Articles | Volume 28, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2024
| 26 Apr 2024
Variation and attribution of probable maximum precipitation of China using a high-resolution dataset in a changing climate
Jinghua Xiong
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Abhishek
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, India
Jiabo Yin
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Chongyu Xu
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway
Jun Wang
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Jing Guo
Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 311122, China
Related authors
Jinghua Xiong, Abhishek, Li Xu, Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar, James S. Famiglietti, Chong Zhang, Gionata Ghiggi, Shenglian Guo, Yun Pan, and Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4571–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To overcome the shortcomings associated with limited spatiotemporal coverage, input data quality, and model simplifications in prevailing evaporation (ET) estimates, we developed an ensemble of 4669 unique terrestrial ET subsets using an independent mass balance approach. Long-term mean annual ET is within 500–600 mm yr−1 with a unimodal seasonal cycle and several piecewise trends during 2002–2021. The uncertainty-constrained results underpin the notion of increasing ET in a warming climate.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Abhishek, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6457–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Although the "dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter (DDWW)" paradigm is prevalent in summarizing wetting and drying trends, we show that only 11.01 %–40.84 % of the global land confirms and 10.21 %–35.43 % contradicts the paradigm during 1985–2014 from a terrestrial water storage change perspective. Similar proportions that intensify with the increasing emission scenarios persist until the end of the 21st century. Findings benefit understanding of global hydrological responses to climate change.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Although the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is widely used to describe the trends in wetting and drying globally, we show that 27.1 % of global land agrees with the paradigm, while 22.4 % shows the opposite pattern during the period 1985–2014 from the perspective of terrestrial water storage change. Similar percentages are discovered under different scenarios during the future period. Our findings will benefit the understanding of hydrological responses under climate change.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controls for changes in precipitation-runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation-runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing the warnings based on the people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to the people’s tolerance levels of the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase the forecasting accuracy and decrease the forecasting variance.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Gokturk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We compared extreme precipitations in Norway from convection-permitting models at 3 km resolution (HCLIM3) and regional climate model at 12 km (HCLIM12) and show that the HCLIM3 is more accurate than HCLIM12 in predicting the intense rainfalls that can lead to floods, especially at local scales. This is more clear in hourly extremes than daily. Our research suggests using more detailed climate models could improve forecasts, helping the local society brace for the impacts of extreme weather.
Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Abdou Khouakhi, Le Yu, Pan Liu, Fupeng Li, Yadu Pokhrel, and Pierre Gentine
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5597–5615, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents long-term (i.e., 1940–2022) and high-resolution (i.e., 0.25°) monthly time series of TWS anomalies over the global land surface. The reconstruction is achieved by using a set of machine learning models with a large number of predictors, including climatic and hydrological variables, land use/land cover data, and vegetation indicators (e.g., leaf area index). Our proposed GTWS-MLrec performs overall as well as, or is more reliable than, previous TWS datasets.
Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thomas Kneib, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, and Chong-Yu Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2335, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating flood quantiles at data-scarce sites often involves single-duration regression models. However, floodplain management and reservoir design, for example, need estimates at several durations, posing challenges. Our flexible generalized additive model (GAM) enhances accuracy and explanation, revealing that single-duration models may underperform elsewhere, emphasizing the need for adaptable approaches.
Jinghua Xiong, Abhishek, Li Xu, Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar, James S. Famiglietti, Chong Zhang, Gionata Ghiggi, Shenglian Guo, Yun Pan, and Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4571–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To overcome the shortcomings associated with limited spatiotemporal coverage, input data quality, and model simplifications in prevailing evaporation (ET) estimates, we developed an ensemble of 4669 unique terrestrial ET subsets using an independent mass balance approach. Long-term mean annual ET is within 500–600 mm yr−1 with a unimodal seasonal cycle and several piecewise trends during 2002–2021. The uncertainty-constrained results underpin the notion of increasing ET in a warming climate.
Pengxiang Wang, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu, Chongyu Xu, Kang Wang, Yangli Liu, Jia Li, Yuqing Li, Yangwen Jia, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2681–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the impact of the special geological and climatic conditions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau on the hydrological cycle, this study established the WEP-QTP hydrological model. The snow cover and gravel layers affected the temporal and spatial changes in frozen soil and improved the regulation of groundwater on the flow process. Ignoring he influence of special underlying surface conditions has a great impact on the hydrological forecast and water resource utilization in this area.
Youjiang Shen, Dedi Liu, Liguang Jiang, Karina Nielsen, Jiabo Yin, Jun Liu, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5671–5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A data gap of 338 Chinese reservoirs with their surface water area (SWA), water surface elevation (WSE), and reservoir water storage change (RWSC) during 2010–2021. Validation against the in situ observations of 93 reservoirs indicates the relatively high accuracy and reliability of the datasets. The unique and novel remotely sensed dataset would benefit studies involving many aspects (e.g., hydrological models, water resources related studies, and more).
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Abhishek, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6457–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Although the "dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter (DDWW)" paradigm is prevalent in summarizing wetting and drying trends, we show that only 11.01 %–40.84 % of the global land confirms and 10.21 %–35.43 % contradicts the paradigm during 1985–2014 from a terrestrial water storage change perspective. Similar proportions that intensify with the increasing emission scenarios persist until the end of the 21st century. Findings benefit understanding of global hydrological responses to climate change.
Jing Tian, Zhengke Pan, Shenglian Guo, Jiabo Yin, Yanlai Zhou, and Jun Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4853–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the literature has focused on the runoff response to climate change, while neglecting the impacts of the potential variation in the active catchment water storage capacity (ACWSC) that plays an essential role in the transfer of climate inputs to the catchment runoff. This study aims to systematically identify the response of the ACWSC to a long-term meteorological drought and asymptotic climate change.
Shanlin Tong, Weiguang Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hisashi Sato, and Guoqing Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7075–7098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plant carbon storage potential is central to moderate atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup and mitigation of climate change. There is an ongoing debate about the main driver of carbon storage. To reconcile this discrepancy, we use SEIB-DGVM to investigate the trend and response mechanism of carbon stock fractions among water limitation regions. Results show that the impact of CO2 and temperature on carbon stock depends on water limitation, offering a new perspective on carbon–water coupling.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Although the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is widely used to describe the trends in wetting and drying globally, we show that 27.1 % of global land agrees with the paradigm, while 22.4 % shows the opposite pattern during the period 1985–2014 from the perspective of terrestrial water storage change. Similar percentages are discovered under different scenarios during the future period. Our findings will benefit the understanding of hydrological responses under climate change.
