Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 May 2020
Research article |
| 18 May 2020
| 18 May 2020
Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
Benjamin M. Kraemer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ecosystem Research Department, IGB Leibniz Institute of Freshwater
Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Anton Seimon
Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University,
Boone, NC, USA
Rita Adrian
Ecosystem Research Department, IGB Leibniz Institute of Freshwater
Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
Peter B. McIntyre
Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Related authors
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States
Effects of High-Quality Elevation Data and Explanatory Variables on the Accuracy of Flood Inundation Mapping via Height Above Nearest Drainage
Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes
Exploring tracer information in a small stream to improve parameter identifiability and enhance the process interpretation in transient storage models
How do inorganic nitrogen processing pathways change quantitatively at daily, seasonal, and multiannual scales in a large agricultural stream?
Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network
Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models
Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management
Evaluation and interpretation of convolutional long short-term memory networks for regional hydrological modelling
Synthesizing the impacts of baseflow contribution on concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships across Australia using a Bayesian hierarchical model
Calibrating 1D hydrodynamic river models in the absence of cross-section geometry using satellite observations of water surface elevation and river width
A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)
Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting
Quantifying floodwater impacts on a lake water budget via volume-dependent transient stable isotope mass balance
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction
Bathymetry and latitude modify lake warming under ice
Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years
Reservoir evaporation in a Mediterranean climate: comparing direct methods in Alqueva Reservoir, Portugal
Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming
Anthropogenic influence on the Rhine water temperatures
A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Assessment of the geomorphic effectiveness of controlled floods in a braided river using a reduced-complexity numerical model
Modeling inorganic carbon dynamics in the Seine River continuum in France
A data-based predictive model for spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality
Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
Improving lake mixing process simulations in the Community Land Model by using K profile parameterization
Upgraded global mapping information for earth system modelling: an application to surface water depth at the ECMWF
Sediment transport modelling in riverine environments: on the importance of grain-size distribution, sediment density, and suspended sediment concentrations at the upstream boundary
Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization
Lidar-based approaches for estimating solar insolation in heavily forested streams
Numerical study on the response of the largest lake in China to climate change
Unraveling the hydrological budget of isolated and seasonally contrasted subtropical lakes
Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
Conservative finite-volume forms of the Saint-Venant equations for hydrology and urban drainage
Modelling Lake Titicaca's daily and monthly evaporation
Principal components of thermal regimes in mountain river networks
Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis
Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 2: Future projections
Breeze effects at a large artificial lake: summer case study
Impacts of changing hydrology on permanent gully growth: experimental results
Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks
Passive acoustic measurement of bedload grain size distribution using self-generated noise
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Fernando Aristizabal, Taher Chegini, Gregory Petrochenkov, Fernando Renzo Salas, and Jasmeet Judge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1205, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are significant natural disaster affecting people and property. This study uses a simplified terrain index and the latest LiDAR-derived digital elevation maps (DEMs) to investigate flood inundation extent quality. We examined inundation quality influenced by different spatial resolutions and by other variables. Results showed LiDAR DEMs enhance inundation quality, but their resolution is less impactful in our context. Further studies on reservoirs and urban flooding are motivated.
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Olivia Desgué-Itier, Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Orlane Anneville, Damien Bouffard, Vincent Chanudet, Pierre Alain Danis, Isabelle Domaizon, Jean Guillard, Théo Mazure, Najwa Sharaf, Frédéric Soulignac, Viet Tran-Khac, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Jean-Philippe Jenny
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Jingshui Huang, Dietrich Borchardt, and Michael Rode
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5817–5833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we set up a water quality model using a 5-year paired high-frequency water quality dataset from a large agricultural stream. The simulations were compared with the 15 min interval measurements and showed very good fits. Based on these, we quantified the N uptake pathway rates and efficiencies at daily, seasonal, and yearly scales. This study offers an overarching understanding of N processing in large agricultural streams across different temporal scales.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Sigrid Haande, James E. Sample, and S. Jannicke Moe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3103–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk in a nutrient-impacted lake in southern Norway. Bayesian networks are powerful tools for environmental modelling but are almost exclusively discrete. We demonstrate that a continuous GBN is a promising alternative approach. Predictive performance of the GBN was similar or improved compared to a discrete network, and it was substantially less time-consuming and subjective to develop.
