Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, 2022

Special issue: Frontiers in the application of Bayesian approaches in water...

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, 2022
Research article
25 Apr 2022
Research article | 25 Apr 2022

Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie

Timothy J. Maguire et al.

Related subject area

Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Cited articles

Auger-Méthé, M., Newman, K., Cole, D., Empacher, F., Gryba, R., King, A. A., Leos-Barajas, V., Mills Flemming, J., Nielsen, A., and Petris, G.: A guide to state–space modeling of ecological time series, Ecol. Monogr., 91, e01470,, 2021. 
Bolsenga, S. J. and Herdendorf, C. E.: Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair Handbook, Wayne State University Press, ISBN 0-8143-2470-3, 1993. 
Brooks, B. W., Lazorchak, J. M., Howard, M. D. A., Johnson, M. V, Morton, S. L., Perkins, D. A. K., Reavie, E. D., Scott, G. I., Smith, S. A., and Steevens, J. A.: Are harmful algal blooms becoming the greatest inland water quality threat to public health and aquatic ecosystems?, Environ. Toxicol. Chem., 35, 6–13, 2016. 
Buckland, S. T., Newman, K. B., Thomas, L., and Koesters, N. B.: State-space models for the dynamics of wild animal populations, Ecol. Model., 171, 157–175, 2004. 
Durbin, J. and Koopman, S. J.: Time series analysis by state space methods, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-1996-4117-X, 2012. 
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.