Pengxiang Wang, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu, Chongyu Xu, Kang Wang, Yangli Liu, Jia Li, Yuqing Li, Yangwen Jia, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-538, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Combining the geological characteristics of the thin soil layer on the thick gravel layer and the climate characteristics of the long-term snow cover of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the WEP-QTP hydrological model was constructed by dividing a single soil structure into soil and gravel. In contrast to the general cold area, the special environment of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau affects the hydrothermal transport process, which can not be ignored in hydrological forecast and water resource assessment.
Qifen Yuan, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5259–5275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Localized impacts of changing precipitation patterns on surface hydrology are often assessed at a high spatial resolution. Here we introduce a stochastic method that efficiently generates gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. The method works out a stochastic model that can describe a high-resolution data product in a reference period and form a realistic precipitation generator under a projected future climate. A case study of nine catchments in Norway shows that it works well.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Zhiyong Liu, and Huayang Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5859–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, 2020
Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Chong-Yu Xu, Lei Cheng, Jing Tian, Shujie Cheng, and Kang Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to identify the response of catchment water storage capacity (CWSC) to meteorological drought by examining the changes of hydrological-model parameters after drought events. This study improves our understanding of possible changes in the CWSC induced by a prolonged meteorological drought, which will help improve our ability to simulate the hydrological system under climate change.
Wenyan Qi, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Chong-yu Xu, Jingjing Li, Yiheng Xiang, and Shaobo Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) play important roles in global water resources estimation and it is difficult to obtain parameter values for GHMs. A framework is developed for building GHMs based on parameter regionalization of catchment scale conceptual hydrological models. Four different GHMs established based on this framework can produce reliable streamflow simulations. Over all, it can be used with any conceptual hydrological model even though uncertainty exists in using different models.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Xuezhi Tan, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1347–1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, 2020
Shaokun He, Shenglian Guo, Chong-Yu Xu, Kebing Chen, Zhen Liao, Lele Deng, Huanhuan Ba, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-586, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-586, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Aiming at cascade impoundment operation, we develop a classification-aggregation-decomposition method to overcome the
curse of dimensionalityand inflow stochasticity problem. It is tested with a mixed 30-reservoir system in China. The results show that our method can provide lots of schemes to refer to different flood event scenarios. The best scheme outperforms the conventional operating rule, as it increases impoundment efficiency and hydropower generation while flood control risk is less.
Lei Gu, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Hui-Min Wang, Shenglian Guo, Liping Zhang, and Jong-Suk Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Focusing on the multifaceted nature of droughts, this study quantifies the change in global drought risks for 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming trajectories by a multi-model ensemble under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Socioeconomic exposures are investigated by incorporating the dynamic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) into the drought impact assessment. The results show that even the ambitious 1.5 °C warming level can cause substantial increases on the global scale.
Désirée Treichler, Andreas Kääb, Nadine Salzmann, and Chong-Yu Xu
The Cryosphere, 13, 2977–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2977-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2977-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier growth such as that found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is counterintuitive in a warming world. Climate models and meteorological data are conflicting about the reasons for this glacier anomaly. We quantify the glacier changes in High Mountain Asia using satellite laser altimetry as well as the growth of over 1300 inland lakes on the TP. Our study suggests that increased summer precipitation is likely the largest contributor to the recently observed increases in glacier and lake masses.
Bin Xiong, Lihua Xiong, Jun Xia, Chong-Yu Xu, Cong Jiang, and Tao Du
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4453–4470, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a new indicator of reservoir effects, called the rainfall–reservoir composite index (RRCI). RRCI, coupled with the effects of static reservoir capacity and scheduling-related multivariate rainfall, has a better performance than the previous indicator in terms of explaining the variation in the downstream floods affected by reservoir operation. A covariate-based flood frequency analysis using RRCI can provide more reliable downstream flood risk estimation.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hua Chen, Shenglian Guo, Ping Xie, and Xiangquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4033–4050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
When using large ensembles of global climate models in hydrological impact studies, there are pragmatic questions on whether it is necessary to weight climate models and how to weight them. We use eight methods to weight climate models straightforwardly, based on their performances in hydrological simulations, and investigate the influences of the assigned weights. This study concludes that using bias correction and equal weighting is likely viable and sufficient for hydrological impact studies.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Xuezhi Tan, Chong-Yu Xu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A calibration scheme was developed for the dynamics of hydrological model parameters. Furthermore, a novel tool was designed to assess the reliability of the dynamized parameter set. The tool evaluates the convergence processes for global optimization algorithms using violin plots (ECP-VP). The results showed that the developed calibration scheme overcame the salient issues for poor model performance. Besides, the ECP-VP tool effectively assessed the reliability of the dynamic parameter set.
Cong Jiang, Lihua Xiong, Lei Yan, Jianfan Dong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present the methods addressing the multivariate hydrologic design applied to the engineering practice under nonstationary conditions. A dynamic C-vine copula allowing for both time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure is developed to capture the nonstationarities of multivariate flood distribution. Then, the multivariate hydrologic design under nonstationary conditions is estimated through specifying the design criterion by average annual reliability.
Lu Li, Mingxi Shen, Yukun Hou, Chong-Yu Xu, Arthur F. Lutz, Jie Chen, Sharad K. Jain, Jingjing Li, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The study used an integrated glacio-hydrological model for the hydrological projections of the Himalayan Beas basin under climate change. It is very likely that the upper Beas basin will get warmer and wetter in the future. This loss in glacier area will result in a reduction in glacier discharge, while the future changes in total discharge are uncertain. The uncertainty in future hydrological change is not only from GCMs, but also from the bias-correction methods and hydrological modeling.
Pan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Chong-Yu Xu, Shao Sun, and Jiayi Fang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
China is the country highly sensitive to flood disasters. Here we investigated flood disasters and relevant driving factors using meteorological disaster records s and also hourly rainfall data. We used the GeoDetector method to analyze potential driving factors behind flood disasters. We found increased rainstorm-induced flood disasters and increase in flood disaster frequency. Meanwhile, reduced flood-related death rates imply enhanced flood-mitigation infrastructure and facilities.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Hong Li, Jan Erik Haugen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5097–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key in the water system and glacier fate in the Great Himalayas region. We examine four datasets of available types in the Western Himalayas and they show very large differences. The differences depend much on the data source and are particularly large in monsoon seasons and high-elevation areas. All the datasets show a trend to wetter summer and drier winter and this trend reveals a tendency towards a high-flow seasonality and an unfavorable condition for glaciers.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Alex J. Cannon, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Bin Xiong, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, and Lingqi Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1525-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1525-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In changing environments, extreme low-flow events are expected to increase. Frequency analysis of low-flow events considering the impacts of changing environments has attracted increasing attention. This study developed a frequency analysis framework by applying 11 indices to trace the main causes of the change in the annual extreme low-flow events of the Weihe River. We showed that the fluctuation in annual low-flow series was affected by climate, streamflow recession and irrigation area.