Timothy J. Maguire, Craig A. Stow, and Casey M. Godwin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 903–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of sedimentation in the lowest parts of polders (beels) through controlled flooding with dike breach (tidal river management – TRM) to counterbalance relative sea level rise (RSLR) in 234 beels of SW Bangladesh is determined in this study, using 2D models and multiple regression. Lower beels located closer to the sea have the highest potential. Operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface of most beels by more than 3 times the yearly RSLR.
Sam Anderson and Valentina Radić
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 795–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and interpret a spatiotemporal deep learning model for regional streamflow prediction at more than 200 stream gauge stations in western Canada. We find the novel modelling style to work very well for daily streamflow prediction. Importantly, we interpret model learning to show that it has learned to focus on physically interpretable and physically relevant information, which is a highly desirable quality of machine-learning-based hydrological models.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Liguang Jiang, Silja Westphal Christensen, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6359–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
River roughness and geometry are essential to hydraulic river models. However, measurements of these quantities are not available in most rivers globally. Nevertheless, simultaneous calibration of channel geometric parameters and roughness is difficult as they compensate for each other. This study introduces an alternative approach of parameterization and calibration that reduces parameter correlations by combining cross-section geometry and roughness into a conveyance parameter.
Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Javad Sadri, and Ali Nazemi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5193–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow regimes are changing globally particularly in cold regions. We develop a novel algorithm for detecting shifting streamflow regimes using changes in first and second moments of ensemble streamflow features. This algorithm is generic and can be used globally. To showcase its application, we assess alterations in Canadian natural streams from 1966 to 2010 to provide the first temporally consistent, pan-Canadian assessment of change in natural streamflow regimes, coast to coast to coast.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Janie Masse-Dufresne, Florent Barbecot, Paul Baudron, and John Gibson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3731–3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A volume-dependent transient isotopic mass balance model was developed for an artificial lake in Canada, in a context where direct measurements of surface water fluxes are difficult. It revealed that floodwater inputs affected the dynamics of the lake in spring but also significantly influenced the long-term water balance due to temporary subsurface storage of floodwater. Such models are paramount for understanding the vulnerability of lakes to changes in groundwater quantity and quality.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Moritz Feigl, Katharina Lebiedzinski, Mathew Herrnegger, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed machine learning approaches for daily river water temperature prediction, using different data preprocessing methods, six model types, a range of different data inputs and 10 study catchments. By comparing to current state-of-the-art models, we could show a significant improvement of prediction performance of the tested approaches. Furthermore, we could gain insight into the relationships between model types, input data and predicted stream water temperature.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Alex Zavarsky and Lars Duester
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5027–5041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River water temperature is an important parameter for water quality and an important variable for physical, chemical and biological processes. River water is also used as a cooling agent by power plants and production facilities. We study long-term trends in river water temperature and correlate them to meteorological influences and power production or economic indices.
Cheng-Wei Yu, Ben R. Hodges, and Frank Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of bottom slope discontinuity on the stability of numerical solutions for the Saint-Venant equations. A new reference slope concept is proposed to ensure smooth source terms and eliminate potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-sectional flow area and the piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Luca Ziliani, Nicola Surian, Gianluca Botter, and Luca Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although geomorphic recovery is a key issue in many rivers worldwide, controlled floods have been rarely designed using geomorphological criteria. An integrated approach is used to assess the effects of different controlled-flood scenarios in a strongly regulated river. None of the controlled-flood strategies provide significant morphological benefits. Nevertheless, this study represents a significant contribution for the management and restoration of highly disturbed rivers.
