R., Kilibarda, M., Blagotić, A., Shangguan, W., Wright, M. N., Geng, X., Bauer-Marschallinger, B., Guevara, M. A., Vargas, R., MacMillan, R. A., Batjes, N. H., Leenaars, J. G. B., Ribeiro, E., Wheeler, I., Mantel, S., and Kempen, B.: SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning, PLOS ONE, 12, e0169748, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, W., Berrisford, P., Horányi, A., J., M.-S., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., and Dee, D.: Global reanalysis: goodbye ERA-Interim, hello ERA5, ECMWF Newsletter, https://doi.org/10.21957/VF291HEHD7, 2019. a, b, c
Hijmans, R., Garcia, N., and Wieczorek, J.: GADM database of global administrative areas, https://gadm.org/ (last access: 8 November 2023), 2012. a
Hou, J., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Beck, H. E., Renzullo, L. J., and Wada, Y.: Remotely sensed reservoir water storage dynamics (1984–2015) and the influence of climate variability and management at a global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3785–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3785-2022, 2022. a, b
Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H., Blöschl, G., McDonnell, J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H., Hughes, D., Hut, R., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H., Woods, R., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C.: A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) – a review, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 1198–1255, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.803183, 2013. a
Huntington, J. L., Hegewisch, K. C., Daudert, B., Morton, C. G., Abatzoglou, J. T., McEvoy, D. J., and Erickson, T.: Climate engine: Cloud computing and visualization of climate and remote sensing data for advanced natural resource monitoring and process understanding, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 2397–2410, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00324.1, 2017. a
IPoE: International Panel of Experts on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project Final Report, https://www.scidev.net/wp-content/uploads/site_assets/docs/international_panel_of_experts_for_ethiopian_renaissance_dam-_final_report.pdf (last access: 8 November 2023), 2013. a
Jansen, K. F., Teuling, A. J., Craig, J. R., Dal Molin, M., Knoben, W. J., Parajka, J., Vis, M., and Melsen, L. A.: Mimicry of a Conceptual Hydrological Model (HBV): What's in a Name?, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029143, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029143, 2021. a
Kansara, P., Li, W., El-Askary, H., Lakshmi, V., Piechota, T., Struppa, D., and Abdelaty Sayed, M.: An assessment of the filling process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its impact on the downstream countries, Remote Sensing, 13, 711, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711, 2021. a
Kessete, N., Moges, M. A., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Evaluating the applicability and scalability of bias corrected CFSR climate data for hydrological modeling in upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, in: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability, Elsevier, 11–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815998-9.00002-6, 2019. a
Khairy, W., El-Motasem, M., Mehanna, A., and Hefny, K.: Estimation of evaporation losses from water bodies in the Sudan and Ethiopia, International Journal of Energy and Water Resources, 3, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42108-019-00031-x, 2019. a
Kim, U. and Kaluarachchi, J. J.: Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia 1, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 45, 1361–1378, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00369.x, 2009. a
Lakew, H. B.: Investigating the effectiveness of bias correction and merging MSWEP with gauged rainfall for the hydrological simulation of the upper Blue Nile basin, J. Hydrol., 32, 100741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100741, 2020. a
Lakew, H. B. and Moges, S. A.: Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Techniques of Rainfall for Hydrological Applications in a Complex Mountainous Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, in: Nile and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Springer, 461–474, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76437-1_24, 2021. a
Lakew, H. B., Moges, S. A., and Asfaw, D. H.: Hydrological evaluation of satellite and reanalysis precipitation products in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: A case study of Gilgel Abbay, Hydrology, 4, 39, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4030039, 2017. a
Lazin, R., Shen, X., Koukoula, M., and Anagnostou, E.: Evaluation of the hyper-resolution model-derived water cycle components over the upper Blue Nile Basin, J. Hydrol., 590, 125231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125231, 2020. a
Legesse, E. S.: Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships for the Anjeni watershed in the Blue Nile basin, PhD thesis, Citeseer, http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0016-7061(14)00451-0/rf0220 (last access: 8 November 2023), 2009. a
