Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Research article
09 Mar 2017
Research article |  | 09 Mar 2017

CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States

Di Tian, Eric F. Wood, and Xing Yuan

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Cited articles

Brunet, G., Shapiro, M., Hoskins, B., Moncrieff, M., Dole, R., Kiladis, G. N., Kirtman, B., Lorenc, A., Mills, B., Morss, R., Polavarapu, S., Rogers, D., Schaake, J., and Shukla, J.: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1397–1406, 2010
Donkor, E. A., Mazzuchi, T. A., Soyer, R., and Alan Roberson, J.: Urban water demand forecasting: review of methods and models, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 140, 146–159, 2012.
Garcia-Morales, M. B. and Dubus, L.: Forecasting precipitation for hydroelectric power management: how to exploit GCM's seasonal ensemble forecasts, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1691,, 2007.
Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Palmer, T. N.: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept, Tellus A, 57, 219–233, 2005.
Hamilton, E., Eade, R., Graham, R. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Maidens, A. and MacLachlan, C.: Forecasting the number of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D03114,, 2012.
Short summary
This study evaluated dynamic climate model sub-seasonal forecasts for important precipitation and temperature indices over the contiguous United States. The presence of active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events improved weekly mean precipitation forecast skill over most regions. Sub-seasonal forecast indices calculated from the daily forecast showed higher skill than temporally downscaled forecasts, suggesting the usefulness of the daily forecast for sub-seasonal hydrological forecasting.