Audrey Marescaux, Vincent Thieu, Nathalie Gypens, Marie Silvestre, and Josette Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2379–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers have been recognized as an active part of the carbon cycle where transformations are associated with CO2 outgassing. To understand it, we propose a modeling approach with the biogeochemical model, pyNuts-Riverstrahler. We implemented it on the human-impacted Seine River. Sources of carbon to the river were characterized by field measurements in groundwater and in wastewater. Outgassing was the most important in streams, and peaks were simulated downstream of wastewater treatment effluent.
Danlu Guo, Anna Lintern, J. Angus Webb, Dongryeol Ryu, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, and Andrew William Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream water quality across Victoria, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which identified the key controls of water quality variations from long-term records. These models are helpful to identify likely future changes in water quality and, in turn, provide critical information for developing management strategies to improve stream water quality.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Qunhui Zhang, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang, Phaedra Budy, Nick Barrett, and Sarah E. Null
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4969–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We improved lake mixing process simulations by applying a vertical mixing scheme, K profile parameterization (KPP), in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The current vertical mixing scheme in CLM requires an arbitrarily enlarged eddy diffusivity to enhance water mixing. The coupled CLM-KPP considers a boundary layer for eddy development. The improved lake model provides an important tool for lake hydrology and ecosystem studies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Jérémy Lepesqueur, Renaud Hostache, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Emmanuelle Montargès-Pelletier, and Christophe Hissler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article evaluates the influence of sediment representation in a sediment transport model. A short-term simulation is used to assess how far changing the sediment characteristics in the modelling experiment changes riverbed evolution and sediment redistribution during a small flood event. The study shows in particular that representing sediment with extended grain-size and grain-density distributions allows for improving model accuracy and performances.
Annie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, and Sandhya Patidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ecological impact of changes in river flow may be explored through the simulation of ecologically relevant flow indicators. Traditional approaches to model parameterization are not well-suited for this. To this end, this paper considers the ability of a
modified covariance approach, applied to five hydrologically diverse catchments. An overall improvement in consistency is observed, whilst timing and rate of change represent the best and worst replicated indicators respectively.
Jeffrey J. Richardson, Christian E. Torgersen, and L. Monika Moskal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2813–2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High stream temperatures can be detrimental to the survival of aquatic species such as endangered salmon. Stream temperatures can be reduced by shade provided by trees in riparian areas. Two lidar-based methods were effective at assessing stream shading. These methods can be used in place of expensive field measurements.
Dongsheng Su, Xiuqing Hu, Lijuan Wen, Shihua Lyu, Xiaoqing Gao, Lin Zhao, Zhaoguo Li, Juan Du, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2093–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, freshwater lake model simulation results, verified by satellite and buoy observation data, were used to quantify recent climate change effects on the thermal regime of the largest lake in China. Results indicate that the FLake model can reproduce the lake thermal pattern nicely. The lake surface is warming, while the lake bottom has no significant trend. Climate change also caused an earlier ice-off and later ice-on, leading to an obvious change in the energy balance of the lake.
Chloé Poulin, Bruno Hamelin, Christine Vallet-Coulomb, Guinbe Amngar, Bichara Loukman, Jean-François Cretaux, Jean-Claude Doumnang, Abdallah Mahamat Nour, Guillemette Menot, Florence Sylvestre, and Pierre Deschamps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1705–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the water budget of two intertropical lake systems in the absence of long-term hydrological monitoring. By coupling dry season isotopic data with satellite imagery, we were able to provide quantitative constrains on the hydrological balance and show that these two lake systems can be considered miniature analogs of Lake Chad, making them important targets in the future setup of any large-scale program on the hydro-climatic evolution in the Sahel region.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Ben R. Hodges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new derivation of the equations for one-dimensional open-channel flow in rivers and storm drainage systems has been developed. The new approach solves some long-standing problems for obtaining well-behaved solutions with conservation forms of the equations. This research was motivated by the need for highly accurate models of large-scale river networks and the storm drainage systems in megacities. Such models are difficult to create with existing equation forms.