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., and Jarvis, A.: New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 89, 93–94, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008EO100001, 2008. a, b
Lemann, T., Zeleke, G., Amsler, C., Giovanoli, L., Suter, H., and Roth, V.: Modelling the effect of soil and water conservation on discharge and sediment yield in the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Appl. Geogr., 73, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.06.008, 2016. a
Lemann, T., Roth, V., and Zeleke, G.: Impact of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological responses of small-scale catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 62, 270–282, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1217415, 2017. a
Lemann, T., Roth, V., Zeleke, G., Subhatu, A., Kassawmar, T., and Hurni, H.: Spatial and temporal variability in hydrological responses of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Water, 11, 21, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010021, 2018. a
McNamara, I., Baez-Villanueva, O. M., Zomorodian, A., Ayyad, S., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Zaroug, M., Mersha, A., Nauditt, A., Mbuliro, M., Wamala, S., and Ribbe, L.: How well do gridded precipitation and actual evapotranspiration products represent the key water balance components in the Nile Basin?, J. Hydrol., 37, 100884, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100884, 2021. a
Melsen, L. A., Addor, N., Mizukami, N., Newman, A. J., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Clark, M. P., Uijlenhoet, R., and Teuling, A. J.: Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018. a
Mengistu, D., Bewket, W., Dosio, A., and Panitz, H.-J.: Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper blue nile (Abay) river basin, ethiopia, J. Hydrol., 592, 125614, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125614, 2021. a
Meresa, H. and Gatachew, M.: Modeling of hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, Journal of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 6, 252, https://doi.org/10.4172/2165-784X.1000252, 2015. a, b, c
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., and Veith, T. L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, T. ASABE, 50, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153, 2007. a, b, c
NASA Earth Observatory: Record Flooding in Sudan, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147288/record-flooding-in-sudan (last access: 22 July 2022), 2020. a
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970. a
Nigussie, G., Moges, M. A., Moges, M. M., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Assessment of suitable land for surface irrigation in ungauged catchments: Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Water, 11, 1465, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071465, 2019. a, b
NOAA-CPC: The NOAA African Rainfall Climatology (ARC) Version 2 dataset (ARC2), NOAA-CPC [data set], http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/fewsdata/africa/arc2/geotiff/ (last access: 8 November 2023), 2017. a
Nonki, R. M., Lenouo, A., Lennard, C. J., Tshimanga, R. M., and Tchawoua, C.: Comparison between dynamic and static sensitivity analysis approaches for impact assessment of different potential evapotranspiration methods on hydrological models’ performance, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2713–2730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0192.1, 2021. a
Novella, N. S. and Thiaw, W. M.: African rainfall climatology version 2 for famine early warning systems, J. Applied Meteorol. Clim., 52, 588–606, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0238.1, 2013. a
Owusu, C., Snigdha, N. J., Martin, M. T., and Kalyanapu, A. J.: PyGEE-SWToolbox: A Python Jupyter Notebook Toolbox for Interactive Surface Water Mapping and Analysis Using Google Earth Engine, Sustainability, 14, 2557, https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052557, 2022. a, b
Polanco, E. I., Fleifle, A., Ludwig, R., and Disse, M.: Improving SWAT model performance in the upper Blue Nile Basin using meteorological data integration and subcatchment discretization, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4907–4926, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4907-2017, 2017. a
QGIS, D. T.: QGIS Geographic Information System, Open Source Geospatial Foundation, http://qgis.osgeo.org/ (last access: 8 November 2023), 2009. a
Roth, V. and Lemann, T.: Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-921-2016, 2016. a
Salama, A., ElGabry, M., El-Qady, G., and Moussa, H. H.: Evaluation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Lake Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS, Water, 14, 3033, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14193033, 2022. a
Scaramuzza, P. and Barsi, J.: Landsat 7 scan line corrector-off gap-filled product development, in: Proceeding of Pecora, vol. 16, 23–27, https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Landsat 7 scan line corrector-off gap filled product development&publication_year=2005&author=J. Storey&author=P. Scaramuzza&author=G. Schmidt (last access: 8 November 2023), 2005. a