Yanlai Zhou, Fi-John Chang, Shenglian Guo, Huanhuan Ba, and Shaokun He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-457, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Developing a robust recurrent ANFIS for modeling multi-step-ahead flood forecast. Fusing the LSE into GA for optimizing the parameters of recurrent ANFIS. Improving the robustness and generalization of recurrent ANFIS. An accurate and robust multi-step-ahead inflow forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir will provide precious decision-making time for effectively managing contingencies and emergencies and greatly alleviating flood risk as well as loss of life and property.
Diana Fuentes-Andino, Keith Beven, Sven Halldin, Chong-Yu Xu, José Eduardo Reynolds, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3597–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Reproduction of past floods requires information on discharge and flood extent, commonly unavailable or uncertain during extreme events. We explored the possibility of reproducing an extreme flood disaster using rainfall and post-event hydrometric information by combining a rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling tool within an uncertainty analysis framework. Considering the uncertainty in post–event data, it was possible to reasonably reproduce the extreme event.
Sharad K. Jain, Sanjay K. Jain, Neha Jain, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-100, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Chao Deng, Pan Liu, Shenglian Guo, Zejun Li, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4949–4961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4949-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4949-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological model parameters may vary in time under nonstationary conditions, i.e., climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model. Through a synthesis experiment and two case studies, the EnKF is demonstrated to be useful for the identification of parameter variations.
Lingqi Li, Lihua Xiong, Chong-Yu Xu, Shenglian Guo, and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The study offers insights into future design floods that are inferred with both AM and POT samplings under nonstationarity caused by changing climate. Future design floods in nonstationarity context are usually (lower than) but not necessarily more different from stationary estimates. AM-based projection is more sensitive to climate change than POT estimates. The over-dispersion in POT arrival rate leads to the invalidation of Poisson assumption that the misuse may induce overestimated floods.
Chao Deng, Pan Liu, Shenglian Guo, Zejun Li, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2015-407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2015-407, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological model parameters may not be constant in a changing environment, i.e., climate change and human activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model. Through a synthesis experiment and two case studies, the EnKF is demonstrated to be useful for the identification of parameter variation. The temporal variation parameter can be explained by catchment characteristic.
J. E. Reynolds, S. Halldin, C. Y. Xu, J. Seibert, and A. Kauffeldt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study it was found that time-scale dependencies of hydrological model parameters are a result of the numerical method used in the model rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. This study further indicates that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.
A. Kauffeldt, S. Halldin, A. Rodhe, C.-Y. Xu, and I. K. Westerberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2845–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
Accelerated soil moisture drought onset link to high temperatures and asymmetric responses associated with the hit timing
Drought cascades across multiple systems in Central Asia identified based on the dynamic space–time motion approach
What is the Priestley–Taylor wet-surface evaporation parameter? Testing four hypotheses
Understanding the diurnal cycle of land–atmosphere interactions from flux site observations
Breakdown in precipitation–temperature scaling over India predominantly explained by cloud-driven cooling
Historical droughts manifest an abrupt shift to a wetter Tibetan Plateau
Citizen rain gauges improve hourly radar rainfall bias correction using a two-step Kalman filter
Dynamical forcings in heavy precipitation events over Italy: lessons from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign
Water vapor isotopes indicating rapid shift among multiple moisture sources for the 2018–2019 winter extreme precipitation events in southeastern China
Spatiotemporal and cross-scale interactions in hydroclimate variability: a case-study in France
Relative humidity gradients as a key constraint on terrestrial water and energy fluxes
A climatological benchmark for operational radar rainfall bias reduction
The precipitation variability of the wet and dry season at the interannual and interdecadal scales over eastern China (1901–2016): the impacts of the Pacific Ocean
Flash drought onset over the contiguous United States: sensitivity of inventories and trends to quantitative definitions
A skewed perspective of the Indian rainfall–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship
Imprints of evaporative conditions and vegetation type in diurnal temperature variations
A universal Standardized Precipitation Index candidate distribution function for observations and simulations
A review of the complementary principle of evaporation: from the original linear relationship to generalized nonlinear functions
Model representation of the coupling between evapotranspiration and soil water content at different depths
Combined impacts of ENSO and MJO on the 2015 growing season drought on the Canadian Prairies
Exploring the relationships between warm-season precipitation, potential evaporation, and “apparent” potential evaporation at site scale
Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event
Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina
Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China
Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow
A gain–loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage–wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods
The residence time of water in the atmosphere revisited
A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom
From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators
Impact of two different types of El Niño events on runoff over the conterminous United States
Flood sensitivity of the Bavarian Alpine Foreland since the late Middle Ages in the context of internal and external climate forcing factors
Novel indices for the comparison of precipitation extremes and floods: an example from the Czech territory
Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year
Fractional snow-covered area parameterization over complex topography
Comment on "Technical Note: On the Matt–Shuttleworth approach to estimate crop water requirements" by Lhomme et al. (2014)
A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective
Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere
Continental moisture recycling as a Poisson process
Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification
Impact of elevation and weather patterns on the isotopic composition of precipitation in a tropical montane rainforest
A new perspective on the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture: temporal dynamics versus time-invariant contributions
Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling Basin for natural resources management
An analytical model for soil-atmosphere feedback
Spatial horizontal correlation characteristics in the land data assimilation of soil moisture
On the factors influencing surface-layer energy closure and their seasonal variability over the semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China
Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response
Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands
The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Copula-based downscaling of spatial rainfall: a proof of concept
Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia – preliminary insights into the "Big Dry"
Yi Liu, Zhimin Wang, Xinyu Zhang, Ye Zhu, Liliang Ren, Shanshui Yuan, and Junliang Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-199, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
A new drought characteristic, i.e., the duration of drought onset is proposed to depict how rapid drought develops. The roles of pre-drought and post-drought high temperatures on drought onset are quantified. High temperatures behave differently among areas with different vegetation conditions.