Ramiro Pillco Zolá, Lars Bengtsson, Ronny Berndtsson, Belen Martí-Cardona, Frederic Satgé, Franck Timouk, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Luis Mollericon, Cesar Gamarra, and José Pasapera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 657–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The evaporation was computed at a daily time step and compared with the estimated evaporation using mean monthly meteorological observations. We found that the most reliable method of determining the annual lake evaporation is using the heat balance approach.
Daniel J. Isaak, Charles H. Luce, Gwynne L. Chandler, Dona L. Horan, and Sherry P. Wollrab
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6225–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Description of thermal regimes in flowing waters is key to understanding physical processes and improving bioassessments, but has been limited by sparse data sets. Using a large annual temperature data set from a mountainous area of the western U.S., we explored thermal regimes using principle component analysis. A small number of summary metrics adequately represented most of the variation in this data set given strong temporal coherence among sites.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Maksim Iakunin, Rui Salgado, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5191–5210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs can affect local weather regimes but usually it is difficult to trace and assess it. In this work we used the Meso-NH atmospheric model to study the impact of the Alqueva reservoir, one of the largest artificial lakes in western Europe, located in the southeast of Portugal, on meteorological parameters and the formation of a lake breeze system. The magnitude of this impact as well as the intensity of the breeze are shown in the paper.
Stephanie S. Day, Karen B. Gran, and Chris Paola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3261–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3261-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Permanent gullies are deep steep-sided channels that erode as water falls over the upstream end. Erosion of these features is a concern where people and climate change have altered how water moves over the land. This paper analyzes a set of experiments that were used to determine how changing gully flows impact erosion. We found that while increasing the volume of water will increase erosion, changing the flow rate into gullies will not impact the total erosion, but will alter gully shape.
Aurélien Beaufort, Nicolas Lamouroux, Hervé Pella, Thibault Datry, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3033–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Streams which may stop flowing are poorly gauged. To improve their characterisation, we use an extended network providing monthly visual observations stating whether streams are flowing or not across France. These observations are combined with discharge and groundwater level in models to predict daily regional probability of drying. This approach allows identification of the most impacted regions by flow intermittence and estimation of the probability of drying dynamics over the last 27 years.
Teodor Petrut, Thomas Geay, Cédric Gervaise, Philippe Belleudy, and Sebastien Zanker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 767–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-767-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our interest is focused on developing the hydrophone technique to estimate the size of particles transported in rivers. The analytic spectral solution of the impact between rigid particles is used to model the power spectrum of a sediment mixture, or the sediment-generated noise. Estimations of grain size distributions in the Isère River using real measured spectra are successfully validated by the physical sampling techniques. Moreover, the grain size sorting process is revealed by acoustics.
Cited articles
Aladin, N. V., Plotnikov, I. S., Micklin, P., and Ballatore, T.: Natural
Resources and Environmental Issues Aral Sea: Water level, salinity and
long-term changes in biological communities of an endangered ecosystem-past,
present and future, Nat. Resour. Env. Iss., 15, 177–183,
2009.
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and
the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092,
2002.
Benson, L., Linsley, B., Smoot, J., Mensing, S., Lund, S., Stine, S., and
Sarna-Wojcicki, A.: Influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on the
climate of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada, Quaternary Res., 59,
151–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0033-5894(03)00007-3, 2003.
Benson, L. V., Lund, S. P., Burdett, J. W., Kashgarian, M., Rose, T. P.,
Smoot, J. P., and Schwartz, M.: Correlation of Late-Pleistocene Lake-Level
Oscillations in Mono Lake, California, with North Atlantic Climate Events,
Quaternary Res., 49, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1997.1940, 1998.
Bintanja, R. and Selten, F. M.: Future increases in Arctic precipitation
linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat, Nature, 509,
479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13259, 2014.
Birkett C., Reynolds C., Beckley B., and Doorn B.: From Research to Operations: The USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor, in: Vignudelli S., Kostianoy A., Cipollini P., and Benveniste, J., Coastal Altimetry, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2011.
