Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2841-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2841-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jul 2016
Research article |
| 15 Jul 2016
Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use–land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012
Claire Casse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Géoscience Environnement Toulouse (UMR5563 CNRS, IRD,
Université Toulouse III), Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse,
France
Marielle Gosset
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Géoscience Environnement Toulouse (UMR5563 CNRS, IRD,
Université Toulouse III), Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse,
France
Théo Vischel
Laboratoire des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement
(UMR5564, CNRS, IRD, Université Grenoble I), France
Guillaume Quantin
Laboratoire des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement
(UMR5564, CNRS, IRD, Université Grenoble I), France
Bachir Alkali Tanimoun
Autorité du Bassin du Niger (ABN), Niamey,
Niger
Related authors
C. Casse and M. Gosset
Proc. IAHS, 370, 117–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-117-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-117-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of floods due to the Niger River has been observed in the last decade in Niamey. This paper analyses how changes in rainfall may explain this flood intensification, based on a 30 year long series of satellite rainfall and a hydrological model. We show that the salient changes in the mean decadal hydrograph between 1983 and 2013 are well mimicked by the simulations. This implyes that rainfall is the first driver to the observed changes.
Maxime Turko, Marielle Gosset, Christophe Bouvier, Nanee Chahinian, Matias Alcoba, Modeste Kacou, and Apoline Yappi
Proc. IAHS, 383, 237–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-237-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-237-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Urban floods due to intense precipitation is a major problem in many developing countries, especially in Africa. Rainfall measurement using cellular communication networks is a cost effective method to monitor the heavy rainfall that cause these floods. The method is based on analyzing signal fluctuations due to rain between telecommunication antennas. Here we present simulation studies to test how rainfall measured by this method can help predicting floods in urban areas.
Odin Marc, André Stumpf, Jean-Philippe Malet, Marielle Gosset, Taro Uchida, and Shou-Hao Chiang
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 903–922, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-903-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall-induced landslides cause significant damage and fatality worldwide, but we have few datasets constraining the impact of individual storms. We present and analyze 8 landslide inventories, with >150 to >150 00 landslides, comprehensively representing the landslide population caused by 8 storms from Asia and the Americas. We found that the total storm rainfall is a major control on total landsliding, landslide size, and that storms trigger landslides on less steep slopes than earthquakes.
Youssouph Sane, Geremy Panthou, Ansoumana Bodian, Theo Vischel, Thierry Lebel, Honore Dacosta, Guillaume Quantin, Catherine Wilcox, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aida Diongue-Niang, and Mariane Diop Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1849–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1849-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization, resulting from a sharply increasing demographic pressure and the development of infrastructure, has made the population of many tropical areas more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall distribution is thus becoming an overarching need in hydrological applications. Using 14 tipping-bucket rain-gauge series, this study provides IDF curves and uncertainties over Senegal. Climate change requires warning end-users that they should be used with care.
Delphine J. Leroux, Thierry Pellarin, Théo Vischel, Jean-Martial Cohard, Tania Gascon, François Gibon, Arnaud Mialon, Sylvie Galle, Christophe Peugeot, and Luc Seguis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2827–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Water is one of the most valuable resources and has an undeniable influence on every aspect of life. Being a very good indicator of the water cycle, the soil water content can be monitored by satellites from space. The region studied here is located in Benin, West Africa, where people have to face major water-related risks every year during the monsoon season. By adjusting the model simulations with satellite observations, river discharge and water table levels have greatly been improved.
C. Casse and M. Gosset
Proc. IAHS, 370, 117–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-117-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-117-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of floods due to the Niger River has been observed in the last decade in Niamey. This paper analyses how changes in rainfall may explain this flood intensification, based on a 30 year long series of satellite rainfall and a hydrological model. We show that the salient changes in the mean decadal hydrograph between 1983 and 2013 are well mimicked by the simulations. This implyes that rainfall is the first driver to the observed changes.