Lu Tian, Markus Disse, and Jingshui Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4115–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4115-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4115-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic global warming accelerates the drought evolution in the water cycle, increasing the unpredictability of drought. The evolution of drought is stealthy and challenging to track. This study proposes a new framework to capture the high-precision spatiotemporal progression of drought events in their evolutionary processes and characterize their feature further. It is crucial for addressing the systemic risks within the hydrological cycle associated with drought mitigation.
Richard D. Crago, Jozsef Szilagyi, and Russell J. Qualls
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3205–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Priestley–Taylor equation is widely used in hydrologic, climate, and meteorological models to estimate evaporation. α represents the impact of dry air that is carried into the region; this occurs even in extensive saturated regions. Four hypotheses regarding the nature of α are evaluated. Data from 171 FLUXNET stations were used to test the hypotheses. The best-supported hypothesis sees α as a constant fraction of the distance between theoretical minimum and maximum values.
Eunkyo Seo and Paul A. Dirmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5411–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the climatology of the observed land–atmosphere interactions on a subdaily timescale during the warm season from flux site observations. Multivariate metrics are employed to examine the land, atmosphere, and combined couplings, and a mixing diagram is adopted to understand the coevolution of the moist and thermal energy budget within the atmospheric mixed layer. The diurnal cycles of both mixing diagrams and hourly land–atmosphere couplings exhibit hysteresis.
Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Subimal Ghosh, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4431–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The observed response of extreme precipitation to global warming remains unclear with significant regional variations. We show that a large part of this uncertainty can be removed when the imprint of clouds in surface temperatures is removed. We used a thermodynamic systems approach to remove the cloud radiative effect from temperatures. We then found that precipitation extremes intensified with global warming at positive rates which is consistent with physical arguments and model simulations.
Yongwei Liu, Yuanbo Liu, Wen Wang, Han Zhou, and Lide Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3825–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the wetting and drying of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from variations in soil moisture (SM) droughts. We found the TP experienced an abrupt and significant wetting shift in the middle to late 1990s, not merely the steady trends given in literature. This shift is dominated by precipitation and attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The wetting shift indicates a climate regime change. Our innovative work provides implications for further knowledge of the TP climate.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
Mario Marcello Miglietta and Silvio Davolio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The main results emerging from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign and in the subsequent research activity in three Italian target areas are highlighted through conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant mesoscale environmental characteristics conducive to heavy rain events.
Tao Xu, Hongxi Pang, Zhaojun Zhan, Wangbin Zhang, Huiwen Guo, Shuangye Wu, and Shugui Hou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 117–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we presented stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and precipitation for five extreme winter precipitation events in Nanjing, southeastern China, from December 2018 to February 2019. Our results imply that multiple moisture sources and the rapid shift among them are important conditions for sustaining extreme precipitation events, especially in the relatively cold and dry winter.
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Yeonuk Kim, Monica Garcia, Laura Morillas, Ulrich Weber, T. Andrew Black, and Mark S. Johnson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5175–5191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present a novel physically based evaporation model to demonstrate that vertical relative humidity (RH) gradients from the land surface to the atmosphere tend to evolve towards zero due to land–atmosphere equilibration processes. Collapsing RH gradients on daily to yearly timescales indicate an emergent land–atmosphere equilibrium, making it possible to determine evapotranspiration using only meteorological information, independent of land surface conditions and vegetation controls.
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4061–4080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Tao Gao, Fuqiang Cao, Li Dan, Ming Li, Xiang Gong, and Junjie Zhan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1467–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rainfall in eastern China is principally concentrated from April–September. Changes are roughly coincident with phase shifts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both the dry (October–March) and wet (April–September) seasons, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) triggers a stronger effect on precipitation in the wet season. The interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability over eastern China is substantially modulated by drivers originating from the Pacific Ocean.
Mahmoud Osman, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, and Martha C. Anderson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study of flash droughts' definitions over the United States shows that published definitions yield markedly different inventories of flash drought geography and frequency. Results suggest there are several pathways that can lead to events that are characterized as flash droughts. Lack of consensus across definitions helps to explain apparent contradictions in the literature on trends and indicates the selection of a definition is important for accurate monitoring of different mechanisms.
Justin Schulte, Frederick Policielli, and Benjamin Zaitchik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5473–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wavelet coherence is now a commonly used method for detecting scale-dependent relationships between time series. In this study, the concept of wavelet coherence is generalized to higher-order wavelet coherence methods that quantify the relationship between higher-order statistical moments associated with two time series. The methods are applied to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon to show that the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship is impacted by ENSO nonlinearity.
Annu Panwar, Maik Renner, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we examine the effect of evaporative cooling across different vegetation types. Evaporation cools surface temperature significantly in short vegetation. In the forest, the high aerodynamic conductance explains 56 % of the reduced surface temperature. Therefore, the main cooling agent in the forest is the high aerodynamic conductance and not evaporation. Additionally, we propose the diurnal variation in surface temperature as being a potential indicator of evaporation in short vegetation.
Patrick Pieper, André Düsterhus, and Johanna Baehr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4541–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely accepted drought index. SPI normalizes the precipitation distribution via a probability density function (PDF). However, which PDF properly normalizes SPI is still disputed. We suggest using a previously mostly overlooked PDF, namely the exponentiated Weibull distribution. The proposed PDF ensures the normality of the index. We demonstrate this – for the first time – for all common accumulation periods in both observations and simulations.
Songjun Han and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2269–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The complementary principle is an important methodology for estimating actual evaporation by using routinely observed meteorological variables. This review summaries its 56-year development, focusing on how related studies have shifted from adopting a symmetric linear complementary relationship to employing generalized nonlinear functions. We also compare the polynomial and sigmoid types of generalized complementary functions and discuss their future development.
Jianxiu Qiu, Wade T. Crow, Jianzhi Dong, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 581–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately estimating coupling of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water content (θ) at different depths is key to investigating land–atmosphere interaction. Here we examine whether the model can accurately represent surface θ (θs) versus ET coupling and vertically integrated θ (θv) versus ET coupling. We find that all models agree with observations that θs contains slightly more information with fPET than θv. In addition, an ET scheme is crucial for accurately estimating coupling of θ and ET.
Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, Barrie Bonsal, Alan H. Manson, and Lucia Scaff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5057–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The research started by investigating the 2015 growing season drought over the Canadian Prairies and evolved into investigating the connection between growing season rain deficit in the Prairies and MJO (20–90 days tropical oscillation in convective storms). With warm central Pacific sea surface temperature, strong MJOs in the western Pacific cause Rossby wave trains that propagate downstream and favour upper-level ridges and rain deficits over the Canadian Prairies during the growing season.
Xi Chen and Steven G. Buchberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4535–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on warm season data from 259 weather stations across the US, we analyze the correlation between precipitation, potential evaporation, and “apparent” potential evaporation (measured by pan evaporation). Over 93 % of the stations show negative correlation between precipitation and
apparentpotential evaporation, but no clear relationship is shown between precipitation and potential evaporation. The collected data points follow the trend of the newly derived Bouchet–Budyko curve.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Miguel A. Lovino, Omar V. Müller, Gabriela V. Müller, Leandro C. Sgroi, and Walter E. Baethgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines hydroclimate variability in northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of its links with global SST forcing; and discusses its impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. Interannual-to-multidecadal variability led to frequent extreme events. Severe floods affected agriculture, livestock productivity, and forced population displacements. Droughts affected water resources, causing water and food scarcity. Increased temperatures reduced crop yields.
Qing Cao, Zhenchun Hao, Feifei Yuan, Zhenkuan Su, Ronny Berndtsson, Jie Hao, and Tsring Nyima
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5415–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzed the rainy-season precipitation in China influenced by various ENSO types. The precipitation anomalies were investigated under different ENSO types, which may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. The results improve the understanding of linkages between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns. The results suggest a certain predictability of flood and drought related to different ENSO types.
Chia-Jeng Chen and Tsung-Yu Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3463–3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Regional hydro-climatic variables are modulated by large-scale, reoccurring climate oscillations. In this article, the authors provide both statistical and physical evidence of how Taiwan’s summertime streamflow is strongly correlated with specific teleconnection patterns dominating cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific. However, such correlation can be strengthened or weakened by notable climate regime shifts, illustrating the pitfall of empirical seasonal forecasting.
Vianney Courdent, Morten Grum, Thomas Munk-Nielsen, and Peter S. Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2531–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Urban drainage and wastewater systems are heavily impacted by precipitation. Hence, weather forecasts are valuable in improving their management. However, forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, especially when fine model resolution is required, which is the case for urban hydrology. Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers. This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial.
Ruud J. van der Ent and Obbe A. Tuinenburg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 779–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This research seeks out to answer a fundamental question about the functioning of the water cycle in the atmosphere: how much time does a water particle spend in the atmosphere? Based on state-of-the-art data, we derive a global average residence time of water in the atmosphere of 8–10 days. We further show in this paper how the residence time of water varies in time and space. This serves to illustrate why it is so difficult to make weather predictions on timescales longer than a week.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Andrew Chiverton, and Cecilia Svensson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Standardised meteorological indicators are widely used in drought monitoring, but applications to hydrological drought are less extensive. Here we assess the utility of standardised indicators for characterising drought duration, severity and propagation in a diverse set of 121 UK catchments. Spatial variations in streamflow drought characteristics reflect differences in drought propagation behaviour that are themselves largely driven by heterogeneity in catchment properties around the UK.
T. Tang, W. Li, and G. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, 2016
O. Böhm, J. Jacobeit, R. Glaser, and K.-F. Wetzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4721–4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, 2015
M. Müller, M. Kašpar, A. Valeriánová, L. Crhová, E. Holtanová, and B. Gvoždíková
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4641–4652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three proposed indices combine return periods of precipitation totals or discharges with the size of the affected area. Precipitation indices also determine actual duration of either extreme or seasonally abnormal precipitation events. A unified design of the indices enables one to easily compare inter-annual and seasonal distributions of events, which is demonstrated by 50 maximum events in the Czech Republic during the period 1961-2010, including the June 2013 floods.
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
N. Helbig, A. van Herwijnen, J. Magnusson, and T. Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1339–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, 2015
W. J. Shuttleworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4403–4406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explains the Matt-Shuttleworth approach clearly, simply and concisely. It shows how this approach can be implemented using a few simple equations and provides access to ancillary calculation resources that can be used for such implementation. If the crop water requirement community considered it preferable to use the Penman-Monteith equation to estimate crop water requirements directly for all crops, this could now be done using the Matt-Shuttleworth approach.
I. Masih, S. Maskey, F. E. F. Mussá, and P. Trambauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, 2014
D. C. Verdon-Kidd and A. S. Kiem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2257–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, 2014
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, 2013
P. Brigode, Z. Mićović, P. Bernardara, E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1455–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013, 2013
D. Windhorst, T. Waltz, E. Timbe, H.-G. Frede, and L. Breuer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 409–419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-409-2013, 2013
H. Mittelbach and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2169-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2169-2012, 2012
A. J. E. Gallant, A. S. Kiem, D. C. Verdon-Kidd, R. C. Stone, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2049–2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2049-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2049-2012, 2012
B. Schaefli, R. J. van der Ent, R. Woods, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1863–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1863-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1863-2012, 2012
X. Han, X. Li, H. J. Hendricks Franssen, H. Vereecken, and C. Montzka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1349–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1349-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1349-2012, 2012
X. Xiao, H. C. Zuo, Q. D. Yang, S. J. Wang, L. J. Wang, J. W. Chen, B. L. Chen, and B. D. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 893–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-893-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-893-2012, 2012
D. Zoccatelli, M. Borga, A. Viglione, G. B. Chirico, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3767–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3767-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3767-2011, 2011
G. Lenderink, H. Y. Mok, T. C. Lee, and G. J. van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3033–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011, 2011
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, J. I. López-Moreno, J. C. González-Hidalgo, and E. Morán-Tejeda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2581–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2581-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2581-2011, 2011
M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1445–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1445-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1445-2011, 2011
A. S. Kiem and D. C. Verdon-Kidd
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 433–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-433-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-433-2010, 2010
Cited articles
Afrooz, A. H., Akbari, H., Rakhshandehroo, G. R., and Pourtouiserkani, A.: Climate change impact on probable maximum precipitation in Chenar-Rahdar River basin, Water Manag., 36–47, https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479322.004, 2015.
Afzali-Gorouh, Z., Faridhosseini, A., Bakhtiari, B., Mosaedi, A., and Salehnia, N.: Monitoring and projection of climate change impact on 24 h probable maximum precipitation in the Southeast of Caspian Sea, Nat. Hazards, 114, 77–99, 2022.