Birkett, C. M. C.: The contribution of TOPEX/POSEIDON to the global
monitoring of climatically sensitive lakes, J. Geophys. Res., 100,
25179–25204, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JC02125, 1995.
Block, P. and Strzepek, K.: Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs
Under a Changing Climate, Rev. Dev. Econ., 16, 476–488,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00675.x, 2012.
Byrne, M. P., O'Gorman, P. A., and O'Gorman, P. A.: The response of
precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: Why the
“Wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” scaling does not hold over land, J. Climate,
28, 8078–8092, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0369.1, 2015.
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S. W., An, S. Il, Cobb, K. M., Collins,
M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F. F., Kug, J. S., Lengaigne, M., Mcphaden, M. J.,
Takahashi, K., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., Watanabe, M., and Wu, L.: ENSO and
greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Chang., 5, 849–859,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2743, 2015.
Cane, M. A.: The evolution of El Niño, past and future, Earth Planet.
Sc. Lett., 230, 227–240, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.12.003, 2005.
Capotondi, A. and Sardeshmukh, P. D.: Is El Niño really changing?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8548–8556, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074515, 2017.
Chadwick, R., Boutle, I., and Martin, G.: Spatial patterns of precipitation
change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics, J. Climate,
26, 3803–3822, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1, 2013.
Chanut, J. P., D'astous, D., and El-Sabh, M. I.: Modelling the Natural and
Anthropogenic Variations of the St. Lawrence Water Level, in Natural and
Man-Made Hazards, 377–394, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 1988.
Chen, Y., Morton, D. C., Andela, N., Giglio, L., and Randerson, J. T.: How
much global burned area can be forecast on seasonal time scales using sea
surface temperatures?, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 045001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045001, 2016.
Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer,
R. N.: The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of
the Colorado River Basin, Clim. Change, 62, 337–363,
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013684.13621.1f, 2004.
Clites, A. H., Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., and Gronewold, A. D.: Visualizing
relationships between hydrology, climate, and water level fluctuations on
Earth's largest system of lakes, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 807–811,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.05.014, 2014.
Cohn, B. P. and Robinson, J. E.: Cyclic fluctuations of water levels in Lake
Ontario, Comput. Geosci., 1, 105–108,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0098-3004(75)90010-2, 1975.
Collins, M.: Understanding uncertainties in the response of ENSO to
greenhouse warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3509–3512,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011747, 2000.
Corti, S., Molteni, F., Palmer, T. N., Corti, S., and Molteni, F.: Signature
of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation
regimes, Nature, 398, 799–802, https://doi.org/10.1038/19745, 1999.
Crétaux, J.-F. and Birkett, C.: Lake studies from satellite
radar altimetry, Comptes Rendus – Geosci., 338, 1098–1112,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2006.08.002, 2006.
Crétaux, J.-F., Abarca-del-Río, R., Bergé-Nguyen, M., Arsen,
A., Drolon, V., Clos, G., and Maisongrande, P.: Lake Volume Monitoring from
Space, Surv. Geophys., 37, 269–305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9362-6, 2016.
Dai, A. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1283–1286, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011140, 2000.
Dommenget, D. and Latif, M.: Generation of hyper climate modes, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 35, L02706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031087, 2008.
Dorigo, W., de Jeu, R., Chung, D., Parinussa, R., Liu, Y., Wagner, W., and
Fernández-Prieto, D.: Evaluating global trends (1988–2010) in harmonized
multi-satellite surface soil moisture, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18405,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052988, 2012.
Elith, J., Leathwick, J., and Hastie, T.: A working guide to boosted
regression trees, J. Anim. Ecol., 77, 802–813, 2008.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: AQUASTAT,
available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm
(last access: 11 July 2018), 2016.
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., and Tebaldi, C.: Linking climate change
modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for
hydrological modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547–1578,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1556, 2007.