G. Panthou, T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G. Quantin, and G. Molinié
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5093–5107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change on the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely-sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Amy Charlotte Green, Chris G. Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well at generating realistic weather radar images visually, for a large range of event types.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings revealed runoff generation is dominated by rainfall runoff in the YZ, and the largest glacier runoff contribution is in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff trends indicate an increase in the NX but a decrease in the NX-BXK for 1971–2020, due to contrasting precipitation changes. Total runoff across the sub-basins will consistently increase through the 21st century, mostly resulting from increased rainfall runoff.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely-sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach which is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, and to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212), as well as to remotely-sensed satellite estimates.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Cited articles
Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Andersson, J., Müller, E., and Hattermann, F.: Climate or Land Use? – Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone, Water, 7, 2796–2820, https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062796, 2015.
Albergel, J.: Sécheresse, désertification et ressources en eau de surface – Application aux petits bassins du Burkina Faso, in: The Influence of Climate Change and Climatic Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources, vol. 168, 355–365, IAHS PUBLICATION, Vancouver, 1987.
Amani, A. and Nguetora, M.: Evidence d'une modification du régime hydrologique du fleuve Niger à Niamey, in 4th FRIEND 2002 – Regional Hydrology?: Bridging the Gap between Research and practice, vol. 274, 449–456, IAHS PUBLICATION, Cape Town, South Africa, 2002.
AMMA-CATCH database, available at: http://bd.amma-catch.org/amma-catch2/main.jsf, last access: 7 July 2016.
Amogu, O., Descroix, L., Yéro, K. S., Le Breton, E., Mamadou, I., Ali, A., Vischel, T., Bader, J.-C., Moussa, I. B., Gautier, E., Boubkraoui, S., and Belleudy, P.: Increasing River Flows in the Sahel?, Water, 2, 170–199, https://doi.org/10.3390/w2020170, 2010.
Ashouri, H., Hsu, K.-L., Sorooshian, S., Braithwaite, D. K., Knapp, K. R., Cecil, L. D., Nelson, B. R., and Prat, O. P.: PERSIANN-CDR: Daily Precipitation Climate Data Record from Multisatellite Observations for Hydrological and Climate Studies, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 69–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00068.1, 2015.
Boone, A., Calvet, J.-C., and Noilhan, J.: Inclusion of a third soil layer in a land surface scheme using the force-restore method, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1611–1630, 1999.
Briquet, J. P., Mahé, G., Bamba, F., and Olivry, J. C.: Changements climatiques recents et modification du regime hydrologique du fleuve Niger Koulikoro (Mali), in: L'hydrologie tropicale?: géoscience et outil pour le développement, vol. 238, 157–166, IAHS PUBLICATION, Paris, 1996.
Camberlin, P., Beltrando, G., Fontaine, B., and Richard, Y.: Pluviométrie et crises climatiques en Afrique Tropicale?: changements durables ou fluctuations interannuelles?, Histoire et Géographes, 379, 263–273, 2002.
Casenave, A. and Valentin, C.: A runoff capability classification system based on surface features criteria in semi-arid areas of West Africa, J. Hydrol., 130, 231–249, 1992.
Casse, C. and Gosset, M.: Analysis of hydrological changes and flood increase in Niamey based on the PERSIANN-CDR satellite rainfall estimate and hydrological simulations over the 1983–2013 period, Proc. IAHS, 370, 117–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-117-2015, 2015.
Casse, C., Gosset, M., Peugeot, C., Pedinotti, V., Boone, A., Tanimoun, B. A., and Decharme, B.: Potential of satellite rainfall products to predict Niger River flood events in Niamey, Atmos. Res., 163, 162–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.01.010, 2015.
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V. B. S., Kousky, V. E., Wayne Higgins, R., and Janowiak, J. E.: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132, 2008.
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Gauged-based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation, available at: http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_GLB/, last access: 7 July 2016.
Collinet, J. and Valentin, C.: Analyse des différents facteurs intervenant sur l'hydrodynamique superficielle, Nouvelle perspectives – Applications agronomiques, ORSTOM, Centre d'Adiopodoume, B.P V-51 Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), 1979.
Dai, A., Lamb, P. J., Trenberth, K. E., Hulme, M., Jones, P. D., and Xie, P.: The recent Sahel drought is real, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1323–1331, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1083, 2004.
Decharme, B. and Douville, H.: Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model, Clim. Dynam., 26, 65–78, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0059-7, 2005.
Decharme, B. and Douville, H.: Global validation of the ISBA sub-grid hydrology, Clim. Dynam., 29, 21–37, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0216-7, 2007.