Beauchamp, J., Leconte, R., Trudel, M., and Brissette, F.: Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate, Water Resour. Res., 49, 3852–3862, 2011.
Berg, A. M., Lintner, B. R., Findell, K. L., Malyshev, S., Loikith, P. C., and Gentine, P.: Impact of soil moisture-atmosphere interactions on surface temperature distribution, J. Climate, 27, 7976–7993, 2014.
Casas, M. C., Rodríguez, R., Nieto, R., and Redano, A.: The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: the case of Catalonia, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1146, 291–302, 2008.
Chow, V. T.: A general formula for hydrologic frequency analysis, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 32, 231–237, https://doi.org/10.1029/TR032i002p00231, 1951.
de Winter, R. C., Sterl, A., and Ruessink, B. G.: Wind extremes in the North Sea basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1601–1612, 2013.
Devitt, L., Neal, J., Coxon, G., Savage, J., and Wagener, T.: Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns, Nat. Commun., 14, 2801, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38297-9, 2023.
Diro, G. T., Sushama, L., Martynov, A., Jeong, D. I., Verseghy, D., and Winger, K.: Land-atmosphere coupling over North America in CRCM5, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 11955–11972, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021677, 2014.
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O'Gorman, P. A., and Maher, N.: More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 508–513, 2016.
Dong, T. and Dong, W.: Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation over Asia in CMIP6 Models, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1751–1769, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05773-1, 2021.
Ekpetere, K. J.: Possibilities and limitations of IMERG Datasets for estimating probable maximum precipitation, University of Kansas, https://www.proquest.com/docview/2598679626?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true (last access: 17 April 2024), 2021.
Ekpetere, K., Coll, J., Li, X., Kastens, J., and Mechem, D. B.: Global Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) datasets, HydroShare [data set], http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/9bed05f68ad444e8ad371d9db001007a (last access: 17 April 2024), 2023.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
General Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Planning and Design (GIWCHPD): Ministry of Water Resources Compilation of hydrological calculations of national large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects, Beijing, 1982.
General Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Planning and Design (GIWCHPD): Ministry of Water Resources Compilation of hydrological calculations of national large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects, Beijing, 1990.
General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design (GIWRHPD): Ministry of Water Resources, and Water Resources Protection Bureau of the Yangtze River Basin: Regulations for the compilation of water resources protection planning, SL 613-2013, China Water Resources and Hydropower Press, Beijing, 2013.
Gimeno, L., Vazquez, M., Eiras-Barca, J., Sorí, R., Algarra, I., and Nieto, R.: Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice, WIREs Clim. Change, 10, e588, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.588, 2019.
Gu, X., Ye, L., Xin, Q., Zhang, C., Zeng, F., Nerantzaki, S. D., and Papalexiou, S. M.: Extreme precipitation in China: a review, Adv. Water Resour., 163, 104144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104144, 2022.
Guerreiro, S. B., Fowler, H. J., Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G., Blenkinsop, S., Lewis, E., and Li, X.-F.: Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 803–807, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3, 2018.
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
Han, L., Wang, L., Chen, H., Xu, Y., Sun, F., Reed, K., Deng, X., and Li, W.: Impacts of long-term urbanization on summer rainfall climatology in Yangtze River Delta agglomeration of China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097546, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097546, 2022.
Hansen, E. M.: Probable maximum precipitation for design floods in the United States, J. Hydrol., 96, 267–278, 1987.
He, J., Yang, K., Tang, W., Lu, H., Qin, J., Chen, Y., and Li, X.: The first high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset for land process studies over China, Sci. Data, 7, 25, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0369-y, 2020.
Herbst, L. and Lalk, J.: A case study of climate variability effects on wind resources in South Africa, J. Energy South Afr, 25, 2–10, 2014.
Hershfield, D. M.: Estimating the probable maximum precipitation, J. Hydr. Eng. Div.-ASCE, 87, 99–116, 1961.
Hershfield, D. M.: Method for estimating probable maximum rainfall, J. Am. Water Works Ass., 57, 965–972, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1965.tb01486.x, 1965.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
Hiraga, Y., Iseri, Y., Warner, M. D., Frans, C. D., Duren, A. M., England, J. F., and Kavvas, M. L.: Estimation of long-duration maximum precipitation during a winter season for large basins dominated by atmospheric rivers using a numerical weather model, J. Hydrol., 598, 126224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126224, 2021.
Huang, X. Y., and Stevenson, S.: Contributions of climate change and ENSO variability to future precipitation extremes over California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103322, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103322, 2023.
Jakob, D., Smalley, R., Meighen, J., Xuereb, K. C., and Taylor, B. F.: Climate change and probable maximum precipitation, HRS Report no. 12, Hydrology Report Series, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2009.
Jia, Q., Jia, H., Li, Y., and Yin, D.: Applicability of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in China: reproducibility of historical simulation and uncertainty of future projection, J. Climate, 36, 5809–5824, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0375.1, 2023.
Kendon, E. J., Ban, N., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., Evans, J. P., Fosser, G., and Wilkinson, J. M.: Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 79–93, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1, 2017.
Kenyon, J. and Hegerl, G. C.: Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 23, 6248–6262, 2010.
Kim, S., Sharma, A., Wasko, C., and Nathan, R.: Linking total precipitable water to precipitation extremes globally, Earths Future, 10, e2021EF002473, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002473, 2022.
Koster, R. D., Dirmeyer, P. A., Guo, Z., Bonan, G., Chan, E., Cox, P., Gordon, C. T., Kanae, S., Kowalczyk, E., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Lu, C. H., Malyshev, S., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, K., Mocko, D., Oki, T., Oleson, K., Pitman, A., Sud, Y. C., Taylor, C. M., Verseghy, D., Vasic, R., Xue, Y. K., and Yamada, T.: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation, Science, 305, 1138–1140, 2004.
Kunkel, K. E., Karl, T. R., Easterling, D. R., Redmond, K., Young, J., Yin, X. G., and Hennon, P.: Probable maximum precipitation and climate change, Geophys Res. Lett., 40, 1402–1408, 2013.
Lan, P., Lin, B., Zhang, Y., and Chen, H.: Probable maximum precipitation estimation using the revised value method in Hong Kong, J. Hydrol. Eng., 22, 05017008, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001517, 2017.