Schmidt, E. and Zemadim, B.: Expanding sustainable land management in Ethiopia: Scenarios for improved agricultural water management in the Blue Nile, Agr. Water Manage., 158, 166–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.05.001, 2015. a
Seibert, J.: HBV light, User’s manual, Uppsala University, Institute of Earth Science, Department of Hydrology, Uppsala, https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=HBV+light&author=Seibert,+J.&publication_year=1996 (last access: 8 November 2023), 1996. a
Seibert, J. and Vis, M. J. P.: Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3315–3325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3315-2012, 2012. a
Setegn, S. G., Srinivasan, R., Melesse, A. M., and Dargahi, B.: SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Process., 24, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7457, 2010. a
Sinshaw, B. G., Moges, M. A., Tilahun, S. A., Dokou, Z., Moges, S., Anagnostou, E., Eshete, D. G., Kindie, A. T., Bekele, E., Asese, M., and Getie, W. A.: Integration of SWAT and Remote Sensing Techniques to Simulate Soil Moisture in Data Scarce Micro-watersheds: A Case of Awramba Micro-watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, in: Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, Springer International Publishing, 294–314, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_20, 2020. a
Stakhiv, E. Z.: Pragmatic approaches for water management under climate change uncertainty 1, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 47, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00589.x, 2011. a
Sterl, S., Fadly, D., Liersch, S., Koch, H., and Thiery, W.: Linking solar and wind power in eastern Africa with operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Nature Energy, 6, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00799-5, 2021. a
Sultana, R., Dhungana, S., and Bhatta, N.: Application of SWAT Model for Estimating Runoff in Upper Nile River Basin, European Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, 2, 20–35, https://doi.org/10.33422/EJEST.2019.09.35, 2019. a
Sutcliffe, J. V. and Parks, Y. P.: The hydrology of the Nile, IAHS Special Publication, 5, http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0048-9697(16)31936-2/rf0445 (last access: 8 November 2023), 1999. a
Tamalew, C. and Kemal, A.: Estimation of Discharge for Ungauged Catchments Using Rainfall-runoff Model in Didessa Sub-basin: the Case of Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, Int. J. Innov. Eng. Res. Technol., 3, 1–11, 2016. a
Tegegne, G., Park, D. K., and Kim, Y.-O.: Comparison of hydrological models for the assessment of water resources in a data-scarce region, the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, J. Hydrol., 14, 49–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.10.002, 2017. a, b, c
Tekleab, S., Mohamed, Y., and Uhlenbrook, S.: Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 61, 32–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2013.04.017, 2013. a
Tekleab, S., Uhlenbrook, S., Savenije, H. H., Mohamed, Y., and Wenninger, J.: Modelling rainfall–runoff processes of the Chemoga and Jedeb meso-scale catchments in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 60, 2029–2046, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1032292, 2015. a
Teklesadik, A. D., Alemayehu, T., Van Griensven, A., Kumar, R., Liersch, S., Eisner, S., Tecklenburg, J., Ewunte, S., and Wang, X.: Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models, Climatic Change, 141, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1913-4, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Teshome, F., Moges, S. A., and Hailu, D.: Evaluation of globally available water resources reanalysis (WRR-1) runoff products for assessment and management water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin: A data scarce major subbasins of the Nile basin, in: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability, Elsevier, 165–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815998-9.00014-2, 2019. a
The National Meteorological Agency: Meteorological Station Information, http://www.ethiomet.gov.et/ (last access: 8 November 2023), 2016. a
Thiemig, V., Rojas, R., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Levizzani, V., and De Roo, A.: Validation of satellite-based precipitation products over sparsely gauged African river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 1760–1783, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-032.1, 2012. a
Uhlenbrook, S., Mohamed, Y., and Gragne, A. S.: Analyzing catchment behavior through catchment modeling in the Gilgel Abay, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2153–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2153-2010, 2010. a, b, c, d