Ghanbari, R. N. and Bravo, H. R.: Coherence between atmospheric
teleconnections, Great Lakes water levels, and regional climate, Adv. Water
Resour., 31, 1284–1298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.05.002, 2008.
Gimeno, L., Nieto, R., VÃ!`zquez, M., and Lavers, D. A.: Atmospheric
rivers: a mini-review, Front. Earth Sci., 2, 2, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00002,
2014.
Greve, P. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Assessment of future changes in water
availability and aridity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5493–5499,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064127, 2015.
Greve, P., Orlowsky, B., Mueller, B., Sheffield, J., Reichstein, M., and
Seneviratne, S. I.: Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over
land, Nat. Geosci., 7, 716–721, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2247, 2014.
Gronewold, A. D., Fortin, V., Lofgren, B., Clites, A., Stow, C. A., and
Quinn, F.: Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes
perspective, Clim. Change, 120, 697–711, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0840-2,
2013.
Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A., Collins, M., Wang, C.,
Capotondi, A., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Stockdale, T.: Understanding El
Niño in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: Progress and
challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 325–340,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1, 2009.
Gyau-Boakye, P.: Environmental impacts of the Akosombo dam and effects of
climate change on the lake levels, Environ. Dev. Sustain., 3, 17–29,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011402116047, 2001.
Hannachi, A., Unkel, S., Trendafilov, N. T., and Jolliffe, I. T.: Independent
component analysis of climate data: A new look at EOF rotation, J. Climate,
22, 2797–2812, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2571.1, 2009.
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature
change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010.
Hansen, J. W., Hodges, A. W., and Jones, J. W.: ENSO influences on
agriculture in the southeastern United States, J. Climate, 11, 404–411,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0404:EIOAIT>2.0.CO;2,
1998.
Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., and Hassanzadeh, Y.: Determining the Main
Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling,
Water Resour. Manag., 26, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9909-8, 2012.
Hegerl, G. C., Black, E., Allan, R. P., Ingram, W. J., Polson, D.,
Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker,
A., Dai, A., Durack, P. J., Easterling, D., Fowler, H. J., Kendon, E. J.,
Huffman, G. J., Liu, C., Marsh, R., New, M., Osborn, T. J., Skliris, N.,
Stott, P. A., Vidale, P. L., Wijffels, S. E., Wilcox, L. J., Willett, K. M.,
and Zhang, X.: Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1097–1115, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1, 2015.
Hidalgo, H. G. and Dracup, J. A.: ENSO and PDO Effects on Hydroclimatic
Variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4,
5–23, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0005:EAPEOH>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Hijmans, R. J., Phillips, S., Leathwick, J. R., and Elith, J.: Package “dismo”, October, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.022, 2017.
IPCC: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Fifth Assess. Rep., 10–12,
available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml (last access: 8 May 2019), 2014.
Jöhnk, K. D., Straile, D., and Ostendorp, W.: Water level variability and
trends in lake constance in the light of the 1999 centennial flood,
Limnologica, 34, 15–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0075-9511(04)80017-3, 2004.
Kim, K. Y. and Wu, Q.: A comparison study of EOF techniques: Analysis of
nonstationary data with periodic statistics, J. Climate, 12, 185–199,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-12.1.185, 1999.
Kraemer, B. M.: GlobalLakeLevels, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3363187, 2019.
Lau, W. K. M. and Kim, K. M.: The 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat wave:
Teleconnection of hydrometeorological extremes, J. Hydrometeorol., 13,
392–403, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-016.1, 2012.
Lenters, J. D.: Long-term Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Great Lakes Water
Levels, J. Great Lakes Res., 27, 342–353,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(01)70650-8, 2001.
Lorenzo, D., E, Lorenzo, E. Di, Schneider, N., Cobb, K. M., Franks, P. J.