Lee, O. and Kim, S.: Future PMPs projection under future dew point temperature variation of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig., 16, 505–514, 2016.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörömsmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., Nilsson, C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.: High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502, https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011a.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., and Nilsson, C.: High-resolution mapping of the world’s reservoirs and dams for sustainable river-flow management, Global Dam Watch [data set], https://ln.sync.com/dl/bd47eb6b0/anhxaikr-62pmrgtq-k44xf84f-pyz4atkm/view/default/447819520013, (last access: 18 April 2024), 2011b.
Liao, Y., Lin, B., Chen, X., and Ding, H.: A new look at storm separation technique in estimation of probable maximum precipitation in mountainous areas, Water, 12, 1177, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041177, 2020.
Lin, B. Z.: Application of statistical estimation in study of probable maximum precipitation, Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 1, 52–63, 1981.
Liu, B. J., Tan, X. Z., Gan, T. Y., Chen, X. H., Liu, K. R., Lu, M. Q., and Liu, Z. Y.: Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mechanisms and climate change impacts, WIREs Water, 7, e1412, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1412, 2020.
Liu, T., Liang, Z., Chen, Y., Lei, X., and Li, B.: Long-duration PMP and PMF estimation with SWAT model for the sparsely gauged Upper Nujiang River Basin, Nat. Hazards, 90, 735–755, 2018.
Lorenz, R., Argüeso, D., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., van den Hurk, B., Berg, A., Lawrence, D. M., Chéruy, F., Ducharne, A., Hagemann, S., Meier, A., Milly, P. C. D., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 607–623, 2016.
Loriaux, J. M., Lenderink, G., and Siebesma, A. P.: Large-scale controls on extreme precipitation, J. Climate, 30, 955–968, 2016.
Luo, P. P., Mu, D. R., Xue, H., Ngo-Duc, T., Dang-Dinh, K., Takara, K., Nover, D., and Schladow, G.: Flood inundation assessment for the Hanoi Central Area, Vietnam under historical and extreme rainfall conditions, Sci. Rep., 8, 12623, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30024-5, 2018.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
Martinez-Villalobos, C. and Neelin, J. D.: Shifts in precipitation accumulation extremes during the warm season over the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8586–8595, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078465, 2018.
Monjo, R., Locatelli, L., Milligan, J., Torres, L., Velasco, M., Gaitán, M., Pórtoles, J, Redolat, D., Russo, B., and Ribalaygua, J.: Estimation of future extreme rainfall in Barcelona (Spain) under monofractal hypothesis, Int. J. Climatol., 43, 4047–4068, 2023.
Mudd, L., Wang, Y., Letchford, C., and Rosowsky, D.: Assessing climate change impact on the US east coast hurricane hazard: temperature, frequency, and track, Nat. Hazards Rev., 15, 04014001, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000128, 2014.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Papalexiou, S. M. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: A probabilistic approach to the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation, Adv. Geosci., 7, 51–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-51-2006, 2006.
Papalexiou, S. M., Dialynas, Y. G., and Grimaldi, S.: Hershfield factor revisited: correcting annual maximum precipitation, J. Hydrol., 542, 884–895, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.058, 2016.
Park, M., Park, M. J., Kim, S., and Joo, J.: Extreme storm estimation by climate change using precipitable water, J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig., 13, 121–127, 2013.
Piao, S. L., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z. B., Peng, S. B., Li, J. B., Zhou, L. P., Liu, H. Y., Ma, Y. C., Ding, Y. H., Friedlingstein, P., Liu, C. Z., Tan, K., Yu, Y. Q., Zhang, T. Y., and Fang, J. Y.: The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China, Nature, 467, 43–51, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364, 2010.
Qiao, L., Zuo, Z., Zhang, R., Piao, S. L., Xiao, D., and Zhang, K. W.: Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming, Nat. Commun., 14, 4908, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y, 2023.
Qin, R. and Zhang, F.: HRLT: A high-resolution (1 day, 1 km) and long-term (1961–2019) gridded dataset for temperature and precipitation across China [dataset], PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.941329, 2022.
Qin, R., Zhao, Z., Xu, J., Ye, J.-S., Li, F.-M., and Zhang, F.: HRLT: a high-resolution (1 d, 1 km) and long-term (1961–2019) gridded dataset for surface temperature and precipitation across China, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4793–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4793-2022, 2022.
Rajulapati, C. R., Papalexiou, S. M., Clark, M. P., Razavi, S., Tang, G., and Pomeroy, J. W.: Assessment of extremes in global precipitation products: How reliable are they?, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 2855–2873, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0040.1, 2020.
Rajulapati, C. R., Papalexiou, S. M., Clark, M. P., and Pomeroy, J. W.: The Perils of Regridding: Examples Using a Global Precipitation Dataset, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 60, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0259.1, 2021.
Rastogi, D., Kao, S. C., Ashfaq, M., Mei, R., Kabela, E. D., Gangrade, S., Naz, N. S., Preston, B. L., Singh, N., and Anantharaj, V. G.: Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 4808–4828, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd026001, 2017.
Richter, I. and Xie, S. P.: Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin and its response to North Atlantic cooling and global warming, Clim. Dynam., 35, 551–566, 2010.
Rouhani, H. and Leconte, R.: A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output, Water Resour. Res., 52, 7347–7365, 2016.
Rousseau, A. N., Klein, I. M., Freudiger, D., Gagnon, P., Frigon, A., and Ratte-Fortin, C.: Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada, J. Hydrol., 519, 3094–3109, 2014.
Salas, J. D. and Obeysekera, J.: Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk under non-stationary conditions, J. Hydrol. Eng., 19, 554–568, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000820, 2014.
Salas, J. D., Anderson, M. L., Papalexiou, S. M., and Frances, F.: PMP and climate variability and change: A review, J. Hydrol. Eng., 25, 03120002, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002003, 2020.
Sarkar, S. and Maity, R.: Increase in probable maximum precipitation in a changing climate over India, J. Hydrol., 585, 124806, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124806, 2020.
Sarkar, S. and Maity, R.: Global climate shift in 1970s causes a significant worldwide increase in precipitation extremes, Sci. Rep., 11, 11574, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90854-8, 2021.
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: a review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, 2010.
Shi, C., Jiang, L., Zhang, T., Xu, B., and Han, S.: Status and plans of CMA Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) Project, Geophys. Res. Abstr., EGU2014-5671, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria, 2014.
Song, C., Fan, C., Zhu, J., Wang, J., Sheng, Y., Liu, K., Chen, T., Zhan, P., Luo, S., Yuan, C., and Ke, L.: A comprehensive geospatial database of nearly 100 000 reservoirs in China, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4017–4034, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4017-2022, 2022.