Decharme, B., Douville, H., Boone, A., Habets, F., and Noilhan, J.: Impact of an exponential profile of saturated hydraulic conductivity within the ISBA LSM: Simulations over the Rhône basin., J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 61–80, 2006.
Desconnets, J. C., Taupin, J. D., Lebel, T., and Leduc, C.: Hydrology of the HAPEX-Sahel Central Super-site: surface water drainage and aquifer recharge through the pool systems, J. Hydrol., 188–189, 155–178, 1997.
Descroix, L., Mahé, G., Lebel, T., Favreau, G., Galle, S., Gautier, E., Olivry, J.-C., Albergel, J., Amogu, O., Cappelaere, B., Dessouassi, R., Diedhiou, A., Le Breton, E., Mamadou, I., and Sighomnou, D.: Spatio-temporal variability of hydrological regimes around the boundaries between Sahelian and Sudanian areas of West Africa: A synthesis, J. Hydrol., 375, 90–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.012, 2009.
Descroix, L., Genthon, P., Amogu, O., Rajot, J.-L., Sighomnou, D., and Vauclin, M.: Change in Sahelian Rivers hydrograph: The case of recent red floods of the Niger River in the Niamey region, Global Planet. Change, 98–99, 18–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.07.009, 2012.
Descroix, L., Niang, A. D., Dacosta, H., Panthou, G., Quantin, G., and Diedhiou, A.: Evolution des pluies de cumul élévé et recrudescence des crues depuis 1951 dans le bassin du Niger Moyen (Sahel), Climatologie, 10, 37–50, 2013.
D'Orgeval, T. and Polcher, J.: Impacts of precipitation events and land-use changes on West African river discharges during the years 1951–2000, Clim. Dynam., 31, 249–262, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0350-x, 2008.
Eldridge, R. H.: A synoptic study of West African disturbance lines, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 83, 303–314, 1957.
Favreau, G., Cappelaere, B., Massuel, S., Leblanc, M., Boucher, M., Boulain, N., and Leduc, C.: Land clearing, climate variability, and water resources increase in semiarid southwest Niger: A review, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006785, 2009.
Galle, S., Ehrmann, M., and Peugeot, C.: Water balance in a banded vegetation pattern: a case study of tiger bush in western Niger, Catena, 37, 197–216, 1999.
Gandin, L. S.: Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields. Leningrad, Gidromet; Translated from Russian, Jerusalem, Israel Program for Scientific Translations, 1965, 242 pp., 1965.
Gardelle, J., Hiernaux, P., Kergoat, L., and Grippa, M.: Less rain, more water in ponds: a remote sensing study of the dynamics of surface waters from 1950 to present in pastoral Sahel (Gourma region, Mali), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 309–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-309-2010, 2010.
Gosset, M., Viarre, J., Quantin, G., and Alcoba, M.: Evaluation of several rainfall products used for hydrological applications over West Africa using two high-resolution gauge networks, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2130, 2013.
Hiernaux, P. and Le Houérou, H. N.: Les parcours du Sahel, Sécheresse, 17, 51–71, 2006.
Houze, R. A.: Cloud dynamics, International Geophysics Series, 53, Academic Press Inc., San Diego, 1993.
Huffman, G. J., Alder, R. F., Arkin, P., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Gruber, A., Janowiak, J., McNab, A., Rudolf, B., and Schneider, U.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 5–20, 1997.
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Gu, G.: Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040000, 2009.
Kirstetter, P.-E., Viltard, N., and Gosset, M.: An error model for instantaneous satellite rainfall estimates: evaluation of BRAIN-TMI over West Africa, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 894–911, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1964, 2012.
Lamb, P. J.: Persistence of Subsaharan drough, Nature, 299, 46–48, 1982.
Laurent, H., d'Amato, N., and Lebel, T.: How important is the contribution of the mesoscale convective complexes to the Sahelian rainfall?, Phys. Chem. Earth, 23, 629–633, 1998.
Le Barbé, L. and Lebel, T.: Rainfall climatology of the HAPEX-Sahel region during the years 1950–1990, J. Hydrol., 188–189, 43–73, 1997.
Le Barbé, L., Lebel, T. and Tapsoba, D.: Rainfall variability in West Africa during the years 1950–90, J. Climate., 15, 187–202, 2002.
Lebel, T. and Ali, A.: Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007), J. Hydrol., 375, 52–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030, 2009.
