Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1671-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1671-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Groundwater level forecasting with artificial neural networks: a comparison of long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and non-linear autoregressive networks with exogenous input (NARX)
Hydrogeology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Applied Geosciences, Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Tanja Liesch
Hydrogeology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Applied Geosciences, Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Stefan Broda
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Wilhelmstr. 25–30, 13593 Berlin, Germany
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Raoul A. Collenteur, Ezra Haaf, Mark Bakker, Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Jenny Soonthornrangsan, Jeremy White, Nick Martin, Rui Hugman, Ed de Sousa, Didier Vanden Berghe, Xinyang Fan, Tim J. Peterson, Jānis Bikše, Antoine Di Ciacca, Xinyue Wang, Yang Zheng, Maximilian Nölscher, Julian Koch, Raphael Schneider, Nikolas Benavides Höglund, Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Abel Henriot, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Max Gustav Rudolph, Amir Rouhani, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Seifeddine Jomaa, Anna Pölz, Tim Franken, Morteza Behbooei, Jimmy Lin, and Rojin Meysami
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We show the results of the 2022 Groundwater Time Series Modelling Challenge; 15 teams applied data-driven models to simulate hydraulic heads, and three model groups were identified: lumped, machine learning, and deep learning. For all wells, reasonable performance was obtained by at least one team from each group. There was not one team that performed best for all wells. In conclusion, the challenge was a successful initiative to compare different models and learn from each other.
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Seasons have a strong influence on groundwater levels, but relationships are complex and partly unknown. Using data from wells in Germany and an explainable machine learning approach, we showed that summer precipitation is the key factor that controls the severeness of a low-water period in fall; high summer temperatures do not per se cause stronger decreases. Preceding winters have only a minor influence on such low-water periods in general.
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The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Guillaume Cinkus, Andreas Wunsch, Naomi Mazzilli, Tanja Liesch, Zhao Chen, Nataša Ravbar, Joanna Doummar, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Juan Antonio Barberá, Bartolomé Andreo, Nico Goldscheider, and Hervé Jourde
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Numerous modelling approaches can be used for studying karst water resources, which can make it difficult for a stakeholder or researcher to choose the appropriate method. We conduct a comparison of two widely used karst modelling approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs) and reservoir models. Results show that ANN models are very flexible and seem great for reproducing high flows. Reservoir models can work with relatively short time series and seem to accurately reproduce low flows.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4033–4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4033-2022, 2022
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We present a data-driven approach to select optimal locations for groundwater monitoring wells. The applied approach can optimize the number of wells and their location for a network reduction (by ranking wells in order of their information content and reducing redundant) and extension (finding sites with great information gain) or both. It allows us to include a cost function to account for more/less suitable areas for new wells and can help to obtain maximum information content for a budget.
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Modeling complex karst water resources is difficult enough, but often there are no or too few climate stations available within or close to the catchment to deliver input data for modeling purposes. We apply image recognition algorithms to time-distributed, spatially gridded meteorological data to simulate karst spring discharge. Our models can also learn the approximate catchment location of a spring independently.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3539, 2025
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With the growing use of machine learning for groundwater level (GWL) prediction, proper performance estimation is crucial. This study compares three validation strategies—blocked cross-validation (bl-CV), repeated out-of-sample (repOOS), and out-of-sample (OOS)—for 1D-CNN models using meteorological inputs. Results show that bl-CV offers the most reliable performance estimates, while OOS is the most uncertain, highlighting the need for careful method selection.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-321, 2025
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Stefan Kunz, Alexander Schulz, Maria Wetzel, Maximilian Nölscher, Teodor Chiaburu, Felix Biessmann, and Stefan Broda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3405–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3405-2025, 2025
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Accurate groundwater level predictions are crucial for sustainable management. This study applies two machine learning models – Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS) and the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) – to forecast seasonal groundwater levels for 5288 wells across Germany. N-HiTS outperformed TFT, with both models performing well in diverse hydrogeological settings, particularly in lowlands with distinct seasonal dynamics.
Raoul A. Collenteur, Ezra Haaf, Mark Bakker, Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Jenny Soonthornrangsan, Jeremy White, Nick Martin, Rui Hugman, Ed de Sousa, Didier Vanden Berghe, Xinyang Fan, Tim J. Peterson, Jānis Bikše, Antoine Di Ciacca, Xinyue Wang, Yang Zheng, Maximilian Nölscher, Julian Koch, Raphael Schneider, Nikolas Benavides Höglund, Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Abel Henriot, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Max Gustav Rudolph, Amir Rouhani, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Seifeddine Jomaa, Anna Pölz, Tim Franken, Morteza Behbooei, Jimmy Lin, and Rojin Meysami
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5193–5208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024, 2024
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We show the results of the 2022 Groundwater Time Series Modelling Challenge; 15 teams applied data-driven models to simulate hydraulic heads, and three model groups were identified: lumped, machine learning, and deep learning. For all wells, reasonable performance was obtained by at least one team from each group. There was not one team that performed best for all wells. In conclusion, the challenge was a successful initiative to compare different models and learn from each other.
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Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2167–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2167-2024, 2024
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Seasons have a strong influence on groundwater levels, but relationships are complex and partly unknown. Using data from wells in Germany and an explainable machine learning approach, we showed that summer precipitation is the key factor that controls the severeness of a low-water period in fall; high summer temperatures do not per se cause stronger decreases. Preceding winters have only a minor influence on such low-water periods in general.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 525–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-525-2024, 2024
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We build a neural network to predict groundwater levels from monitoring wells. We predict all wells at the same time, by learning the differences between wells with static features, making it an entity-aware global model. This works, but we also test different static features and find that the model does not use them to learn exactly how the wells are different, but only to uniquely identify them. As this model class is not actually entity aware, we suggest further steps to make it so.
Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2397–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Guillaume Cinkus, Andreas Wunsch, Naomi Mazzilli, Tanja Liesch, Zhao Chen, Nataša Ravbar, Joanna Doummar, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Juan Antonio Barberá, Bartolomé Andreo, Nico Goldscheider, and Hervé Jourde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1961–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous modelling approaches can be used for studying karst water resources, which can make it difficult for a stakeholder or researcher to choose the appropriate method. We conduct a comparison of two widely used karst modelling approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs) and reservoir models. Results show that ANN models are very flexible and seem great for reproducing high flows. Reservoir models can work with relatively short time series and seem to accurately reproduce low flows.
Marc Ohmer, Tanja Liesch, and Andreas Wunsch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4033–4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4033-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a data-driven approach to select optimal locations for groundwater monitoring wells. The applied approach can optimize the number of wells and their location for a network reduction (by ranking wells in order of their information content and reducing redundant) and extension (finding sites with great information gain) or both. It allows us to include a cost function to account for more/less suitable areas for new wells and can help to obtain maximum information content for a budget.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Guillaume Cinkus, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2405–2430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling complex karst water resources is difficult enough, but often there are no or too few climate stations available within or close to the catchment to deliver input data for modeling purposes. We apply image recognition algorithms to time-distributed, spatially gridded meteorological data to simulate karst spring discharge. Our models can also learn the approximate catchment location of a spring independently.
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