S., Chhak, K., Miller, A. J., Mcwilliams, J. C., Bograd, S. J., Arango, H.,
Curchitser, E., Powell, T. M., Rivie, P., Di Lorenzo, E., Schneider, N.,
Cobb, K. M., Franks, P. J. S., Chhak, K., Miller, A. J., Mcwilliams, J. C.,
Bograd, S. J., Arango, H., Curchitser, E., Powell, T. M., and Rivière,
P.: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032838, 2008.
Marchant, R., Mumbi, C., Behera, S., and Yamagata, T.: The Indian Ocean
dipole – the unsung driver of climatic variability in East Africa, Afr. J.
Ecol., 45, 4–16, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, 2007.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Four billion people facing severe water
scarcity, Sci. Adv., 2, e1500323, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500323, 2016.
Mercier, F., Cazenave, A., and Maheu, C.: Interannual lake level fluctuations
(1993–1999) in Africa from Topex/Poseidon: connections with
ocean–atmosphere interactions over the Indian Ocean, Global Planet. Change,
32, 141–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(01)00139-4, 2002.
Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., and Schmitt, O.:
Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a
geo-statistical approach, Nat. Commun., 7, 13603, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603,
2016.
Micklin, P. P.: Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water Management Disaster in
the Soviet Union, Science, 241, 1170–1176,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.241.4870.1170, 1988.
Molinos, J. and Donohue, I.: Downscaling the non-stationary effect of
climate forcing on local-scale dynamics: The importance of environmental
filters, Clim. Change, 124, 333–346, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1077-4,
2014.
Molinos, J. G., Viana, M., Brennan, M., and Donohue, I.: Importance of
long-term cycles for predicting water level dynamics in natural lakes,
edited by I. Álvarez, PLoS One, 10, e0119253,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0119253, 2015.
Muller, M.: Cape Town's drought: don't blame climate change, Nature,
559, 174–176, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-05649-1, 2018.
Nijssen, B., O'Donnell, G. M., Hamlet, A. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.:
Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change, Clim. Change,
50, 143–175, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010616428763, 2001.
O'Gorman, P. A., Allan, R. P., Byrne, M. P., and Previdi, M.: Energetic
Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change, Surv. Geophys., 33,
585–608, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6, 2012.
Pasquini, A. I., Lecomte, K. L., and Depetris, P. J.: Climate change and
recent water level variability in Patagonian proglacial lakes, Argentina,
Global Planet. Change, 63, 290–298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.07.001,
2008.
Pekel, J.-F., Cottam, A., Gorelick, N., and Belward, A. S.: High-resolution
mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature,
540, 418–422, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20584, 2016.
Phinyomark, A., Hettinga, B. A., Osis, S., and Ferber, R.: Do intermediate-
and higher-order principal components contain useful information to detect
subtle changes in lower extremity biomechanics during running?, Hum. Movement
Sci., 44, 91–101, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.humov.2015.08.018, 2015.
Ramanathan, V., Crutzen, P. J., Kiehl, J. T., and Rosenfeld, D.: Aerosols,
climate, and the hydrological cycle, Science, 294, 2119–2124,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064034, 2001.
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R
Found. Stat. Comput., available at: http://www.r-project.org/ (last access: 16 November 2018),
2017.
Ricko, M., Carton, J. A., and Birkett, C.: Climatic Effects on Lake Basins.
Part I: Modeling Tropical Lake Levels, J. Climate, 24, 2983–2999,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3602.1, 2011.
Rodell, M., Famiglietti, J. S., Wiese, D. N., Reager, J. T., Beaudoing, H.
K., Landerer, F. W., and Lo, M.-H.: Emerging trends in global freshwater
availability, Nature, 557, 651–659, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1, 2018.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: Global and Regional Scale
Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation,
Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1606–1626,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2,
1987.
Stager, J. C., Ryves, D., Cumming, B. F., David Meeker, L., and Beer, J.:
Solar variability and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, during the
last millenium, J. Paleolimnol., 33, 243–251,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-004-4227-2, 2005.
Stager, J. C., Ruzmaikin, A., Conway, D., Verburg, P., and Mason, P. J.:
Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D15106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008362, 2007.