Lebel, T., Diedhiou, A., and Laurent, H.: Seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the Sahelian rainfall at hydrological scales, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8389, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001580, 2003.
Lebel, T., Parker, D. J., Flamant, C., Bourlès, B., Marticorena, B., Mougin, E., Peugeot, C., Diedhiou, A., Haywood, J. M., Ngamini, J. B., Polcher, J., Redelsperger, J.-L., and Thorncroft, C. D.: The AMMA field campaigns: multiscale and multidisciplinary observations in the West African region, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 8–33, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.486, 2010.
Leblanc, M. J., Favreau, G., Massuel, S., Tweed, S. O., Loireau, M., and Cappelaere, B.: Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger, Global Planet. Change, 61, 135–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.08.011, 2008.
Leduc, C., Favreau, G., and Schroeter, P.: Long-term rise in a Sahelian water-table: The Continental Terminal in south-west Niger, J. Hydrol., 243, 43–54, 2001.
L'Hote, Y., Mahé, G., Somé, B., and Triboulet, J. P.: Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 47, 563–572, 2002.
Mahé, G.: Surface/groundwater interactions in the Bani and Nakambe rivers, tributaries of the Niger and Volta basins, West Africa, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 704–712, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.4.704, 2009.
Mahé, G. and Paturel, J.-E.: 1896–2006 Sahelian annual rainfall variability and runoff increase of Sahelian Rivers, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 341, 538–546, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2009.05.002, 2009.
Mahé, G., Olivry, J.-C., Dessouassi, R., Orange, D., Bamba, F., and Servat, E.: Relations eaux de surface – eaux souterraines d'une rivière tropicale au Mali, Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences-Series IIA-Earth and Planetary Science, 330, 689–692, 2000.
Mahé, G., Leduc, C., Amani, A., Paturel, J. E., Girard, S., Servat, E., and Dezetter, A.: Augmentation récente du ruissellement de surface en région soudano-sahélienne et impact sur les ressources en eau, in Hydrology of the Mediterranean and Semiarid Region, vol. 278, 215–222, IAHS PUBLICATION, Montpellier, 2003.
Mahé, G., Paturel, J.-E., Servat, E., Conway, D., and Dezetter, A.: The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso, J. Hydrol., 300, 33–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.04.028, 2005.
Mamadou, I., Gautier, E., Descroix, L., Noma, I., Bouzou Moussa, I., Faran Maiga, O., Genthon, P., Amogu, O., Malam Abdou, M., and Vandervaere, J.-P.: Exorheism growth as an explanation of increasing flooding in the Sahel, Catena, 131, 130–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.03.017, 2015.
Masson, V., Champeaux, J.-L., Chauvin, F., Meriguet, C., and Lacaze, R.: A global database of land surface parameters at 1-km resolution in meteorological and climate models, J. Climate, 16, 1261–1282, 2003.
Masson, V., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Faroux, S., Alias, A., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Barbu, A., Boone, A., Bouyssel, F., Brousseau, P., Brun, E., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Donier, S., Essaouini, K., Gibelin, A.-L., Giordani, H., Habets, F., Jidane, M., Kerdraon, G., Kourzeneva, E., Lafaysse, M., Lafont, S., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lemonsu, A., Mahfouf, J.-F., Marguinaud, P., Mokhtari, M., Morin, S., Pigeon, G., Salgado, R., Seity, Y., Taillefer, F., Tanguy, G., Tulet, P., Vincendon, B., Vionnet, V., and Voldoire, A.: The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013.
Mathon, V., Laurent, H., and Lebel, T.: Mesoscale convective system rainfall in the Sahel, J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 1081–1092, 2002.
Millot, J. A.: Les crues du Niger, Annales de Géographie, 22, 68–93, https://doi.org/10.3406/geo.1913.8385, 1913.
Narisma, G. T., Foley, J. A., Licker, R., and Ramankutty, N.: Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028628, 2007.
Nicholson, S. E., Some, B., and Kone, B.: An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña years, J. Climate, 13, 2628–2640, 2000.
Nka, B. N., Oudin, L., Karambiri, H., Paturel, J. E., and Ribstein, P.: Trends in floods in West Africa: analysis based on 11 catchments in the region, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4707–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, 2015.