Sun, Q., Miao, C., and Duan, Q.: Changes in the spatial heterogeneity and annual distribution of observed precipitation across China, J. Climate, 30, 9399–9416, 2017.
Svensson, C. and Rakhecha, P. R.: Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for dams in the Hongru river catchment, China, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 59, 79–91, 1998.
Tang, G., Clark, M. P., Papalexiou, S. M., Ma, Z., and Hong, Y.: Have satellite precipitation products improved over last two decades? A comprehensive comparison of GPM IMERG with nine satellite and reanalysis datasets, Remote Sens. Environ., 240, 111697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111697, 2020.
Tang, G. A.: Digital elevation model of China (1KM), A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles, https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/12e91073-0181-44bf-8308-c50e5bd9a734/ (last access: 18 April 2024), 2019.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The changing character of precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1217, 2003.
van den Hurk, B., Kim, H., Krinner, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Derksen, C., Oki, T., Douville, H., Colin, J., Ducharne, A., Cheruy, F., Viovy, N., Puma, M. J., Wada, Y., Li, W., Jia, B., Alessandri, A., Lawrence, D. M., Weedon, G. P., Ellis, R., Hagemann, S., Mao, J., Flanner, M. G., Zampieri, M., Materia, S., Law, R. M., and Sheffield, J.: LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016.
van Dilke, A. J. H., Herold, M., Mallick, K., Benedict, I., Machwitz, M., Schlerf, M., Pranindita, A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., Bastin, J. F., and Teuling, A. J.: Shifts in regional water availability due to global tree restoration, Nat. Geosci., 15, 363–368, 2022.
Visser, J. B., Kim, S., Wasko, C., Nathan, R., and Sharma, A.: The impact of climate change on operational probable maximum precipitation estimates, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR032247, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032247, 2022.
Wang, G. A.: Principles and methods of PMP/PMF calculations, China Water Power Press and Yellow River Water Resources Publishing House, Beijing, ISBN 7806213236, 1999.
Wang, J. Q.: Rainstorms in China, China Water & Power Press, Beijing, ISBN 9787508405605, 2002.
WCRP: CMIP6, WCRP [data set], https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/, last access: 18 April 2024.
Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F. P., Bouwman, A., Jongman, B., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Ligtvoet, W., Lucas, P. L., van Vuuren, D. P., and Ward, P. J.: Global drivers of future river flood risk, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 381–385, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2893, 2016.
Working Committee of Natural Regionalization, Chinese Academy of Sciences (WCNR): Climate regionalization in China, Science Press, Beijing, ISBN 12031⋅66, 1959.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Manual on estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP), WMO-No. 1045, 1–7, ISBN 978-926-3101045-9, 2009.
Wu, S. T., Wei, Z. G., Li, X. R., and Ma, L.: Land-atmosphere coupling effects of soil temperature and moisture on extreme precipitation in the arid regions of Northwest China, Front. Earth Sci., 10, 1079131, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1079131, 2023.
Wu, W., Ren, L., Wei, Y., and Guo, M.: Impacts of urbanization on extreme regional precipitation events, Discrete Dyn. Nat. Soc., 17, 2210184, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/2210184, 2021.
Xiong, J. H., Wang, Z. L., Lai, C. G., and Liao, Y. X.: Spatiotemporal variability of sunshine duration and influential climatic factors in mainland China during 1959–2017, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 6282–6300, 2020.
Yang, Y., Tang, G., Lei, X., Hong, Y., and Yang, N.: Can satellite precipitation products estimate probable maximum precipitation: a comparative investigation with gauge data in the Dadu River basin, Remote Sens.-Basel, 10, 41, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10010041, 2018.
Yin, J. B., Guo, S. L., Gu, L., Yang, G., Wang, J., and Yang, Y.: Thermodynamic response of precipitation extremes to climate change and its impacts on floods over China, Chinese Sci. Bull., 66, 4315–4325, 2021 (in Chinese).
Yin, J. B., Guo, S. L., Wang, J., Chen, J., Zhang, Q., Gu, L., Yang, Y., Tian, J., Xiong, L. H., and Zhang, Y.: Thermodynamic driving mechanisms for the formation of global precipitation extremes and ecohydrological effects, Sci. China Earth Sci., 66, 92–110, 2023.
Zhao, W., Kinouchi, T., Ang, R., Zhuang, Q., and Zhuang, Q.: A framework for quantifying climate-informed heavy rainfall change: Implications for adaptation strategies, Sci. Total Environ., 835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155553, 2022.
Zhao, W., Abhishek, Takhellambam, B. S., Zhang, J., Zhao, Y., and Kinouchi, T.: Spatiotemporal variability of current and future sub-daily rainfall in Japan using state-of-the-art high-quality data sets, Water Resour. Res., 59, e2022WR034305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR034305, 2023.
Zhao, Y. and Zhu, J.: Accuracy and evaluation of precipitation grid daily data sets in China in recent 50 years, Plateau Meteorology, 34, 50–58, 2015.
Zheng, Y., Kumar, A., and Niyogi, D.: Impacts of land–atmosphere coupling on regional rainfall and convection, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2383–2409, 2015.
Zhou, S., Williams, A. P., Berg, A. M., Cook, B. I., Zhang, Y., Hagemann, S., Lorenz, R., Seneviratne, S., and Gentine, P.: Land–atmosphere feedbacks exacerbate concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 18848–18853, 2019.
Zhou, S., Williams, A. P., Lintner, B. R., Findell, K. L., Keenan, T. F., Zhang, Y., and Gentine, P.: Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks, Nat. Commun., 13, 5756, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9, 2022.
Zhou, Y., Liang, Z., Hu, Y., Li, D., Liu, T., and Lei, X.: An improved moisture and wind maximization method for probable maximum precipitation estimation and its application to a small catchment in China, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 2624–2638, 2020.
Zhu, H., Jiang, Z., Li, J., Li, W., Sun, C., and Li, L.: Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China?, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1119–1132, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1, 2020.
Short summary
Temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of climate systems challenge accurate estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in China. We use high-resolution precipitation data and climate models to explore the variability, trends, and shifts of PMP under climate change. Validated with multi-source estimations, our observations and simulations show significant spatiotemporal divergence of PMP over the country, which is projected to amplify in future due to land–atmosphere coupling.
Temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of climate systems challenge accurate estimation...