Vu, D. T., Dang, T. D., Galelli, S., and Hossain, F.: Satellite observations reveal 13 years of reservoir filling strategies, operating rules, and hydrological alterations in the Upper Mekong River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2345–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2345-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Wale, A., Rientjes, T., Dost, R., and Gieske, A.: Hydrological Balance of Lake Tana Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, ITC The Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_3, 2008. a
Wamucii, C. N., van Oel, P. R., Ligtenberg, A., Gathenya, J. M., and Teuling, A. J.: Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021. a
Wang, C., Si, J., Li, Z., Zhao, C., Jia, B., Celestin, S., He, X., Zhou, D., Qin, J., and Zhu, X.: Evaluation of three gridded potential evapotranspiration datasets for streamflow simulation in three inland river basins in the arid Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, J. Hydrol., 44, 101234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101234, 2022. a
Wannasin, C., Brauer, C., Uijlenhoet, R., van Verseveld, W., and Weerts, A. H.: Daily flow simulation in Thailand Part I: Testing a distributed hydrological model with seamless parameter maps based on global data, J. Hydrol., 34, 100794, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100794, 2021. a
Warner, J. and Zawahri, N.: Hegemony and asymmetry: Multiple-chessboard games on transboundary rivers, Int. Environ. Agreem.-P., 12, 215–229, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-012-9177-y, 2012. a
Wheeler, K. G., Basheer, M., Mekonnen, Z. T., Eltoum, S. O., Mersha, A., Abdo, G. M., Zagona, E. A., Hall, J. W., and Dadson, S. J.: Cooperative filling approaches for the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam, Water Int., 41, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1177698, 2016. a, b, c
Wheeler, K. G., Hall, J. W., Abdo, G. M., Dadson, S. J., Kasprzyk, J. R., Smith, R., and Zagona, E. A.: Exploring cooperative transboundary river management strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin, Water Resour. Res., 54, 9224–9254, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022149, 2018. a
Woldesenbet, T. A., Elagib, N. A., Ribbe, L., and Heinrich, J.: Hydrological responses to land use/cover changes in the source region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Sci. Total Environ., 575, 724–741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.124, 2017. a
Woldesenbet, T. A., Elagib, N. A., Ribbe, L., and Heinrich, J.: Catchment response to climate and land use changes in the Upper Blue Nile sub-basins, Ethiopia, Sci. Total Environ., 644, 193–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.198, 2018. a
World Population Review: Sudan Population 2022 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs), https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/sudan-population (last access: 4 July 2022), 2022. a
Worqlul, A. W., Yen, H., Collick, A. S., Tilahun, S. A., Langan, S., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Evaluation of CFSR, TMPA 3B42 and ground-based rainfall data as input for hydrological models, in data-scarce regions: The upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Catena, 152, 242–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.01.019, 2017. a, b
Wubneh, M. A., Fikadie, F. T., Worku, T. A., Aman, T. F., and Kifelew, M. S.: Hydrological impacts of climate change in gauged sub-watersheds of Lake Tana sub-basin (Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Megech, and Ribb) watersheds, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-022-00665-6, 2022a. a
Wubneh, M. A., Worku, T. A., Fikadie, F. T., Aman, T. F., and Kifelew, M. S.: Climate change impact on Lake Tana water storage, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Geocarto International, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2022.2032397, 2022b. a
Yang, G. and Block, P.: Water sharing policies conditioned on hydrologic variability to inform reservoir operations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3617–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3617-2021, 2021. a
Zelelew, D. G. and Melesse, A. M.: Applicability of a spatially semi-distributed hydrological model for watershed scale runoff estimation in Northwest Ethiopia, Water, 10, 923, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070923, 2018. a
Zhang, S., Gao, H., and Naz, B. S.: Monitoring reservoir storage in South Asia from multisatellite remote sensing, Water Resour. Res., 50, 8927–8943, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015829, 2014. a
Ziese, M., Rauthe-Schöch, A., Becker, A., Finger, P., Rustemeier, E., and Schneider, U.: GPCC Full Data Daily Version 2020 at 1.0°: Daily land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data, DWD [data set], https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_D_V2020_100, 2020. a
Zimale, F. A., Mogus, M. A., Alemu, M. L., Ayana, E. K., Demissie, S. S., Tilahun, S. A., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Calculating the sediment budget of a tropical lake in the Blue Nile basin: Lake Tana, SOIL Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2015-84, 2016. a
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful...