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A Simple Parametrization of Land Surface Processes for Meteorological Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 536–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Panthou, G., Vischel, T., and Lebel, T.: Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3998–4006, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984, 2014.
Paturel, J.-E., Diawara, A., Kong, A., Siou, L., Talin, E., Ferry, L., Mahé, G., Dezetter, A., Muther, N., Martin, D., Rouche, N., L'Aour-Cres, A., Seguis, L., Coulibaly, N., Bahire-Kone, S., and Koite, M.: Caractérisation de la sécheresse hydropluviométrique du Bani, principal affluent du fleuve Niger au Mali, in: Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources, IAHS PUBLICATION, 661–667, Fez, 2010.
Pedinotti, V., Boone, A., Decharme, B., Crétaux, J. F., Mognard, N., Panthou, G., Papa, F., and Tanimoun, B. A.: Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrologic system over the Niger basin using in situ and satellite derived datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1745–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1745-2012, 2012.
PERSIANN Precipitation Climate Data Record, available at:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/atmospheric/precipitation-persiann-cdr, last access: 7 July 2016.
Peltier, R., Bertrand, A., Lawali, E. M., Madon, G., and Montagne, P.: Marchés ruraux de bois-énergie ay Sahel, Bois et Forêts des Tropiques, 245, 3ème Trimestre, 1995.
Pradé, M.: Fleuves et rivières, Les Études rhodaniennes, 10, 97–100, 1934.
Roca, R., Chambon, P., Jobard, I., Kirstetter, P.-E., Gosset, M., and Bergès, J.-C.: Comparing Satellite and Surface Rainfall Products over West Africa at Meteorologically Relevant Scales during the AMMA Campaign Using Error Estimates, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 715–731, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2318.1, 2010.
Rowell, D. P. and Milford, J. R.: On the Generation of African Squall Lines, J. Climate, 6, 1181–1193, 1993.
Seghieri, J., Galle, S., and Rajot, J. L.: La brousse tigrée dans le Sahel Nigérien?: étude de la cofluctuation du stock hydrique et de la végétation annuelle, Xe journées hydrologiques, 123–141, ORSTOM, 1994.
Seguis, L., Cappelaere, B., Milesi, G., Peugeot, C., Massuel, S., and Favreau, G.: Simulated impacts of climate change and land-clearing on runoff from a small Sahelian catchment, Hydrol. Process., 18, 3401–3413, 2004.
Sighomnou, D., Descroix, L., Mahe, G., Moussa, I. B., Gautier, E., Mamadou, I., Vandervaere, J.-P., Bachir, T., Coulibaly, B., Rajot, J.-L., Issa, O. M., Dessay, N., Delaître, E., Maiga, O. F., Diedhiou, A., Panthou, G., Vischel, T., Yacouba, H., Karambiri, H., Paturel, J. E., Diello, P., Mougin, E., Kergoat, L., and Hiernaux, P.: La crue de 2012 à Niamey?: un paroxysme du paradoxe du Sahel?, Sécheresse, 24, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.1684/sec.2013.0370, 2013.
Sorooshian, S., Hsu, K., Gao, X., Gupta, H. V., Imam, B., and Braithwaite, D.: Evaluation of PERSIANN System Satellite-Based Estimates of Tropical Rainfall, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2035–2046, 2000.
Valentin, C., Rajot, J.-L., and Mitja, D.: Responses of soil crusting, runoff and erosion to fallowing in the sub-humid and semi-arid regions of West Africa, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 104, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2004.01.035, 2004.
Vischel, T. and Lebel, T.: Assessing the water balance in the Sahel: Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff. Part 2: Idealized modeling of runoff sensitivity, J. Hydrol., 333, 340–355, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.007, 2007.
Vischel, T., Quantin, G., Lebel, T., Viarre, J., Gosset, M., Cazenave, F., and Panthou, G.: Generation of High-Resolution Rain Fields in West Africa: Evaluation of Dynamic Interpolation Methods, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05015.1, 2011.
Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E., Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823–848, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1369.1, 2011.
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G., Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014.
Short summary
Since 1950, the Niger River basin has overcome drastic changes. In Niamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus Land Use Land Cover changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper using observations and modelling. We conclude on the successive role of cover and then rainfall variability.
Since 1950, the Niger River basin has overcome drastic changes. In Niamey city, the highest...