Stenseth, N. C., Ottersen, G., Hurrell, J. W., Mysterud, A., Lima, M., Chan,
K. S., Yoccoz, N. G., and Ådlandsvik, B.: Studying climate effects on
ecology through the use of climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation,
El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond, P. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.,
270, 2087–2096, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2415, 2003.
Tao, S., Fang, J., Zhao, X., Zhao, S., Shen, H., Hu, H., Tang, Z., Wang, Z.,
Guo, Q., and Turner, B. L.: Rapid loss of lakes on the Mongolian Plateau,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 2281–2286,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411748112, 2015.
Tierney, J. E., Russell, J. M., Huang, Y., Damsté, J. S. S., Hopmans, E.
C., and Cohen, A. S.: Northern hemisphere controls on tropical southeast
African climate during the past 60,000 years., Science, 322,
252–255, 2008.
Tierney, J. E., Smerdon, J. E., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Seager, R.:
Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the
Indian Ocean., Nature, 493, 389–392, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11785, 2013.
Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., and Roeckner,
E.: Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future
greenhouse warming, Nature, 398, 694–697, https://doi.org/10.1038/19505, 1999.
Tomasion, M. and Valle, F. D.: Natural climatic changes and solar cycles: An
analysis of hydrological time series, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 45, 477–489,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660009492344, 2000.
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service and United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
Global Reservoirs and Lakes Monitoring Program, available at: https://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/,
last access: 24 January 2020.
United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies: Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, available at:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/, last access: 24 January 2020.
Vadeboncoeur, Y., McIntyre, P. B., and Vander Zanden, M. J.: Borders of
biodiversity: life at the edge of the world's large lakes, Bioscience,
61, 526–537, https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.7, 2011.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S. Y., and Collins, M.: El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study, Ocean Sci., 1, 81–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-1-81-2005, 2005.
Vinukollu, R. K., Meynadier, R., Sheffield, J., and Wood, E. F.: Multi-model,
multi-sensor estimates of global evapotranspiration: climatology,
uncertainties and trends, Hydrol. Process., 25, 3993–4010,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8393, 2011.
Vörösmarty, C. J. and Sahagian, D.: Anthropogenic Disturbance of the
Terrestrial Water Cycle, Bioscience, 50, 753,
https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0753:adottw]2.0.co;2, 2006.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., and Lammers, R. B.:
Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population
growth, Science, 289, 284–288,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284, 2000.
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D.,
Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A.,
Liermann, C. R., and Davies, P. M.: Global threats to human water security
and river biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440, 2010.
Wang, B., Liu, J., Kim, H. J., Webster, P. J., and Yim, S. Y.: Recent change
of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008), Clim. Dynam., 39,
1123–1135, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z, 2012.
Wang, J., Yang, B., Ljungqvist, F. C., Luterbacher, J., Osborn, T. J.,
Briffa, K. R., and Zorita, E.: Internal and external forcing of multidecadal
Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years, Nat. Geosci., 10,
512–517,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2962, 2017.
Wang, S. Y., Gillies, R. R., Jin, J., and Hipps, L. E.: Coherence between the
great salt lake level and the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation, J. Climate,
23, 2161–2177, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2979.1, 2010.
Wrzesiński, D., Ptak, M., and Plewa, K.: Effect of the north Atlantic
oscillation on water level fluctuations in lakes of northern Poland, Geogr.
Pol., 91, 243–259, https://doi.org/10.7163/gpol.0119, 2018.
Wurtsbaugh, W. A., Miller, C., Null, S. E., Justin De Rose, R., Wilcock, P.,
Hahnenberger, M., Howe, F., and Moore, J.: Decline of the world's saline
lakes, Nat. Geosci., 10, 816–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO3052, 2017.
Zhang, G., Xie, H., Kang, S., Yi, D., and Ackley, S. F.: Monitoring lake
level changes on the Tibetan Plateau using ICESat altimetry data
(2003–2009), Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 1733–1742,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.03.005, 2011.
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural...
